Election Day on Tuesday

Halloween brought fake fear, costumes, and candy, but the real horror comes Tuesday, when the 2026 Midterm Elections will be held, and what we saw in the prediction markets may be obscured by political meddling and obfuscation.

Plus, we chop up the start of the Men’s College Basketball season, the weekly Earnings calendar and preview the NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award winner, four SEC Conference showdowns on Saturday including #3 Georgia-#12 Ole Miss, and the Jaguars vs. Ravens Thursday night NFL game.

Election Day, the big political day of the year, finally comes tomorrow, Tuesday, November 3, with the 2026 Midterm Elections: 39 elections for governor will be held in our red, white, and blue country, along with 433 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate.

Prediction markets have become the ultimate tool for measuring elections, and they've become so Matrix-like that we’ve seen candidates in some elections—Laurie Buckhout (NC), Mark Moran (VA), Ezekiel Enriquez (TX), and Matt Klein (MN)—actually betting on themselves.

So Congress stepped in. Well, at least half of Congress has so far. The Senate unanimously passed a resolution banning body members, staff, and officers from trading on prediction markets. The House of Representatives has also introduced its own bills and proposals, but nothing yet.

The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act and a proposal by Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) to prevent members of the House, as well as their families, from betting on anything politics-related are still pending. The House had been in session only 72 days in 2026 and in recess for 197 days (73%).

Looking at the Balance of Power 2026 at Polymarket one more time ($49,565,760) before Election Day, it looks the same as it has been the last month, with a Democrats Sweep (72%) the top choice, followed by R Senate, D House (23%), Republicans Sweep (5%), and D Senate, R House (<1%).

The high-profile Texas Senate Election has Democrat James Talarico (71%) ahead of Republican Ken Paxton (30%) by a nearly identical margin. Still, some polls in the Lone Star State showed a much tighter race, meaning maybe some future value in buying Paxton ‘Yes’ at 30¢.

Talarico led Paxton by just 2 points in the Emerson College poll (48%-46%), with a Fox News survey showing the two tied at 49% in polls updated October 25. MS NOW's Poll of Polls showed Talarico with a 3% lead (49.2%-46.5%). In traditionally red Texas, maybe the polls are right.

Whatever happens, don’t expect it to happen fast with this Congress and rogue administration. If the Republicans lose power in both houses of Congress, fear of impeachment will weigh heavily on the 80-year-old Commander in Chief, and he may pull out all of his dirty tricks. We’ll see by Friday.

“This is truly the first prediction-market election. The best way to get informed about what’s happening with our elections is not giving the microphone to a select few. It’s just to let the market speak. It’s to let the people speak. And that’s what the prediction markets do.”

—Tarek Mansour to Politico

In the last edition of The Prediction Report, we highlighted the tipoff on Monday night of the Men’s Division I (DI) NCAA College Basketball Regular Season, where we’ll see two months or so of nonconference games and some great tournaments before conference play begins in January.

Last year, Big Ten Conference stalwart Michigan won it all, but as has been for a few decades, college hoops programs change as much in a season as a deciduous tree sheds its dried brown and orange leaves in fall and regrows them in spring, when green is the renewing color.

In Kalshi’s Men’s 2027 College Basketball Champion Futures book, the voyage goes from the time these trees shed their leaves until hope springs eternal. Duke (15%), Florida (12%), UConn (7%), Illinois (6%), Michigan State (4%), Texas (4%), and Arizona (4%) are the traders' choices.

Patrick Ngongba and the Blue Devils start the season ranked #2 in the 2026-27 Hoops Polls, and tonight (Monday) Duke will usher in a new season for the Cameron Crazies in Durham, North Carolina, vs. Independent Army (ESPNU, Patriot League TV, 6:30 EST/5:30 CST/3:30 PST).

The point spread at DraftKings—who reports earnings on Thursday, as we typed above when we were much younger—sees Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje—luxuries of having such a cool name—John Blackwell, and Dame Sarr, and hosts Duke as a healthy 42.5 chalk, with the Total at 150.5.

Besides Duke, Florida, Tennessee, Illinois, Michigan State, Connecticut, Houston, and basket case Arizona are some schools to watch early on and see how they play in November and December in the age of NIL. But the NCAAB has always had the perennial turnover we now see in the NCAAF.

The Earnings Calendar isn’t too busy this week, with just one company reporting Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and seven giving reports Thursday, November 5. On Monday, November 2, Waystar (WAY) reports, and traders give it a 75% chance to beat quarterly earnings.

On Tuesday, November 3—Election Day here in the United States of America—only Aptiv (APTV) will be reporting. Aptiv is an S&P component on the NYSE (APTV) and was trading at $43.93 on Sunday, November 1, significantly down from the stock’s 52-week high price of $78.49.

On Wednesday, November 4, Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) will share its third-quarter (Q3) 2026 financial results before the NYSE opening bell. You can access the meeting, which starts at 9 am EST (8 CST/6 PST), at the Kraft Heinz (NYSE: KHC) investor relations page.

On Thursday, November 5, popular online sportsbook DraftKings (DKNG) will report its earnings after the Nasdaq closing bell. DraftKings (Nasdaq: DKNG) was given a 69% chance of beating earnings by traders on Polymarket International.

You can listen to the DraftKings earnings report on the conference call live or on replay by accessing the Boston-based company’s Investor Relations Page. Your value is internal.

Reporting before the opening bell on Thursday will be Teleflex (TFX) and Shake Shack (SHAK), with Cloudflare (NET), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Dropbox (DBX), and Con Edison (ED), like DraftKings, all reporting their quarterly earnings after the markets have closed on Thursday.

Click here for the Weekly Earnings Predictions Calendar at Polymarket

In the NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award winner at DraftKings Predictions, Boston Celtics energy-man Payton Pritchard (53%) was the prediction market trader’s top event contract (‘Yes’) buy on November 1, with Thunder SG Jared McCain (20%) next a week into the new season.

Following in trading order in the 2027 6MOY market were Lakers SG Collin Sexton (13%), Rockets G Reed Sheppard (13%), Jazz SF Ace Bailey (12%), Spurs G Dylan Harper (12%), and OKC PG Ajay Mitchell (12%).

Mitchell finished second in the 6MOY voting last NBA 2025-26 Regular Season behind winner Keldon Johnson (13.2 PPG) of SA and played all 82 games for the Western Conference champ Spurs off the bench. Heat G Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nuggets G Tim Hardaway Jr. were #3 and #4.

At 11% early on November 1 were Knicks PG Miles McBride, Magic PG Anthony Black, Lakers PG Quentin Grimes, Celtics C Mitchell Robinson, Celtics SG Hugo González, Pelicans G-SF Benedict Mathurin, Heat PF Bobby Portis, and Thunder SG-SF Cason Wallace.

SGA and the Thunder have one of the deepest and most talented rosters in NBA history, no hyperbole. With G’s Mitchell, McCain, and Wallace, PF Alex Caruso (8.0/5.0/3.0), and backup C Jaylin Williams, the OKC second-string is better than many teams’ first-string.

Drafting Michigan big man Aday Mara (7-3, 262) gives the Thunder three towers over 7 feet tall with starting PF Chet Holmgren (7-1, 208) and starting C Isaiah Hartenstein (7-0, 250). So this team has size, experience, and youth at the same time, plus depth, and is still thinking dynasty.

In the East, both defending champions New York and rivals Boston have nice depth, but the Celtics bench shines with sparkplug Pritchard, big man Robinson—who is now a starter and not really a Sixth Man—González, and SF Sam Hauser. But the Thunder backups are all superior players.

And the statistics will matter after 82 games, so deciding between Mitchell, McCain, and Wallace is the logical approach. Gazing into the purple crystal ball, sharpshooter and Duke product McCain gets the nod as OKC looks to dethrone SA in the West and dribble on to the 2027 NBA Finals.

QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (4-2, 1-1 Home) and QB Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars (4-2, 1-1 Road) from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) top off NFL Week 9 play on Thursday evening (Prime Video, 8:15 EST/7:15 CST/6:15 MST/5:15 PST).

Both teams have been playing well, with QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) hoping to return to the fold for Baltimore, who will really need him here on out, playing in the competitive AFC North division where all four teams had records above .500 heading into Week 8 play (18-9 SU). Woof.

At Polymarket, the Ravens are 58% favorites to beat the Jaguars, while the Jaguars are 43%—unexpected percentages when birds may battle cats. However, The Tackling Edgar Allan Poes have never been gentle beings on the defensive side, as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Tony Siragusa, and Terrell Suggs all demonstrated.

In the last 9 meetings between these two AFC animals, the Ravens are 5-4 SU (3-6-0 ATS), with the Under going a profitable 6-3-0 over that span (2008-2023), cashing in 3 of the last 4 trips to Crab City. The two have alternated wins in the last 6 (BAL-JAX-BAL-JAX-BAL-JAX).

The Home team is 6-3-0 in those games, and Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are a better football team than they were back then. The Ravens were 1-4-0 ATS heading into Cincinnati, but Tyler Huntley was filling in for the constantly hurt Jackson, who unknowingly hamstrings the franchise.

Here, the victory matters more for the hosts, playing in the AFC North. In the AFC South, Jacksonville is the king of the castle (for now) and won’t be crippled by a loss. The forecasted November weather (56.7° F ) shouldn’t hinder the team from the Sunshine State.

Despite the Big Ten Conference becoming the rockstar it has become in NCAAF, the Southeastern Conference (SEC) is still Paul McCartney to the Big Ten’s John Lennon. On Saturday, we have another buffet of great games from this extremely proud, 16-team football-loving conference.

In a game that may bounce the Vols from the CFP, #16 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2 SEC) hosts #9 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1 SEC) at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee, on Saturday, where the hosts need the win after a Week 8 loss at SC plummeted their CFP chances from 43% to 19% at Kalshi.

Another showdown between two 2-loss SEC teams sees #13 Alabama (6-2, 4-2 SEC) at #15 LSU (6-2, 3-2 SEC) at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana on Saturday (ABC, 3:30 EST/12:30 PST).

Fear and Loathing in Austin continues when Arch Manning and #11 Texas (5-2, 2-2 SEC) travel to the Show Me State and Memorial Stadium in Columbia to face #23 Missouri (6-2, 3-2 SEC) in another SEC RS game (ESPN, 12 EST/9 PST), which will not eliminate the loser in the CFP fray.

The sites will prove to be huge in these three SEC games—as well as the Georgia-Ole Miss dance we preview below—and we may very well see a minor mass extinction if Kentucky, Alabama, and Texas all get their third losses of the year and lose on the road Saturday.

Tennessee (4-1 at Home), LSU (5-0), and Mizzou (4-0) have all been absolutely terrific on home turf this season, so this could be a dark day for three historic programs and a good thing for liquor sales in Knoxville, Baton Rouge, and Columbia this weekend.

Alabama is 8-2 SU in its last 10 vs. LSU (6-4-0 ATS) and has covered the last 3 straight, while Tennessee is also 8-2 in its last 10 vs. Kentucky and 7-3-0 ATS. Texas is 3-1-0 SU/ATS against Missouri since the Longhorns joined the SEC, with the last 3 meetings all going Under the Total.

The high-profile game on the SEC Week 10 schedule on Saturday will see QB Gunner Stockton and #3 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) facing QB Trinidad Chambliss and #12 Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2 SEC) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Grass) in Oxford, Mississippi (ABC, 4 EST/3 CST/2 MST/1 PST).

A loss here won’t hurt the Dawgs CFP chances as much as it will hurt the Rebels, who already have conference setbacks at Florida and at Texas. The CFP Qualifier market at prediction market Kalshi is giving Georgia an 89% chance of making the CFP, with Mississippi trading at 46% on October 25.

Online sportsbook FanDuel has Georgia slight 2.5 chalks over Ole Miss with the Total at 49.5. At Kalshi, traders also like Georgia (59%) over Ole Miss (44%) despite the game being played at The Vaught, where no visitor has won since Kentucky on September 28, 2024.

After dismembering Auburn at home on Halloween (45-15), Ole Miss now possesses the longest home winning streak of all Power 4 schools at 16 straight. Mid-American Conference member Ohio had won 17 straight after downing Eastern Michigan at The Frank on October 24.

Looking at the last 9 games in this series, Georgia is 6-3 SU and 5-4-0 ATS, but Heisman Trophy candidate Chambliss and the Rebels upset Georgia on New Year’s Day (39-34), winning outright as 6.5 underdogs in the 2026 CFP Semifinals at the Sugar Bowl in NO.

The Under is 5-4-0 in those games, but the Over has gotten the money the last 2 (73, 78 points scored). Notably, the last 4 games at Ole Miss have gone Under the Total: 23 (2006), 40 (2011), 59 (2016), and 38 (2024) points put up at Hollingsworth Field at The Vaught.

This one will be must-see TV, with Ole Miss needing the victory to avoid a toxic third loss and wanting to preserve the Home win streak at 6 All American Drive, where a sausage jambalaya will run you $16 and a souvenir Coca-Cola cup is $7.50 (refills $1). The heartburn is on the house.

The simple truth? Both deserve to be in a 12-team playoff. Georgia (43.0 PPG, #3), whose lone loss was to Auburn at home in Week 7 on Strange Saturday, is likely already in. This means more to Ole Miss (36.0 PPG, T-#34) for many reasons. A defensive battle is expected, but we are all guessing.

➠ In the next edition of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the NBA announcing partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi, the CFTC approving Rothera for KPI swaps, Jay-Z’s Super Bowl Halftime opening song, and preview the Iowa-#20 Northwestern and #8 BYU-#6 Utah NCAAF games on Saturday, and the 2026 São Paulo Grand Prix and the NFL Buccaneers at Bears showdown on Sunday.