The biggest political day of the year in the United States of America (USA) and the last three years is coming up in two months and one day on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, when all 433 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate will hold elections to the U.S, Congress.​

Non-voting members of Congress in the District of Columbia, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Puerto Rico will also hold elections. There are 39 gubernatorial elections with 18 incumbents running and 21 leaving due to term limits or their own decision.​

As it is, Republicans [R]—the red elephant crowd—control both chambers of Congress with a 218-212 majority in the House and a 53-45 majority in the Senate. Two Senate Independents (Bernie Sanders—VT, Angus King—NH) caucus with the Democrats [D]—the blue donkey people.

In the House, Independent Kevin Kiley (CA) also caucuses with the Democrats. The party needs to win a net 4 seats in the Senate to capture the majority vote in the Senate, while the Republicans can’t lose over 2 seats to keep their slim majority in the always contentious chamber.​

On August 31 at Polymarket, traders were giving both parties a 50%-50% chance of winning the Senate. The market had a healthy volume of $4,049,441, so people love to bet/trade Politics. Let’s look at some of the key races, current prices, and try to put some shape on the Midterm Elections.​

With a low 33% approval rating for President Trump, economic issues, no end in sight to the Iran mess he started with no plan and trying to talk his way through it, and alienating longtime allies like Canada and Europe, people are not very happy with the Red Team or the loquacious Orange Man.

🗳️ Polymarket 2026 Midterm Elections Hub

The current governor of Florida is Ron DeSantis, a 47-year-old who ran for US President in 2024. He is term-limited and will be leaving after serving 8 years as the Sunshine State’s 46th governor. DeSantis assumed office at 700 North Adams Street in Tallahassee on January 8, 2019.​

In the Florida Governor Primary, Byron Donalds (47.8%) was victorious, beating out Jay Collins (25.2%) and James Fishback (10.5%) for the Republicans, with David Jolly (60.9%) winning easily over his opponents Dayna Foster (15.1%) and Dotie Joseph (9.6%) for the [D]’s on August 23.​

In the FL-19 race to replace Donalds, Jim Schwartzel won the Republican primary over several candidates, and Victor Arias took the Democratic primary over Howard Sapp and Robert Neeld.

Florida has had a Republican governor this entire millennium, with four straight after Democrat Buddy McKay (1998-1998), who had a 25-day term, succeeded Lawton Chiles, who died in office.​

Looking at the Florida Governor Winner? and odds of the outcome at Kalshi: Republican Byron Donalds (82%) looks like he will make it 5 straight Republican governors in F-L-A, with Mike Jolly (20%). Trump endorses Donalds, as exciting as Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez were acting in Gigli.

🗳️Trading Thoughts: My thoughts are less about “trading” and more about how hard it must be to live in the state of Florida—where President Trump has Mar-A-Lago—with alligators, Floridians, mosquitoes, and Katherine Harris (Katherine Ebbeson Ware), not to mention the Miami Dolphins.​

Here’s a quote from Daniels, ironically a Trump crony: ”Private investors deserve to know Wall Street and hedge funds are not engaged in malicious behavior when the pendulum swings in favor of private investors, not corporate cronies.” His mentor Trump had $1.4 billion in Crypto earnings in 2025.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Florida Governor Race Winner Pick: Byron Donalds, Yes, 82¢

Georgia is a purple swing state, the Peach State, and the state where President Trump won in the 2024 US Presidential Election. The big race here is in the Senate, and, reading the predictive tea leaves of the masses, it seems the race is over before the first vote is cast.​

In the Georgia Senate Election Winner market on Polymarket, new darling [D] Jon Ossoff (94%) has a big lead over Republican candidate Mike Collins (6.0%) as of August 31 ($123,008). Trump endorses Collins. An InsiderAdvantage poll showed Ossoff ahead of Collins by 7% (50%-43%).

🗳️Trading Thoughts: Thirty-nine-year-old Atlanta native Ossoff has been a breakout star in August for the blue donkeys, and for a brief moment at Kalshi, the senior Senator from Georgia held a lead in the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market at Kalshi (18%) over AOC (17%).​

But that’s the future, and we are concentrating on the now and the Midterm General Election (GE). Here, it seems you have two choices: Avoiding buying Ossoff ‘Yes’ because the contract prices are too high, or gambling on the Collins ‘Yes’ being cheap (or the Ossoff ‘No’). 

☑️Midterm Elections: Georgia Senate Race Winner Pick: Jon Ossoff, Yes, 94¢

North Carolina is a purple swing state, the Tar Heel State, and the state where Michael Jordan went to high school (Laney, Wilmington) and college (North Carolina) before accidentally changing the world with his nouveau basketball brilliance, much like The Beatles did back in the Sixties.​

The big race here is also in the Senate and could be a massive pickup for the Democrats who are trying to flip the Senate (as well as the House, the Gubernatorial count, the White House). The last Senate race the Democrats won in Georgia was in 2008, before BTC was born.

With Thom Tillis [R] retiring, it’s former governor and Democrat Roy Cooper—who won twice—facing Republican and Trump ally Whatley, a renowned fundraiser. This'll be an interesting race, with 1 always equaling 2 in this instance.​

🗳️Trading Thoughts: On August 24, the North Carolina Senate Winner markets at Robinhood Predictions (93c-9c), Polymarket (93%-9%, $98K volume), and Kalshi (91%-9%, $1.2m) show Cooper with a massive lead over former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Whatley.​

☑️Midterm Elections: North Carolina Senate Race Winner Pick: Roy Cooper, Yes 92¢

The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is a heated one. Like Florida, it’s hard to see a red donkey win in a blue elephant state that has voted for an [R] for president every year since 1990, after voting [D] every year from 1872 to 1976.​

It’s been 30 years since Texas has voted Democrat statewide, so will 2026 be any different? Talarico took a slight 2% lead over Trump-endorsed “MAGA loyalist” Paxton on August 8 (51%-49%), and Paxton and Talarico are at 50-50 in the Texas Senate Winner on August 31.​

One thing is for sure: prediction markets are an ideal barometer for politics, and the Politics category is one of the most calibrated for traders, according to a recent study released by Kalshi. Also, of note, the Texas primary race was reportedly the most expensive in US history ($110m).​

In the Texas Governor race, expect incumbent Greg Abbott (85%) to win over House member Gina Hinojosa (17%). Abbott is another staunch Trump ally. Unlike Trump, Abbott has two dogs, golden retrievers named Peaches and Honey Butter Chicken Biscuit—no word on if they’re voting.

🗳️Trading Thoughts: My thoughts are less about “trading” and more about how hard it must be to live in the state of Texas—where Elon Musk relocated Tesla—with nutria, Chupacabra, Texans, and Jerry Jones, not to mention the Dallas Cowboys and their last Super Bowl appearance in 1996.​

That’s 15 years before Bitcoin debuted, when the team’s starting QB Dak Prescott was 3 years old.​

This one is hard to tell, but there are 8.3 million registered Democrats, 6.6 million registered Republicans, and 2.9 million Independents, so you can see why the [R]’s are always so busy redistricting in the Lone Star State. They don’t have the numbers, so they have to play Trump Ball.​

Texas Attorney General Paxton dealt with a felony charge for securities trading and saw his wife file for a divorce citing "Biblical grounds” and still won the runoff with the Tangerine Toddler’s blessing. Never underestimate the [R]‘s ability to ignore democracy for their own selfish means.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Texas Senate Race Winner Pick: James Talarico, No, 51¢

Michigan is one of the most underrated states. This is a state that changed the world with the Auto industry, Motown, Diana Ross & the Supremes, Stevie Wonder, and Eminem. This state is so cool: it has two parts, shares a border with Canada, and touches four of the five Great Lakes.​ Recognize.

Senator Gary Peters is retiring, so in the Wolverine State and highly publicized race for the Senate, Detroit health official and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (65%) held the lead over Republican Mike Rogers (37%) in the Michigan Senate Election Winner market at Kalshi on Monday, August 31.​

🗳️Trading Thoughts: Polls show a much tighter race than seen in the prediction markets, where the non-DSA Democrat has a larger lead in substantial trading volume with plenty of liquidity on the major exchanges 70 days away from the big election. Michigan is always blue collar, good for the blue team.​

Outgoing Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is a Democrat and served her eight years and has thrown her support behind fellow blue donkey and the 41-year-old University of Michigan (BS) and Columbia (MD) graduate El-Sayed to win the seat of senior senator and Democrat Peters.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Michigan Senate Race Winner Pick: Abdul El-Sayed, Yes, 65¢

In America’s Dairyland, there will be an intriguing race for the Wisconsin Governor. Like in Florida, where Ron DeSantis is term-limited, current Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers is also leaving the Madison mansion. Evers has been governor since 2019 when Lake Ontario was still Lake Ontario.

The Wisconsin Governor winner? race is between Republican Tom Tiffany and Democrat David Crowley, and it’s a tale of two types of numbers—prediction markets and polls—where at Kalshi (with almost $1 million in trading volume), Crowley had an 80% to Tiffany’s 21% on August 31.​

A poll taken on August 12 and 13 by Platform Communications—founded by Republican strategist Keith Gilkes—showed Crowley with a much slimmer lead of just 4% (48%-44%) from the 500 likely voters in the general election. The poll showed Crowley with a larger lead among Independents.

🗳️Trading Thoughts: So it’s a million in trading volume from probably more than 500 traders whose political affiliations are meaningless as they are trying to make money from this market versus exactly 500 people in a poll taken by a man who is on the blue elephant team.​

As you can see from the Kalshi graph in this market, Republican Tiffany led at one point, 59%-42%, on August 5 at the popular exchange, but remember that the numbers you see at different prediction markets are always current snapshots of that moment in time and of what was traded.​

Growing up in the Midwest, my feeling is the Simple Man from Wisconsin is sick of Trump, and the fake [R] promises and how much it’s hurt the state. Wisconsinites are very similar to Canadians—they share a border—and this needless tariff (again) with our neighbors from the north may be the end.​

Also worth noting. Beware of what you see or riding the coattails of momentum (or numbers) you see at any given point in time on prediction markets. On August 8, Francesca Hong was trading at 94% to win the Wisconsin primary with Crowley at just 8%. Oops.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Wisconsin Governor Race Winner Pick: David Crowley, Yes, 80¢

In the Land of 10,000 Lakes, a purple Independent and former wrestler (Jesse Ventura) was the Minnesota Governor (1999-2003), followed by red elephant Tim Pawlenty (2003-2011) before two blue donkeys, Mark Dayton (2011-2019) and Tim Walz (2019-Now), called Saint Paul home.​

In this state that borders Canada where Purple Rains fill the sky and Jucy Lucys fill the stomachs of the hockey-loving faithful, we see Minnesota more apt to vote whoever seems best for the job as governor as opposed to ordering the same thing off the menu every four years.​

At Polymarket in the Minnesota Governor Election Winner market, the all-estrogen race between Republican Lisa Demuth and Democrat Amy Klobuchar is all Klobuchar (95%), with Demuth (5%) so far behind. At the exchange on August 31, she may be in North Dakota ($69,411 in volume).​

Demuth defeated MyPillow Guy Mike Lindell in the Minnesota Republican Primary for Governor in early August by 11%. Still, the Trump-endorsed election denier—who led in polls heading into Election Day according to LindellTV— says he will pay for a recount. We live in a crazy bad dream.​

🗳️Trading Thoughts: Despite its current stance (felony) on prediction markets, Minnesota has always been one of the most progressive states and home to some of the kindest people in the United States like Prince, Dr. William Worrall Mayo (Mayo Clinic), and Nobel-winner Bob Dylan.​

Minnesota has always been extremely literate and intelligent. It has also given us F. Scott Fitzgerald (The Great Gatsby), Sinclair Lewis, Peanuts creator Charles Schulz, and iconic actress Judy Garland (Grand Rapids), who starred as Dorothy in the 1939 movie classic The Wizard of Oz.​

The state is also home to two of the most intelligent and grounded traders you will find on prediction markets in Mentions market specialist @Foster and Music and Movie guru @GaetenD. Like Georgia and Ossoff, it’s probably too late to get in on incumbent and 66-year-old Klobuchar.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Minnesota Governor Race Winner Pick: Amy Klobuchar, Yes, 95¢

To win control of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, November 3, and flip the political script in Washington, D.C., the red donkey Democratic Party will need incumbent and senior Senator Susan Collins to lose to Democratic contender fifth-generation logger Troy Jackson from Fort Kent.​

The 73-year-old Collins—seeking her 6th term—is the only [R] Senator running in a state Trump lost in 2024. Its close relationship with Canada may hurt the blue elephants in the Pine Tree State after this latest trade war and the 50% tariffs on our leading trading partner. Not good for anyone.​

Looking at the Maine Senate election winner—where the volume sat at a healthy $1,228,4584 on August 31—Democrat Troy Jackson enjoyed a healthy 39% lead (70%-31%) over the incumbent who is often a swing vote in the chamber and has been mathematically very important to the [R]’s.​

🗳️Trading Thoughts: Jackson led Collins by 4% in a poll in August, so like other states, there is a big difference in what the prediction markets are saying and what the polls are. Best to lean to the simple thought that no [D] would be so far ahead of an [R], even with the political winds changing.​

This one matters much to the Dems, who are trying to flip the Senate, but it seems the Jackson (‘Yes’) price is overvalued, so just watching the results is a decent position to hold? After the Graham Platner [D] mess (sexual assault allegation) and Collins Fatigue, an old logger seems safe.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Maine Senate Race Winner Pick: Troy Jackson, Yes, 70¢

Alaska is the 49th state in the union and has a funky system where the top four finishers in the state’s primary all make the ballot on the Midterm GE, and two Republicans named Dan Sullivan made the final cut. This is problematic for the blue elephants and also very funny at the same time.​

On top of being the easternmost state in the union longitude-wise and easily the largest, Alaska also had a great Senate race with retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan, and Democrat and Alaska Native Mary Peltola in the snowy mix.

But that was one Dan Sullivan too many, so the current Senator, Dan S. Sullivan fed the other one to the Iliamna Lake Monster so he could go snowshoe-to-snowshoe with the first Alaska Native to join Congress, Pelota, a candidate the state’s voters rejected in the House of Reps race in 2024.​

🗳️Trading Thoughts: Alaska is a deep red state with Conservative values to go along with the survivor mentality that it takes to live in such harsh weather conditions and a place where the Sun hibernates at times and most of the land is uninhabited, save for the bold Arctic Circle trees.​

Kalshi traders gave Peltola and the [D]’s a solid 66% chance (GOP 35%) to take back the Senate, seemingly high for the blue donkeys in a red state full of black bears, gray wolves, and white people. Alaska’s the Maine of the West and is also Nature folks and may be sick of false promises.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Alaska Senate Race Winner Pick: Mary Peltola, Yes 66¢​

As it is now, the Republicans hold the power in all three of the branches of the U.S. government (Executive, Legislative, Judicial), so if the prediction market numbers are right in the Which Party Will Win the House of Representatives? exchange at Polymarket, that stranglehold will end.​

Historically, the party in power in the White House ends up losing seats in the House and Congress in the Midterm Elections. The Democrats need to gain just 3 seats (net) to win the majority of the governing body. And the PMs see the same, with the [D]’s given an 89%-12% shot.

🗳️Trading Thoughts: When Bill Clinton [D] won the presidency in 1992, the Republicans took back the House with Newt Gingrich and his “Contract With America.” After Trump [‘R’ after being ‘D’] won his first term in 2016, the [D]’s picked up 41 seats. So everyone sucks, is what this means?​

Yes, but we already knew that. These are politicians telling us what they think we want to hear. Red and Blue. Elephants and Donkeys. Two parties have helped get us to this point of a meaningless war that’s not a war and a $40 trillion and counting national debt.

At this point, a third party of any color with any animal as its mascot would be incapable of repairing so many of the needless things that we have done as a nation this millennium to let the devolution continue. And that’s not taking into consideration the drought and Mother Nature.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs, and history, math, and prediction markets suggest the Democrats should win back the House on November 3.

☑️Midterm Elections: House of Representatives Race Winner Pick: Democratic Party, Yes 89¢

What color the Senate of the 120th Congress will be in 2027 may be the biggest question we will see answered on Election Night 2026 in these Midterms. Still, when elections are called, there is always a demand for a recount, like the MyPillow fella who denies things before they even happen.​

Now, the [R]’s hold a 53-47 edge, meaning a flip of 3 seats (1 = 2, the +1 you gain and the -1 for the other party = net +2) in the Senate would still not give the red donkey team the power—50-50 means VP JD Vance breaks ties—in the Legislative branch that theoretically controls some things.​

Those things? Big things like passing laws, controlling government spending—we laugh here—and declaring war. In this administration, the Executive branch has decided that it is the one who gets to declare “War(s),” or whatever these recent things we start and name and end but don’t end are.

There are 35 Senate seats up for election in these Midterms, with 22 currently held by Republicans and the other 13 by Democrats. Ten incumbents will not be on the ballot—6 Republicans and 4 Democrats—including Lindsey Graham [R-SC], who died on July 11, 2026.​

In the ‘Which Party Will Win the Senate?’ Politics market at Polymarket on Monday, August 31 ($4,039,441 volume) was still as Yin-yang as it can be, with the Democrats (51%) and Republicans (50%) tied like a sports score and not even defined as a “dead statistical heat.”

🗳️Trading Thoughts: The Senate race may end up being must-watch TV or a disappointment. In the Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms, traders saw the Democrats Sweep (51%) the result with an R-Senate and a D-House the next choice (36%) in trading 10 weeks from Election Day.​

The math is simple: Dems need a +4 for Senate power, as Vance is a 51st vote for the red team if and when needed. This means the elections in Maine, NC, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Alaska are massive for Democrats. Texas may also now be in play in the Senate.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Senate Race Winner Pick: Democratic Party, Yes 51¢

On Midterm Elections night (and counting after), not only will the House and Senate be voting, but all the local and state elections will take place, including 39 races for Governor in the U.S.​

The breakdown of the 39 Gubernatorial races on Election Night 2026, where 18 incumbent governors are running for reelection, including Greg Abbott [R] in Texas, Joe Lombardo [R] in Nevada, J.B. Pritzker [D] in Illinois, and prediction market enemy Kathy Hochul [D] in New York.​

Governors have less of an impact on our day-to-day lives in the U.S., and are less apt to want to rename Lake Ontario to “Lake America” because they are mad the wife is there because she knows about the other woman and your approval ratings are so low you can see the dead flowers’ roots.​

🗳️Trading Thoughts: Looking at the Ohio Governor Winner? On August 25 at Kalshi ($1,349,239 volume), Democrat Amy Acton (57%) was the traders' choice over Republican Vivek Ramanswany (44%). This is a bit surprising with Ohio being a pretty red elephant state of late.​

Like other states, the Ohio State polls show a much tighter Buckeye State race, so November 3 will not only be a test between candidates from here, there, and everywhere, but also a reflection of the numbers seen in the PMs—with substantial volume—are closer to what happens than the polls.​

The heart of the USA with Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska will all have a huge impact this election, so the governors’ race results will be interesting. If Acton wins in Ohio and Crowley in Wisconsin, it could be a long night for the party currently in power.​

☑️Midterm Elections: Ohio Governor Race Winner Pick: Amy Acton, Yes 58¢

There’s something truly American and democratic with a small “d” about a Midterm Election where Maine and Alaska have some say-so and matter. There are no professional sports teams in these states or constant news flow, but Maine and Alaska could change the Senate going [D].​

The race for US President in 2028 has hardly started, and although Vice President J.D. Vance has been the top choice at all of the prediction markets in this exchange, don’t expect the robot to make it to the point of being the Grand Old Party’s (GOP) choice in two years.​

The US Presidential Election Winner 2028 trade at Polymarket already had $696,489,586 in trading volume on August 31, with Vance (25%), AOC (11%), Ossoff (11%), and Rubio (10%) leading, with Newsom (10%), former Joe Biden VP Kamala Harris and Josh Shapiro following (3%).​

The PMs have said no to the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and longtime Democratic frontrunner, California Governor Gavin Newsom, in the next presidential election. Now Dems Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) are battling for the [D] Presidential nominee.​

What to expect on Election Night? The Democrats will flip the House of Representatives, with the Senate hinging on what happens in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska. And the Trump administration will complain that it wasn't a fair election, because the orange elephants did poorly.

➠”In the next all-sports edition of The Prediction Report, we will look at the start of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, the NFL Passing Yards Leaders, the F1 Italian Grand Prix and the EPL London Derby between Arsenal-Chelsea on Sunday, and previews of three NCAAF games, Miami-Stanford on Friday, Indiana-North Texas on Saturday, and Ole Miss-Louisville on Sunday.”