We looked at the 2026 Emmy Awards, the premieres of Traitors US (Peacock, Thursdays), and Dancing With the Stars (ABC, Tuesdays, 8 ET/PT), so now let's preview the upcoming 51st season of CBS’s hit Reality Competition show, Survivor, which debuts Wednesday, September 23 (8 ET/8 PT).​

Why are there so many issues dedicated to TV? Because they are all making their Autumn debuts and the coming calendar will be thick with football back, the Midterms in November, and the 2026 holiday season following (Halloween-Thanksgiving-Christmas-New Year’s Eve-New Year’s Day).​

Survivor was among the five nominees for the 2026 Outstanding Reality/Competition Series Emmy Award last Monday night in Los Angeles. Still, the popular Reality Competition show was no match for NBC/Peacock’s big hit The Traitors, which won the award for a third consecutive year.​

Filmed in Fiji and hosted by Jeff Probst, this show is unique as the winner and final tribal vote are announced live from either Fiji or, usually, a soundstage in Los Angeles. This makes room for potential insider trading, as god knows how many on the CBS crew know who the Final 3 is.​

And the castaways who played the game—and signed nondisclosure agreements—also know who the F3 are before Finale night. This was an issue in the highly anticipated Vivor, won by Aubry Bracco, who dominated trading at Kalshi before Episode 1 ever aired.

Kalshi said it looked into possible insider trading (IT) in this winner’s market, and Probst slammed Kalshi and Polymarket, claiming the popular prediction markets are "incentivizing people to lie, cheat, and steal.” This is a myopic, predictable narrative from the iconic Survivor host.​

This is like a rancher blaming the fence, the cattle, or Mother Nature when one of his flock escapes. No one knew (and now knows) who the Survivor F3 are but the show, the network, and the players the show cast to play the Reality TV Competition game. Blaming PMs makes Probst look dumb.​

The 51st season sees 21 contestants in the Mamancua Islands, bringing in “The Open Era,” where Probst said, “anything that’s ever happened on Survivor can happen again—at any time, in any order, without warning.” Fellow CBS hit Big Brother 28 is employing a similar nostalgic theme this season.​

Let’s look at the 21 castaways and the early trading numbers from both Kalshi and Polymarket. But remember, three already made the F3 (filmed April18-May 13, 2026), and we will see those taped episodes all the way up until the S51 finale on Wednesday, December 16 (8 ET/7 CT/8 PT).

For the 19th straight season, Survivor is filmed in the scenic tranquility of the Mamanuca Islands in Fiji, located about 1,111 miles north of New Zealand in Oceania, an archipelago lying naked in the vast ocean. Instead of three tribes to start S51, there will only be two, a throwback to the past.

The famous Fiji water you see in stores comes from an underground aquifer in the Yaqara Valley on the largest island of the Republic of Fiji called Viti Levu. The water is as pure as this Reality TV Competition show, which is the anchor of CBS’s Big 3 with Big Brother and The Amazing Race.

The 11 male castaways are Rob Antonson (40), Brady Booker (27), Ori Jean-Charles (27), Cristian Chavez (26), Thien An Nguyen (24), Lewis Kelly (28), Danny “Kilby” Kilby (30), Carter Krull (24), Eric Macksoud (34), Mike Pinsky (32), and Devin Way (33).

The 10 Women Survivor 51 contestants are Washington, DC, fed prosecutor Patt Cannaday (33), Linnea Capobianco (33), Sharonda Cox (34), Jenna Doore (30), Kristin Flickinger (49), Alexis Levine (34), Angelica “Lolly” Loblack (29), Maggie Nestor (40), Aaliyah Puglia (24), and Ana Sani (34).

🚦Trading Thoughts: The prize here is a cool $1,000,000, and with 21 players and two tribes of 10 each, the 21st person—a selected castaway—will replace the first person voted out, so things will be hot and heavy from the start. The two initial tribes are Savu (purple) and Toka (yellow).

Looking at the last six winners of Survivor, we find 5 women (Dee Valladares—S45, Rachel LaMont—S46, Kenzie Petty—S47, Savannah Louie—S49, Aubry Bracco—S50) and one man (Kyle Fraser—S48). Women or minorities have won the last 7 Survivor seasons (and the last 6 BB).

Does this mean I am advising you to bet against the White males on Survivor (and Big Brother)? Yes. This trend is no different than Arsenal having Chelsea’s number in the EPL or The Traitors dominating in its Emmy category. A smart trader will realize this and eliminate 35% from the jump.

🥥Survivor Season 51 Early Winner Pick: Patt Cannaday

Fall begins tomorrow, and that means the new and 52nd season of Saturday Night Live will premiere with New York Knicks G Jalen Brunson hosting and KATSEYE as the musical guest from Studio 8H at 30 Rockefeller Center on Saturday (NBC, Peacock, 11:30 ET/10:30 CT/8:30 PT).

The scheduled guests for the following three episodes (1010-1012) of SNL will be Dakota Johnson (Turnstile musical guest) on October 3, Shane Gillis (Rosalía) on October 10, and Inde Navarrette (Gracie Abrams) on Halloween night, October 31.

Lorne Michaels created Saturday Night Live in 1975, left the show in 1980, and returned as executive producer in 1985, and sooner or later, the 81-year-old Toronto, Canada native will step down and hand the reins of this television comedy gem to someone else. But who?

Kalshi has a market, SNL: Lorne Michaels’ Successor for Showrunner, where traders have been buying contracts for a long time now ($64,544 volume), and former SNL castmate and comedian Tina Fey (45%) is still the top choice at the prediction market, located in the same Big Ass Apple.

Following Fey in trading on September 11 were Steve Higgins (43%), SNL Weekend News anchor Colin Jost (23%), Seth Meyers (14%), and longtime castmate Kenan Thompson (5%).

Replacing 24-time Emmy winner Michaels—the man who created and produced SNL—is impossible, but someone has to carry the comedic torch forward with pride for NBC, which has to consider this show—along with The Tonight Show—as one of its proudest accomplishments.

The world’s biggest NFL contest, Circa Survivor, from Circa Sports here in downtown Las Vegas, saw over 36% of the field (8,039 entries) wiped out in NFL Week 1, with 7,585 of the contest’s record 25,017 entrants losing when the Cardinals upset the Rams (30.3% of the field).​

But they still have 31 teams left to work with? We joke because we are not involved. Circa Sports Vice President Mike Palm said the Cardinals' upset of the Rams resulted in the largest single-team loss in one week in Circa Survivor.​

Combining eliminations from the casino’s Circa Grandissimo ($100,000 entry fee) and Survivor, a record $10.3 million evaporated when Arizona rolled to a 26-14 victory at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, in a relatively boring game in which the Cardinals never trailed.​

How did this happen? Results are always a combination of things, but few could anticipate rookie RB Jeremiyah Love (ND) to be so good in his first real game as a pro, and new QB Jacoby Brissett (27/37, 277, TD) outplayed the Chargers' Justin Herbert.​

Into NFL Week 2, 1,227 people or groups still had all 10 (maximum) of their entries alive, with 16,978 real survivors in the running to win or split the record $25,017,000 pot at owner Derek Stevens’ Shangri-La in the Mojave Desert. It will be a long season.​

In business news, the Circa Resort & Casino and Circa Sports—owned and operated by Stevens and his brother Greg—announced on Friday, September 17, that it had entered into a partnership with MLB’s Athletics—soon to be the Las Vegas Athletics as the club plans its move to Sin City.​

Now playing in West Sacramento after being run out of Oakland (journalistic license), the A’s will be playing in a new ballpark here, currently being built on the Las Vegas Strip. The club hopes to start playing here in Las Vegas in 2028. Circa is the A’s first Founding Partner.​

We aren’t in a Time Warp, but living Boxing legends Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao were set to be lacing up the gloves and getting into the ring together one more time for a scheduled bout from the Sphere Las Vegas here in Las Vegas on September 19, 2026.​

But as happens at times with theoretically “retired” (but not retired) boxers looking to get another big payday, the camps involved couldn’t agree on whether or not this would be a fully sanctioned “real” fight or just a perceived cash-grab and Old Man Punching exhibition in the desert.​

The Mayweather camp—who train 2 miles south of my keyboard—doesn’t want to risk Floyd’s sparkly and unbeaten 50-0-0 record on a meaningless exhibition in probably one of the last fights in his storied career. The Pacquiao camp wants a sanctioned bout. Both camps have a great point.​

Kalshi has its Mayweather vs Pacquiao market open for the now indefinitely postponed bout from the magical marvel on the Las Vegas Strip, with Floyd Mayweather (72%) given about twice the chance of winning over Manny Pacquiao (28%) should this event ever take place.​

The fight remains in limbo, with tentative plans to reschedule Mayweather-Pacquiao 2 for early 2027. With money on the line and these two dinosaurs so far beyond their primes, we can expect cooler (and greedier) heads to prevail. We’ve seen this movie before.​

The 47-year-old Pacquiao is 62-8-3 with 39 wins by KO. Mayweather is 49 and will turn 50 on February 24, 2027. Staying 50-0-0 as he turns 50 is probably something Money has thought about for a long time here in Sin City.​

Bert Sugar, legendary boxing historian and the founder and editor of Ring magazine, ranked proud Filipino Pacquiao as the greatest left-handed (southpaw) boxer in the history of the sport.

The 2026 Presidents Cup will be held at Medinah Country Club (Course No. 3) in Medinah, Illinois, from September 24-27 between U.S. Team and International Team. Each team has 12 players: six who made the cut from the FedEx Cup points list and six others chosen by the captains.​

Team USA includes Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Russell Henley, and Collin Morikawa. The six other players are Chris Gotterup, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Jacob Bridgeman, Patrick Cantlay, and Jackson Koivun.​

On the Team World roster, Kim Si-woo, Ryan Fox, Hideki Matsuyama, Min Woo Lee, Tom Kim, and Adam Scott are the top six on the FedEx Cup points list with Corey Conners, Nico Echavarria, Im Sung-jae, Ryo Hisatune, Nick Taylor, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.​

The schedule of play is 5 Fourballs (Day 1), 5 Foursomes (Day 2), 4 Fourballs + 4 Foursomes (Day 3), and 12 Singles (Day 4) worth a total of 30 points. Scoring is the same as the Ryder Cup—match play—and it's a great format that provides a unique viewing experience.​

In the Presidents’ Cup Winner market at Kalshi, Team USA is a big 80% favorite in early trading on September 11 (trading volume $37,185), with Team World then trading at 18% and a Tie at 5%.

🚦Trading Thoughts: With the world’s #1 ranked golfer in Scheffler, hot hands Young, Clark, Burns, and Gotterup, Team USA should roll to the easy win in the Land of Lincoln, but this is Golf, so you never know. Brandt Snedeker is Team USA's captain.

Last year, Team USA won, as it has in 13 of the previous biennial Presidents’ Cups, with the competition ending in a Tie in 2003 and Team World winning its only time back in 1998 at the Royal Melbourne Golf Club in Melbourne, Australia, when Jack Nicklaus was the US captain.

⛳2026 Presidents’ Cup Winner Pick: Team USA Yes, 81¢

NFL Regular Season Week 3 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football battle between the Atlanta Falcons (0-2, 0-1 Road) and the Green Bay Packers (0-1, 0-0 Home) from historic Lambeau Field (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Green Bay, Wisconsin (PRIME VIDEO, 8:15 EDT/7:15 CDT/5:15 PDT).​

The Cheeseheads lost at Minnesota in Week 1, while Atlanta somehow had QB problems before the season even started, with The Tua Experiment failing miserably and backup Michael Penix proving he may always be injured, losing in Week 1 at Pittsburgh. Penix is expected back Week 3.​

At Kalshi in the Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers winner market, traders like QB Jordan Love and Green Bay (73%) over RB Bijan Robinson and Atlanta (27%), with the Point Spread seeing GB wins by 6.5 points or more ‘Yes’ at 55¢ and the Total trading at 45.5 points (Yes 52¢).​

🚦Trading Thoughts: Thursday night NFL games had a big Under year in 2025, with the Total proving love is the new money when nothing much happens on the gridiron. But dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to type words in English about how the Over is probably the best idea.​

The Packers are 21-13 (O/U) on Thursday nights and lost much defensive strength with the departure of DE Micah Parsons and LB Rashan Gary to the Cowboys—the team’s two leading sackers. But with third-string QB Cooper Rush and 4th-stringer Jack Strand, can Atlanta score?​

WE Drake London is a great player, as is Fantasy League hero Robinson, but the Dirty Birds have a serious QB problem, and someone from the 404 area code may be calling Philip Rivers soon. Anyway, back to the Over Trends: GB was 10-8-0 last year in the Total market with Atlanta 8-8-1.​

The Over was 7-3-0 in the Falcons' last 10 games heading into Week 1 and 6-4-0 for the Pack. And the Over is 7-3-0 in the last 10 in this series (6-1 L7), and the last 7 Falcons-Packers meetings have all seen at least 49 points (80-64-65-77-64-50-49), averaging 64.1 PPG (2014-2023).​

🏈NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football Totals Pick: Falcons-Packers Over 44.5, Yes 57¢​

The WNBA is back after the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup in Germany, and we find three games on the schedule on Friday night, including the Indiana Fever at the Toronto Tempo (ION, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT) and the New York Liberty at the Minnesota Lynx (ION, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT.​

In the Kalshi 2026 WNBA Champions market, rookie Olivia Miles and the Minnesota Lynx (48%) are the big favorites, with the Golden State Valkyries (13%), Las Vegas Aces (11%), Angel Reese and the Atlanta Dream (12%), and Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever (11%)all following.​

The underdogs and teams now given no chance to become the WNBA champions—a title held by WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson and the Aces right now— and Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and the New York Liberty (6%), Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings (2%), and the Washington Mystics (2%).

The 44-game WNBA Regular Season will come to an end in three days on Thursday, September 24. The 2026 WNBA Playoffs will tip off on Sunday, September 27, with the best-of-three Round 1. The WNBA Semifinals, a best-of-five format, will tip off on Sunday, October 4.​

The 2026 WNBA Finals are scheduled to start on Saturday, October 17. The Finals are a best-of-seven series, like the NBA. Last year, Las Vegas won its third women’s pro basketball title in the last four seasons, sweeping the Phoenix Mercury (4-0) as Wilson was named MVP.​

🚦Trading Thoughts: The Tempo had lost 15 of 16, but giving them 15.5 points at home? Toronto lost to the Fever 103-85 in their September 18 meeting, and although this team is losing in double digits every night, it’s hard to think the Fever will waste energy in the 2nd Half if they’re winning big.​

🏀WNBA Friday Night Side Pick: Toronto Tempo plus the points

Defending NCAAF champions Indiana have started the season off where they left off last year, rolling to easy wins over North Texas (52-16), Howard (55-0), and Western Kentucky (38-0), to plant themselves firmly where Curt Gignetti wants his Hoosiers. Not too loud, and not too quiet.

On Friday night, #5 Indiana (3-0, 3-0 at Home) will welcome Northwestern (2-0, 0-0 on Road) to Memorial Stadium (Hellas Matrix Helix) in Bloomington, Indiana, where there’s a black man with a black cat, livin’ in a black neighborhood in a Pink House pulling for another national championship.

This game will mark the Big Ten Conference opener for both after playing cupcakes. Indiana has seen new QB Josh Hoover (TCU) get used to his new campus, with RB Turbo Richard (BC) and WRs Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker (3 TD vs HOW) getting to know each other in the Hoosier State.

Indiana are big favorites (94%) at Kalshi, with Northwestern at 6%. The Hoosiers opened at -23.5 with the Total at 47.5 (DK). The Wildcats are set to open their new stadium this Fall, Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois, when the Purple Cats host Penn State on October 2 (FOX, 8 EDT).

🚦Trading Thoughts: Northwestern has a new QB in Aidan Chiles, and with WR Griffin Wilde, the Wildcats hope to give the program a solid offense to go along with the impressive defense with CB Robert Fitzgerald, which finished in the top 25 (#24) in Scoring Defense in D1 in 2025 (19.8 PPG).

Lifetime Northwestern is 47-36-1 vs. Indiana, and in the last 12 meetings, the Wildcats are an impressive 9-3 vs. IU, but the Hoosiers have won the last two by double digits (17, 31). With Curt Cignetti at the helm now, Northwestern needs to get used to losing to Indiana for a change.

The big thing here will be how well the IU offense can move the ball and score against a decent Wildcats D. Two things hurt Northwestern here: This game is at The Rock, and it’s the conference opener for the national champions—Indiana’s fourth straight home game to start the season.

🏈NCAA College Football Friday Night Pick: Indiana wins by over 23.5 points, Yes 47¢

Give us a ’T for Texas and T for Tennessee’ as the #1 Texas Longhorns (3-0) head to old Rocky Top to face the #14 Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) in a Week 4 SEC showdown at Neyland Stadium (Grass) in Knoxville, Tennessee early Saturday in NCAAF Week 4 action (ABC, 12 ET/11 CT/9 PT).

In Week 2, Texas collided with #1 Ohio State at home in Austin, and Heisman Trophy candidate QB Arch Manning and the Longhorns rallied to beat the Buckeyes before beating UTSA (30-6) on Saturday in Austin in Week 4 in a non-conference payday for Rowdy and the Roadrunners.

Tennessee opened the season 3-0 win non-conference wins over Furman (56-9) in Week 1, Georgia Tech (45-24) in Week 2, and Kennesaw State (42-9) in Week 3, with QB Faizon Brandon, WR Mike Matthews, and the Volunteers outscoring their opponents (143-42).

Texas is a big favorite (65%) over host Tennessee (35%) in the Texas vs. Tennessee trade at Kalshi.

🚦Trading Thoughts: This will be a fun game to watch and a tough early-season loss for either Texas or Tennessee, both of which have valid CFP aspirations in 2026. Both could lose and still make the 12-team format, and this may be more important to the Volunteers than to the Horns.

Neither Texas (5-7-1 ATS) nor Tennessee (5-8-0) were good against the betting numbers last season, and the Vols (8-5-0) were an Over school while the Hook ‘Em Horns slightly skewed Under (6-7-0).

Looking at this series, WR Cam Coleman (AUB)—ranked #3 WR by ESPN behind Jeremiah Smith (OSU) and Malachi Toney (MIA)—and Texas holds a 2-1 edge. Still, the last matchup was in 1969 when The Rolling Stones' Gimme Shelter was a big hit on the radio. You remember radios, right?

Texas added edge rusher Richard Wesley and LB Rasheem Biles (Pitt) on D and #1 portal pick Coleman and Dual Brown RBs Hollywood (NCS) and Raleek (ASU) to help Manning. In the Burnt Orange vs. Tennessee Orange battle, I shade with the Fighting Matthew McConaughey’s of Austin.

🏈NCAA College Football Saturday Week 4 Pick: Texas, Yes 67¢

➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll examine the chances the prediction market legality case lands in the US Supreme Court, what analysts think may be a bigger issue for PMs, who’ll be the next James Bond, and dish previews of the EFL Championship, the SEC Oklahoma-Georgia and LSU-Texas A&M games and the Chargers-Bills and Ravens-Cowboys Sunday NFL games.”