Kalshi has Ohio State 70% to beat USC

Like pizza is the reason most people frequent pizzerias, the Sports category is usually the reason most users log in to prediction markets. It’s not hard to predict this, with online sportsbooks popular and so many sports and games being played every minute.​

A survey from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan Q3 2026 Consumer Insights found that 70% of users asked about prediction markets said they traded on a sports event over the last year. With just 10% of the survey’s respondents saying they used a ‘Yes-No’ exchange, this reinforces Sports.​

S&P said, “...for example, 70% said they had traded on sports-related outcomes, compared to 36% trading on economic or financial outcomes and 33% on political outcomes.” Entertainment and News was traded on by 26%, with 11% betting on categories like Weather, Crypto, and Mentions.​

Data from the survey also revealed that most traders buying contracts on non-sports outcomes on prediction markets were also trading sports. S&P said 68% of those trading on political outcomes also bet on sports results at these white-hot exchanges.​

The survey also confirmed what we already knew: PM users are usually men aged 35 or younger. It also said 23% of adults on the Internet made sports bets or trades on either online sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel) or PMs (Kalshi, Polymarket) over the past 365 days.​

A detailed study co-authored by researchers at Yale and the London Business School found that only a small group of informed users at Polymarket drives prices, volume, and momentum, and generally takes home the biggest chunks of profit.​

The researchers analyzed 210,322 markets over two years, covering about 1.72 million accounts. Yale School of Management (SOM)’s Theis Jensen, London Business School’s Yunhan Guo, Roberto Cram, and Howard Kung co-authored the 78-page paper, which was published on April 20, 2026.​

If you think the demographics are similar to online sportsbooks, you would be spot on, with most traders being men involved with sports contracts and about the same numbers of users winning (hardly any) as losing (almost all).​

The numbers showed that roughly 3% of the accounts in the Polymarket study reaped 27% of all dollar profits on the popular PM company, which includes Polymarket (International)—restricted and geoblocked for use in the United States—and younger brother, Polymarket US.​

​Economist Jensen said the number of those making profits may fall from 3% to 1% as competition from Wall Street, bots, and the need for sharper traders evolves. So this perceived wisdom of the masses is more like the perceived wisdom of the chosen few who drive the markets.​

This is also similar to sports betting, where Billy Walters had his reign decades ago, and now larger betting groups move the lines and compete with each other in a landscape of similar numbers and a decreasing number of major sportsbooks (outs). This is not a good thing for the little guy.​

If the Supreme Court rules against the sports contracts element in prediction markets and these operators must pay taxes, licensing fees, league fees, and all the other costs that come with regulated sports betting, then traders' edges will be nickel-and-dimed.

The simple truth is that most people visiting prediction markets are either just browsing, using the platforms as a source of information to stay on top of the rapid pulse of current events, or following where perceived “smart money” is, just like they do when browsing sports websites.

With the lucrative football season now well underway, industry leader Kalshi announced it is now offering traders the chance to buy player market protection for select NFL player props markets, either as one-element trades or riskier Combos (parlays) served up by the company.​

The line between the evolving modern-day prediction market and online sportsbooks continues to blur even further with stuff like this, and it's hard not to think the Supreme Court will have to tell the PMs that part of what they do is the same as sports gambling and that it’s time to pay the piper.​

Traditional sportsbooks offer this protection as the popularity of wagering on player props and sports gambling itself continues to rise. And no one wants to see a simple straight bet or parlay trashed because one player was injured during the game the prop bet is on.​

Keep the customer happy. And betting parlays are the least profitable type of bet a gambler-trader could make. This is the nature of the beast. Parlays are fun—the image of huge parlay hits litter the Twitter landscape. But the simple truth is these are not smart bets.​

Kalshi defines these markets as “versions of select NFL player markets that include an early exit payout.” For example, if Christian McCaffrey played the first half for the 49ers but didn’t return in the second half and the trader bought this insurance, that market settles at the pre-kickoff price.​

If McCaffrey had already reached his target in a theoretical Rushing Yards category and didn’t play in the second half, it would pay out. If McCaffrey didn’t play at all, this NFL protection from Kalshi would ensure the trader isn’t punished for something they could never have known.​

Whether the company extends this protection to NCAAF games and any player props remains to be seen, as player props are more popular in the monster that is the NFL. Here is how Kalshi breaks this new insurance down:​

“Whether a pick is protected depends on the market your order was placed in. In the Kalshi mobile app, protected picks show a shield icon on your combo in the Combo builder, in your portfolio, and on your order confirmation.

The protection details sheet lists picks that are protected or can be protected, so it doesn't confirm that protection is on. Protection can't be added to a position after you trade. Protected and standard markets are separate markets, so turning protection on for a new combo doesn't change combos already placed.”

This week the Earnings Calendar is thick as a brick, with scores of companies in the United States reporting Q2 earnings from Monday, October 26 through Friday, October 30, including United Parcel Service (Tuesday) and Microsoft (Wednesday). Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face.

On Monday, October 26, Verizon (VZ) asks “Can you hear me now?” before the opening bell, with Electronic Arts (EA) and Confluent (CFLT)—which trades on the NASDAQ Global Select Market—reporting after the closing bell.

On Tuesday, October 27, we will see nine companies reporting Q2 earnings, including the aforementioned “What can Brown do for you?” United Parcel Service (UPS), Hilton (HLT), SoFi (SOFI), Boeing (BA), and JetBlue (JBLU) will fly some numbers our way.

On Wednesday, October 28, USA Today (TDAY) and Wingstop (WING) will report before the opening bell, while Roku (ROKU) and Microsoft (MSFT) will report after the closing bell. Thursday brings Q2 data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Caterpillar (CAT).

And on spooky Friday, October 30, Chevron (CVX), Cboe (CBOE), and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) will all report earnings before the opening bell.

Click here for the Weekly Earnings Predictions Calendar at Polymarket

The #2-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten) head west to face QB Jayden Maiava and the #25 USC Trojans (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Grass) in Los Angeles, California, in NCAAF Week 9 on Saturday night (NBC, 7:30 EDT/6:30 CDT/5:30 PDT).

The Buckeyes have the leading Heisman Trophy candidate in WR Jeremiah Smith (52 receptions, 984 yards, 12 TDs). Still, he will have to play the rest of the season without injured starting QB Julian Sayin, meaning the chemistry that Smith and backup QB Luke Fahey develop will matter.

USC (36.4 PPG, #27) has proven it can pass (310.1 YPG) and rush (152.3, T-#76) the pigskin with WR Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and RB King Miller, but it’s been the Trojans' defense (25.1 PPG, #80) that has been the problem, meaning Maiava and USC are forced to try to outscore opponents.

At Kalshi, visitors Ohio State (70%) are the traders’ clear favorite over host Southern Cal (30%) in the Ohio State vs. USC winner exchange, with the Big Ten Conference game’s Point Spread seeing Ohio State -7 and the Total at 50.5 -115 at DraftKings (Moneyline: OSU -245, USC +200).

🌎Trading Thoughts: With Smith and a collection of other talented receivers, Ohio State ranks #7 in D1 in Passing (323.1, #7), and after exorcising some demons by beating Indiana in Bloomington, the Buckeyes have the confidence needed to make a run at the 2027 CFP National Championship.

But for true freshman Fahey, or maybe sophomore Tavien St Clair, to assimilate into the Buckeyes' offense in October-November will be essential for Head Coach Ryan Day. OSU will be rested here after having Week 8 off. This should be a battle between the Buckeyes' defense and USC’s offense.

In the last 3 meetings between these two, USC is 2-1 SU, but OSU is 2-1-0 ATS, covering the point spread in the last two meetings (2009, 2017), both when the Trojans still called the Pac-12 Conference home. The under is a profitable 3-0-0 (38, 33, 31 points scored).

USC has been poor ATS (2-8-0 L10) and has lost its last 3 straight ATS at Home (ULL, ORE, WASH). OSU is 6-4-0 ATS in its last 10 and heads in on a 5-game winning streak, with its last three losses all to NCAAF heavyweights (Indiana, Miami, Texas). The Buckeyes' defense should be the difference.

🏈NCAAF Week 8 Saturday Night Pick: Ohio State -7 -105

The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase winds down with the second-to-last race of the season, the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway (Asphalt, Concrete) in Ridgeway, Virginia on Sunday, November 1 (TV—NBC, HBO Max, RADIO—SiriusXM, MRN, 5 EST/4 CST/3 MST/2 PST).

In the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, Alabama, on Sunday, October 25, it was Kyle Larson who won the checkered flag for the first time at Talladega as Chevrolets finished hard after Fords had dominated the day, holding all 10 of the top 10 spots at one point.

In the NASCAR Cup Series Champion trading market at Kalshi, Kyle Larson (30%) was back on top, followed by Christopher Bell (21%), Denny Hamlin (16%), Chase Briscoe (15%), Ryan Blaney (10%), Joey Logano (5%), and Tyler Reddick (3%) in trading order on October 20.

🌎Trading Thoughts: Chase Briscoe has been hot, winning 2 of the last 4 races (Las Vegas, Charlotte), and has to be considered here in this 500-lap, 263-mile race from Martinsville. Reddick (Phoenix) and Larson (Kansas, Talladega) have both won Chase races so far this autumn.

Larson, Hamlin, Blaney and Logano should also be in contention here, and picking a winner is a crapshoot with the NASCAR Cup season down to its last race next weekend. Last year, in the 2025 Xfinity 500, Byron (Chevrolet) won after Blaney won the previous two years (2023, 2024).

Stock car legend Richard Petty is one of four drivers with the most checkered flags in the race (6), which began in 1949, when cars were made of wood. Chevrolet has won 3 of the last 6 years here, while Hendrick Motorsports has won the race a mind-boggling 19 times.

🏁2026 NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 Winner Pick: Kyle Larson

NFL Week 8 features a great AFC showdown between Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (3-2, 3-1 on the road) meeting Josh Allen and the Bills (5-1, 2-1 at Home) at the new Highmark Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Orchard Park, NY (CBS, 1 ET/12 CT/10 PT). Did you set your clock back?​

While most of the NFL plays in crappy conferences, the Ravens (AFC North) and Bills (AFC East) play in competitive ones, at least at the top. The Bills' lone loss came to the Patriots in Week 4, while Baltimore deals with Jackson’s ankle injury and surprisingly lost to the Saints and Browns.​

At online sportsbook FanDuel, the Bills are 3-point favorites with the Total at 53.5 (BUF -180, BAL +150). At Polymarket US, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills. The Bills (65%) were also the favorite over the Ravens (37%), but in extremely early trading a week out from the game.

🌎Trading Thoughts: James Cook III and the Bills are 5-5 SU in the last 10 meetings in this series with Buffalo 5-4-1 ATS, winning the last 2 against the point spreads, winning outright both times as 1.5-point Home underdogs in games that went Over with 52 (51.5) and 81 points (51.5) scored.​

Despite those 2 Overs, the Under is 6-4-0 in the last 10, with the previous 3 played in Buffalo all going Under. With a healthy Allen and an always-hobbled Jackson, Buffalo is the better team in this series the last three seasons, and you don’t need modeling, power ratings, or AI to see this.

The Bills are 3-1-0 ATS in their last 4 in Nickel City, and this is a franchise now intent on winning the Homefield Advantage for the AFC Playoffs—something made harder with the resurgence of the Chiefs and their rival Pats already showing the Bills they ain’t scared of no fricking buffaloes.

🏈NFL Week 8 Sunday Side Pick: Buffalo Bills -3 (FanDuel)

 ➠ In the next volume of The Prediction Report, we’ll update the race to make the 12-team 2027 CFP, look at how Elon Musk wants to give every child in America a share of SpaceX stock, and preview #24 Northwestern-#25 Oregon in NCAAF, the WBC Super Middleweight Championship Saturday, the Mexico City Grand Prix, and Vikings and Chiefs NFL games on Sunday.