State of New York Sues Kalshi

On July 31, more shots were fired across the bow of the S.S. Kalshi, as New York Attorney General Letitia James and New York Governor Kathy Hochul sued the New York City-based prediction market, saying the company runs an illegal and unlicensed gambling operation in the Empire State.

James petitioned the court to stop Kalshi from operating in the state unless it gets a gaming license (and pays the state of New York taxes). All of this happens in the wake of several other states battling Kalshi (and Polymarket) and college and pro football season on the horizon.

The NY AG alleges the markets on Kalshi are "quintessentially gambling." James also said the prediction markets expose those 21 and under to addiction. The state wants financial penalties, restitution, and a permanent injunction as the States vs. The Feds argument keeps boiling over.

"New York's gambling laws protect children from underage betting and help combat gambling addiction. No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple," James said in a prepared statement.

So we now have PM Statement Wars: Episode 57: State which is home to PMs sues PMs.

"States can't just shut down a federally licensed exchange. This would also just hurt New Yorkers, who would be driven offshore. We love New York, we love New Yorkers, and New Yorkers love our product," a Kalshi spokesperson said in a statement to the press, deeming it as “political theater.”

Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert Denault reacted, “...any federally regulated exchange that’s operating with a federal license and overseen by a federal government can suddenly be subject to the whims of state criminal enforcement if the AG of a particular state wakes up and decides one day that these contracts actually come within New York state gambling law.”

“That's not how any exchange in U.S. history has ever operated,” Denault contended.

Tarek Mansour, the CEO of Kalshi, said. "Well, you're going to have a lot of pissed off New Yorkers if we (Kalshi) got shut down in New York.” Stay tuned. In April, the always-perceived-as-liberal state of New York also sued prediction markets Coinbase and Gemini Titan.

The Kalshi vs. the state of New York battle is not only being played out in the courts but also in the media, where New York Governor Kathy Hochul [D] took a shot at Kalshi on Twitter (X) and Facebook, claiming the prediction market runs an illegal betting operation.

Hochul’s campaign was in sync with the Empire State’s own lawsuit against Kalshi we wrote about above. Hochul tweeted, “There are some lines you don’t cross. Turning cancer patients into a prop bet is one of them. And that’s exactly why New York won’t let Kalshi break our laws.”

Is this a predictable narrative from a Democratic governor in a blue [D]? No. Republican red states like Kentucky, Utah, and Nevada aren’t big fans of Kalshi either. Some 100 years ago, Republican Calvin Coolidge was in the White House, and gambling was still illegal here in dry heat Las Vegas.

After Hochul slammed Kalshi on Elon Musk’s mental machine, Kalshi CEO Luana Lopes Lara bit back on X, saying, “That is a flat-out lie. The markets are on FDA approvals, which help researchers and investors develop life-saving drugs more effectively and faster.

“I’m here if you want to learn more about these markets and how they can bring more transparency and efficiency to a complex industry,” Lopes Lara wrote to Hochul. All this made the New York governor look very silly, and Kalshi’s Lopes Lara makes the logical, adult point.

Hochul and her PR team either can’t or refuse to understand the nature or truths within these Medicine and Health markets, yet the state is home to Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, and other prediction markets. Not getting tax revenues like other forms of recreation makes NY mad?

So in the progressive state of New York, you can bet on sports online at DraftKings, FanDuel, or any other legal sportsbook, or you can play the NY Lottery. Still, God forbid you want to bet on ‘When will the FDA Approve Intellia Therapeutics’ lonvo-z?’ or the Big Brother 28 Winner.

We have talked about some of the states seemingly at war with Kalshi, and hearing that the extremely Conservative and Red state of Utah may be next to block the prediction market from operating in the Beehive State comes as no big surprise, with such a strong Mormon presence.

A roommate of mine who lived in a strict Mormon town said they wouldn’t bring soda with caffeine into the house and would have to leave it out on the porch. Demonizing caramel-colored sugar water is funny when you think about it, so demonizing prediction markets in Utah is a no-brainer.

This is a state in the 21st Century that actually has a ‘No Hands-Free Biking’ law (Utah Code § 41-6a-1112), under which “anyone riding a bicycle or moped must keep at least one hand on the handlebars at all times.” Of course, trading on the #1 movie in 2026 must be the work of the Devil.

Utah scored a big victory over Kalshi in the federal courts last week when US District Judge Robert Shelby granted summary judgment to the state, closing Kalshi’s claim case against the state claiming federal oversight (as a commodity) should overrule the state’s authority not to ban trades.

Daniel Wallach, a sports gambling lawyer, expects Utah to join the growing list of states where Kalshi is blocked. Whether the state shuts Kalshi down or the New York City-based prediction market run by CEO Tarek Mansour decides to shut itself down.

Utah doesn’t have a state lottery or legalized online sports gambling. The state is between 42% and 60% Mormon, and The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints opposes all forms of gambling, and now a brother can only have one wife. I am unsure if this is a good or a bad thing.

On August 4, 2026, Novig officially transitioned from a sweepstakes to a federally regulated prediction market. The former sweepstakes model has now been replaced with a peer-to-peer sports trading order book, with no traditional house vigorish (juice).

The launch by Novig came six weeks after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved the company to operate as a Designated Contract Maker (DCM) and evolve into a prediction market exchange, with the Feds' blessing. Novig has $6 billion in trading volume.

Is CFTC head Michael Selig like Don Corleone in The Godfather? Of course not; his name is Michael, not Vito, and The Godfather was fiction and a movie, while Selig and prediction markets are real and involve billions of dollars in trading. And some say, a trillion dollars by 2030.

Besides launching and then dealing with legal issues and suing the states of New York, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Washington, Novig also announced on July 30 that it was the official prediction market for an Empire State MLB club—the New York Mets—the first of its kind.

Days later in early August, the New York Yankees announced they had signed a deal with Polymarket. We will have more on both those deals in the Tuesday, August 18 volume of The Prediction Report. Ironically, like Kalshi and Polymarket, Novig is a New York City-based company.

The 2026 Emmy Awards are approaching and will air on Monday, September 14 (NBC, 8 EDT/7 CDT/5 PDT), so we continue our extensive look at the major and minor categories with the ‘Emmys 2026: ‘Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie’ in this TPR issue. ​

DTF St Louis’ Linda Cardellini (71%) is appearing to be the Emmy winner, followed by Constance Zimmer from Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette (18%), Youn Yuh-jung from Beef (5.5%), and Dakota Fanning from All Her Fault (6.6%) on August 9 at Polymarket ($31,061 volume).​

Laurie Metcalf (2%) from Monster: The Ed Gein Story and Joy Sunday (2%) from DTF St Louis are also nominated, but traders at the popular PM give them both very little chance of walking on stage.

➤Trading Thoughts: More than 27,000 professionals and members of the Television Academy vote for the Emmy Award winners, so the results we see annually are more of a pure mathematical representation of who probably deserves this prestigious award handed out in Tinseltown.​

By contrast, the Heisman Award in NCAA College Football is voted on by a panel of 931 voters, while just 9 Supreme Court justices determine the power to US President (or King?). The 27,000-plus should determine the latter, while the Emmys being decided by 9 sounds fair.​

The HBO Max limited series DTF St Louis premiered on March 1, 2026, and the quirky dark comedy became an instant hit. Cardellini plays Carol Love-Smernitch, a woman involved in a deadly love triangle co-starring Jason Bateman and David Harbour.

🗽Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie Pick: Linda Cardellini, Yes, 71¢

10 conferences in the NCAA Division I Football Subdivision (FBS) will fight for the 2026-27 CFP National Championship and one mighty independent in Notre Dame, but at Kalshi in the Conference to Win the National Championship, there are five strikes you can trade on.

The leader is the Big Ten Conference (38%), which gave us last season’s national champions in undefeated Indiana and the winners the year before (Ohio State) and the year before (Michigan). The legendary Southeastern Conference, aka the SEC, is a close second (37%).

Following is the ‘Any Other Conference/Independent’ mix (12%), which gives the (‘Yes’) traders the six G6 conferences (AAC, CUSA, MWC, MVC, Pac-12, Sun Belt) and Notre Dame, ranked #5 in the preseason poll out of the AFCA Coaches Poll. The ACC (10%) and the Big 12 (5%) followed.

➤Trading Thoughts: Two teams (James Madison, Tulane) from the G6 made it to the 16-team CFP, but expect only one this time around. The Big Ten has the same three monsters—#1-ranked Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon—who can win it all, while the SEC has Texas and Georgia.​

One thing to remember when using or being aware of this market is the possibility that an ACC team—specifically Malachi Toney and power Miami—can make as much noise and get to the same place the Hurricanes did last year (CFP Championship Game). They can. And they might.​

That means an ACC Championship (57%, Kalshi), undefeated Regular Season (25%, Polymarket), and this Conference to Win National Championship (10%) are all significant with the Hurricanes so good. Miami was trading at 8% to win the CFP at Kalshi on August 12 ($11,057,974 volume).​

🏈Conference to Win the 2026-27 CFP National Championship Pick: Big Ten, Yes, 38¢

After handicapping the Power Four conferences—the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12—we continue previewing the Group of Six (G6) with the ‘2026 American Athletic Conference Champion’ market. We’ll wrap up the G6 previews in the next issue, with the MWC and Pac-12 conferences.​

Service academy school Navy (19¢) is the traders’ favorite to win the conference with UTSA (15¢), Memphis (14¢), South Florida (12¢), Army (12¢), East Carolina (12¢), Tulane (12¢), North Texas (6¢), Temple (6¢), and Florida Atlantic (5¢) all following on August 7 at Robinhood Predictions.​

The AAC underdogs are Florida Atlantic (5¢), Tulsa (5¢), Rice (2¢), Charlotte (2¢), and UAB (1¢).

➤Trading Thoughts: In a market related to the AAC, 25% bought ‘Yes’ at Polymarket that Army will be an NCAAF: Team to Have an Undefeated Season. The Black Knights' schedule reveals the game at Memphis (October 31) and the year-end classic with Navy (December 12) will loom large.​

This conference is really wide open, and 7 schools could win this season, including UTSA, East Carolina, South Florida, Memphis, Army, Navy, and Tulane, who feature RB Jamauri McClure and Jaylin Lucas (FSU) and WRs Anthony Brown-Stephens and Destyn Hill (LSU).​

Navy will have the best rushing attack in the nation again, and Army will also be good, but it seems the Green Wave have the firepower needed to rally from behind and also make a run at a CFP berth for the G6. Last year, two teams (James Madison, Tulane) made the CFP. This year, only one will.​

🏈American Athletic Conference Champion Pick: Tulane, Yes, Bid 10¢, Ask 12¢​

At Robinhood in the 2026 Mountain West Conference Champion market, New Mexico (27¢) is the trader’s slight favorite with RB Jai’Den Thomas, Gatorade National Player of the Year QB Jackson Arnold, and UNLV (25¢), and new MWC members North Dakota State University (23¢).​

QB Micah Alejado and Hawai’i (16¢), Air Force (15¢), Wyoming (3¢), San José State (2¢), Nevada (2¢), UTEP (1%), and Northern Illinois (1¢). The MWC lost heavyweights Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and Utah State to the evolving Pac-12 Conference.​

The MWC and the FBS welcomed in DI FCS powerhouse North Dakota State (186-21 since 2011), a team with a record 18 national championships and a dedicated fanbase, and anyone betting on the Bison to make some noise this season and flip a grandpa or two may be pleasantly surprised.

➤Trading Thoughts: This is a cool NCAAF Futures market with new faces and five schools who could win the MWC in Air Force, Hawai’i, New Mexico, NDSU, and UNLV. Losing Boise State and SDSU was a big blow to the MWC, but life goes on, long after the thrill of living is gone.​

UNLV is at Hawai’i (September 5) in a big early-season test for both teams, and the Rebels are in Albuquerque to face NM in a late-season showdown (November 14), but UNLV does get newbies NIU and NDSU in Sin City. NDSU is also at Hawai’i (October 24) and New Mexico (November 14).​

Welcome to the MWC, mascot Thundar and Bison fans. Now go west and try to win in Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Honolulu, and San José. But if there was a Little Engine Who Could, it’s NDSU with QB Nathan Hayes, RB DJ Scott, and talented KR specialist Jackson Williams, Jr.​

🏈Mountain West Conference Champion Pick: North Dakota State, Bid 21¢, Ask 22¢​

Randy Arozarena and the Mariners (56-60, 23-24 Road) head to The Bronx to face Ben Rice and the Yankees (64-51, 27-25 Home) for Game 2 of a 3-game series from Yankee Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) on Wednesday night (ESPN, MLB.tv, 7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT).

The scheduled starting pitchers for this AL matchup see Mariners RHP Bryce Miller (4-6, 3.08 ERA) facing Yankees RHP Will Warren (8-6, 4.18 ERA). The Bronx Bombers are 2-1 vs the M’s this season, winning 5-0 and 5-3 in Seattle after the Mariners won the opening meeting, 2-1.

At the leading prediction market, Kalshi, in the American League Championship Series market, the Yankees—still without injured superstar Aaron Judge—had a 25% chance of winning the Junior Circuit again, with the M’s trading at 18%. The surging Red Sox were at 16% (as of August 12).

➤Trading Thoughts: The travel and time zone reality may hurt the visitors from the Emerald City here, but the hosts are without their big bopper, so bats like Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Jr., and Paul Goldschmidt will have to keep picking up the slack with TB still leading the AL East.

Looking at the lifetime pitching record of each projected starter vs. these opponents, we see Miller is 0-2 with a 7.56 ERA vs the Yankees, in large part due to allowing 8 ER on 11 Hits in his first-ever start vs NY back in 2023. Warren is 1-0 vs. the M’s in 2 appearances with a 1.69 ERA and 13 Ks.

With Boston breathing down the Yankees’ neck and the hosts looking up at the Rays, the defending AL champions really need to start winning. That means improving the hitting (.241 BA, #28) and OBP (.310, #25), problematic with AL MVP Judge now shelved until mid-September.

⚾MLB Wednesday Night MLB Pick: Yankees-Mariners Under 9

Back-to-back champions Barcelona will look for its 30th league title when the 2026-27 La Liga season begins this weekend with two fixtures on Saturday and three more on Sunday. The league will run from August 14, 2026 to May 30, 2027, and each club will play 38 matches.

There are 20 teams in La Liga, with Racing Santander, Deportivo A Coruña, and Málaga all promoted from the 2025-26 La Liga Segunda Division, while Girona, Mallorca, and Oviedo were relegated to Spain’s second tier of soccer after disappointing seasons last time around.

As always, Barcelona (55¢) and Real Madrid (48¢) are the teams expected to contend for the league championship at Robinhood Predictions, with Atlético Madrid (4¢), Real Sociedad (2¢), and the Yellow Submarine Villarreal (2¢) following. But this will be, and always is, a two-team race.

➤Trading Thoughts: On Saturday, Sevilla welcomes Rayo Vallecano to Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium in Sevilla, Spain for this season opener (ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, 1:30 EDT/12:30 CDT/10:30 PDT). Sevilla is 2-2-1 (W-D-L) in the last 5 H2H with Los Franjirrojos (The Red Sashes).

In those five matches (SEV 1 RAY 1, SEV 1 RAY 0, SEV 1 RAY 1, SEV 1 RAY 0, RAY 2 SEV 1), there were only 9 goals, and in the last 4, we have seen just 7 (1.75 GPG). So the Draw and the Under would be the most logical approaches, and both sides will be rusty with this being the first real game.

Host Sevilla (42%) are favored over Vallecano (30%), with a Draw (Tie) trading at 20%. Shopping prediction markets and sportsbooks for a Total (Goals) of 2.5 is the best idea, as Vallecano—which had more Draws (14) than Wins (12) or Losses (12) last season—was much improved last season.

⚽La Liga Saturday Match Pick: Under 2.5 -168 (FanDuel)

There’s a great MMA event coming this weekend with UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on Saturday night (Paramount+, 9 EDT/8 CDT/6 PDT). Makhachev vacated his Lightweight championship to go for his second shot at Welterweight.

Meeting in the octagon in the Welterweight Main Event will be defending champion, Russian Islam Makhachev (28-1-0), and Irishman Ian Machado Garry (17-1-0). Makhachev is currently ranked as the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in MMA by ESPN.

The Early Prelims start at 5 EDT/4 CDT/2 PDT; the Prelims are scheduled to get underway at 7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT, with the Main Card starting around 9 EDT/8 CDT/6 PDT in the City of Brotherly Love and Elbows to the Kidney.

At Polymarket, Islam Makhachev is given a solid 77% chance of winning against Ian Machado Garry (24%) in the scheduled 5-round fight. If you want a different approach and a lower price, look at the ’Who Will be the UFC Welterweight Champion in 2026?’ where Makhachev was 72%

➤Trading Thoughts: Makhachev is shorter and has a reach disadvantage coming in, but his wrestling abilities (13-0 SUB) may end up coming to play in this one, which will mark Makhachev’s first defense at the 170-pound weight class. He beat Jack Della Maddalena (UD) in November.

Although he’s not as big as Machado Garry, Makhachev has quickly become a living legend in this sport, and he is currently riding a 16-bout win streak—tied with MMA legend Anderson Silva for the longest winning streak ever in the UFC. It’s hard to see the focused Russian losing in this spot.

🥊UFC 330 MAIN EVENT Winner Pick: Islam Makhachev, Yes 77¢

Premier League champions Arsenal FC play Erling Haaland and FA Cup winners Manchester City FC in the 2026 FA Community Shield at Principality Stadium (Grassmaster) in Cardiff, Wales, on Sunday, August 16 (ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT) as soccer returns.

The 104th FA Community Shield is being played in Principality Stadium—aka Millennium Stadium—because Wembley Stadium in London—the usual site of the FA Community Shield—has musical artist the Weeknd and his After Hours til Dawn tour in the building.

At DraftKings, Arsenal (+145) was the slight favorite over Manchester City (+150) in this 217th meeting between the two historic EPL clubs, with a Draw at +245. The Total Goals is 2.5 (Over -120, Under -115). Sam Barrott (West Riding County) will be the FA Community Shield referee.

➤Trading Thoughts: The Citizens are 2-2-1 in the last 5 H2H meetings with Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Viktor Gyökeres and the Gunners, winning the last two by 2-1 and 2-0 scores in the EPL (April) and English Carabao Cup (March). The Both Teams To Score (Yes) Prop has gone 4-1.

Both proud sides will care about winning this one in Wales, especially MCFC with Enzo Maresca stepping in for departing club legend Pep Guardiola (3-0-3 in FA Community Shield). With the prolific Norwegian Haaland, Rayan Cherki, and Jérémy Doku, City should score once or twice.

⚽2026 FA Community Shield Winner Pick: Both Teams To Score, Yes -150

 ➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the start of the 2026-27 English Premier League season, Will the SAVE Act become law?, the US political Balance of Power market, and MAC and Pac-12 NCAAF conference and Liga MX Futures previews as well as a handicap of the Atlético Madrid-Málaga Spanish La Liga match on Wednesday..”