The 2026 NCAAF Regular Season is underway, and the first really big game of the year comes on Saturday when Jeremiah Smith and #1 Ohio State (1-0) face #4 Texas 91-0) at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf) in Austin, Texas (ABC 7:30 EDT/6:30 CDT/4:30 PDT).

The winner here will either retain (OSU) or claim (Texas) the #1 DI ranking, with the loser suffering a harsh early-season loss, but still likely to make the 12-team College Football Playoffs (CFP). Both QB Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes, and QB Arch Manning and the Longhorns, have tough schedules.

At Kalshi in the NCAA Football trading menu, the Ohio St. vs Texas exchange sees host Texas (52%) as the favorite over RB Bo Jackson (1,090 rushing yards, 8 TD) and visitors Ohio State (48%).

Both schools are national title contenders, with Ohio State at 13% and Texas at 12% at Kalshi (September 7), the traders’ first and second choices in the College Football National Championship Winner, followed by QB CJ Carr and Independent Notre Dame (11%).

🚦Trading Thoughts: These two powers met last year at the Horseshoe in Columbus, with OSU winning 14-7 in a low-scoring chess match. We may see the same thing here in the Lone Star State. The Buckeyes will bring in the better defense to Austin (OSU, 9.3 PPG, #1; TEX, 20.3 PPG, #28).

But with the best player in NCAAF, WR Jeremiah Smith (1,243 receiving yards, 12 TDs), freshman WR Chris Henry Jr., Brandon Innis, transfers Devin McCuin (UTSA) and Kyle Parker (LSU), and an up-and-coming TE in Nate Roberts, expect the Buckeyes to score more than 20 points this time.

Manning has always been overhyped, as has Texas in recent preseason polls, but the program is in the top 10 and needs the young QB to have a good season and the defense to be less porous. Against a guy like Smith, small seams can result in highlight-reel plays and 6 points for OSU.

🏈NCAA College Football Saturday Winner Pick: Ohio State, Yes 48¢

The Big Ten Conference has supplanted the Southeastern Conference (SEC) as the best DI NCAAF, with the last three national champions (Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan) coming from the strangely named assembly of 18 teams that spans from New Jersey to Los Angeles.

Both the Associated Press (AP) and Coaches (AFCA) polls have Ohio State as the No.1-ranked team in College Football heading into this new season, with conference-mates Oregon (#3) and defending national champions Indiana (#6) also in the top 6. This ain’t no foolin’ around.

At Polymarket in the NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion exchange ($168,575) on September 7, Ohio State was trading at 15% (15% at Kalshi), so the masses think the 2024 champs can get back to the 2027 College Football Playoff (CFP) Championship Game and win once again.

🚦Trading Thoughts: The Ohio State University looks like it has the best roster in NCAAF, with the Scarlet and Gray boasting guys like 247Sports Preseason True Freshman All-America choice, CB Devin Sanchez, CB Jay Timmons, and aforementioned freshman star WR Chris Henry Jr.

But the Buckeyes schedule is brutal. Besides this tea party in Austin in September vs #4 Texas, OSU also is at #22 Iowa (Oct. 3), at defending national champs and #6 Indiana (Oct. 17), at #14 USC (Oct. 31), vs #2 Oregon (Nov. 7), and vs. rivals and #16 Michigan (November 28).

Games against Illinois (Sept. 26) and at Nebraska (Nov. 21) won’t be easy for OSU, which only has four easy games on the OSU schedule: The opener vs. the Fighting Lettermans of Ball State (Sept. 5), vs. Kent State (Sept. 15), vs. Maryland (Oct. 10), and those Purple Cats of Northwestern (Nov. 14).

🏈2026 Ohio State Team Win Total Pick: Ohio State 10.5+ Wins, No 40¢

Kalshi Research did a cool study on Calibration in Prediction Markets, looking at more than 2,2 million resolved markets from 2021 through this summer, and the findings were as one hoped they would be, with Brier scores as the barometer for market efficiency.

The data from the Kalshi study showed the aggregate accuracy of markets was pretty good, with trading events with ‘Yes’ contracts priced at 70% resolving to ‘Yes’ around 70% of the time. At 3 months out, Naive Accuracy of markets rises from 88.3% to 97.2% near the market close.

This can be attributed to many things, including the wisdom of the masses all coming to a conclusion or realizing a probable outcome en masse, copy-trading, bots, or real humans realizing real things in real time and clicking like bees in a hive feeding the queen to make the money, honey.

In Categories like Economics, the Kalshi study found that markets tend to calibrate earlier and more tightly due to the frequency and scheduled nature of the markets. The Brier score by category and horizon chart is very revealing, with Mentions, Climate, and Finance the lowest (best) after 3 months.

The 3 highest 3-Month Brier scores in the Kalshi study were for Commodities (0.155), Crypto (0.132), Economics (0.108), and Tech & Science (0.108). Entertainment (0.88), Elections (0.087), Politics (0.085), and Sports (0.084) sat in the middle, indicating decent calibration.

Whereas public perception of which Categories in prediction markets may be the least and most calibrated varies, the public, media, states, government, and PMs all now have different perceptions of this evolving space. Gaeten Dugas spoke to this reality with wit on Twitter (X):

The former teleprompter operator that US President Trump called his favorite guy, Gabriel Perez, was fined $65,000 for insider trading and ordered to pay back the profits he made trading on Kalshi with “material, nonpublic information” he had from his job to trade on Trump speeches.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said Perez “must disgorge the profits he made from his unlawful trading totaling $107,539.02 and pay a civil monetary penalty of $65,000,” an amount it says is a "substantial discount” for his "exemplary cooperation” with the CFTC.

Bobby DeNault, the head of enforcement for Kalshi, said the popular prediction market found Perez’s “prohibited trading activity” and then reported it to the federal agency that regulates and polices prediction markets, among other things. Michael Selig is the head of the CFTC.

A civil penalty of $65,000 might sound like a lot—Perez was also banned from Kalshi and all other prediction markets for three years by the CFTC—but the glimpse it shows as to how easy it is to have insider information in Washington, DC, when saying (or not saying or doing) something pays?

This is troubling and makes you wonder about larger markets with more classified information used by more powerful people in war, oil, and other sectors, as we saw with insider trading in the Nicolás Maduro capture, where U.S. Master Sergeant Ken Van Dyke made over $400,000.

Former congressman George Santos (R-NY) was fined $35,000 earlier this year for bets he placed on Kalshi regarding his own attendance at the State of the Union, using a not-so-elaborate airport ruse to try to explain why he couldn’t attend after stating on social media he would. Be best. 

Perez made $107,539.02 in 14 Mentions markets—one of the most calibrated as we just said—during the State of the Union address, a Medal of Honor Ceremony, the National Prayer Breakfast, as well as other speeches. The CFTC filing said that Perez won 39 of his 43 trades.

The 2026-27 EFL Cup—known as the Carabao Cup for its sponsorship deal with Carabao Energy Drink- is down to 32 English clubs now from its starting 92, with one League Two team, five League One Teams, seven Championship teams, and 19 of the 20 Premier League teams still playing.​

So which EPL side has already been knocked out? Nottingham Forest, defeated by Leeds United 2-0 in Round 2. Manchester City is the defending Carabao Cup champion, with the Citizens defeating Arsenal 2-0 at Wembley Stadium in London on March 22, as Nico O’Reilly had a brace.​

On Wednesday, EPL side Chelsea opens the doors of Stamford Bridge (GrassMaster) to Leeds United in Round 3 play (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT). The Whites play in the Northern Section and ousted Forest, while the Blues play in the Southern Section and beat Luton Town, 2-0.

At Polymarket in the Chelsea vs Leeds United match, João Pedro, Cole Palmer, Reece James, Pedro Neto, and Chelsea are 58% favorites over Leeds United (20%), with a Draw at 24% in the 3-way, 90-minute market.

🚦Trading Thoughts: The Blues have a nice roster now under new manager Xabi Alonso, with fresh but familiar faces to soccer fans, like Emiliano Martínez (AV), Morgan Rogers (AV), Jordan Henderson (BRENT), Danny Welbeck (BHA), and Maxence Lacroix (CRY).

This gives the team wonderful depth, and with no UEFA Champions League or Europa League fixtures on the schedule this year, the Blues can concentrate on the EPL and the Carabao Cup. Leeds was promoted to the EPL and started 1-1-0, beating Forest and drawing with Brentford.

⚽2026-27 EFL (Carabao) Cup Round 3 Picks: Chelsea, Yes 58¢, Both Teams To Score, Yes 57¢

Spanish La Liga side Atlético Madrid collides with English Premier League icons Liverpool on Matchday 1 in the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League tournament at Anfield Stadium (Hybrid Grass) in Liverpool, England, on Wednesday (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).

​In the Liverpool FC – Club Atlético de Madrid exchange at Polymarket, host Liverpool are 57% favorites over Julián Álvarez and Atlético Madrid (25%), with a Draw (Tie) trading at 22% on August 31. The Reds were -125 on the 3-way line at FanDuel with the Total sitting at 2.5 goals.​

🚦Trading Thoughts: In the last 11 times these two have met, both won 4 times with 3 Draws, so the Reds and Los Rojiblancos (the Red-and-Whites) are as close as their nicknames and both have to look up at teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester City, and Arsenal perennially.

The skinny here is that this is a down Liverpool team compared to past versions, with Mo Salah now gone and that Fab Four status trampled underfoot by EPL newbies like Aston Villa. Atlético also saw its veteran legend, Antoine Griezmann, leave for Orlando City SC and the MLS in the US.

This could be low-scoring and 0-0 at half at Merseyside, with lethargy possibly ruling the evening. With Alisson Becker, Cody Gakpo, and Alexander Isak, the Reds have talent and still rank above Atleti (#8 v #10) in the UEFA Club rankings, but Álex Baena and Atlético are no slouch on the road.

⚽2026 UCL League Phase Picks: Atlético Madrid, Yes 22¢, Under 2.5, 44¢

A late-summer game between the Astros and the Phillies doesn’t seem like much of an outcome to worry about until you realize Philadelphia is still chasing the Braves in the NL East and the Astros are fighting to win the AL West, a division no one ever wants to win like the NFL’s NFC South.​

The Phillies are an NL Wild Card shoo-in and won’t get a bye in the opening round anyway, so this game seems more important to host Houston (69-68), the only team in the AL Worst with its head above the proverbial water. The Astros need to win every game. The Phillies do not.​

At Citizens Bank Ballpark (Kentucky Bluegrass) in the City of Brotherly Love on Wednesday, the Phillies (77-60, 38-30 at Home) welcome the Astros (69-68, 36-33 on the road) for an interleague late-afternoon game (MLB.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia, Space City, 6:40 ET/5:40 CT/3:40 PT).​

Ace LHP Christopher Sánchez (16-5, 2.58 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) was scheduled to get the pill for the Phillies at CBP in this Game 2 of a 3-game series, with Houtson sending RHP HunterGreen (5-3, 2.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) to the bump for Game 2 of this 3-game Interleague series. Kalshi odds.​

🚦Trading Thoughts: The Astros (16-21 INTR) have a real Triple Crown threat in DH Yordan Álvarez (.317/37/93), but the Phillies have a band of bad-ass bearded brothers like ZZ Top in DH Kyle Schwarber (.244/40/82), Bryce Harper (.266/27/78), and Brandon Marsh (.274/17/57).

Infielders Trea Turner (.243/17/51), Alec Bohm (245/14/76), and Bryson Stott (.259/9/59)—no relation, although he is a fellow Las Vegan—and C JT Realmuto (.224/10/45) have not let their facial hair overtake their faces, but are also a big part of Philadelphia’s 13-2 run in 15 (Aug. 13-30).

The Phillies were 9-19 when Don Mattingly took over, and after a 68-41 run (through August 30) under the Yankees legend, have surged back into the race and are a team no one will want to play. Expect southpaw Sánchez and the Phillies (24-18 INTR) to cash in at The Bank on Hump Day.

⚾MLB Wednesday Pick: Philadelphia Phillies, Yes, 61¢

The League Phase of the 2026-27 UCL tournament started this week, and Bodø/Glimt will play Harry Kane and powers Bayern Munich at Allianz Arena (Hybrid Grass) in Munich, Germany, in the tourney opener for both clubs on Thursday (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).​

In the FC Bayern München – FK Bodø/Glimt match on Polymarket, Bayern Munich are massive 89% favorites over Bodø/Glimt (4.5%), with a Draw (Tie) trading at 8% (September 7) for this Matchday 1 game. The Total (Goals) was Over 4.5 at Yes 53¢, No 52¢. Bayern -2.5 goals was trading at 52¢.​

This will be the first match ever between German Bundesliga titans Bayern Munich and FK Bodø/Glimt, 4-time champions in the Norwegian Eliteserien. The Glimt (Gleam) are 5-0-0 in their last 5 games (15 GF-6 GA) and had to win in qualifying to get here (to lose to mighty Bayern).​

🚦Trading Thoughts: Manuel Neuer is still playing, and the best team to bet on in professional sports—Bayern Munich—was perfect in August, 6-0-0 (18 GF-7 GA), in matches where the Both Teams to Score (Yes) Prop went a profitable 6-0 in games averaging a robust 4.2 PPG. Mercy.

The BTTS (Yes) was also 4-1 in Bodø/Glimt’s last 5 matches, and this club is for real and leads the Eliterserien with a 14-2-2 mark and guys like Kasper Høgh (7 goals, 4 assists), Andreas Helmersen (6 goals), Hakon Evgen (5 goals), and the versatile Ole Dirk Blomberg (4 goals, 5 assists).

FCB never loses and also seems to give up goals, so looking for the right number of goals to lay and choosing an anticipated number of goals before you see the numbers is a good handicapping approach. The Gleam should score 1-2 times here, with Michael Oilse and Bayern getting 4-6.

⚽2026 UCL League Phase Picks: Bayern -2.5, Yes 58¢, Over 4.5 goals, Yes 52¢, BTTS, Yes 58¢

There is a great NFC West battle as the second game on the 2026 NFL Regular Season schedule between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (Grass) in Melbourne, Australia on Friday night (Netflix, 8:35 ET/7:35 CT/5:25 PT).

In the NFL Week 1 San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams market at Kalshi, traders are betting on Aaron Donald and the Rams (63%) vs. Brock Purdy and the 49ers (37%). The Total is 48.5, with the Point Spread seeing LA -3.5 (Yes 51¢, No 50¢, Kalshi) at MCG for this NFL Melbourne Game.

🚦Trading Thoughts: Looking at all of the meetings between these two this decade, we see San Francisco (79-72-3) is 8-5 SU, going an impressive 5-2 in the 7 meetings in Lipstick City. This game will count as a Home game for Puka Nacua and the Rams. LA is 3-1 in the last 4 overall meetings.

The G is grass, but the G isn’t used to American football, and the Rams and Niners may find the footing a little bit softer than they would like, but we will see. With Matt Stafford and Purdy, the ball will be in the air a lot, but both teams possess solid D’s (LAR 20.4 PPG, #10; SF 21.8 PPG, #13.

Kyren Williams and LA had the #1 Scoring Offense in the NFL last year (30.5 PPG) and were also #1 in Passing Yards Per Game (269.1). With Stafford healthy, Williams to run the ball, and WR Nacua (Groin) expected to play, the Rams should put up 24 or more in Melbourne.

But how many points can RB Christian McCaffrey and SF muster on the island that gave us AC/DC? After all, the starters on offense for the 49ers are all hobbled, including McCaffrey, WRs Mike Evans and De’Zhayn Stribling, TE George Kittle, and FB Kyle Juszczyk. And Deebo is just old.

🏈NFL Week 1 Friday Night Down Under Pick: Over 48.5, No, 53¢

The football programs at #25 Missouri and Kansas have improved much in the last decade, with the Jayhawks far removed from an 0-12 season 11 years ago (2015) and the Tigers 5-7 that same year (1-7 in the SEC. Now, Mizzou and Kansas expect to win and make respectable Bowl games.

These two former Big 12 rivals will meet at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium (Shaw Sports Turf) in a non-conference tilt from Lawrence, Kansas on Friday night (FOX, 8 EDT/7 CDT/5 PDT). This long-running rivalry between these two Midwestern universities is called the Border War.

At Kalshi, in the Missouri vs Kansas game, traders have Missouri as the big favorite (67%) to win on enemy turf, with Kansas the home underdog (33%). The Point Spread is Missouri -6.5 (points), with the Total (Over/Under) trading at 51.5.

🚦Trading Thoughts: Missouri leads the all-time series 57-55-2, thanks to an 8-4 run in the last 12 series meetings and a 4-game win streak vs the Jayhawks (MIZ 147-KAN 86)—three times in Kansas City (Missouri) and once in Columbia. This will be the first meeting in Lawrence in 21 years.

The last three Tigers wins over rivals Kansas have all come by double-digits (28, 14, 11). With Heisman Trophy candidate RB Ahmad Hardy (1,624 rushing yards, 16 TDs) and a run at a CFP spot, they can win 3 of 5 against Texas A & M, Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Ouch.

The Jayhawks are led by QB Isaiah Marshall and started the season vs patsies LIU in Week 1 after a 3-game losing streak to end last year, when they went 5-7, losing 5 of their last 6 in games where KU gave up 38.2 PPG, making sure the only bowl they would be performing in was the toilet bowl.

🏈NCAA Week 1 Missouri-Kansas Side Pick: Missouri -5.5, Yes 50¢

➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we will look at the 2026 Emmy Awards on Sunday, LSU hedging on Lane Kiffin bonuses, Kalshi becoming the official prediction market of the ATP, and previews from the F1 Spanish Grand Prix, the NASCAR race near St Louis, and the Sunday Night and Monday Night Football openers in the NFL.”

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