Polymarket Problems Seem to be Overflowing
Polymarket is like King Kong, much maligned by people and an easy lightning rod for criticism in the prediction market industry, but the star of the show, eating airplanes like Doritos and climbing up the Empire State Building, located just 3 miles from its company headquarters in Manhattan.
Led by CEO Tarek Mansour, the company returned to US trading late last year after being slapped with a fine by the Feds for running an unregistered derivatives trading platform. Peter Thiel, a controversial billionaire political donor, raised $70 billion in funding to get Polymarket going.
Thiel is one of the founders of the American software company Palantir Technologies, which builds AI platforms for government agencies. Thiel, the 58-year-old German-American and co-founder of PayPal, is the mentor of US Vice President J.D. Vance.
So, perceptions that Thiel protégé Vance can do what’s best for the country come from a man who deals with government contracts and invests in prediction markets—which boomed during the 2024 U.S. Presidential race, where the exchanges predicted the president while generating trading volume.
The prediction markets blew up in popularity with that election, with Thiel, Vance, and President Donald Trump—along with the world’s richest man and Twitter and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk—helping put the Old Orange Man With Cotton Candy Hair back in the White House (again).
And Trump has an administration- and prediction market-friendly “Yes Man” across town at the CFTC in Michael Selig. So the man who helped put Polymarket on the map and supports Trump got what he wanted, and has Vance in his pocket for the Future. Thank god the Supreme Court isn’t...
Besides the under-the-hood problems, Polymarket has other issues, such as its presence in Panama, the security of the exchange after a recent phishing attack by hackers that saw some $3 million in 'users' funds stolen, and an increase in trading fees across most of its trading categories.
The biggest looming problem for Polymarket is the potential $POLY token airdrop and the ongoing lack of clear information and teasing about it, which seems unlikely to materialize. Still, I keep Vicki, Still, I keep Vicki, Still, I keep Vicki waitin'. Those still waiting may care no more?
We headlined our February 25, 2026 edition of TPR “Polymarket Air Drop on the Horizon.” The horizon was apparently bigger than we thought. And Polymarket was less organized. Maybe the horizon is 2027? Either way, Polymarket looks dumb with the lack of communication and hype.
When you have an album coming out with good new songs, like Drake's, or are making upgrades to a product like an iPhone or an automobile, hype is warranted. When you don’t have an airdrop plan and have already wasted so much time, you are only hyping your own inadequacies.
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Regulatory Actions, State Suits Leave a Stigma
After the Feds blocked access to customers here in the United States following a 2022 settlement with the CFTC until December 2, 2025—less than a year ago—Polymarket was finally given the go-ahead to resume trading 13 months ago after acquiring a CFTC-regulated clearinghouse.
On November 12, 2025, Polymarket conducted a soft beta launch via invite-only before rolling out its regular, now CFTC-regulated, trading exchange on December 2, 2025, to customers in the U.S. The return seemed slow, but most of what Polymarket does seems relatively sluggish.
Even after being allowed to return to the US, Polymarket has had to face the dragons of the Gaming lobby, fighting for its extinction—despite DraftKings and FanDuel ultimately opening prediction markets of their own—and the fight in many states to ban its trading operations.
Minnesota wants to make it a felony—and that coming silly law was just shut down by a judge—while Illinois, New Jersey, Nevada, Arizona, Connecticut, New Mexico, and Kentucky continue to battle in the courts via suits, countersuits, federal intervention, and whining.
A look at each state may reveal the deeper reasons for the fight against the PMs. In the Bible Belt in Kentucky, exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket pose a real threat to the Horse Racing industry in the Bluegrass State. We saw no markets on the three Triple Crown races in 2026.
The industry relies very heavily on tax revenues from betting on Horse Racing. In Nevada, the Gaming lobby and NGCB have always been the King Kong. Prediction markets would be bad for business in the Silver State, where Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and FanDuel are all unavailable.
Midwest states Illinois and Minnesota seem to have a simpler, moral beef with prediction markets, deeming them unlicensed gambling operators, basically, a stance seemingly a bit hypocritical with both having state lotteries and Illinois now offering legal sports gambling.
Insider Trading Bruising Polymarket’s Integrity
Polymarket and Polymarket US have both faced several problems, including alleged insider trading, disputed market resolutions, shady marketing, and decisions that call into question common sense and integrity.
One of the most famous Polymarket insider trading cases saw U.S. Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke use classified information to profit some $409,881 on trades made in relation to the raid and capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
And there are numerous other IT cases at Polymarket, both proven (like the Google engineer case) and still in the digital dark. We reported on the Survivor 50 winner market, where the eventual winner (Aubrey Bracco) saw an unusual amount of money before the taped show even premiered.
This ended up ruining the market and the show—which reveals the winner live after the taped days in Fiji—and denting Polymarket’s integrity. A lawyer for the prediction market said they were looking into it, but like many controversial markets in the space, nothing has been done. Nothing.
This one isn’t good either: “A cluster of wallets with a 98% win rate on Iran-related contracts has triggered law enforcement referrals.” When everyone is rushing to buy into something that hasn’t happened yet, one can’t help but be suspicious. “Report Insider Trading” buttons are cute.
Besides serving up some tasteless and stupid markets, Polymarket also can’t be trusted when it comes to passing judgment on resolutions of disputed markets. Why? The majority of the UMA’s judging of outcomes are usually whales with positions on the markets they’re helping to resolve.
Polymarket US is a CFTC-registered exchange, and after a turbulent start in the USA, is looking to appeal to the masses while competing with Kalshi and fighting lawsuits. In doing so, they’ve had some pretty silly marketing, including paying people on social media to hype simulated bets.
We’ve all seen it. “What would you do if you saw $1 on the floor?” I would pick it up—as I literally did today buying coffee, Coffeemate, and chicken—you stupid parrot. Take your little Polymarket or Kalshi badge and skedaddle off of my Twitter timeline. No more rhetorical questions.
Polymarket has a cutting-edge product. It looks better than other prediction markets on a screen. The company has a chance to be legendary, but must police potential insider trading, especially from Washington, DC insiders, get whales off the dispute boards, and stop the dumb marketing.
Tribal gaming brings in about $3 billion a year in Arizona. It has an even bigger economic impact in the Grand Canyon State ($7.8B), so prediction markets are a threat to Southwest states like Arizona and New Mexico, where tribal gaming has become part of the fabric and revenues.
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Countries Where Polymarket Banned, Restricted
The recently wrapped-up 2026 FIFA World Cup made Kalshi and Polymarket more money than either could have ever anticipated. Still, when looking at the FIFA Men’s Soccer Rankings, we find a very strange reality about the vast majority of nations that performed in the 48-team tournament.
The truth? Prediction market giant Polymarket is either blocked, banned, or partially restricted in almost all of the countries we saw play in, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, last month. In the current top 10, only Mexico (#10) allows the decentralized prediction market.
That means new champions Spain (#1), Argentina (#2), France (#3), England (#4), Brazil (#5), Morocco (#5), Portugal (#7), Belgium (#8), and the Netherlands (#9) have been blocked by the company.
This doesn’t mean residents in these nations don’t trade on Polymarket, but still. Illegal and blocked is done for a reason. And it’s not nine of the top 10 who have it. It’s the other way around.
Taking a deeper dive at #11-#20, we see Croatia (#13), the USA (#16)—where Polymarket is headquartered—Norway (#19), outside the European Union (EU), and Uruguay (#20). So, no Colombia (#11), Germany (#12), Switzerland (#14), Italy (#16), Japan (#17), or Senegal (#18).
That means Polymarket isn’t banned, restricted, or recently blacklisted in just 5 of the top 20 FIFA-ranked nations in Men’s soccer. This is a population and planetary problem for Polymarket.
And these are nations with very big Gross Domestic Products (GDP)—and most also longtime allies of the United States—like Germany ($5T in 2025), Japan ($4.28T), India ($4.13T), the U.K. ($3.96T), France ($3.36T), and Italy ($2.54T), who just blocked Polymarket on July 27, 2026.
Polymarket is also blocked from trading access and its website in Australia, Indonesia, Sweden, Hungary, Romania, most of Ukraine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Burundi.
Perceived or real bad actors Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Iraq, Congo, the Central African Republic, Algeria, Afghanistan, Turkey, Myanmar (Burma), North Korea, and Cuba have all banned Polymarket. Is Mars next?
In countries like Canada, Finland, Ireland, Malaysia, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, and Poland, you can only close out any existing positions on Polymarket, while in Israel, South Korea, and some other countries, you can still trade on the platform but in a legal gray area.
In the US, Polymarket is available in 40 states, but fights in states like Arizona, Nevada, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, and Minnesota—where a federal judge just blocked the state from enforcing a law (Minnesota SF4760) which would have made PMs illegal—flow on like a stream.
Flutter Among Those Reporting Q2 Earnings
We have another busy week of Q2 reporting by companies whose stocks are publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq, with this week’s Earnings Calendar (August 3-7) featuring Merck, Pizza Hut, and Flutter Entertainment all reporting.
On Tuesday, August 4—the day we publish online the first of our two weekly issues—Merck & Co. (MRK), Sunoco (SUN), Caterpillar (CAT), and Sysco (SYY) will all deliver their 2Q earnings before the opening bell, while on Wednesday, August 5, McDonald’s (MCD) and CVS (CVS) will report.
On Thursday, August 6, Fox (FOXA), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)—the owner of FanDuel—Pizza Hut (PZZA), and Hertz (HTZ) will all report pre-market. On Friday, August 7, we’ll get Q2 reports from Under Armor (UAA), Wendy’s (WEN), and MarketAxess (MKTX) before the opening bell.
FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment will deliver its 2026 Q2 Earnings Call on Thursday, August 5 (7 ET/4 PT; 12 pm BST). You can register via the Flutter Investor Relations Hub. If dialing from an institutional analyst or investor role, use the Conference ID 11053. A replay will air an hour after.
Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
The Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California, is the site of this year’s 78th Primetime Emmys, set to air live on Monday, September 14, 2026 (NBC, Peacock, 8 EDT/7 CDT/6 MDT/5 PDT), where the key awards will be revealed live. Mariska Hargitay will host this time around in Hollywood.
In the ‘Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series’ at Polymarket—one of the most even we’ve handicapped—Shailene Woodley (Paradise) is the leader at 48%, followed by Merritt Weaver (The Gilded Age) at 10%, Tai Anderson (The Pitt) at 9%, and Brittany Allen (The Pitt) trading at 8%.
Miriam Shor (Pluribus) at 7% and Tina Ivlev (The Pitt) at 5% are the big underdogs in this category, which was won last year by HBO’s Severance’s Merrit Wever for her role as Gretchen George. Can Wever go back-to-back in a different show? (Monica O'Brien, The Gilded Age).
➤Trading Thoughts: This one is too close to call, despite what the prediction market numbers show, with the aforementioned Wever (“Marriage is a Gamble” episode) and The Pitt’s Tai Anderson (“5:00”) and Brittany Allen (“3:00”) both capable of pulling off the Emmy upset.
🗽Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series Winner Pick: None
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
In the ‘Emmys 2006: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series’ category at Polymarket—another Emmy category where there look like two possibilities—Kate O’Flynn (Widow’s Bay) holds the lead at 58% with Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) following her at 33%.
Given much less of a chance of winning the Emmy, here are Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) at 5%, Dale Dickey (Widow’s Bay) trading at 4%, Michelle Pfeiffer (Margot’s Got Money) at 2%, Jessica Williams (Shrinking) at 2%, and Megan Stalter (Hacks), also with 2% in low volume.
➤Trading Thoughts: Hannah Einbinder won this category last year for her role as Ava Daniels in the HBO Max hit, so can she win it again against favorite Kate O’Flynn (Widow’s Bay), who has a big 25% lead at Polymarket on August 2? There are over 27,000 who vote on Emmy winners.
That’s a good thing for O’Flynn and the comedy horror hit from Apple TV, ‘Widow’s Bay,” in its first season. This body voted for Einbinder a year ago and would be more likely, en masse, to pick a new winner, especially from a popular new show. Einbinder and O’Flynn may battle here again in 2027.
🗽Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series Winner Pick: Kate O’Flynn, Yes 57.8¢
NCAAF: Big 12 Conference Winner
The Big 12 Conference has 16 teams, not quite as mathematically suspicious as the Big Ten with 18 teams, but still about as accurate as the phrase ‘military intelligence.’ We’ve tackled the SEC and the Big Ten. So time for the Big 12, where Texas Tech (50¢) is a heavy favorite at Robinhood.
Following in trading order are BYU (14¢), Utah (10¢), Houston (6¢), Oklahoma State (6¢), Avery Johnson and Kansas State (5¢), Arizona State (4¢), TCU (4¢), Arizona (3¢), Baylor (2¢), West Virginia (2%), UCF (2¢), and HC Deion Sanders and Colorado (2¢), rebuilding as always in Boulder.
The big dogs in the Big 12 at Robinhood are Cincinnati (1¢), Iowa State (1¢), and Kansas (1¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Texas Tech (12-2, 8-1 in Big 12) won the Big 12 last year, going 7-0 at Home and playing some great D (165 PA) while also scoring the most points (552) in the conference. The #4 Red Raiders made it to the CFP Quarterfinals, where they were then ducked by Oregon, 23-0.
Utah (11-2, 7-2 in Big 12) has won 6 straight, while fellow Beehive State footballers #11 BYU (12-2, 8-1 in Big 12) finished strong, as the Cougars always do, and were also perfect at Home (6-0). Houston (10-3, 6-3 in Big 12) went a perfect 6-0 on the Road but just 3-3 at Home.
Texas Tech gets Houston, ASU, Arizona, WV, and, in Lubbock, the game at Oklahoma State (1-11, L11 straight) on November 14 may end up being its most important. Yes, the Cowboys may have done enough in the Transfer Portal to make some noise in 2026. How much, we’ll soon see.
🏈2026 Big 12 Conference Champion Pick: BYU, Bid 12¢, Ask 14¢ (August 2)
➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll examine the potential insider trading in Iran markets, the 2026 TIME Person of the Year market, When Will Apple Release the iPhone 18?, Academy Award Best Picture Winner and Emmy previews, and previews of the NCAAF ACC conference and the PGA Wyndham Championship.”