The Federal Reserve voted on a 25 bps increase at its meeting last month, and reading the financial tea leaves that predictive markets have become, it seems the Fed’s 12 board members may again vote for another 25 bps increase at its second-to-last meeting in 2026 coming on October 27-28.

After that, the Federal Reserve will still have one more meeting in December (December 8-9) in a crazy year that has been hard on the consumer and one which has seen the Headline CPI inflation rise to 3.4% year-over-year (August) with the Core CPI at 2.4% (excluding Food and Energy).

But Food and Energy matter to people and their families and pets, and 2026 has been hard, with Energy costs up 16.3%—gasoline up a revolting 27.4%—and Food prices up around 2.7% as we start October. US presidents and their huge and often silly decisions matter.

And the Fed sees that and doesn’t care what the current resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue thinks. That’s a good thing. Trump wants to use numbers and words to make himself look like a superhero. If he doesn’t like the numbers or words, he parrots words like “rigged” or “phony.”

He should know about these two things. When the president didn’t like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLM), he dismissed Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a disappointing jobs report. When the president was mad at CNN, MS NOW, and Politico, he banned them. They’re back now.

In the Fed Decision in October? Trade at Polymarket US, sentiment has swung to another potential 25 bps rate hike, with a 25 bps Increase (68%) now the big favorite, with a No Change (33%) next. The Fed voted to leave interest rates unchanged through September 2026.

A 50+ bps Increase (2%), a 25 bps Decrease (1%), and a 50+ bps Decrease (1%) are all getting little attention in the popular market for the benchmark interest rate, which had $13,712,4878 in volume on September 24.

The markets were already pricing in another potential rate hike, with CNBC citing that the Fed had Warren dealing with a dashboard of reasons:

Looking ahead to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December meeting (December 8-9), and Robinhood numbers, it looks like October with Hike 25bps Increase (72¢) is the favorite, with a Fed Maintains Rate (28¢), Cut 25 bps (6¢), Hike >25 bps (5¢), and Cut >25bps (3¢) all next.

📈Federal Reserve Decision in October Pick: 25 bps Increase, Yes, 78¢

Kalshi has accidentally become the whipping boy of the prediction markets, but hey, when you’re #1 and have the most volume, most money, and largest media presence, you’re going to catch heat. Everyone freaked when The Beatles tried marijuana. No one cared when Keith Richards did.​

Anyway, Kalshi seems to lose more state court battles than the Colorado Rockies lose MLB games, and it often seems the privately held, New York City-based company is the brunt of many jokes while trailblazing a new industry and changing the world as we know it. Some use ‘Kalshi’ as a verb.​

Two weeks ago, Kalshi asked the CFTC to allow margin trading on its prediction markets, a move that would let users essentially gamble with borrowed funds. This didn't sit well with some.​

Kalshi has also been awful at arguing that the Sports category on its platform isn't the same as sports betting, calling parlays “Combos” and using different words for things the sports gambling community has used for half a century.​

Targeting special deals and “free money” to younger people—by both Kalshi and Polymarket—also drew warranted criticism and reminded many of the offshore sports gambling boom before the Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018.​

Kalshi was also under the financial microscope for alleged wash trading and the constant rumblings of fake volume numbers on the platform. The CFTC is now looking at those suspicious trades, all clustered around the same time and totaling $5,500.​

And Mexico’s professional soccer league, Liga MX, is suing Kalshi for using the logos of the league and its teams on its “betting page.” The lawyers saw what the lawyers did, and now Kalshi has a lame green generic soccer ball for the league and colored shoes (soccer boots) for the clubs. Silly.

To say the Mentions market category in prediction markets is the Wild, Wild West would be wrong, because despite perceptions of what this niche sector is, it is what it is on the few platforms that choose to offer it. Why? Because the whole sector is the Wild, Wild West?​

At their peak at Kalshi, Mentions made up a respectable 4.18% of the volume before plummeting to 0.17% after the prediction market temporarily suspended its Sports Mentions market on August 3, 2026, after the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) started probing.​

The federal agency recently put out an advisory on Mentions markets, saying some of them (including and beyond Sports) may be “presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation.” This may mean we see a different and more limited menu of items in future Mentions markets.​

The Political Mentions markets, especially those involving the Prime Minister of Pomp—U.S. President Donald Trump—are really entertaining, and have been profitable for popular Twitter Mentions traders like PredMTrader and Locksy. We will see what the CFTC says about them.​

Like other categories, mentions markets have seen some seedy things, highlighted by the Trump Teleprompter fiasco that made our Commander in Chief, his staff, and the culprit Gabriel Perez (who used Kalshi) look bad and possibly hamstring the market.​

This was all after clown George Santos (who also used Kalshi) eroded whatever trust the public had left in him (if any), and markets, when he made money on the State of the Union by allegedly betting he wouldn’t attend after insinuating he would at the January event in Washington, D.C.​

Trading on Reality TV Competition shows is still a relatively new concept for most in the United States, with the shows who do have polymarkets created for can be for unfair, uninteresting, or even perpetually stuck and resolved like the Bachelorette Season 22 winner at Polymarket.

With the conclusion of CBS’s 28th US season of Big Brother last night in Studio City, California and the crowning of Rick Devens as the season’s winner and recipient of the $750,000 grand prize, the season showed the show still has spunk and that prediction markets can be fun, fair, and liquid.

Proof in case is Kalshi, who were the first to open up the Big Brother Season 28 Winner trading, and a company progressive enough to offer 2nd Place (Taylor) and 3rd Place (Drew) finisher markets and Elimination markets every week of the season. Kalshi catches a lot of heat, but is also very good.

These markets have made Thursdays a huge day for the show, HouseGuests, Big Brother fans, and prediction markets traders just dabbling or serious about Reality TV Competition trading. Like most markets, in the end, there will be one ‘Yes’ (season winner) and all the rest ‘No.’ No wins, bro.

Polymarket also had a Big Brother Season 28 Winner market ($237,411). The 42-year-old Devens also won America’s Favorite HouseGuest (aka America’s Favorite Player) another $50,000 and a record $810,00 prize money and finished with 3 HoHs, 3 Vetos, and 2 Block Buster victories.

This is of interest as one of the other three big CBS Reality TV Competition giants—Survivor—had no markets introduced on Kalshi or Polymarket after the Season 51 premiere last Wednesday. Was this because of all the controversy surrounding S50 and potential insider information?

The problem with Survivor and prediction markets—and many other Competition Reality TV shows like The Traitors—is that they are either partially or totally taped up until the night of the Finale. This is problematic as a trader (or bettor) as well as fans of the shows not wanting them spoiled.

Big Brother markets work as the nature of the game is completely different and all gameplay can be observed in live time on the Big Brother Live Feeds. This is why we saw so many lead changes, so much trading, and the winner market is an incredible tool to see what those watching think.

Like Sports, traders see all and can buy “Yes” or “No” contracts on what they think may happen in the not-so-distant future. This makes it a fair, fun and revealing market that actually isn’t skewed. The fact the BB28 market did so well for Kalshi and Polymarket to some extent, is a real positive.

This season of Big Brother 28 featured two former Survivor players in Devens and Dee Valladares (4th place) and a former Big Brother HG, Angela Murray. The almost final Kalshi trading volume for the BB S28 Winner was $8,611,478, (and counting), so this was over a $10 million thing for Kalshi.

And the BB28 fan engagement and viewing numbers couldn’t have been better. S28 ended up being the most-streamed BB season ever. Across CBS, Paramount+ and the Live Feeds on Pluto, viewership was up 9%. The ratings averaged 5.1 million multiplatform viewers (+8% vs. 2025).

The NFL Championship Game—better known as the Super Bowl—will be played in Los Angeles (Inglewood) at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, February, 14, and Valentine’s Day, making this an abnormally stressful Sunday in the US for the average male who will need chocolates and bets.​

Implanting a concert within the last football game of the NFL season has become a tradition, and now guessing, predicting, and even betting on who will perform (and what songs) has worked its way into the fabric of our society via sportsbooks and prediction markets.​

Last year, Bad Bunny interrupted the game between the AFC champion New England Patriots and the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks, and in five months we will see another elite musical act or artist performing at the home of the Chargers, Rams, and a stray cat named Federico.​

Polymarket has a market up for the halftime act at Super Bowl LXI, called Who Will Perform at the 2027 Big Game Halftime Show? and Miley Cyrus (81%) was the early leader on September 30 in one of those markets where we could see more than one strike cash in.​

Following were Mr. Beyoncé and NYC rapper Jay-Z (66%), Justin Bieber (38%), Sabrina Carpenter (30%), Taylor Swift (24%), Morgan Wallen (16%), Harry Styles (14%), Dua Lipa (11%), Post Malone (7%), Luke Combs (7%), Drake (7%), Kanye West (4%), and Olivia Rodrigo (2%).​

This NFL season’s Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles will air on TV on ESPN and ABC.​

📈Trading Thoughts: When trading so early (opened September 22, 2026) in a market like this, remember it is essentially a guessing game and may be positioned by some of the serious traders. With just $14,242 in reported volume on September 26, this one will certainly grow and evolve.​

Also remember one very important thing you won’t see in most other prediction markets: the name of the (‘Yes’) winner or winners may not even be on the menu yet. The 2026 NFL Regular Season just kicked off on September 9 in Australia.​

The NFL has reportedly had trouble locking in a solo headliner for this year’s Big Game, and rumors have surfaced of Jay-Z headlining the show all by himself along with other entertainers, as we have seen in other Super Bowl halftime shows.​

​Jay-Z—whose real name is Shawn Carter—and his Roc Nation have partnered with the NFL since 2019, with the 56-year-old helping the league find and choose acts in the past. As a behind-the-scenes producer, Carter said it would be “selfish” to pick himself.​

But we are running out of truly great musical acts that can perform at Super Bowl halftime shows. The two most logical are Jay-Z and Drake, who has had beef with Jay-Z, as well as Kendrick Lamar, the rapper who performed at the game in 2025 and was produced by Jay-Z.​

🏈 NFL Super Bowl LXI Halftime Performer Pick: Jay-Z, Yes 77¢​

The #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0-0, 2-0 in SEC) are a team to watch, and on Saturday they welcome #7 Alabama (4-0, 2-0 in SEC) to Davis Wade Stadium (Latitude 36 Bermudagrass) in Mississippi State, Mississippi, in NCAAF Week 5 play (ABC, 12 EDT/11 CDT/10 MDT/9 PDT).​

Both schools hope to make some noise this season and return to the heights they once enjoyed, but the Power 3 conferences are now so deep and the NIL effect so strong that programs like these may struggle to keep up with the Joneses. And the SEC schedule is still brutal.​

In the Alabama vs. Mississippi State winner market at Kalshi, QB Keelon Russell and Alabama (68%) are the choice over QB Kamanao Taylor and Mississippi State (32%) in a game which will be a tough loss for one of these two. Bama has #3 Georgia next (10/1), with MSU at #12 LSU (10/17).

📈Trading Thoughts: Host Mississippi State is a live underdog here (+140, DraftKings), but history hasn’t been so kind to the Bulldogs in this series, with Bama winning the last 16 straight meetings and going 8-2-0 ATS in the last 10, getting the money every year since 2018 in DJT’s first term.

The Under has also been profitable over that span at 7-3-0. But what stands out is the Crimson Tide victory margins: 23, 24, 40, 41, 31, 24, 7, 48, 25, and 5. That’s plain ugly. At 58.5, the Total seems high, and it is, as none of those last 10 aforementioned meetings saw more than 58 points.

With MSU’s last win vs. Alabama in 2007, before Bitcoin (BTC) and blockchain, Ethereum (ETH), and 50 Cent (FIDDY) were even things, and George W. Bush was in the White (not Gold) House, it’s too hard to suggest backing the homeboys here, although this could be a great SEC watch.

🏈NCAAF Week 5 Saturday Totals Pick: Alabama-Mississippi State Over 60.5 points, No 52¢

Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium (AstroTurf) in Columbia, Missouri, is the site of this SEC showdown between #8 Florida (4-0, 2-0 in SEC) and #19 Missouri (3-1, 0-1 in SEC) on Saturday in Week 5 (TV, 3:30 EDT/2:30 CDT/12:30 PDT). The winner gets CFP fumes.

RB Jadan Baugh (8 TD), WRs Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson, and the Gators have been a pleasant surprise, while the Tigers have been waiting for their star RB Ahmad Hardy to return to The Zou as he continues to recover from a gunshot wound suffered at a concert.

At Polymarket in the Florida vs. Missouri prediction market exchange, electric RB Jadan Baugh (11 TD) and visitors Florida (67%) are the favorites over Missouri (34%). At online sportsbook DraftKings, the Point Spread saw Florida -5.5 with the Total at 53.5 (FLA -205, MIZZOU +170).

📈Trading Thoughts: In the last 10 series meetings, neither team has an advantage, with both Florida and Missouri 5-5-0 SU and 5-5-0 ATS, and the Dog cashing in the last 3. The Total is 4-6-0. In the last meeting (2023), the teams combined for 1,008 yards in a 33-31 Missouri home win.

Against LSU last weekend, the Gators showed they are the real deal and vaulted into the Top 10s (AP, Coaches) as Baugh ran wild for 142 yards and 3 TDs a week after rushing for 162 yards and 3 TDs at Auburn in Florida’s SEC opener. The Gators scored 96 points in those two impressive wins.

In the last 10 series meetings, both schools are 5-5-0 SU/ATS, with the Over 6-4-0 and cashing in the last 3 in a row (2021-2023). The Road team is 6-4-0 ATS. Missouri will still be without RB Ahmad Hardy (Gunshot), so QB Austin Simmons (11 TD, 0 INT) will have to shine.

Since 2020, Missouri is an unimpressive 7-20 against AP Top 25 teams, and the Tigers are even uglier at 0-16 SU vs. SEC schools that finish the Regular Season with a winning record. With Hardy. Mizzou may have been able to hang, but the line movement seems like some smart Gators money.

🏈NCAAF Week 5 Saturday Afternoon Pick: Florida To Win by 4.5 Points, Yes 53¢

The last time Indiana (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) lost a football game (December 20, 2024), Sleepy Joe Biden was still in the White House, and the Hoosiers certainly won’t be losing to Rutgers (0-4, 0-1 Big Ten) at SHI Stadium (FieldTurf) in Piscataway, NJ on Saturday night (BTN, 8 EDT/7 CDT/5 PDT).​

The Birthplace of College Football may be a cradle of misery for the Scarlet Knights, who haven’t beaten an AP Top 25 team since 2009 and who lost as 29.5-point favorites to UMass (37-21) in their opener. Rutgers did play well vs USC, winning the ToP and 1st Downs in a loss (42-35).​

QB Josh Hoover, WR Charlie Becker (6 TD), and #5 Indiana (94%) are the traders' choice in the Indiana vs. Rutgers fray at Kalshi, with QB Dylan Lonergan at Rutgers (6%) following. The Point Spread sees Indiana -24.5 (DraftKings) and the Total at 55.5 (IND -2400, RUT +1200).

📈Trading Thoughts: Curt Cignetti is a guy Tony Soprano would have respected, and what he has done in Bloomington is nothing short of a miracle and one of the greatest accomplishments in the history of college sports. This is not hyperbole, and I am not an IU alum. The man is The Man.

The transfers have helped Indiana (43.5 PPG, #11) not miss a beat, with RB Turbo Richard and WR Nick Marsh thriving, and two key players (DL Kellan Wyatt, Stephen Daley) now just joining the team after knee injuries and some legal bullshit, although Richard was hurt last game.

The Hoosiers (9.8 PPG, #5) were already playing great D—albeit against the 3-game Home Cupcake schedule phase—but adding Wyatt and Daley to a DL that already boasted Tyrique Tucker and Mario Landino is criminal, and we may have to file charges against Cignetti.

Rutgers has some great skill guys (WR KJ Duff, RB Antwan Raymomd) and played very well vs. the Trojans, but USC was undisciplined and showed a defensive weakness. Against IU, the Scarlet Knights should score between 0-13 points with the Hoosiers racking up between 48-57.

Both teams are 5-5 SU, with Rutgers 7-3-0 ATS against Indiana, covering and winning the last 3 meetings, so Cignetti—whose brother Frank served as a QB coach under Rutgers HC Greg Schiano—will want to give the Scarlet Knights a taste of the new Indiana football program.

🏈NCAAF Week 5 Saturday Side Pick: Indiana -24.5

The Big Ten Conference offers another great Week 5 matchup between Washington (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) and QB Jordan Maiva and #18 USC (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Bermuda Grass) in Los Angeles, California on Saturday (NBC, 7:30 EDT/6:30 CDT/4:30 PDT).​

QB Demond Williams Jr. and the Huskies beat Washington State in the Apple Cup, Utah State, and EW before opening Big Ten play with a loss vs. Minnesota in Seattle. This will be Wazoo’s first road game. USC outscored foes, 172-91, before Oregon cut them a slice of humble pie (41-27).​

At Kalshi in the Washington vs. USC game, USC (54%) are the home favorites with Washington (46%). At online sportsbook DraftKings, the Point Spread was at (Southern Cal minus) 10.5 with the Total (Points) at 58.56 (Moneyline: USC -375, WASH +295).

📈Trading Thoughts: The Coliseum should help King Miller and the Trojans, but Washington has had the best of this series, albeit most of the games were contested when both still called the Pac-10 or Pac-12 home. Washington is 6-4 SU and a profitable 7-3-0 ATS, winning 3 in a row against the betting number. The Under is 7-2-1, cashing in 6 of the last 7 series meetings.

The last time these two played at The Grand Old Lady in LA (2023), they scored 94 points (WASH 52, USC 42), with the game going Over the Total (75.5) by 28.5 points and 1,087 total yards. Washington has won ATS vs. USC in 5 of the last 6 and the last 2 in Southern California.

Washington has played good D (13.3 PPG, T-#23), and the Huskies will have to, as USC has so many nice skill guys like freshman TE Mark Bowman, WR Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, and WR Trent Mosley, and WRs Zacharyus Williams and Corey Simms. Still, 10.5 is a lot of points in this spot.

🏈NCAAF Week 5 Saturday Night Side Pick: USC Wins by Over 11.5 points, No 55¢

This weekend's Sunday Night Football offering isn’t the sexiest game, but NFL Week 4 standalone primetime games are always over-bet and over-traded for so many reasons.​

QB Jared Goff and Detroit (2-1, 0-1 on the Road) collide with QB Bryce Young and Carolina (1-2, 0-1 at Home) at Bank of America Stadium (FieldTurf Vertex Core) in Charlotte, North Carolina, in an NFC tilt in primetime on Sunday night (NBC, 8:20 EDT/7:20 CDT/5:20 PDT).​

In NFL trading on September 24 at Kalshi, Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers, Detroit (64%) were slight road favorites over Carolina (36%). At DraftKings, the Point Spread was at the Lions -3.5 with the Total trading at 50.5 (Moneyline: DET -180, CAR +150) four days out.​

📈Trading Thoughts: The Lions have been underwhelming, the Panthers have been an enigma. The jury is out on whether or not the Lions are any good, whether Bryce Young is good enough to be an NFL QB, and if Carolina’s romp over Atlanta in Week 2 (34-3) was a gridiron anomaly.

One thing seems certain: Goff (802 passing yards, 8 TD, 0 INT) is good. If Goff’s skill position weapons RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, and TE Sam LaPorta can get back to where they were the last couple of seasons, the Lions may compete. We’ll see.

In the last 8 meetings in this series, Carolina is 5-3 SU and 4-4-0 ATS, and they've gotten the money in the last 3 meetings at BoA. The Over is 5-3-0, winning 2 straight. With Chicago putting so many up on the Black Cats in the Tar Heel State, Detroit should get 35 as well.

🏈NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Football Side Pick: Detroit Lions, Yes 65¢

➠”In the next issue of TPR, we’ll headline the late summer Bitcoin bull run, the Supreme Court reconvenes and the chances of hearing the NJ prediction market case, CBS’s Big Brother 28’s success, and serve up tasty market previews of the 2026 Ballon d’Or and 2026-27 UEFA Nations League, Buccaneers-Cowboys and Jaguars-Eagles NFL dates and #14 Iowa-Washington and #23 UCLA-#15 Oregon NCAAF weekend games.”

Kevin is an award-winning journalist, sports and culture handicapper who has written for Bleacher Report, Sportsbook Review, Gaming Today, The Sports Geek, FanSided, TicketX and The Prediction Report. Kevin has lived in Las Vegas since moving from Chicago in 1991 and is the proud owner of a little rescue cat named Ralphie.