NCAAF Race to Make CFP Cut of 12 is On

In NCAAF Week 7 on the most impressive schedule of the DI season, we saw five of the top seven teams in the 2026 NCAAF AP Top 25 rankings being upset as #1 Georgia (Auburn), #2 Notre Dame (BYU), #5 Indiana (Ohio State), #6 Alabama (Tennessee), and #7 Texas (Florida) all lost.​

This annual October turn of events left Miami as the new #1 after preseason #1 Ohio State lost at Texas, making the Longhorns #1 before they were exposed, giving another SEC team, Georgia, the top spot for a spell. The undefeated Hurricanes (6-0) will face ND next weekend (November 7).​

All of these upsets mean schools like #7 Ole Miss, #15 UCLA, and #16 Iowa have a shot to make the 12-team 2026-27 College Football Playoff (CFP), which will see its first unveiling this Tuesday, November 3 (ESPN, 7 EST/6 CST/4 PST), the same day as the Midterm Elections, of course.​

ESPN will air updated CFP rankings Tuesdays through December—November 10 (Week 2), November 17 (Week 3), November 24 (Week 3), December 1 (Week 4)—before the 13-member CFP Selection Committee delivers the final 12 on Final Selection Day on Sunday, December 6.​

After expanding from 4 teams to 12 in 2024, the CFP has a handshake deal with ESPN to double the dozen to 24 teams as early as next year, Pete Thamel reported. This is huge for two reasons: First, more schools get a shot. Second, Power 4 conference championship games would go away.​

No SEC, Big 12, ACC, or Big Ten Championship games would mean losing four great games that teams earned through winning during the regular season, as well as the lucrative paydays and great memories the host cities provided with those for-now bowl games.​

Back to this season. Teams like Texas, Notre Dame, and Georgia are worrying now more than they thought they would have to while unbeaten schools outside the Power 4 like Boise State (6-1) #20 Northwestern (6-1) and Wake Forest (6-1) all have a pulse.

The CFP winner will no doubt come from a Power 4 heavyweight, and WR Malachi Toney and top-ranked Miami, WR Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State, QB Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss, Indiana, BYU, and Utah looked like the strongest teams heading into Week 8 last weekend.

Indiana ran the table last year, winning the 2025 CFP National Championship as 2025 Heisman Trophy winner and now Las Vegas Raiders backup QB Fernando Mendoza brought the Hoosiers their first national title in a sport the school long suffered in before Curt Cignetti arrived.​

Indiana (6-1) is one of the teams that can become the 2026 CFP National Champion, and looking at the Polymarket International NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion winner market, we see a wide-open race where maybe 12 could win with insane volume ($1,101,939 on October 21).

Despite losing to Auburn and falling from the #1 spot after NCAAF Week 7, Miami (16%) was the slight choice of traders, followed by Georgia (15%), CJ Carr and Notre Dame (15%), Ohio State (14%), defending national champions Indiana (8%), LSU (6%), and Arch Manning and Texas (6%).​

The longer shots in this futures market are Alabama (5%), Ole Miss (3%), Florida (1%), Oklahoma (1%), Texas Tech (1%), and USC (1%).​

📊Trading Thoughts: The ACC (Miami), Big Ten (Ohio State, Indiana, UCLA), SEC (Ole Miss, Georgia), and Big 12 (BYU, Utah) all have teams that could win the national championship, and Independent Notre Dame is also in the picture. I am very high on the UCLA Bruins this season.

When we do have 24 teams in this tournament, it will be even harder to peg the winner, and the volume will again be beyond a billion USD at Polymarket International. People love betting and trading football, amateur and pro, if the college kids are still considered amateur athletes?

Before the first snap of the season, we predicted an Indiana-Miami in the 2026 CFP Championship Game, and this is still in the cards. Despite the loss at Texas, Ohio State looks like the best team right now, but an underdog like Ole Miss, BYU, Utah, or UCLA may be a great buy right about now.

🏈 NCAAF: 2027 National Champion Winner Picks: Miami 16.1¢, Indiana 7.6¢

On Monday, October 19, the world’s first trillionaire, Elon Musk, posted on Twitter that he intends to give every child in the United States a share of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), adding it “will be the first of many.” Forbes now has Musk’s net worth at $943.9 billion.​

The tweet came the same day AI company Anthropic announced it would commit 5% of the company’s shares to a new “public benefit” fund. A philanthropy war in 2026? Musk had no further details on how or when these stock shares and public gifts may come to fruition.​

​Besides SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), X (Twitter), and Anthropic, the 55-year-old industrialist from South Africa co-founded four other companies: electric carmaker Tesla, AI startup xAI, tunneling company The Boring Company, and neurotech company Neuralink.​

Musk is the largest shareholder in SpaceX, holding a 10.5% stake as the CRM (Chief Rocket Man) for the Texas-based company, including a 4.8-billion-share stake when the company offered its historic record-setting IPO this summer, helping Musk rocket past the trillion USD net worth level.​

On Saturday afternoon (Peacock. 3:30 EST/2:30 CST/12:30 PST), #20 Northwestern (6-1, 2-1 Big Ten) has a date with QB Dante Moore and Oregon (4-3, 2-3 in Big Ten) at Autzen Stadium (FieldTurf) with the game now meaning much more to the rising Purple Cats.​

After losing to Illinois, the Ducks are now out of the CFP race before Halloween, with the earlier losses to Oklahoma State and UCLA starting the slide. And it has been quite the season for Wildcats football, with a new stadium (Ryan Field) in Evanston and a new QB (Aidan Chiles).​

In the Northwestern vs. Oregon winner exchange at Polymarket International, Oregon (61%) is favored over Northwestern (39%). Online sportsbook DraftKings makes host Oregon a 3.5-point favorite with the Total at 48.5 (ORE -175, NU +145) for the Halloween kick or cleat.​

📊Trading Thoughts: The Cats lost both West trips in the newlook Big Ten, at Washington (24-5) in 2024, and at USC (38-17) in 2025. NU will deal with travel, a 2-hour time difference—the night the clocks fall back—an unfamiliar stadium, and maybe all-black Halloween uniforms for the hosts.

The Wildcats have played Oregon only once since the Ducks, Washington, UCLA, and USC entered the Big Ten, with Oregon winning in Evanston by 20 points (34-14) in 2025 but losing ATS as 24.5-point chalk at Northwestern Medical Field. The game went Under by 1.5 points (49.5).

A loss here for Oregon means CFP death, and the Ducks are a dominating 32-3 at Autzen this decade, losing to rivals Washington (2022), eventual national champions Indiana last season (2025), and to upstart Oklahoma State this season, exposing some warts. Do ducks get warts?

🏈 NCAAF Saturday Side Pick: Oregon -3.5

One of the biggest fights of 2026 comes this weekend with the WBC Super Middleweight Championship between Saul Canelo Álvarez and Christian M’billi from The Venue/Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Saturday night (DAZN PPV, 9:30 EDT/8:30 CDT/6:30 PDT).​

As part of the Riyadh Season. “Mexico vs. The World,” 36-year-old Mexican legend Álvarez will lace up the gloves against the 31-year-old Nigerian M’Billi, who has Canadian, Cameroonian, and French citizenship and will be making his first title defense in this much-anticipated bout.​

At Kalshi in the Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli fight, traders have Álvarez (73%) over the unbeaten Mbilli (27%). The undercard bout will see Mexican champion Jaime Munguia (46-2, 35 KO) put his WBA Super Middleweight belt on the line vs Russian Nikita Zon (9-0-1) in Riyadh.​

🌎Trading Thoughts: This fight card is enticing, with the undercard featuring an unbeaten fighter and the Canelo Alvarez vs Christian M’billi bout featuring the champion, also undefeated (29-0-1), after winning his first 29 straight professional boxing matches before a Draw (SD) in September 2025.

Álvarez (63-3-2, 39 KO) is timeless (532 rounds since his 2005 debut), is worshiped in his native Mexico, and the veteran will look to avoid becoming the 25th KO victim of Mbilli. All three of Canelo’s career losses have happened here in Las Vegas (Mayweather, Bivol, Crawford).

The question here is: can the champ shock the betting public and the likely Mexican-heavy pull? Álvarez can thrust himself back into the scene and remind all he’s the best fighter at 168 pounds with a win in Saudi Arabia. But Solide will be up for the slugfest in the biggest fight of his career.

The 2026 Formula One World Championship season stays in North America for the 2026 Mexico City Grand Prix at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (Asphalt) in Mexico City, Mexico on Sunday afternoon (Apple TV, TIME 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST). Word of the day: How to say ‘Vroom’.

After Max Verstappen won two straight races (Bahrain, Singapore), rookie sensation Kimi Antonelli was the winner in Round 18 of the F1 circuit at the United States Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, on Sunday, October 25, inching him closer to the title.

📊Trading Thoughts: The market at Kalshi for the Mexico Grand Prix Main Race Winner has Italian rookie and circuit leader Kimi Antonelli (37%) as traders’ second choice behind Max Verstappen (39%), with Charles Leclerc (10%) also getting early trading love at the exchange.

A 9th-place finish or better by Antonelli (365 points) in Mexico on Sunday will clinch the F1 championship and make him the youngest driver to win the circuit as well as the first Italian to do so since Alberto Ascari way back in 1953.

Last weekend was a definitive in Auto Racing in setting Antonelli up to be crowned the new F1 king this weekend in Mexico City, and Kyle Larson (98%, Kalshi) over in the NASCAR Cup Series.

🏁2026 Formula One Mexico Grand Prix Pick: None

There were three unbeatens in the NFL heading into Week 8: the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC and the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC, and both Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and Brock Purdy and the 49ers lost to birds—the Seahawks and Falcons respectively.​

The Vikings held off the hapless Colts in Minneapolis (16-10) to improve to 6-0 in NFL Week 7 and claim the honor of being the NFL’s last unbeaten team this season in a game that only saw 493 yards of total offense by both teams. When football becomes chess...​

This means the NFC North battle between Minnesota (3-0 Road) and Jared Goff and Detroit (3-2, 2-0 Home) at Ford Field (Astroturf) in Detroit (FOX, 10 EST/9 CST/7 PST) may preserve the 1972 Miami Dolphins perfect 17-0 season as the league’s only still, should Minnesota lose in Motown.​

📊Trading Thoughts: Detroit looks like the same team we have seen the last several seasons, schizophrenic and able to score points (30.7 PPG, #2) but unable to stop teams when they have the football (27.5 PPG, #26). Lions Overs have gone 5-1-0 this season, going Under on Sunday vs. GB.​

In the series trends, WR Justin Jefferson and the Vikings covered the last 2 ATS after the Lions won 8 straight ATS (2021-2025) in the last 10 meetings, with the Over at 7-3-0 in that span. With such a strong Vikings defense (12.3 PPG #1), can the Lions run and score wild like they always do?

🏈NFL Week 8 Sunday Pick: Minnesota-Detroit Over 46.5

 ➠ In the next edition of The Prediction Report, we will look at the start of the 2026-27 Men’s NCAA College Basketball season, Native American tribes launching their own Kalshi-powered app, and Kalshi offering college admission rate markets. We preview the 2027 NBA Rookie of the Year Award, #3 Georgia vs. #17 Florida in the NCAAF on Saturday, and the Bears at Seahawks game on Monday Night Football.