The 2026-27 English Premier League season gets underway this weekend with all 20 clubs in action, with one fixture being played in England’s top flight of soccer on Friday, August 19, five contested on Saturday, August 20, three on Sunday, August 21, and one on Monday, August 22.

Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, and Arsenal are the defending EPL champions, after the Gunners (26-7-5) held off second-place Manchester City (23-9-6) to win in a season where they sat on top of the table most of the year.

Manchester United (20-11-7), Aston Villa (19-8-11), and Liverpool (17-9-12)—who saw star forward Mohammed Salah depart in the offseason—finished in third-, fourth-, and fifth-place respectively, and all qualified for the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League tournament.

Tottenham Hotspur (10-11-17) did enough to finish in 17th place and avoid relegation (by 2 points) with 18th-place West Ham United, 19th-place Burnley, and 20th-place Wolves all being relegated to the England Championship without any dinner or promises of an EPL return.

The leading goal scorer in the EPL last season was Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (27 goals), a Norwegian giant (6-5, 205) who led his proud Scandinavian country to a respectable showing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup before losing to Harry Kane and England in a classic.

Brentford’s Igor Thiago (22), Haaland’s City teammate Antoine Semenyo (17), and Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (16) followed in the top scorers from last season in the Premiership.

At Kalshi, traders have Haaland as the favorite again to be the EPL Golden Boot Winner (68%), followed by Liverpool’s Alexander Isak (15%) and Chelsea’s João Pedro (13%), who will be staying at Stamford Bridge after some speculation that CFC may sell the Brazilian star over this Summer.

➤Trading Thoughts: With veteran Salah gone from Anfield, Isak will be expected to pick up some of the scoring slack for the Reds, while Pedro will be glad to stay with the Blues but will need a healthy Cole Palmer and Estêvão to feed him to get more than 22 to beat Haaland somehow.

Watkins probably won’t have the kind of prolific season he had at Villa Park a year ago. In contrast, others like United’s Benjamin Sesko, Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres and Kai Havertz, and City’s Semenyo may surprise. If AMF Phil Foden returns to form, Haaland could score 30 this season.

⚽EPL Golden Boot Winner Picks: Erling Haaland, Yes 67¢, Kai Havertz, Antoine Semenyo Yes 8¢

Expect the 2026-27 EPL season to be much like last season, with Arsenal and Manchester City fighting for 1-2 again, Chelsea starting strong only to let its fans down, Manchester United returning to prominence, Aston Villa slipping a bit, and Tottenham Hotspur in the top 10.

The three clubs promoted to the EPL— Coventry City, Hull City, and Ipswich Town —may be the three teams relegated. Two clubs who seem to get better every season are Evanilson and AFC Bournemouth (6th place), Brighton & Hove Albion (8th), and Igor Thiago and Brentford (9th).

Aston Villa and Liverpool seem like teams that could either improve or decline this season, and the Villains losing Morgan Rogers (CFC) and Youri Tielemans (MUFC) may hurt their chances in the EPL and the UCL.

Manchester City saw legendary manager Pep Guardiola leave; now Enzo Maresca takes over in Sky Blue Mancunia, where Rayan Cherki and the Noisy Neighbors welcome in MF Elliot Anderson (NOT) and may reportedly go after Chelsea MF Enzo Fernandez should Barcelona sign MF Rodri.

At Polymarket, Arsenal (41%) is atop the EPL: 2027 Champion trading chart before Matchweek 1 starts on Friday in Londontown, followed by Manchester City (24%), Liverpool (13%), Manchester United (11%), Chelsea (10%), Tottenham Hotspur (3%), and Aston Villa (1%) registering enough ‘Yes’ rainfall.

The other 13 trading at <1% were Newcastle United, Everton, the aforementioned Brighton, Brentford, and Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, Sunderland, and those three sour-smelling promoted sides, Coventry City, Hull City, and Ipswich Town.

➤Trading Thoughts: With Haaland, Jérémy Doku, Antoine Semenyo, Phil Foden, Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, Savinho, Jeremy Monga, Mateo Kovačić, Omar Marmoush, Divin Mubama, and new GK Gianluigi Donnarumma, Maresca will be fine, and this team is loaded with more young talent.

⚽EPL: 2027 Champion Pick: Manchester United, Yes 11¢

Manchester City FC will welcome AFC Bournemouth to the Etihad Stadium (Desso GrassMaster) in Greater Manchester, England on this Sunday, August 23 (USA Network, 9 EDT/8 CDT/6 PDT), as the Citizens usher in the Enzo Maresca era.

City faced Arsenal in the FA Community Shield on Sunday, August 16, and Erling Haaland and the Sky Blues embarrassingly started the season, getting blitzkrieged by Arsenal, 3-0 as the Gunners scored the quickest goal in FA Community Shield history (25 seconds) and coasted thereafter.

At Robinhood Predictions, traders have Manchester City as solid 68% favorites over Evanilson and visiting AFC Bournemouth (15%), with a Draw (Tie) trading at 18%. The Total (Goals) is at 3.5 with the ‘Yes’ prices at 46¢, and the ‘No’ trading at 53¢, a week out from the game on August 16.

➤Trading Thoughts: The City Starting XI won’t have played much together, and GK Donnarumma will try to settle in as the new man in the south while mad viking Haaland controls the north. With Doku, Cherki and Semenyo on the front line of a 4-2-3-1 tactical formation, Haaland should score.

The defensive midfield and back four may present questions for new manager Marseca, and with the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prop a profitable 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two clubs. With a new GK, we can expect the visitors to score at the Etihad while probably allowing 3.

Predicting is about trying to foresee and forecast the future, using what we have seen and know from the past, combined with changes that make teams different from what they were in the last seasons we saw shaped in our heads. Haaland has scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings (5 goals total).

MUFC is 3-1-1 in its last 5 vs the Cherries (10 GF-6 GA), and a deeper sample-size dive, where the fish have headlights on their heads, reveals the Citizens are 18-1-1 vs Bournemouth (57 GF-14 GA), with BTTS (‘Yes’) at 10-2. The Cherries' only win vs MCFC was back on November 2, 2024.

⚽EPL Sunday Picks: Manchester City, Yes 68¢, Over 2.5, Yes 69¢, Both Teams To Score , Yes, 60¢

Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets has carved out a nice little niche in the growing space, with this CFTC-regulated Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) serving up ‘Yes-No’ or fixed outcome contracts for traders on the exchange via access from Kalshi, ForecastX, and CME Group venues.

This setup allows brokers to compare prices, access universal exchanges, and find the best perceived value across the various markets in which they trade. Interactive Brokers is all about Economics, Finance, Climate, and other broader venue-dependent contracts with no Sports.

Looking at the Will the SAVE Act Become Law? market at IB, the predictive masses are screaming ‘No’ (94.3%) with ‘Yes’ trading at just 5.6% on August 9, 2026.

Just what is The SAVE Act? Is this another grift from our orange president to try to control this and future elections? The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE Act)—also known as the SAVE America Act—is a federal bill that would change how Americans register to vote and cast ballots.

You can read about the SAVE Act here at vote.org. Pretending non-U.S. citizens are voting en masse, or even at smaller levels, is an insult to those who have helped make sure elections are as secure and easy to vote as possible,

Demonizing mail-in voters and trying to change the way Americans vote in a Mid-term election year and requiring passports or photo IDs to vote is silly. An egomaniacal Republican, the party that holds the power in all three branches of federal government for now, is behind this sham.

Voters in the state of New Jersey worried about voting in the midterms see this:

Derek Stevens, the esteemed owner of Circa Resort & Casino and several other downtown Las Vegas properties, has always been on the front foot of sports betting, creating the world’s largest sportsbook here in Las Vegas as well as the world’s best NFL contest in his baby Circa Survivor.

The 58-year-old Detroit product voiced his opinion on prediction markets a couple of times last week, joining the growing chorus “on the other side” complaining that these CFTC-regulated trading platforms are simply gambling sites dressed up in different clothes.

Because the majority of trading revenue on major prediction markets comes from the Sports category, perceived enemies of prediction markets find it easy to demonize the industry.

This includes states like New York seeking the tax revenue, Gaming and Indian gaming lobbies who hate the competition as it cuts into their profits, the Christians and Conservatives who demonize any types of perceived gambling, and some shallow politicians jumping on board by party lines.

Stevens and his brother Greg—also the owners of the Golden Gate Hotel and Casino and the D Las Vegas (formerly Fitzgerald’s)—have supported Trump, and the Circa held a rally for Trump on January 25, 2025, after His Orangeness went on to win the 2024 US Presidential election.

Trump is obviously a PM- and crypto-friendly president. Son Donald Trump Jr. serves on the boards of Kalshi and Polymarket. Trump appointed Michael Selig to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, giving the Fed body authority over the US prediction market universe.

And here we are. Everyone is mad. Everyone is mad while Kalshi, Polymarket, and Circa set new records. Maybe DraftKings and FanDuel are the ones who should be mad? Wait, they both opened their own prediction markets. Never mind. Anyway, Stevens went off on the prediction markets.

“At what point will US and State Legislators realize that Kalshi and PolymarketSport and other #Prediction Markets are simply legal illegal gambling?” Stevens said in a tweet on X.

“They’re thieves. They’re pirates. We can offer -102 splits either way as well, if we didn't have all the fees to pay. I tend to believe that more balanced heads are going to prevail,” Stevens complained.

He is also mad that prediction markets currently don’t have to pay state gaming taxes, the federal sports-betting excise tax, problem-gambling funds, and other fees, such as league data fees. “We’re paying all those fees. They don’t. Effectively, they’re thieves.” And he makes a good point there.

But the demonization and politicization of the current reality comes across as a bit phony. New York is going after prediction markets, yet the biggest prediction markets are headquartered in New York City. Common ground needs to be found soon, as all the sides involved look silly now.

Kalish-basher Matt Kalish—the irony—is one of the co-founders of DraftKings and has been very vocal on Twitter on how bad he thinks prediction markets are. Like Stevens, he makes some very valid points. But his overkill makes Kalish’s arguments moot. Someone, please take his phone away.

But this seems more like the cigarette companies mad that marijuana is becoming legal in a sense. Everyone is smoking (gambling), and one side is mad at the other that they aren’t smoking their (dangerous?) plant, or paying taxes. Nevada is a casino state, and the lobby here is very strong.

So the lobbyists, lawyers, and politicians do what they do best—attack whatever the issue is, unthinkingly. If Joe Biden were president now and prediction markets weren’t subject to the CFTC's current regulation, what would these people be doing? They’re all getting paid, either way.

Kalshi General Counsel Rick Heaslip deemed the Nevada Gaming Control Board’s (NGCB) lawsuit to be “a vindictive waste of taxpayer dollars at the bidding of the casinos.” Heaslip said Kalshi “went above and beyond to geofence Nevada as requested. We hired a state-approved vendor and updated Nevada every step of the way, with no response.”

“Instead of engaging, they falsified information (breaking federal law) to hunt for a loophole and manufacture another grievance,” Heaslip said in the August 13 statement from Kalshi. Even then, we addressed it within hours, but they ran to court anyways.”

The CFTC will play the role of the substitute teacher warning you not to use a calculator, as it has warned prediction markets against using American odds on their platforms. Some use the + and - signs on their apps, just like sportsbooks do, and the perception that these PMs are sportsbooks needed spray paint.

This warning to display clear pricing information will affect some companies in the space, including DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and newcomers Novig and Underdog. Still, likely only cosmetically, as sports traders bet where they bet and look for the best numbers, however they are displayed.

When looking at the FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions pages, you can see the CFTC’s point and what the federal agency is talking about when it comes to mimicking sportsbooks. It’s hard to argue a PM isn’t a sportsbook when your MLB page looks like this (August 11):

We wrap up our look at the Group of 6 NCAAF conferences in this issue, just in time for NCAA Football Week 0 (August 27-29) next week, followed by NCAAF Week 1 (September 3-7) when FBS and FCS College Football come crashing back into our lives like a fresh breath of cool air.​

Last year, in 2025, in the FBS Mid-American Conference, Western Michigan defeated Miami, 23-13, in the MAC Championship Game. Ohio, Toledo, and Miami were the MAC-runners-up. This year, 13 teams will play in the MAC Regular Season running from September 3 to December 5.​

The 2026 MAC Championship Game will again be played indoors at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, on Saturday, December 5, 2026, with the teams with the two best records colliding for the third straight year in the FBS Midwestern conference, now without divisions.

In the 2026 Mid-American Conference Champion market at Robinhood Predictions, traders were backing Miami Ohio (22¢) over Toledo (21¢), Western Michigan (19¢), Central Michigan (12¢), Ball State (11¢), Ohio (8¢), Buffalo (7¢), Eastern Michigan (7¢), and Akron (6¢).​

The big MAC underdogs at Robinhood on August 9 were Bowling Green (5¢), new members Sacramento State (3¢), perennial rat Kent State (2¢), and Massachusetts (1¢). Perennial MAC football powers Northern Illinois left for the Mountain West Conference, previewed last issue.

➤Trading Thoughts: The MAC might not have a CFP candidate, but Western Michigan may be good enough to be ranked in the Top 25 and repeat in 2026. With QB Broc Lowry, RB Jason Buckley, OT Chad Schuster, DB Josh Franklin, and a 6-game win streak (10-1 L11), they rock.​

Expect that streak to be snapped like a twig by a bear when WMU opens with Big Ten Conference elitists Michigan in Week 1 in The Big House in Ann Arbor (NBC, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT). Odds makers have the Wolverines as 26.5-point favorites over the Broncos with the Total at 47.5.​

A big conference game will come in the last game of the MAC Regular Season on Tuesday, November 24, when Miami is at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo. The two split last season, and this one may determine who plays in that aforementioned MAC Championship Game two weeks later.​

🏈Mid-American Conference Champion Pick: Western Michigan, Bid 19¢, Ask 20¢ (August 16)

At Robinhood in the 2026 Pac-12 Conference Champion market, new conference member Boise State (35¢) is the rightful and solid favorite, followed by another former MWC school and new member San Diego State University (21¢), which made the jump to the former Power 5 conference.​

After that, it’s Fresno State (14¢), Texas State (14¢), charter member Washington State (14¢), Utah State (6¢), Colorado State (3¢), and Oregon State (3¢). Boise State, SDSU, Colorado State, Fresno State, and Utah State left the MWC for the Pac-12, which also added Texas State (Sun Belt).​

The now 8-team and constantly evolving Pac-12 lost 10 teams in 2024 to the ACC (CAL, STAN), Big Ten (ORE, UCLA, USC, WASH), and Big 12 (AZ, ASU, COL, UTAH), and this will be its first season back after being granted a 2-year grace period by the NCAA. Gonzaga joins in NCAAB.

➤Trading Thoughts: If anyone in the new-look Pac-12 can make a run at a CFP bid, it’s the Broncos of Boise State, and this now backup band G6 conference boasts a school with a non-traditionally colored turf in their stadium with BSU sporting the blue Smurf Turf at Albertsons Stadium.​

The biggest Boise State games will come on Saturday, October 10 at Fresno State (CW, 10:30 EDT/7:30 PDT); Saturday, October 24 at WSU (USA Network, 6 EDT/3 PDT); and the regular-season finale on Saturday, November 21 vs SDSU (USA Network, 9:30 EDT/6:30 PDT).​

With those three games and dates against Oregon (September 5), Memphis (September 12), and at defending MAC champions Western Michigan (September 26), it's hard to see QB Max Cutforth, RB Dylan Riley, and BSU not being beat up by October or having at least 3 losses.​

🏈Pac-12 Conference Champion Pick: Boise State, Bid 35¢, Ask 36¢ (August 16)​

On Wednesday, July 1, the Boston Red Sox sat in last place in the AL East with a 32-46 record, 14 games under .500 and essentially dead in the water and limping into the 2026 All-Star Break and possibly thinking of just waiting to next season and maybe trading some of the team’s talent.

But Boston went on to win 14 of its next 16 behind solid pitching and smart hardball, getting to 46-48 at the break and opening many eyes not only in MLB but across the entire sports world. But could the Carmines keep winning? You know it. The Bosox went 18-3 to start the 2nd half.

That put Boston at 64-51 and an amazing 13 games above .500 on August 7 after a mind-boggling 32-5 run in one of the best runs in MLB history. The Sox finally lost 2 straight and a series to the A’s August 9, proving God has a sense of humor and a spot in her heart for a team without a city.

Over this phenomenal July-August run, Boston got itself back in the AL Playoff race and also realized it didn’t have to panic about key youngsters SP Payton Tolle, OF Roman Anthony, and OF Ceddane Rafaela (.284/15/60), who has been a massive part of the team’s miraculous turnaround.

During the run, the Red Sox went 15-0 against teams in first place as Wilson Contreras (.285/23/70), Wilyer Abreu (.255/20/63), and Jarren Durbin (.251/11/54) did enough at the plate as the starting pitching blossomed, led by LHPs Sonny Gray (14-2) and Tolle (7-6, 3.10 ERA).

At Kalshi in the American League Champion market, the Red Sox are now being given a 20% chance of winning the Junior Circuit and a 9% chance of winning the World Series. Still, Boston needs to make the Playoffs, but the 32-7 run (as of Aug. 9) had them in the thick of the AL WC race.

Trading on Boston to win through this Summer streak has been profitable for prediction market enthusiasts and sports gamblers alike, and where it ends, only the body knows. Could this team win the Fall Classic and leave us with memories of a lifetime like Indiana did in NCAAF earlier?

The Red Sox acquired C’s Ashley Rutschman and Jake Rogers (BAL) to shore up the position and also dealt for 3B Curtis Mead (WAS; .253/17/48), OF Eli White (ATL), and RP Erik Miller (SF). With several injuries, GM Craig Breslow was smart in naming Terry Francona interim manager.

The 2026-27 La Liga season is now underway, and on Wednesday, Atlético Madrid hosts promoted club Málaga at Riyadh Air Metropolitano (Grass)—aka Metropolitano Stadium—in Madrid, Spain. It's the first match for both (ESPN+, ESPN Deportes, 3 EDT/3 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).

GK Jan Oblak and Atlético Madrid are big 76% favorites over visiting Málaga (9%) at Kalshi, with a Draw (Tie) trading at 16% on August 16. Still, there was lower-than-low volume ($477), as trading had just started and there was no liquidity to write about yet. Sportsbook users don’t have to sweat liquidity.

At Robinhood, Atlético is given a slim chance (4¢) of beating out defending champs Barcelona (55¢) and Real Madrid (48¢) for the league crown. Since 2004, only Atlético Madrid (2) and powerhouses and Euro elites Real Madrid (7) or Barcelona (13) have won La Liga. Recognize.

➤Trading Thoughts: Atlético Madrid hasn’t played Málaga in over 10 years, and in the last 5 meetings, it has been all Atléti, with Los Rojiblancos sporting a 5-0-0 record and 4 Clean Sheets vs Los Albicelestes (The White and Sky-Blues), outscoring Málaga 9-2.

A deeper statistical dive reveals that Julián Álvarez, Koke, Alexander Sørloth, and Atlético have gone 17-7-6 against Málaga in Primera División and 40-19-13 all-time in all competitions across all divisions in Spain. Málaga hasn’t scored on AM in almost 10 years (October 29, 2016).

Nico González (Juventus) and club legend Antoine Griezmann (Orlando City) are gone, but Giuliani Simore showed his worth last season (4 goals, club-leading 6 assists)

⚽La Liga Wednesday Match Pick: Atlético Madrid 76¢

The Liga MX: 2026 Apertura Champion market at Polymarket sees traders giving four different clubs a double-digit percentage chance of winning the league championship, a title held by Toluca, with Cruz Azul the recent Clausura 2026 champions south of the border.

Cruz Azul (19%) was being given the best chance to win this season of Liga MX, with Guadalajara (15%), Club América (15%), and Toluca (9%) all following. The teams have won the last six straight Apertura and Clausura seasons in Liga MX (AME 3, TOL 2, CRUZ 1).

The last Liga MX club not from that group of teams not to win either was Tigres UANL (2023 Apertura), and traders give them just a 7% chance to win Apertura, the same number as Monterrey on August 16. Pumas UNAM checked it at 9%, with at least a perceived chance.

The Liga MX: 2026 Apertura Champion underdogs? Atlante (5%), Tijuana (4%), Atlas (4%), FC Santos Laguna (4%), Atlético de San Luis (3%), Necaxa (2%), FC Juárez (2%), Querétaro (1%), León (1%), Puebla (1%), and Pachuca (1%),

➤Trading Thoughts: After four matches into the new season, two of the 18 clubs hadn’t lost yet (América, Tijuana) while four sad and mad Mexican clubs were still seeking their first victory of the still young 2026 Apertura campaign (FC Juárez, FC Santos, Tigres UANL, Atlético de San Luis).

América (Brian Rodríguez, Alejandro Zendejas), Cruz Azul (GK Kevin Mier), Toluca (Paulinho, Alexis Vega, Jesús Gallardo), Guadalajara (Armando González, Roberto Alvarado), and Monterrey (Lucas Ocampo) have the best rosters. With GK Luis Malagón, América is the lean to win again.

⚽Liga MX: 2026 Apertura Champion Pick: América, Yes 16¢

Recently, the discovery of this wonderful thing called a Pizza Quattro Formaggi opened my mind to the fact that there is so much I don’t know. Four can be a beautiful combination of things, as The Beatles, Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, and any creature who walks on all four legs know.

In the spirit of four pizzas within a single pizza—and because the prices of betting or trading on these four soccer teams as European play returns—here is a four-team Soccer pizza with a section to eat over Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It might not be fun, but who really cares.

Here are the four picks (Atlético Madrid-Arsenal-Manchester United-Manchester City) with market links and the Kalshi (‘Yes’) price from the three-way Moneyline market on August 8:

➤Trading Thoughts: Atlético Madrid and GK Jan Oblak may register a Clean Sheet vs promoted Málaga, a club it hasn’t faced in a decade. In the last 5 meetings, Atlético is a perfect 5-0-0, outscoring the Los Albicelestes (The White and Sky-Blues) 9-2 with 4 CS.

Viktor Gyökeres and Arsenal won the EPL last season and face a Frank Lampard-led Coventry side in the season lidlifter, a club promoted to the EPL, one the Gunners have beaten in both meetings (10 GF-1 GA). MUFC finished strong last season and are 2-2-1 in their last 5 vs Hull City, who are also promoted.

Erling Haaland and the Citizens may fight Arsenal for the crown again, so winning Sunday is a must. MCFC has the best all-time opening day EPL record (16-6-6). In the L5 vs Bournemouth, the Citizens are 3-1-1 (10 GF-6 GA) with the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) Prop (‘Yes’) a perfect 5-0.

⚽Soccer 4-Team Weekend Combo Pick: Atlético Madrid-Arsenal-MUFC-MCFC

 ➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at state judges turning up the heat on prediction markets, some differences between PMs and casinos, another Emmy Awards preview as well as microhandicaps for the NFL MVP, NCAAF Week 0, La Liga and EPL matches, the F1 Dutch Grand Prix, and the NASCAR Cup Series Dollar Tree 301 in New Hampshire, both on Sunday.”