The state of New Jersey filed a petition ahead of the deadline for the U.S. Supreme Court to hear a case on the legality of sports prediction markets, marking the first time the High Court is being asked to opine on the industry that’s growing like a weed since the 2024 Presidential Election.​

Although this is a massive development and something players have been watching and waiting for, don’t expect quick resolutions or magic wands to change it or make it go away. SCOTUS usually takes just 1-2% of the cases, and the bench is already loaded with current things to rule on.​

In April, an appeals court in New Jersey ruled for Kalshi, while last month, an appeals court here in Nevada said sports contracts aren’t the same thing, fall under the bet category, and are subject to regulation by the powerful Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB).​

These opposing rulings from the Garden State (Third Circuit) and the Silver State (Ninth Circuit) hint at an eventual path to the SCOTUS between November (2026) and April (2027). That means until (at least) then, prediction markets will continue to operate legally where they can.​

That means prediction markets will keep raking in shitloads of money from August to April 2027, with the King of Prediction Markets and Sportsbooks—Father Football—and a potential prohibition in the U.S. somewhere down the line seeming like a very unlikely scenario.​

Too much money is involved, and states want the same rules and tax revenues that apply to sportsbooks to apply to prediction markets, too. And no one wants to go back to the days when sports betting was driven to (illegal) offshore operators. Good luck getting them to pay up.​

From certification to its decision, PASPA took over a year and a half, and with the docket already packed, the Midterm Elections coming up in November, and the constant uncertainty of day-to-day life for Americans with Donald Trump in the White House, don’t expect anything now.​

The new term for the current (17th Chief Justice John G.) Roberts Court will reconvene in 12 days, on Monday, October 5, 2026. Clarifying the legality of prediction markets in all 50 states may benefit gambling companies and casinos, as well as Kalshi and Polymarket. Stay tuned.​

Logic and progress aren’t mutually exclusive.​

The Supreme Court may be appointed God in the current Prediction Market reality, but expecting anything black-and-white or a quick, clear resolution seems doubtful now. The biggest issue in the space is the Sports category and whether it's the same as sports betting. Most agree that it is.

Regulating these products and markets should be relatively easy, since the federal government and its agencies have long dealt with contract-based markets. Sportsbooks should also be able to add prediction markets to their menus if they want to.

Hey, look what DraftKings and FanDuel did by not caring about the fight—they both opened their own prediction markets and now do both. Much can be learned from this if the parties want to.

Demonizing prediction markets has done sportsbooks no favors, backed by lobbyists, state gaming commissions, Indian Tribes, and good ol' boys who want to keep their slice of the pie. This seems like the marijuana issue and letting states determine if they want to sell weed.

Even if the states don’t legally sell this plant, people still obtain it. And with sports betting, the same sad reality applies, be it through an illegal bookie, a VPN, or another means like offshore. This is not good for anyone. Only the lawyers are getting rich now, and both “sides” yell at each other.

Anyway, like PAPSA, this is something the Supreme Court does need to rule on and/or at least clarify. But will the current makeup of the nine Justices matter? It always seems to, but this is tricky as Trump appointed CFTC Head Michael Selig and has given him his backing and blessing.

One conflict may be Donald Trump Jr.’s involvement on the boards of both Kalshi and Polymarket. This stinks and reeks of favoritism and graft. Peter Thiel and his Founders Fund venture capital firm have been deep into prediction markets. The less these guys are involved, the better for PMs.

Assuming any of the perceived six Conservative Justices (Chief Justice Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett) will all lean one way or the other is probably a huge mistake. And it will obviously depend on the specific argument.

Also, pretending to know what the three Liberal Justices (Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Ketanji Brown Jackson) will do is predicting. Still, it seems the more progressive thinkers aren’t so progressive when it comes to prediction markets? My guess? Eleven percent understand them.

This may mean the three Trump-appointed Justices (Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Coney Barrett) may back their big boy at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and legalize the sports category (and all). Chief Justice Roberts agrees with them, and they vote by party and philosophical lines.

This court has sided with the Orange King at times, and denies him at others. But this one is a very serious issue and probably won’t be looked at and/or ruled on for a year. With Roberts in charge, at least we can hope this gets resolved in a Common Sense way that Ben Franklin would approve of.

Barrons reported that prediction market giant Kalshi will not be opening markets on whether or not the U.S. The Supreme Court will hear or decide on any landmark case regarding regulations in the prediction market industry, currently regulated by the CFTC and Chairman Michael Selig,​

With so many battles in the states regarding Kalshi’s legality (primarily being offered as a Sports bet platform) now, and the nature of betting on whether or not one can bet (or trade) in the future is the subject matter, Kalshi did the moral and sane thing and said we don’t need a market.

Kalshi said its strategies in the various courtrooms or corporate actions might influence the Supreme Court's decision somewhere down that murky road. The NYC-based company also can't use any market to hedge against a potential ruling.​

The powerful 9-member High Court in Washington, D.C., was involved in a previous landmark sports gambling decision when, in a 6-3 decision, the justices ruled the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) unconstitutional on May 14, 2018.​

One of CBS’s other two iconic Reality Competition hits, Big Brother 28, is now down to the final 4 HouseGuests (HG) in Studio City, California, and the season has been entertaining and has had great ratings. It is still a mystery who will win the season and the $750,000 grand prize finale night.​

The trading on prediction markets for Big Brother US has never been better, with Kalshi offering more than a dozen markets this season and Polymarket’s Big Brother 28 Winner market currently sitting at $173,012 in trading volume on September 21 at Polymarket US.​

Over at Kalshi in the Big Brother Season 28 Winner trading ($5,429,180 volume), the numbers are slightly different in who traders think might win, but radically different in volume, so either Polymarket is behind in this Entertainment niche—they are—or Kalshi has found a good one.​

Kalshi had this (winner’s) market up before Polymarket, offers 2nd Place, 3rd place, and weekly eviction markets, and thus has more liquidity and interest from the trading public. Many on Twitter chirp about Polymarket and Kashi and faked volume, but that is another (boring) matter.​

Anyway, back to Studio City, where at this point in the Big Brother 28 US House (Day 77, Week 11), there are just 4 of the 18 players left: two CBS Survivor alumni (Rick Devens and Dee Valladares), and two other HouseGuests, Taylor Brown (HoH) and Drew Campbell.​

On September 21 at Kalshi—after Melody Morris was evicted—Rick Devens (39%) was the top ‘Yes’ choice, followed by Survivor ally Dee Valladares (31%), Drew Campbell (13%), and Taylor Brown (18%). Campbell and Morris were in a Reality TV relationship since the season started.​

🚦Trading Thoughts: The résumés of the remaining HGs are very different. PM favorite Devens—a 43-year-old former TV news anchor from Macon, Georgia—has won the Head of Household (HoH) competition 2 times, the Power of Veto (PoV) 3 times, and the Block Buster survival 2 times.

Valladares only has 2 HoHs; Brown has just 1 PoV win and is the current HoH. Campbell is the wild card this year, floating between sides. He has 1 HoH, 2 PoVs, and 2 Block Buster wins. Taylor hid Drew’s hair brush one night and all of LA came to a complete standstill. This is Big Brother.

Rick has the strongest game résumé, followed by Drew. Dee and Taylor are positioned well, and history shows women and minorities have a great chance of winning BBUS, as they’ve done in the last 5 BBUS seasons (BB24—Xavier, BB25—Taylor, BB26—Jag, BB26—Chelsie, BB27—Ashley).

The value in buying Rick or Dee now is gone unless you can pick who will survive from now until October 1 (Finale night), and it’s unclear if either Survivor alum has the onions to put up the other. The Jury may like Rick more than Dee, so her best bet may be to cut him, as his résumé is better.

Dee would probably beat Taylor or Drew (unless the jury is bitter) and Melody. Taylor can beat Melody, but can she beat Drew in a theoretical F2—unlikely—and can she shock Rick or Dee? Taylor’s value is the best, but the best BB player seldom wins. In Survivor, the best castaway almost always wins.

Rick Devens has easily played the best Social and Comp game this season and deserves the butter. Big Brother US airs Sundays and Wednesdays, with evictions on Thursdays, and ends when a new champion is crowned there on the set on the night of Thursday, October 1 (CBS, 8 EDT/7 CDT).​

📺Big Brother Season 28 Winner HouseGuest Value Pick: Taylor Brown, Yes 14¢​

📺Big Brother Season 28 Winner Deserved Winner Pick: Rick Devens, Yes 39¢​

Seven actors have played the famous role of James Bond, with Daniel Craig playing 007 for a fifth and final time in No Time to Die (2021). A search is now underway for a new actor to play James Bond for Bond 26 (working movie title for now), to be directed by Dennis Villeneuve.​

Amazon Studios MGM will handle production of the much-anticipated film, with Amy Pascal and David Hetman leading the production. Steven Knight will be the scriptwriter. Pre-production and casting are ongoing, with filming anticipated in 2027 for a hopeful late 2027 or early 2028 release.​

Before Craig (2006-2021), James Bond was portrayed by Pierce Brosnan (1995-2002), Timothy Dalton (1987-1989), Roger Moore (1973-1985), George Lazenby (1969), David Niven (1967), and the original “shaken, not stirred” 007, Sean Connery (1962-1967, 1971, 1983).​

So who will be the next James Bond? This is why prediction markets exist: Dr. ‘No’ contract.​

At Kalshi, the wisdom of the collective cinematic masses thought Jack Lowden (44%) had the best chance (Sept 21), followed by Callum Turner (36%), Jack O’Connell (10%), and Jack Barton (10%). The public has spoken. And they apparently want a White bad-guy-killing man named Jack, Jack.​

Also on the public’s 007 radar in the Next James Bond Film: Actor Cast as James Bond market are Harris Dickinson (9%), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (7%), Theo James (5%), Aaron Pierre (4%), Henry Cavill (4%), Jacob Elordi (4%), Regé-Jean Page (4%), Damson Idris (4%), James Norton (3%), Paul Mescal (3%), and Tom Francis (3%).​

British-Zimbwean Page would be an interesting choice as it would stray from the expected older Caucasian actor. The 38-year-old Page lives in London, attended the Drama Center London, and starred in the first season of the Netflix show Bridgerton (2020).

Three teams from the 2026 EFL Championship will be promoted to England’s top flight of soccer, the English Premier League, and the new season is underway, with 24 clubs looking to make that huge financial and competitive leap and earn a chance at the UEFA Champions League.​

Last year, Coventry City, Hull City, and Ipswich City were promoted to the EPL from the EFL. At the same time, Oxford City, future bet legends Leicester City, and Sheffield Wednesday were relegated to League One. Lincoln City, Cardiff City, and Bolton Wanderers were promoted to the EFL from League One.​

The club traders at Kalshi are expecting to make it back to the EPL are Jarrod Bowen (4 goals) and West Ham United (54%), with the Hammers off to a 4-2-1 start, followed by Middlesbrough (9%), and promotion darlings and Ryan Reynolds-owned Wrexham (7%), who were promoted a record three straight times (2022-2025).​

Following in the EFL Championship Champion market on September 21 ($49,642 trading volume) at Kalshi were Southampton (4%), West Bromwich (4%), Birmingham (3%), Swansea City (2%), Sheffield United (2%), Millwall (2%), Norwich City (2%),​

With 1% is a laundry list of perceived losers in Blackburn, Bolton, Bristol City, Burnley, Cardiff City, Charlton, Derby, Lincoln, Preston, Portsmouth, QPR, Stoke City, Watford, West Bromwich Albion, and Wolverhampton, many of whom have already played at one time or another in the EPL.​

🚦Trading Thoughts: There is plenty of soccer left in the EFL in 2026 and 2027, and half of the teams in this league will be more concerned with being relegated to League One than they will be of achieving that magical dream of being promoted to the Premiership and making The Final Cut.

The Hammers have already scored 20 times in 7 matches, led by Jarrod Bowen (4 goals), Konstantinos Mavropanos (3), and Joël Piroe (3 goals), and WHU hammered Wrexham 6-0 in East London, humbling the Red Dragons, who traders are giving little chance of being promoted.

Southampton (4-2-1) had the same great start as West Ham, but the Saints were penalized 4 points to start the season for their involvement in the spygate incident during the 2025-26 EFL Playoffs, which also saw them booted from the playoffs, so will this club be motivated? Mad? Both?

⚽2026-27 EFL Championship Promoted Clubs Picks: West Ham, Wolverhampton, Southampton

QB Gunner Stockton and the #2 ranked (AP) Georgia Bulldogs (3-0, 0-0 in SEC) open the doors of Sanford Stadium (Tifton 419 Bermuda Grass) in Athens, Georgia to face QB John Mateer and #24 Oklahoma (2-1, 0-0 in SEC) in SEC play on Saturday (ESPN, 3:30 EDT/2:30 CDT/12:30 PDT).

In NCAAF Week 3, the Bulldogs trampled Arkansas under foot (45-17) after Georgia thrashed non-conference patsies Tennessee State (63-3) in Week 1 and Western Kentucky (70-20) in Week 2. Oklahoma suffered a revealing loss at Michigan in Week 2 and plunged in the polls.

In the Oklahoma vs. Georgia game, prediction market traders have Georgia (83%) as the big home favorites between the Hedges with Oklahoma (17%) needing to avoid a second early-season loss. At DraftKings, Georgia were 13.5-point favorites with the Total (Points) at 42.5 on September 21.

🚦Trading Thoughts: These two legendary college football programs have surprisingly only met once, with the Dawgs winning in double-OT in the 2018 CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl (54-48). But they will definitely play more now that the Sooners are in the SEC.

Oklahoma improved much defensively, but looked pretty pedestrian in the loss at the Big House and with Georgia (66.5 PPG, #1) scoring so many points this year, the Total of 52 looks small. With Mateer and WR Isiah Satenga III, the visitors have a shot, but the site is worth more than we know.

Georgia has a good RB (Nate Frazie), a trio of good WRs (White-Helton, Dandridge, Taylor). Still, it's the Bulldogs TE room that never ends (in Time or Depth) with Elyiss Williams (ranked #1 recruit 2025), Ethan Barbour (#12, 2025), Lawson Luckie, Jaden Redell, and Kaiden Prothro (#2 2026).

Toss in Lincoln Keyes (#8, 2026), Brayden Fogle (#11, 2026), Colton Heinrich, David Lalaian, and the #1 recruit in 2027 (Jaxon Dollar), and #7 in 2028 (Asa Wall), and the place that gave us Brock Bowers (Raiders) is now the new TE University. Who needs WRs when you have nine Tight Ends?

🏈NCAAF Week 4 Saturday Picks: Georgia -10, Over 52.5

The SEC Conference serves up another tasty piece of pie in Week 4 when QB Marcel Reed and #8 Texas A&M (2-0, 0-0 in SEC) face QB Sam Leavitt and #7 LSU (2-0, 0-0 in SEC) from Tiger Stadium (Celebration Bermuda Grass) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Saturday night (ABC, 7:30 ET/4:30 PT).

This game is not only big in the SEC, but will have massive CFP implications in three months, with the loser suffering its first loss and maybe the one that costs them the CFP. The Aggies have rolled over Missouri State (50-0), Arizona State (48-20), and Kentucky (XX-XX), outscoring foes 98-20.

Foes of the Tigers have also been pummeled (96 PF-24 PA), with LSU topping Clemson (51-20), Louisiana Tech (45-14) and then-#8 Ole Miss (XX-XX) to get to this point. Like with Georgia in the previous preview, the swampy Louisiana site (Death Valley) is worth its weight in King Cake.

The prediction market Kalshi has LSU (55%) as the favorite over Texas A&M (45%) in this NCAA College Football Top 10 clash, Texas A&M vs. LSU game. Popular online sportsbook DraftKings has LSU as 3-point chalk with the Total at 56.5 (Moneyline: LSU -155, Texas A&M +130).

🚦Trading Thoughts: Unlike Georgia-Oklahoma, LSU and A&M have played several times—64 to be exact in The Gulf War—with the Tigers 35-23-2, but A&M winning the last 2. The first time they played was in 1899 in College Station, where A&M rolled (52-0) when Mitch McConnell was 22.

But all these numbers seem meaningless for this one in The Age of Nil, with LSU having a new QB (Leavitt, ASU) and A&M happy not to need a transfer behind center, with Reed returning to campus after leading the Aggies to a CFP appearance last season.

It’s hard to see the defenses—as good as they are—keeping up with the offenses here, and a shootout seems imminent at Death Valley on a Saturday night where there is an unmatched magic during the NCAAF season. And that time is now. Dual-threat Leavitt gives LSU a chance at the CFP.

🏈NCAAF Week 4 Saturday Picks: LSU -3, Over 56.5

The Buffalo Bills (3-0, 1-0 at Home) have a new stadium (Highmark), and QB Josh Allen and the gang will line up against the Los Angeles Chargers (0-2, 0-1 on the Road) in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon for an AFC matchup (FOX, 1 EDT/12 CDT/10 PDT) important to the enigmatic Bolts.​

In NFL Week 2, the Bills broke in their new digs by throttling the Lions in a Thursday night game. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, and LA suffered a second straight nasty defeat, losing at home to Las Vegas in Week 2 after falling to Arizona in Week 1. The Bolts are in peril.​

At Kalshi, in the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Buffalo (74%) is the choice of NFL traders, with the visiting Chargers (26%) solid underdogs. At Kalshi, the Bills were favored by 7.5 points (Yes 56c) with the Total at 50.5 in early trading (Monday afternoon).​

🚦Trading Thoughts: Using the last 8 meetings and the small but recent sample size in this series to handicap the game’s winner SU and ATS, we see that RB James Cook III and Buffalo are 3-5 SU and 5-3-0 ATS with the Total split 4-4-0. The Under is a powerful 8-2-0 in the last 10 Bolts games.​

Even though the visitors hold the edge in the lifetime series (LAC 25-14-2), there are many reasons to like Buffalo here. The brand-new stadium and all the electricity are a big part of it. Allen is a better QB than Herbert, too. And he can run. The Week 1 win at Houston was revealing.​

The Chargers will try to slow the pace down here in upstate New York where the temperatures are forecast to be ideal for the last Saturday of the summer (66°F-69°F). You can leave the parka at home for this one. Picking the home team to win here seems like the logical approach.​

🏈NFL Week 2 Sunday Game Winner Pick: Bills, Yes 75¢​

QB Dak Prescott and Dallas (1-1) samba with QB Lamar Jackson and Baltimore (1-1) in an interconference and international battle from Maracanã Stadium (Grass) in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, South America, on Sunday afternoon (CBS, 4:25 EDT/3: 25 CDT/1:25 PDT) in the NFL Rio Game.​

The Cowboys looked bad against Cam Skattebo and NFC East rivals New York in Week 1, and having the Giants improved and with a Harbaugh at the helm is a bad thing for (Not) America’s Team. While Baltimore packed the Colts up in the Mayflower moving vans again in Week 1.​

The choice of NFL traders at Polymarket US in the Baltimore vs. Dallas market is RB Derrick Henry and the Ravens (59%) over the WRs CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and the Cowboys (42%), with the Point Spread trading at 2.5 and the Total (Points) at 52.5 on September 21.​

🚦Trading Thoughts: In the last 5 meetings between these two, Baltimore is 4-1 SU and 3-2-0 ATS, covering the last 2 in a row in games that went Over (Over 4-1 L5 in series). These teams combined for 53 (BAL 28-25) and 51 (BAL 34-17) points in those last meetings from 2020 and 2024.​

Baltimore has been exceptional on the road, and few have noticed. In 2023, the Blackbirds were 7-1 away; in 2024, they went 6-3; in 2025, Baltimore went 5-3 on the road. The Ravens also won at Naptown in Week 1 of the 2026 season. But this is in Rio. Does this count as a true road game?​

There has been much talk about how poor the field conditions are in Brazil at Maracanã Stadium. One bird on Twitter chirped that this NFL game might be moved to Dallas, and another sang ”...beyond the NBC report, there are lumps, ripples, humps, and potholes within that field in Rio.”​

Take off your panties, fellas. Football, humps, and potholes are a match made in heaven. We play.​

🏈NFL Week 2 Sunday Game Winner Pick: Ravens, Yes 59¢​

➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we will look at the tip-off of the 2026 WNBA Playoffs and updated WNBA champion numbers, the 2026 MTV VMA Awards, the weekend’s NASCAR and F1 races in Kansas City and Azerbaijan, and have football previews and picks for the NCAAF #12 USC-#16 Oregon and #20 Texas A&M-#11 LSU and the NFL’s Rams at Broncos on SNF and Eagles at Bears on MNF.”