SpaceX IPO June 12: Polymarket Sees 72% Chance it Tops $2 Trillion

In this issue we will look at the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO and some markets surrounding that likely record-setting event, the huge controversy surrounding the Survivor Season 50 markets we told everyone about before the season started, Sporttrade shuttering, three MLB previews, an NHL Eastern Conference Final update and a DI College Baseball preview.

The progressive rocket and satellite company formed by Elon Musk, SpaceX, is in the process of launching the largest-ever Initial Public Offering (IPO) in stock markets history when the company will begin trading on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol SPCX.

SpaceX is aiming to raise $80 billion at an estimated $1.75 trillion valuation according to Fortune and hopes to top the $1.7 trillion IPO debut of Saudi Aramco on the Tadāwul Saudi Exchange back on December 11, 2019 when we were still young and a million dollars still had some cache.

The monster offering will be a combination of the core space operation of SpaceX, the operations of Starlink, and the Musk AI startup, xAI, so the tech-heavy NASDAQ will welcome a new monster to the midway with asset managers like BlackRock likely to dump billions into this coming IPO.

CNBC reported a global roadshow for the SpaceX IPO rollout will commence on June 8. There is a Starlink launch prepared for June 12, so welcome to the boomtown. AI chipmaker Cerebras (CRBS) debuted its IPO on Thursday, May 14 and finished with a market cap of about $95 billion.

Two other giants in the futuristic and somewhat scary-as-fudge Artificial Intelligence (AI) space are San Francisco’s Anthropic and the Musk-Sam Altman creation OpenAI, and both may also offer IPOs this calendar year with potential valuations of more than $1 trillion. The Future is now.

>Source: Investopedia

While the biggest IPO in history is about to drop, Wall Street's smart money is already quietly positioning in another market with a hard deadline this week.

Now, on to what prediction market traders are saying about where the SpaceX IPO actually lands.

When we were young, a million sounded like the maximum amount of money one would desire to accumulate and then there were more millionaires than tigers left in the wild. Now? The billionaire is the new millionaire and we’re on the verge of witnessing the world's first trillionaire, Elon Musk.

And one would expect the world’s richest man to come up with the biggest Initial Public Offering (IPO) of a stock in the history of all markets. Musk’s SpaceX announced on May 18 that it would start trading on the NASDAQ on June 12 under the ticker symbol SPCX.

Traders at Polymarket are very bullish on the amount of money this upcoming IPO will raise with the SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap Above ___ ? sees all of the polymarkets (‘Yes’) trading above 41% up until the>$2.2T range (41%), making between $2.2T and $2.4T the sweet spot.

The highest chances are being given to the >$1T range (98%), the >$1.2T range (97%), the >$1.4T range (94%), the >$1.6T range (92%), the >$1.8T range (85%), the >$2T range (72%), the >$2.2T range (59%), the >$2.4T range (41%).

With a 72% chance the IPO from SpaceX closes over $2,000,000,000,000, does that mean looking even higher and holding for a ‘Yes’ contract or 100 on >$3T at 11c? That might just be a little too much with most analysts pegging the SpaceX IPO valuation in the $2.2 trillion range.

Click here to trade on SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap Above ___ ? at Kalshi

Speaking of massive upside opportunities, one investment is drawing serious attention from traders looking to get in before the biggest AI IPO in history.

Now, on to the prediction markets controversy that's been brewing since February.

There are a handful of markets at Polymarket related to this projected SpaceX IPO, including the (Who Will be the ) Lead Bank in SpaceX IPO? where Goldman Sachs (100%) has already rewarded its backers at Polymarket after the news came out late last week.

Goldman Sachs was the heavy favorite over other industry giants Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, Barclays and JPMorgan. The trading volume in this market ended at a healthy $2,234,319.

In the simplistic In Which Month Will SpaceX IPO? and Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO First?, we see June (93%), July (6%), No IPO Before 2027 (1.2%) and October (<1% ) and SpaceX (98%) the obvious favorites in two exchanges who probably won’t see much more trading action.

Still In Which Month Will SpaceX IPO? Had $374,114 in trading volume on May 18 with Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO First? seeing $73,511.

Another SpaceX-related market is the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 with a launch by June 30 (97%) almost being given a near certainty chance of happening by Polymarket traders.

We were the first to cry foul on the Survivor 50: In The Hands of the Fans markets in the February 22, 2026 edition of The Prediction Report, three days before the much-anticipated three-hour “In the Hands of the Fans” season premiere of the popular reality TV show on February 25.

“Researching the Survivor 50 Winner market at Polymarket—as we previously mentioned here at TPR—it appears some traders know who made it to finale night already on the taped show. With just $33,320 in volume days before the premiere, Aubry Bracco (76%) was ahead of the other castaways.,” we wrote.

And “Why is Aubry trading at 76% (Yes 80¢, No 29¢)? Surely someone knows something? This market only had $33K in volume on February 22, and no one has seen anything but the people working on and involved with the show. This makes trading and enjoying this market virtually impossible.”

On Wednesday, May 20 in the Season 50 finale, Aubry Bracco ended up winning the $2 million prize—thanks to a MrBeast Coin Toss twist—by an 8-3-0 jury live vote, beating out Jonathan Young and Joe Hunter in a controversial season with Jonathan playing the better game.

Survivor has recently always been taped on the Fiji Islands, and then returns to Los Angeles with the Final 3 known for a final live jury vote. And that has always been a problem for fans, even before prediction markets started popping up and offering legal trading in the Survivor winner(s).

Back in 2003 when Survivor fans were forced to look for offshore betting outlets to wager on the Survivor winner, we same the same types of leaks and trading behavior making one think somebody actually knew who had already made it to final night and the Final 3 at Tribal Council.

Before the opening episode of Survivor 7: Pearl Islands, an Antigua-based online sportsbook BetWWTS.com took around $5,000 in wagers from 15 traders in the Vancouver, BC, Canada area on Sandra Diaz-Twine to win to win, despite, like this season, the opener not even airing. They won around $35,000.

And Kalshi had the same problem as Polymarket with suspicious trading activity in their own Survivor 50 Winner market. Kalshi lawyer Robert Denault said, “So far, no traders with large positions seem to have a relationship to the show or to the network.”

“Thousands of traders took early positions consistent with the outcome, likely because of public rumors. And public rumors don't equal insider information.”

Robert. Come on man. Words are nice. We know you are a lawyer. But at what point do so-called “public rumors” actually become “insider trading” when you find out who those early Aubry ‘Yes’ buyers were with holding large positions with no information *theoretically) to go on?

And this is a real issue for both Survivor—who tapes and airs the winner live in a Final 3 twice a year—and the prediction markets serving up exchanges on Reality TV and other entertainment events which may not be as fair as the public would like to think they are.

The most-streamed sporting event in history (108 million viewers), the Netflix Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson bout is another example of a market one should probably think about before pretending it was a real match.

Whether or not Kalshi and Polymarket put these markets up the next season, Survivor 51, (September) remains to be seen, but this is a real problem. It makes Survivor look bad, lawyers say stupid stuff, fans mad, and leaves traders unwilling to trust markets like these because of IT.

This doesn’t rise to the level of a soldier making money off the capture of Nicolás Maduro or of people making money off trading on specific War or Oil markets, but it makes people think the whole industry is shady when in reality the vast majority of this is just people trading sports.

A real pioneer in the industry, Sporttrade announced last week that it was ceasing operations of its betting exchange and all indications point to the company launching its own prediction market sometime in the future.

The company essentially introduced the prediction market product for sports in the US, acting as a betting exchange where traders could buy and sell contracts against each other as opposed to betting against “the house,” or the traditional brick-and-mortar and online sportsbooks.

Sporttrade halted all trading on Monday (May 25) with the entire platform set to shut down on June 26. Users in New Jersey needed to withdraw all of their funds by May 25, with Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, and West Virginia users needing to close up accounts by June 25, 2026.

The 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are down to the final four with a new Stanley Cup champion with last year’s participants, the Panthers and Oilers, eliminated early on in what always ends up being a fantastic NHL Postseason.

In the Eastern Conference Finals, Sebastian Aho and the Carolina Hurricanes are facing the Montréal Canadiens in a best-of-7 series which started on Thursday, May 21 with Game 1 at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC in a game won by Les Habs as the Canes Home ECF woes continued.

But Carolina won in OT in Game 2 after Montréal rallied to tie it 2-2 late in the 3rd period, so we have a series now after the Hurricanes won for only the second time in the last 19 Eastern Conference Final games.

➤Trading Thoughts: In the Eastern Conference Champion polymarket at the appropriately named Polymarket, hockey traders like the Hurricanes (72%) over the Canadiens (30%), but I like the underdog and the gamble here despite the Hurricanes starting 9-1 so far in this Postseason.

Why? Simple, Zamboni breath. Because Carolina had lost 15 straight ECF games before snapping the ugly streak. 15. When May comes, does Hope freeze with the ice in the Tar Heel State? With the Panthers gone, this is the team’s best path to the Stanley Cup Finals but skepticism smolders. ➤Trading Pick: Canadiens 36¢

The 2026 College World Series is still a month away, but with so many schools still trying to make that final 8 and head to Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska on June 12, now is the ideal time to look at the NCAA Division I Baseball Champion market before the tournaments get heavy.

The 64-team NCAA DI Baseball Tournament will open up this Friday (May 29). You can catch DI games in this 79th edition of the tournament on ABC, ESPN, ESPN+, ESPNU, ESPN+, ACCN, and SECN. The 2026 DI Baseball season will end on June 21 or June 22 with someone winning it all.

In the College Baseball DI Champion market at Kalshi, traders are behind top-ranked UCLA (19%), Georgia Tech (18%), Georgia (14%),Texas (11%), North Carolina (11%), Auburn (7%), Mississippi State (6%), Texas A&M (5%), Florida (5%), West Virginia (2%), Arkansas (4%), and Alabama (2%).

With 2% chance, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas, Florida State, Miami (Florida), Ole Miss, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Southern Miss, and Wake Forest with Alabama at 1%.

➤Trading Thoughts: SS Roch Cholowsky and the #1 Bruins—who won 27 straight at one point—are the team to beat, but there are others to consider like Daniel Jackson, Tre Phelps, Kolby Branch, Brennan Hudson and #4 Georgia. Sixteen different teams made Omaha the last 2 years. 

With ace RHPs Ryan Lynch and Jason DeCaro and 3B Gavin Gallaher, #2 North Carolina is the real deal and #12 Arkansas—with four MLB prospects in RHP Gabe Gaeckle, C Ryder Helfrick, LHP Hunter Dietz, and RHP Carson Wiggins—should also be on your prediction market trading radar. 

And #18 Oklahoma State with CF Kollin Ritchie (.358/29/73) and #18 Florida with Hayden Yost might be decent longer shots to back before things get too hairy this month and next. ➤Trading Picks: UCLA (19¢), Florida (5¢), Georgia (14¢), North Carolina (11¢)

Click here to trade on College Baseball D1 Champion at Kalshi

The 2025-26 UEFA Conference League Final is set for Wednesday with the English Premier League’s Crystal Palace facing Spanish LALIGA’s Rayo Vallecano at Red Bull Arena (Grass) in Leipzig, Germany (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT). What is the UEFA Conference League?

The UEFA Conference League is the baby brother of the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League and this is the fifth time it has been contested. Roma (2021-22), West Ham United (2022-23), Olympiacos (2023-24), and Chelsea (2024-25) were the first four tournament winners.

Like the UCL and UCL, this tourney has two markets trading on the results of the Final match, with the UEFA Europa Conference League: Winner and the Crystal Palace FC vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid. Crystal Palace is 66% to win the trophy with underdogs Rayo Vallecano trading at 36%.

Crystal Palace (50%) also had the majority of the ‘Yes’ contracts in the 3-way market with a Draw at 28% and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid trading at 23%. The Total at 2.5 goals saw the ‘Yes’ at 47¢ (No, 53¢). In this market like many, you can trade on 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 4.5 and even 5.5 goals.

➤Trading Thoughts: Crystal Palace will rest its starters for the EPL Matchweek finale against Arsenal in an effort to win this tournament and silverware and end the season on a positive note. No UCL or UEL berth for Palace, but at least a shot at a championship and no relegation horrors.

The Eagles got here beating AEK Lamaca (2-1 agg), Fiorentina (4-2 agg), and Shakhtar Donetsk in the semifinals (5-2 agg) while Rayo Vallecano ousted Samsunspor (3-2 agg), AEK Athens (4-3 agg), before shutting out French Ligue 1 side Strasbourg in both of the Semifinal legs (1-0, 1-0).

F Ismaïla Sarr (9 goals EPL) will be the attacker The Red Sashes need to worry about. With CP having Dean Henderson as GK and Rayo GK Augusto Batalla, it seems goals could be at a premium in Leipzig where the AccuWeather forecast is calling for beautiful 77° F temps on Hump Day.

Choosing a side is hard and although the wisdom of the collective masses is always respected, Palace probably shouldn’t be such big chalks. This could go to AET or PKs with a 1-1 scoreline. AI could not, and will never think this way. ➤Trading Pick: Under 2.5 47¢ [35%], Under 3.5 53¢ [65%]

The National League West division is as we thought it would be, with the defending champion Dodgers and Padres leading the way with great pitching staffs and enough bats to score enough runs to win games against average and below average MLB teams. They win when they want?

On Wednesday, the Dodgers (33-20, 15-10 Home) will host the Rockies (20-34, 10-19 Road) at Dodger Stadium (Grass) for a mismatch with Los Doyers at Home and the modern day Babe Ruth, Shohei Ohtani (4-2, 0.73 ERA), scheduled to start for LA where often a Dodger Dog is not enough.

Why? Because you can lay down $40 and get The Slugger—an oversized, 16-inch jalapeño-cheddar sausage served with a pound of French Fries—and say adios to your stadium hunger pangs but then likely have to return to the Concession Stand and see if they have Pepto-Bismol Milk Shakes.

In the 2026 MLB World Series Champion market at Polymarket, the defending World Series winning Dodgers are priced at 26%—still the favorite in this Futures marketplace—with the Rockies at 1% and tied with all of the other MLB teams on the bottom of the ocean eating algae.

➤Trading Thoughts: The 2025 MLB Head-to-Head results show LA went 10-2 vs the Rockies last season and the two split the first series this season at 2-2. Colorado has always struggled away from Denver, but the game prices here if Ohtani starts will be un-bettable.

For the Rox, RHP Michael Lorenzen (2-6, 7.03 ERA) may start (Sportsnet LA, Fubo, MLB.tv), so it’s an elite Home team vs a crappy Road team with one P having a microscopic Earned Run Average (ERA) of 0.82 and the other an ugly 7.03 ERA. Don’t blame the altitude. His WHIP is 1.91. Trading Pick: None [LA as Parlay leg]

Click here to trade on MLB Props at Underdog Sports 

The American League East division has been strange as expected, with the surging Tampa Bay Rays (30-15) taking over the division lead from the Yankees and going an impressive 16-5 at Home while also being able to keep their head above .500 waters on the Road (14-10).

But the Rays will be at Baltimore and Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Kentucky Bluegrass) to face the Orioles (23-30) in the last game of a 3-game series and the last game of a 6-game road trip at the Big Apple and Crab City. So TB could be tired Wednesday (FS1, MLB.tv, 6:35 EDT/3:35 PDT).

The scheduled starting Probable Pitchers for this game were RHP Nick Martinez (4-1, 1.51 ERA) for Tampa Bay and RHP Chris Bassitt (3-3, 5.44 ERA) for Baltimore. This is the first series between these two AL East wannabes where 13 games will be contested on the diamond this season.

➤Trading Thoughts: The O’s have shown no edge in Baltimore (12-12) and have the worst Run Differential (-44) in the AL East while the Rays have been the hottest and most profitable team to date in MLB. We see these often long periods of success from TB, but seldom a Postseason run.

Still, at least this franchise has some spunk compared to the Orioles who play below their potential perennially. Last year, the Rays went 6-7 vs Baltimore, but the Rays (7-3 L10) have proven that they can win on the Road (15-11), ➤Trading Pick: Tampa Bay

Click here to trade on MLB games at DraftKings Predictions

The National League Central division has been surprisingly good to start off this 2026 Major League Baseball, and on May 18, all five division members—the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, and St Louis Cardinals—sported records above .500.

On Thursday, Ian Happ and the Cubs (29-24, 11-13 Road) head to PNC Park (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to face the Pirates (27-26, 13-13 Home) in a Game 4 of a 4-game series in the Steel City (MLB.tv, Fubo, Marquee Sports Network (6:40 EDT/3:40 PT).

The starting scheduled pitchers for the game are RHP Colin Rea (4-2, 4.98 ERA) for the Cubs with ace Paul Skenes (6-4, 3.00 ERA) getting the pill for the Bucs.

➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the MLB Head-to-Head results between the Cubs and Pirates, we see that Chicago went an impressive 10-3 vs Pittsburgh last season, but the Pirates won the opening 3-game series (2-1) earlier this Spring at Wrigley Field in Chicago in April.

O’Neil Cruz and the Pirates were expected to improve in 2026, and they have with the team ranking impressively high in offensive categories OBP (#4), Runs (#4), Batting Average (#6). With Rea having such a high ERA, the thought is there will be many (9) Runs here. Trading Pick: Over

Click here to trade on MLB games at Robinhood

 ➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the UEFA Champions League Final between Arsenal and defending holders PSG, Polymarket combining up with its own weird name for parlays, an OpenAI IPO in September, the Women’s FA Cup Final, and the NASCAR Cup Series Cup Cracker Barrel 400 from Nashville. Thanks for reading and subscribing to this bi-weekly newsletter for prediction market traders, sports bettors, and news junkies alike.