Over 80 Suspicious Trading Patterns Flagged
The U.S. House Oversight Committee and Chairman James Comer have reportedly asked for internal records from both prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, regarding suspicious trades tied to the ongoing military action in Iran that appear artificially profitable (insider trading).
Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) asked the committee to subpoena the records as Congress looks to help stop insider trading originating in their own political Garden of Evil—Washington, DC.—where essentially all US government activity and decisions are made, now with short secret lives.
Federal investigators are also looking into suspicious oil trades, also with suspicious timing and involving this clusterflotilla of big boats in the Strait of Hormuz all caught in a wet Mexican Standoff and dependent on the whims of a cranky old dictator and a regime backed into a corner.
“The American public has a legitimate interest in knowing whether individuals entrusted with classified national security information have used that access for personal financial gain,” the committee of lawmakers wrote.
“A committee investigation, enforced with subpoenas, will include internal records, which are the only means by which the individuals who conducted these trades can be identified, and the question of whether these platforms are upholding their responsibilities can be answered.”
The panel of lawmakers, including Pappas, House Oversight Committee member Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Sara Jacobs (D-CA), Dina Titus (D-NV), Seth Magaziner (D-RI), Maggie Goodlander (D-NH), and Seth Moulton (D-MA), asked for verification of the users, both domestic and international.
This is as serious as business and law get when it comes to prediction markets, and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan really need to take these letters and the investigation seriously.
This is not like knowing who will be in the Survivor 50 final three, gaming Spotify music markets, or messing with weather gauges at an airport. This is allegedly trading in classified military information about planned strikes against enemy combatants to profit from inside information.
Is this worse than Google employee Michele Spagnuolo making $1.2 million on Polymarket or US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke profiting more than $436,000 from Polymarket on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in April?
In April, Polymarket teamed up with Chainalysis to deploy a tool on the prediction market to detect and flag suspicious trading patterns or potential fraud on the exchange. No integrity, and no one will care about certain markets, certain categories, or even certain prediction markets.
Mamdani Leads 2026 TIME Person of the Year Race
Previewing the Polymarket 2026 TIME Person of the Year market, we find New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (27%) currently leading over Pope Leo XIV (15%), current United States President Donald Trump (14%), and Earth’s first and only trillionaire, Elon Musk (11%).
Following in trading order on August 5 were Artificial Intelligence (9%)—definitely not a person—Sam Altman (9%), James Talarico (9%), new Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar (9%), Benjamin Netanyahu (8%), Victor Glover (8%), and Reid Wiseman (8%).
The first Canadian ever to voyage to the Moon (Orion spacecraft test flight)—Jeremy Hanson—was also trading at 8%, as was Christina Koch, followed by Dario Amodei (7%), Taylor Swift (7%), and ChatGPT (7%)—another non-person. But for now, real people still matter.
Trading at 6% were Jerome Powell, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Shehbazz Sharif, Bad Bunny, and Marco Rubio, with Alysa Liu (4%) now trailing the pack.
Mandani is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and took off in the Big Apple on January 1, 2026. A recent CNN poll showed that one-third of Democrats [D] now identify themselves as democratic socialists.
Last year, TIME named the "Architects of AI” as the magazine’s 2025 Person of the Year, so we may see another non-person win again this year and may have to start wondering if the judges aren’t non-persons themselves. I joke. But between Mandami, Trump, The Pope, and Musk?
This makes you wonder what the list of favorites to win may be a year from now or maybe 10 years from now when the 2036 TIME Person of the Year is the person—or non-person—who shuts off Artificial Intelligence (AI) before it weaves its coded way to the breakfast table and ruins society.
✝️ 2026 TIME Person of the Year Picks: Pope Leo XIV, Yes 17¢, Elon Musk, No 93¢
This is where Elon Musk is housing an AI technology that Jeff Brown believes will help power the next monster IPO on Wall Street.
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And Jeff will also show you how to claim a stake for as little as $50.
Fed Reserve Rate Decision in September and Beyond
The Federal Reserve still hasn’t moved the benchmark interest rate in 2026, voting 9-3 to leave it unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at their latest meeting on Wednesday, July 29, with 3 of the Fed’s 12 board members (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan) voting for a 25bps rate increase.
New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh contended that there was no reason to raise interest rates, as the bond market had effectively solved that problem for the board. But in looking to stabilize prices and bring inflation (CPI 3.5% now) under the Fed’s 2% goal, there is still some work to be done.
The Federal Reserve has three meetings left this year: the next one is in September (September 15-16), followed by October (October 27-28), and then December (December 8-9). You can trade on them and the first four of 2027 (JAN-MAR-JUN-JUL) at Robinhood Predictions.
In the ‘Fed Rate Decision in September 2026’ exchange, the Fed maintains rate (unchanged) at 64¢, with Hike Rates by 25bps following at 44¢. A 25bps Rate Cut at 5¢
A .25bps Rate Hike (5¢) and a 25bps Rate Cut (2¢) were the two least-predicted outcomes for the announcement on September 16, 2026.
Looking at the ‘Fed Rate Decision in October 2026’ market, the Maintain Rates (unchanged) was the favorite decision by the Fed at 69¢, followed by Hike Rates by 25bps (25¢), Cut Rates by 25bps at 9¢, Cut <25bps (2¢), and Hike >25bps (2¢).
In the ‘Fed Rate Decision in December 2026’ market, the Maintain Rates (unchanged) was the favorite decision by the Fed at 61¢, followed by Hike Rates by 25bps (35¢), Cut Rates by 25bps at 5¢, Hike >25bps (3¢), and Cut <25bps (2¢).
There is a chance the Fed could go all year without moving this key lending rate at all. But with three dissenters at the last meeting, after a few unanimous meetings voting unchanged, maybe the 12 somehow decide to hike it by 25bps in one of the next three meetings, but don’t count on it.
📈Federal Reserve Decision in September Pick: Maintain Rates (leave unchanged), 64¢
Will iPhone 18 be Out in 2026? Only the High-End
Tucked in the Product Launches subcategory of Kalshi’s Culture library is the ‘When Will Apple Release the iPhone 18? market, and there are already two ‘No’ resolutions (Before April, Before July) with Before October (‘Yes’) at 17% and Before 2027 (‘Yes’) trading at 21% (No, 80¢).
The word is that Apple is splitting its rollout of the iPhone18 product. An announcement is expected about September 8-9 for the anticipated Fall release of the high-end iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models. Pre-orders start September 11 and they should be in stores on September 18.
Rumors of a foldable iPhone release in the Fall have also surfaced. In the Spring (March-April), Apple is expected to release the Standard iPhone 18 model and the iPhone 18e.
If trading in this market on Kalshi, be sure to read the rules—as those trading obviously have—and remember that the release of the standard model was delayed; that news has been around, so it isn’t expected to be released until 2027. Reading is fundamental. Especially in prediction markets.
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner Early Look
The new movie release The Odyssey has been critically acclaimed, and the film adaptation of the ancient Greek poem by Homer has already brought in more than $750 million globally and let movie theater owners breathe in a welcome sigh of relief last month.
The Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner favorite, with 50% of the chances according to traders, followed by Dune: Part Three (16%), Wild Horse Nine (14%), Digger (9%), and Fjord (8%).
Project Hail Mary (6%), Josephine (3%), The Adventures of Cliff Booth (3%), Avengers: Doomsday (3%), Disclosure Day (2%), Michael (2%), Clarissa (1%), Behemoth! (1%), Saturn Return (1%), Tony (1%), Fatherland (1%), All of a Sudden (1%), The Social Reckoning (1%), and The Drama (1%) all follow.
➤Trading Thoughts: There is still too much time to invest or trade any money in this category. Why? First off, we don’t know exactly which great movies there will be yet, as it’s only early August. The public sees Odyssey as “good,” but is it “great”? Another film has ample time to win.
Secondly, tying your money up on a The Odyssey ‘Yes’ (or ‘No’) contract from August to April means nine months of money stuck on a movie Futures that you can’t even be sure about. For that long-term buy, Bayern Munich to win the 2026-27 German Bundesliga is money better spent.
🎬Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner Longshot Pick: The Social Reckoning, Yes, 1.4¢
How Many Emmy Awards Will The Pitt Win?
The 2026 Emmy Awards are now just five weeks away, and the popular HBO Max drama The Pitt received a total of 25 nominations, the most of any show this year, followed by HBO Max’s hit Hacks (24), Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay (19), Apple TV’s Pluribus (13), and Netflix’s Beef (16).
Analyzing the ‘How Many Emmys Will The Pitt Win?’ market at Polymarket, the 4-5 (48%) range is the category favorite at the 77th Emmys followed by 2-3 (39%), 6-7 (7.5%), 8-9 (3%), 10+ (1%), and 0-1 (1%) on Wednesday, August 5 in decent trading volume ($22,396).
➤Trading Thoughts: The medical drama The Pitt took home 5 Emmy awards a year ago, including Outstanding Drama Series, Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (Noah Wyle), and Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series (Katherine LaNasa). Five looks close again.
Wyle is a sure thing in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (92%) category. In comparison, the second-year show and LaNasa look that way as well (71%), so it will come down to how many Creative, Technical, and Writing Emmys the HBO Max sensation will garner in Lalaland.
🗽How Many Emmys Will The Pitt Win? Pick: 4-5, Yes, 49¢
How Many Emmy Awards Will Widow’s Bay Win?
The new Apple TV horror comedy Widow’s Bay received a total of 19 nominations for the 2026 Emmy Awards. At Kalshi, you can bet on how many statuettes the freshman hit takes home at the Emmy Awards from the Peacock Theater in LA on September 14 (NBC, Peacock, 8 EDT/5 PDT).
Looking at the ‘How Many Emmys Will Widow’s Bay Win?’ category, 2-3 (42%) was the favorite with 4-5 (32%) second, and rightfully so as this Katie Dippold-created show was really enjoyed. Next were 0-1 (12.2%), 6-7 (12%), 10+ (3%), and 8-9 (1%) following on August 5 at Polymarket.
➤Trading Thoughts: This show has five major nominations for Outstanding Comedy Series, Lead Actor in a Comedy Series (Matthew Rhys), Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series (Stephen Root), Guest Actress in a Comedy Series (Betty Gilpin), as well as Directing and Writing categories.
With Rhys (91%) likely a sure winner and Root (48%) leading in his category and the show itself the likeliest to win the Outstanding Comedy Series, Widow’s Bay should win at least 3 Emmys, and between 4 and 7. Finding that sweet spot is what research and prediction markets are all about.
🗽How Many Emmys Will Widow’s Bay Win? Picks: 4-5, Yes 32¢, 2-3, No 59¢
NCAAF: 2026 ACC Conference Winner
After handicapping the Southeastern Conference (SEC), the Big Ten Conference, and the Big Twelve Conference, let’s wrap up our look at the Power Four conference Futures trading with the Atlantic Coast Conference, which suspiciously includes two schools located on the Pacific Coast.
At Robinhood Predictions in the 2026 ACC Conference Champion market, Malachi Toney and Miami-FLA (57¢) are the trader’s favorite, followed by SMU (12¢), Louisville (10¢), Clemson (8¢), Virginia (6¢), California (6¢), North Carolina State (5¢), Pitt (4¢), and Virginia Tech (4¢).
The traders' underdogs to win the ACC are Florida State (3%), the Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech (2¢), Duke (2¢), Boston College (1¢), HC Bill Belichick and North Carolina (1¢), Stanford (1¢), Syracuse (1¢), and Wake Forest (1¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Miami and SMU are the deserved chalks here, and you would think Louisville may surprise if the Cardinals' new QB can shine until you see a schedule with Ole Miss, SMU, NC State, Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Kentucky, meaning the birds will be lucky to be above the .500 mark.
The Hurricanes have an easier schedule than SMU, but both face Notre Dame, a team getting more love than it deserves and who will be tested in October and November. Don’t get caught price-shopping here. Miami is clearly the best ACC team and will be the conference’s best FBS rep.
🏈2026 ACC Conference Champion Pick: Miami-FLA, Yes, Bid 56¢, Ask 58¢ (August 5)
NCAAF Undefeated Regular Season Odds at Kalshi
The last time a DI team went undefeated in NCAAF was last year, when Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza led Indiana to not only an undefeated Regular Season (13-0) but an undefeated season overall (16-0), earning the Hoosiers their first national football championship.
And who did HC Curt Cignetti and IU beat? You guessed it. Miami. Could they both have undefeated Regular Seasons in 2026? And might the two meet again in the FBS later this year? Will I write one more silly question about something we don’t know about? Yes, if that counts.
At Kalshi, traders have gotten down on several teams to go undefeated in the Regular Season—which traditionally ends with the Army-Navy game in early December—and it looks like the heart has overtaken the head for many of these traders we simultaneously mock and envy.
Iconic Independent Notre Dame (36%) is the leading team in the College Football Undefeated Regular Season exchange. The ‘No’ (64¢) seems very smart as the Fighting Irish make October 1 at 4-0, but October (NC-STAN-BYU-NAVY) and November (MIA-BC-SMU-SYR) are a total bear.
Following were Texas Tech (29%), Miami-FLA (20%), defending champions Indiana (18%), Georgia (16%), Oregon (15%), Ohio State (14%), Texas (14%), Oklahoma (13%), Penn State (11%), South Florida (8%), Utah (8%), Alabama (7%), LSU (7%), and Texas A&M (6%).
BYU (5%), Iowa (5%), USC (5%), Virginia (5%), returning QB Trinidad Chambliss, and Ole Miss (4%), Navy (3%), and Tennessee (2%) were all the longshots on Wednesday, August 5 at Kalshi.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Hoosiers could go unbeaten again (and win the national championship again), with the games vs. Ohio State (October 17) and at Washington (November 21) the toughest tests. Miami could also roll the RS table, with the November 7 game at ND the big test for The U.
🏈2026 Undefeated Regular Season Picks: Indiana, Yes 15¢, Miami, Yes, 20¢, Notre Dame, No 64¢
PGA Regular Season Ends at Wyndham Championship
The last event of the PGA regular season, the 2026 Wyndham Championship, teed off at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC on Thursday, August 6 and will run through Round 4 on Sunday, weather permitting (TV—ESPN, CBS, Paramount+, Golf Channel; Radio—SiriusXM).
The FedEx St Jude Championship marks the start of the FedEx Up Playoffs next week, played at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee from Thursday, August 13 through Sunday, August 16 (TV—ESPN, CBS, Paramount+, Golf Channel, PGA TOUR LIVE Betcast; Radio—SiriusXM).
After the paring down of 70 to 50 for the BMW Championship, there is one final cut from 50 to 30 golfers for the final tournament of the season, the Tour Championship from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia on August 27-30, where a season champ will be crowned via standard stroke play.
At Kalshi, traders were behind last year’s Wyndham Championship winner Cameron Young (9.7%), followed by Jackson Koivun (5.1%), Hideki Matsuyama (4.4%), Ryan Gerard (3.2%), Ben Griffin (3%), Justin Thomas (2%), Aaron Rai (2.8%), and Tom Kim (2.7%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Young finished T8 at the Rocket Classic last weekend after finishing in 2nd place in The Open, and along with American Xander Schauffele (2nd Rocket Classic, T16 The Open), American Young has been one of the most consistent linksmen on the tour this Summer.
Koivon shocked the world by winning The Open, and few will give him a chance of playing so well again in what is the first round of the PGA Playoffs. The NCAA Basketball tournament goes 68-64-32-16-8-4-2 to determine a champion in March-April, while the PGA goes 70-50-30-1 in August to crown its king.
⛳Wyndham Championship Winner ‘Yes’ Picks: Cameron Young, 9.7¢, Jackson Koivun, 5.3¢
Tribe at Sox in an AL Central Showdown Saturday
Corbin Carroll and the Indians (57-57, 29-28 Road) meet Munetaka Murakami and the White Sox (59-53, 34-21 Home) from Rate Field (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Chicago on Saturday night (FOX, MLB.tv, Fubo, 7:15 EDT/6:15 CDT/4:15 PDT). The Total pattern has been OUUOUU (Unders 4-3).
The schedule starters for this Game 2 of a 3-game series from the Windy City see Guardians RHP Gavin Williams (10-6, 3.71 ERA) duel with White Sox LHP Anthony Kay (7-5, 4.25 ERA). FOX will also air the Tigers vs. Giants game from San Francisco in the same time slot for select viewers.
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the season series between these two AL Central division rivals, we see Chicago with a 4-3 lead leading into Friday’s (August 7) Game 1 at The Cell on the South Side, where you best beware of a man named LeRoy Brown.
Last year, Cleveland went 3-4 vs. the White Sox. Still, the Pale Hose are improved and a pleasant surprise this season with talented dudes like Murakami (.244/24/51), Colson Montgomery (.215/25/63), Miguel Vargas (.238/23/64), and Andrew Benitendi (.246/12/57).
⚾MLB Saturday Night MLB Pick: Guardians-White Sox Over
Sounders Host Querétaro in Leagues Cup Sunday
The 2026 Leagues Cup tournament starts this week. On Sunday afternoon, the defending tournament champion Seattle Sounders FC will host Querétaro at Lumen Field (FieldTurf CORE) in Seattle, Washington (Apple TV, 3:30 EDT/2:30 CDT/12:30 PDT).
The Sounders have struggled of late, going 0-6-0 in their last 6 (3 GF-14 GA), being blanked 3 times in 2026 MLS RS play. Querétaro is 3-1-1 (8 GF-5 GA) in its last 5, all in La Liga BBVA MX, Torneo Clausura action.
➤Trading Thoughts: The last three Leagues Cup champions have come from the MLS (Seattle FC, Columbus Crew, Inter Miami CF), and after the MLS All-Stars rolled over the Liga MX All-Stars last week, we can probably expect another professional team from the United States to win the trophy.
But Seattle (7-4-6 in MLS) has hit the Summer skids and can’t buy a goal. The Lumen Field site should help, but it’s hard to think Paul Rothrock (5 goals, MLS), Cristian Roldan (3 goals), Albert Rusnák (3 goals), and the homeboys will be that confident for this one in the Emerald City.
⚽Sunday Leagues Cup Totals (Goals) Pick: Under 2.5
➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the tee off of the FedEx Cup Playoffs in Memphis, what you really pay in PMs, the weekly Earnings Calendar, another Emmy Awards category along with previews of the NCAAF Sun Belt and C-USA conferences, the NWSL winner, and the 2026 UEFA Super Cup.”