Another Rate Hike Coming in 2026?

The Federal Reserve has just one more FOMC meeting in December, and the predictive masses seem to think it will hike rates by another 25 bps at the December 8-9 meeting in Washington, D.C.

Plus, we examine Time’s Person of the Year for 2026, Which Countries Will Have Recessions in 2026, and preview the 2027 World Series winner Futures market, the #2 Duke-#6 MSU game in NCAAB on Tuesday, the #4 Indiana-#20 USC collision in NCAAF on Saturday, and the Lions vs. Patriots meeting in the NFL Munich Game over in Germany on Sunday.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has just one meeting left this calendar year, a month from now, on December 8-9 in Washington, DC, when Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the FOMC will likely vote for another 25 bps rate hike if you read the prediction market tea leaves.

At Kalshi, in the ‘Next Fed Rate Hike?’ exchange, all the strikes hinted at another hike in numbers from November 8: Before 2027 (77%), Before July 2027 (86%), Before 2028 (90%), Before July 2028 (95%), and Before July 2029 (95%).

The collective wisdom of the prediction market masses on Polymarket in the ‘Fed Decision in December?’ trade also suggested the same, with 77% betting ‘Yes’ on a 25 bps Increase in a market nearing $16 million in trading volume (Polymarket International).

And at Robinhood in the December meeting, more of the same: Hike 25bps Increase (71¢), Fed Maintains Rate (30¢), Cut >25bps (3¢), Hike >25 bps (3¢), and Cut 25 bps (6¢). The Federal Reserve voted to maintain the federal funds target rate in the first five meetings this year.

Meeting #1—January 27-28: Unchanged (10-2 vote)

Meeting #2—March 17-18: Unchanged (11-1 vote)

Meeting #3—April 28-29: Unchanged (8-4 vote)

Meeting #4—June 16-17: Unchanged (12-0 vote)

Meeting #5—July 28-29: Unchanged (9-3 vote)

Meeting #6—September 15-16: Raised 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% (12-0 vote)

Meeting #7—October 27-28: Unchanged (10-2 vote)

In that last meeting, where the Fed again maintained the federal funds target rate, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack were the two dissenters, wanting a 25 basis point hike, which we'll likely see after the Federal Reserve unveils its last decision of 2026 on Wednesday, December 9.

Here are the dates for the eight scheduled FOMC meetings in 2027: January 26-27, March 16-17, April 27-28, June 8-9, July 27-28, September 14-16, October 26-27, and December 7-8.

CME FedWatch reported that Wall Street traders also expect a rate hike next month, giving it an 86% chance. With the current macroeconomic situation in quicksand and no end in sight to the problems in the Strait of Hormuz, a hike and another 12-0 vote seems likely.

Last year, in 2025, ‘The Architects of AI’ won Time magazine’s annual Person of the Year award, celebrating the main members behind the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), with the cover featuring the ‘architects’ like Elon Musk and Jensen Huang.

In Kalshi’s Time’s Person of the Year for 2026 trade, NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani was the favorite (21%), followed by Democratic Texas Senate candidate and winner James Talarico (17%), Canadian PM Mark Carney (14%), Pope Leo XIV (12%), Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (11%), and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (10%).

Interestingly, in the last week, non-mankind strikes like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei (6%), US President Donald Trump (5%), AI (5%)—not to be confused with the architects who have flesh and blood—and 2021 Time Person of the Year Elon Musk (4%) plummeted in the market. Do we cry?

This is always a very hard one to predict, with the favorites during the calendar year and even late in the award period seldom winning the award. From writing about this for a few years, the favorite is often just public perception, and the winner is a surprise.

In Polymarket’s Time 2025 Person of the Year ($55,475,124), Architects of AI/Other crushed competition like Trump, Musk, China’s Xi Jinping, Pope Francis, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and even its own baby, AI, unhappy it lost, leaving the sandbox and is now looking for grapes, AI porn, and WD-40.

The final decision on the winner of the Time Person of the Year comes down to the publication’s editor-in-chief (Sam Jacobs) or managing editor (Lily Rothman) after the editorial team and senior editors of the magazine, founded in 1923 by Briton Hadden and Henry Luce, provide candidates.

Given how dangerous AI seems to everyone in the summer and fall of 2026, maybe the person/institution that can put a saddle on this evolving technology, make it a clean ride that helps humanity, and keep it where it should be will win the 2026 Time Person of the Year.

Time is based in the Big Apple—the metropolis where Mamdani now sits as mayor—but he is the favorite, and seems like a controversial pick with a small body of work. What Zelenskyy and the Pope have done this year—as well as last year—is beyond admirable and more Nobel Peace Prize-worthy.

After the Blue Tsunami, even though he won nothing, Time may go with local boy Mamdani, but the way Carney steered Canada through its own change while maintaining his dignity and a solid relationship with the US despite all the silly rhetoric from the White House gets my respect.

The US has seemed to avoid a recession here in 2026, in one of the wackiest financial years ever, where things like bots, robots, tariffs, AI investment, US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the new and only trillionaire Elon Musk affected many bottom lines.

It doesn’t seem like a great year for the working class—the truckers, farmers, teachers, doctors and nurses, engineers, baristas, bartenders and waitresses, and small business owners—as AI hype and stench overwhelm the human element that has made economies thrive until now. Humans matter.

In Kalshi’s ‘Which Countries Will Have a Recession Before 2027?’, prediction market traders were giving three nations more than a 1% chance of falling into an economic recession: China (5.3%), the United Kingdom (3.3%), and India (1.1%).

Japan and Germany were both resolved as ‘Yes,’ despite not being in a technical recession. Still, both are struggling somewhat, so beware if putting your money in foggy markets like this one.

▶ TRADING THOUGHTS 3

This is a market best revisited in the first quarter of 2027, when a clearer idea of buying any potential ‘Yes-No’ contracts on a country will emerge, and you will have more room on the calendar to work. None of the above should see a recession in 2026.

The Milwaukee Brewers just delivered the city known for brewing its first-ever MLB World Series championship when the MVP William Contreras and the NL champion Brewers defeated the AL champion Tampa Bay Rays, 4-1, as the Senior Circuit club continued to get top-notch pitching.

We predicted the Brewers for you in the NLCS and the 2026 World Series, so let’s continue... wait a minute. Will they even be playing MLB in 2027? Is it worth handicapping what possibly won’t happen? The answer is: we don’t know, and of course we don't.

At the 2027 World Series Champions market at Kalshi, traders give the Dodgers (18.6%) the best chance to be MLB champions in 2027, followed by the Brewers (10.8%), the Yankees (7.1%), the Tigers (6.8%), Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and the Padres (6.8%), and the Braves (6.3%).

Junior Caminero and the defending AL champion Rays (6.3%) were also getting money, as were PCA and the Cubs (5.6%), the Guardians (5.3%), Red Sox (5.1%), the Mets (5%), the White Sox (4.8%), Bryson Stott and the Phillies (4.0%), the Orioles (3.9%), and the Rangers (3%).

The Brewers were motivated this past season by knowing they could beat the mighty Dodgers, and that Los Angeles was the team that had eliminated them in 2025. The Padres will be fueled by their loss to Milwaukee this fall, and SD looked like the second-best team.

With rosters likely not to change much and a nice collection of sluggers and elite relief pitching, expect either the Brewers or Padres to win the Fall Classic next year. The National League is superior to the American League, and getting both under 20 cents ahead of the crowd is genius.

NCAAB is great, as it spans three seasons and two calendar years and serves up early-season tilts between titans we may see meet again in the Final Four in April. And we have two great early-season showdowns in the State Farm Champions Classic at the United Center in Chicago.

The first will see Patrick Ngongba II, Dame Sarr and #2 Duke (-6.5) facing #6 Michigan State on Tuesday (ESPN, 7 ET/6 CT/4 PT) in the first game of the evening. The second game in the Windy City is also a treat, with #17 Kansas meeting #23 Kentucky (ESPN, 9:30 ET/8:30 CT/6:30 PT).

In the last 10 series meetings, Duke is 8-2 SU and a profit-taking 7-3-0 ATS against Michigan State, winning 3 straight SU/ATS. The Over went 6-4-0, with the last 2 games going Under. All 10 were close but 12- and 20-point Blue Devils wins.

While almost everyone else in NCAAB reloads and is NIL-drunk, Sparty returns All-Big Ten First team selection G Jeremy Fears (15.2 PPG, 9.4 APG, #1 in DI) and F Coen Carr (12.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG). With veteran coach Tom Izzo, MSU is worth NCAAB futures contract (bet) consideration.

Duke—who saw Five-star Class of 2027 F Asa Montgomery ink—is deep with G’s Cayden Boozer, Caleb Foster, Sarr, and three 7-foot frosh C’s in Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje (7-2), Maxime Meyer (7-1), and Cameron Williams (7-0) to go with Ngongba (6-11) and Drew Scharnowski (6-10).

The #20-ranked USC Trojans (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten) head east to the Hoosier State to face #4 Indiana (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) at Memorial Stadium (Hellas Matrix Helix) in a Big Ten brawl in Bloomington in NCAAF Week 11 on Saturday (CBS, 3:30 EST/2:30 CST/12:30 PST).

USC’s biggest win was against Ohio State (in Los Angeles) while Indiana’s only loss came to the Buckeyes here at The Rock in a low-scoring slog (OSU 19 IND 15). Will Grant Wilson start at QB for the shaky Hoosiers or will Coach Cignetti give Josh Hoover more snaps?

At Kalshi, in the USC vs. Indiana winner market, traders like Indiana (67%) over USC (33%). RB King Miller and Southern Cal (32.4 PPG, #39) have been productive on offense, but QB Jordan Maiava and the Trojans will have their work cut out for them vs. the Indiana D (12.4 PPG, #4).

Predictably, USC has won all four meetings against Indiana (1953-1982), outscoring the Hoosiers, 90-24 and shutting out the Crimson and Cream 21-0 in the only meeting at Little Pink Houses. These two have never met in the Modern CFP Era or the Curt Cignetti Era.

So those numbers? Meaningless. But there are some digits to chew on when handicapping this: Indiana is 9-1 SU in its last 10 but a soul-sucking 1-9-0 ATS. WR Charlie Becker and the Hoosiers may be the defending DI champs, but they’ll eat a hole in your wallet faster than a moth on meth.

Meanwhile in L.A. Land, USC has also been poor ATS (3-7-0 L10) and was on a 1-6-0 ATS streak earlier. Yikes. Both Indiana and USC had played 4 straight Unders heading into Week 11, and with the weather changing and the Sun so shy in November, the lean here is to take the Total Under.

The NFL is in Germany this weekend as QB Drake Maye and the New England Patriots (5-3) meet QB Jared Goff and the Lions (6-1) at FC Bayern Munich Stadium (Hybrid Grass) in Munich in NFL Week 10 and the NFL Munich Game on Sunday (FOX, 8:30 EST/7:30 CST/6:30 MST/5:30 PST).

At sports-only prediction market Novig, the Patriots were slight 1.5-point favorites over the Lions at Allianz Arena with the Total at 49.5. At Polymarket US, trading had just started and sat at 50%-50% with traders still waiting to see how the two teams performed.

The Lions have been an Over team, playing 5 straight Overs before 2 Unders, and playing on foreign soil will make it weird for both teams. In the last 5 meetings, NE went 4-1-0 SU and 3-1-0 ATS, with the team winning SU and also getting the money the last 4.

The Under went 3-2-0 in those games (2006-2022) and has cashed in the last 3 with just 42, 36, and 29 points scored. In the six NFL International games after Week 7 (Australia, Brazil, France, England 3x), teams scored 34, 65, 43, 36, 65, and 26 points, with the Under going 4-2-0.

➠In the next edition of The Prediction Report, we will look at the chances of a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, Will Two SpaceX Starships Dock Together Before 2028, Will There be a Recession in the US in 2027, the CFTC approving Rothera for KPI swaps, and preview the NBA Coach of the Year award, the #18 Missouri-#1 Georgia NCAAF game on Saturday, and the 49ers at Cowboys NFL Week 10 game on Sunday.