Knockout Stage Starts Sunday

In previous incarnations of the FIFA World Cup, at the end of the Group Stage and the start of the Knockout Stage, we would write things like “this is where we separate the wheat from the chaff” or other tired, old clichés that people who read books growing up, not phones, would understand.​

But the Past has been rolled over as it always has been, and now we find a bloated Present with World Cup kicking off with 48 teams (instead of 32) and from three sites (instead of one) and with 104 matches to be played to determine which nation reigns supreme in Soccer (or Football).​

So what do two of the greatest sporting events, the FIFA World Cup and the NCAA Men’s DI Basketball Tournament (March Madness), now have in common? Bloating from greed. The NCAA Tournament announced earlier this Spring that it would be expanding from 68 to 76 teams.​​

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage will also be bigger, with 32 teams making the cut, which could make most of the Round of 32 games (June 28-July 2) a bit anticlimactic. Third-place teams facing Group winners in a bloated tournament may mean more boredom.​

But this also means we may find some healthy mismatches in the round before the Round of 16 reveals who the real survivors are in this quadrennial tournament, watched by billions, either alone or in groups, on small TVs or monster HDTVs, revealing the true magnificence of the beautiful game.​

In a week, starting on July 4, we will see the real fun begin in Philadelphia and Houston, with July 5 seeing R16 matches from East Rutherford and México City, Arlington (Dallas) and Seattle hosting games on July 6, with Atlanta and Vancouver the sites of the final two WC R16 fixtures on July 7.​

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup transitions from the Group Stage to the Knockout Stage in North America, the volume in the two most popular prediction markets—Polymarket and Kalshi—is impressive, with the former surpassing the $3 billion mark in the Group Stage, with much soccer left.​

This means that we can expect to see the World Cup Winner at Polymarket set a new record, and with so many teams and matches in this new XXL World Cup, we can expect a final volume number maybe twice (or thrice?) as high as we saw in the 2024 Presidential Election and Super Bowl LIV.​

​At Polymarket in the US Presidential Election Winner 2024 market, there was $3,686,335,059 volume as the old [R] Donald Trump defeated [D] Kamala Harris, who replaced an even older [D] incumbent Joe Biden, who realized way too late he was way too old for the office, let alone hold it.​

That market still holds the record, for now. For some context, at Polymarket in the NFL Championship Game—Super Bowl LIV (Big Game Champion)—we saw a healthy $704,096,823, with a strike on the Iran market in the US-Iran conflict, and $529 million in trading volume.​​

Heading into Thursday, June 25, the World Cup Winner market had $3,099,679,082, meaning it’s only a matter of time for this 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner market to pass the $3,686,335,059 volume recorded at Polymarket in trading on the 2024 US Presidential Election.​

Click here to trade on the 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner at Polymarket

The first week-plus of the World Cup has provided a number of memories, including Raúl Jiménez scoring his first WC goal for El Tri in the tournament opener, Kylian Mbappé (FRA) and Erling Haaland (NOR) scoring braces, Lionel Messi (ARG) scoring a hat trick, and Scottish fans drinking Boston dry.

As far as trading (and betting) on Sides in the 3-way (Draw) result, the number of Ties in the first 22 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America was mind-boggling and profitable for anyone or intentionally blindly backing tie scores at the end of these Group Stage openers.

The Underdogs to Score prop was also an ATM machine of sorts, going 21-5 through those first 26 matches with the Both Teams To Score Prop (‘Yes’) also very profitable at 19-7 after Bosnia and Herzegovina scored late in its 4-1 loss to Switzerland on Thursday, June 18.

After those first 27 matches, there were 10 Draws with anyone betting a tie in those matches up a healthy 27 units. On Monday, June 15, all four Group G and H games ended in Draws: Spain-Cabo Verde (0-0), Belgium-Egypt (1-1), Saudi Arabia-Uruguay (1-1), and Iran-New Zealand (2-2).​

Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman filed three lawsuits against so-called “illegal gambling companies” in the commonwealth on June 18, alleging the trio was involved in the operation of unlicensed sports betting and gambling platforms in the Bluegrass State.​

The three are Kalshi (including Coinbase and other affiliates), Polymarket (and its affiliates), and online casino VGW. Kentucky joins other US states like Arizona, Illinois, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, and Utah in fighting prediction markets—especially sports markets—within their states.​

In a statement, Coleman said, “Kalshi and Polymarket are operating illegal sportsbooks in Kentucky and breaking our laws. These multi-billion-dollar corporations and their legal fictions don’t pass the sniff test. As one of our state legislators said it best, ‘If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...”​

With the increasing number of states deeming prediction markets bad (while still letting sportsbooks operate legally) and some states loading lobbyists’ pockets with cash in a perceived Online Sportsbooks vs Prediction Markets shootout, this only makes the wrong people money.​

The lawyers.​

And as everyone has said for quite some time, this issue will likely be decided in the US Supreme Court ultimately, and with the current makeup of the justices, it’s hard not to see them siding with prediction markets, like the man who put many of them in those powerful chairs, President Trump.

Rumors of a Polymarket TGE (Token Generation Event) have been circulating for months, and while many speculated the prediction market giant would distribute its native digital tokens ($POLY) before the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which kicked off a week ago in Mexico.​

The quadrennial Soccer tournament has started, but there has been no TGE, so those anticipating an early release in a relatively new marketplace that is slow to do almost everything—witness Polymarket’s US rollout—will just have to wait, possibly until after Summer, which has just begun.​

At Myriad Markets, traders can get down on the ‘When Will $POLY TGE?’ market with Before July trading at 4%, Before August now at just 11%, with Before September trading at 20% (Yes 25¢, No 85¢).​

But this is hardly a liquid market. The application from Polymarket—who filed for a $POLY trademark—is still under review, but it’s probably only a matter of time before the okay for one of the most anticipated TGE launches in Crypto.​​

On May 13, Dustin Karp of Polymarket hinted that Mustafa Aljadery (@mustafap0ly) was working on an airdrop page for the upcoming $POLY TGE, and thoughts that it would drop in late June swirled. It’s June 26 today, and as you can see from the prices at Myriad, few think it will be out.​

July and even August seem pessimistic, but after the World Cup ends (July 19) and before the 2026 Regular Season NFL kicks off on Wednesday, September 9, Polymarket would have a nice 52-day window at the end of the Summer and the start of the Fall to have the spotlight.​

And it always helps to go straight to the source for information, and Polymarket makes it pretty damn clear that it doesn’t, for now: “Polymarket has not announced plans for any airdrop or token generation event. Be wary of scams claiming airdrops, giveaways, etc.”​

Click here to trade on Will $POLY TGE Before____? at Myriad Markets

Kalshi’s ‘World Soccer Cup Final Qualifiers’ lets traders choose teams they feel will make it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final on Sunday, July 19, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, with an Argentina-France rematch of the 2022 World Cup Final being given a strong chance.​

Traders give France (33%), Argentina (31%), Spain (26%), England (21%), Portugal (15%), Brazil (14%), Germany (13%), Uruguay (13%), Netherlands (12%), Mexico (10%), Norway (8%), USA (8%), Switzerland (7%), Morocco (6%), Japan (5%), and Colombia (4%) best chances to make the Final.

As usual, UEFA and CONMEBOL nations dominate the trading, but until a team from a continent other than Europe or South America can hoist the 18-karat gold FIFA World Cup Trophy, it’s hard to imagine traders and bettors backing teams financially from North America, Asia, or Africa.

➤Trading Thoughts: The odds scream taking teams from the CONCACAF (North America, Central America, Caribbean), CAF (Africa), AFC (Asia and Australia), or OFC (Oceania) is burning money, so avoid number shopping or emotional sentiment when it comes to the USA or Japan.​

France has been my buy with its loaded roster, and Les Bleus looked great in their first two kicks while magician Lionel Messi and #1-ranked Argentina seem just as strong as they were four years ago, making a rematch of the 2022 tournament—depending on the draw—a distinct possibility.

⚽World Cup Final Qualifiers Pick: France, 34¢, Argentina, 30¢

Click here to trade on World Cup Final qualifiers at Kalshi

Looking at the American League (AL) standings on June 15, one found just two teams from the Junior Circuit—the Yankees and the Mariners—with positive Run Differentials (RD), with the other 13 all in the red, although the Tampa Bay Rays managed to get to +5 (315 RF-310 RA) on June 17.​

In the AL East Division, MLB traders at Robinhood Predictions were buying Aaron Judge and New York Yankees ‘Yes’ contracts (76¢) with the Tampa Bay Rays (17¢), Baltimore Orioles (4¢), defending AL champion Toronto Blue Jays (3¢), and the Boston Red Sox (1¢), all getting little love.​

At Robinhood in the AL Central, Munetaka Murakami and the upstart Chicago White Sox (36¢) were battling the Cleveland Guardians (40¢) and Detroit Tigers (15¢) in the division, with traders less interested in the Minnesota Twins (9¢) and Bobby Witt Jr and the Kansas City Royals (4¢).​

In the AL West at Robinhood Predictions, where the execs wear tights, the Seattle Mariners (64¢) led the Houston Astros (15¢), Texas Rangers (14¢), the Athletics (9¢), and Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels (1¢) in a still wide-open MLB division and very nice trading market.​​

➤Trading Thoughts: The South Siders have been one of the more pleasant surprises this 2026 MLB Regular Season, with Chicago at least above that aforementioned .500 mark (41-38) but still showing a minus in the Run Differential column (-3) despite leading the division by 0.5. Mercy!

​No one has a more exciting young squad than the A’s, who will call Las Vegas home one day. With Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof (30-game hitting streak), Shea Langoliers, and Brent Rooker, this is a team to watch and get in on now if you believe in this young and maturing bunch.

​We will take a look at the National League divisions in our next online issue.​

⚾AL Central Winner Pick: Chicago White Sox, Yes, 36¢

⚾AL West Winner Pick: Athletics, Yes, 9¢​

The ‘World Cup: Golden Glove Winner’ market at Polymarket is a close race with a number of Goalkeepers vying for the prestigious award, and the first run of matches isn’t even completed at this writing. Argentina’s Emiliano Martínez (19%), Spain’s Unai Simón (16%) lead for now.​

Following were Brazil’s Alisson Becker (14%), France’s Mike Maignan (11%), England’s Jordan Pickford (8%), Spain’s Joan Garcia (8%), Netherlands’ Bart Verbruggen (7%), Germany’s Manuel Neuer (6%), Portugal’s Diogo Costa (6%), and Spain’s other GK, David Raya (5%).​

The longer shots are Morocco’s Yassine Bounou (4%), Belgium’s Thibaut Courtois (4%) and Senne Lammens (2%), Brazil’s Ederson (3%), Germany’s Oliver Baumann (2%), México’s ageless Guillermo Ochoa (4%), Norway’s Ørjan Nyland (1%), and the USMNT’s Matt Freese (1%),​

​➤Trading Thoughts: Emiliano Martínez won the GG at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar as Argentina won the Final over France. The 33-year-old played every minute of the WC for La Albiceleste, registered 3 CS, and saved a spot-kick by Les Bleus Kinglsey Coman to seal Argentina’s win.​

Against Algeria in Argentina’s Group Stage opener that saw Lionel Messi get a hat trick in a 3-0 win, Martínez (6-foot-5) did get the Clean Sheet (CS), but Aston Villa’s big man in the goal only saw 1 SOG from the not mighty Fennecs, 1 more than my cat Raphie saw sleeping through the match.​

As far as underdogs, you will want a GK on a team that can make it to the last four (or eight at worst), and that may mean taking a chance on a big longshot this tourney like Morocco with GK Yassine Bounou (Al-Hilal) or Netherlands and Bart Verbruggen (Brighton & Hove Albion).​

⚽ Golden Glove Winner Favorites Pick: Emiliano Martínez, Argentina, Yes 20¢

⚽ Golden Glove Winner Underdog Pick: Yassine Bounou, Yes 6.4¢​

Click here to trade on the 2026 FIFA Golden Glove Winner market at Polymarket

The Group Stage of the World Cup concludes on Saturday with six games, including Croatia vs Ghana and England vs Panama (5 ET/2 PT); Portugal vs Colombia and DR Congo vs Uzbekistan (7:30 ET/4:30 PT), followed by Austria vs Algeria and Jordan vs Argentina (10 ET/7 PT).

This is another matchday where some of the best players on Earth are in action with Harry Kane (ENG), Jude Bellingham (ENG), Luka Modrić (CRO), Cristiano Ronaldo (POR), Vitinha (POR), Luis Díaz (COL), Emiliano Martínez (ARG), and little magician Lionel Messi (ARG, 16 career WC goals).​

Wayne Pickford and England (+669), Argentina (+809), Vitinha and Portugal (+1011), and longshots, the Coffee Growers of Colombia (+4900), are all being given a decent chance by traders of winning the World Cup 2026 at DraftKings Predictions with Croatia at +9900 (99/1).​​

➤Trading Thoughts: The prices are heavy on the Checkered Ones, the Three Lions, and La Albiceleste, and the Portugal-Colombia match is too important for both, and it seems picking a Side is difficult, and maybe backing the total Over 2.5 is the logical approach with a quick pace expected.​

England sat #4 in the FIFA rankings, Croatia was down to #14 with Messi, Julián Alvarez, Lautaro Martínez, CFC MFs Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo, and defending WC winners Argentina ranked #1, and rightfully so with its last loss coming back on November 21, 2023 (Uruguay, WCQ).​

⚽Saturday World Cup 3-Side Parlay Pick: Croatia—England—Argentina​

Click here to trade on the England vs Panama World Cup match at Kalshi

The magnificent 5-race winning streak of rookie Kimi Antonelli was finally snapped when F1 legend and now Kim Kardashian squeeze Lewis Hamilton won the 2026 Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix in Barcelona, Spain, earlier this month for his 106th career F1 checkered flag.​

The trading numbers for Antonelli—who won the first five races of his F1 career for his Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS Team, which includes teammate George Russell—became ugly, with Antonelli priced almost at Even odds pre-race, much like Max Verstappen was years ago.​​

On Sunday morning at the Lenovo Austrian Grand Prix at the FIA-Grade Red Bull Ring in Spielberg, Austria (9 am ET/8 CT/6 PT, Apple TV), Hamilton will look to rev up his Scuderia Ferrari Team’s season and give Antonelli and the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS Team a run for their money.

At the Polymarket exchange, Kimi Antonelli (34%), Lewis Hamilton (21%), George Russell (20%), Charles Leclerc (12%), Max Verstappen (10%), Lando Norris (7%), Oscar Piastri (3%), and Sergio Pérez (<1%) make up the 2026 Lenovo Austrian Grand Prix: Driver Winner listings. Vroom...​​

➤Trading Thoughts: Everything Old is New again, and history always repeats itself, so can Brit Hamilton really make a run at the rookie Antonelli? The narrative would be wonderful for F1, but guys like George Russell and last year's race winner here, Lando Norris, will have their say.​

Norris was also the champ last year, so let’s not forget about him or living legend Max Verstappen, although the latter seems uninterested these last few seasons, and who can blame him? Winning and putting the pressure on yourself to win consistently is tiring.​

🏁➤F1 Lenovo Austrian Grand Prix Trading Picks: Lewis Hamilton, Yes, 21¢, Kimi Antonelli, No, 68¢​

Click here to trade on the 2026 F1 Lenovo Austrian Grand Prix: Driver Winner at Polymarket

One day after the Group Stage ends, the now 48 World Cup teams are pared down to 32 with the Round of 32—aka the Knockout Stage—starting on Sunday, June 28. No longer can teams play and lose; any ties will have to be settled in either Extra Time or a Penalty Kick Shootout. The horror.​

There is only one World Cup match on Sunday, and it’s a pretty good one with an awful lot at stake as the 2nd-place team in Group A, South Africa, collides with the 2nd-place team in Group B, Canada, with the survivor becoming the first team to make the Round of 16.​

Cyle Larin and Canada will have the home-continent advantage, with the former MLS star and #1 pick in the 2015 MLS SuperDraft familiar with SoFi Stadium (Matrix Turf) in Inglewood, California (FOX, 3 ET/2 CT/12 PT). Games will now go to a 30-minute ET or PK Shootouts to break any ties.

➤Trading Thoughts: South Africa had a strange Group Stage (1-1-1), earning 4 points to somehow steal second place as Bafana Bafana played increasingly better from game to game, beating South Korea on Wednesday (1-0) to earn this Knockout Stage match with Canada in Los Angeles.

Canada ended up in second place as well after losing to Switzerland on Wednesday (2-1), finishing the GS 1-1-1 with 4 points, the same total as Bosnia and Herzegovina (1-1-1, -1 GD). But Les Rouges (The Reds) ended with a +5 Goal Differential, thanks in great part to a 6-0 romp of Qatar.

The South Africa vs Canada “To Advance” market at Kalshi had just opened at this writing and wasn’t liquid enough to report or make a pick on the real numbers on Match 73 of the World Cup. The home-field advantage, the North American continent, and a pro-Canadian crowd may be the difference.

⚽Sunday World Cup Match Pick: Canada to advance​

Click here to trade on the South Africa vs Canada World Cup match at Kalshi

Things kick into high gear on Monday with three more KO Stage (Round of 32) matches, as three more nations will advance to the Round of 16 and take one step closer to winning the FIFA World Cup, something only European (12 times) and South American (10 times) teams have experienced.​

The first Knockout Stage match of the day will see Group C winner, Brazil, facing the dangerous 2nd place team in Group F, Japan or the Netherlands, in an early kickoff from NRG Stadium (Hellas Matrix Helix) in Houston, Texas (FOX, 1 EDT/12 CDT/11 MDT/10 PDT).​

In the day’s second match, Group E winner, Germany, is facing the lucky 3rd place team from either Group A-B-C-D-E-F in a fixture from Boston Stadium (Gillette Stadium, FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, 1 ET/12 CT/10 PT).​​

The third KO Stage match on Monday has Group F winner Japan or the Netherlands, facing the 2nd place team in Group C, Morocco, in a night game from scenic Estadio BBVA (Hellas Matrix Helix) in Guadalajara, México (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, 9 EDT/7 CDT/6 PDT).​

➤Trading Thoughts: The Atlas Lions of Morocco are ranked #9 by FIFA, and Achraf Hakimi and the Kings of the African Soccer Jungle are not to be taken lightly, but both the Samurai Blue and Oranje are really good, and someone good will go home after this one. No numbers yet, no picks.​

 ➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the Wimbledon Championships, the upcoming Anthropic IPO, Who Will be Taylor Swift’s Bridesmaids?, MLB NL Divisional updates, and World Cup Knockout Stage previews for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.