The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Cup Playoffs consist of 10 races called The Chase held from September 6 to November 8 and the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Homestead Miami Speedway in Homestead, Florida (TV—NBC, MRN, RADIO—MRN, SiriusXM, 6 ET/3 PT).

Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports) and his No. 5 Chevrolet won the NASCAR Cup Series Championship and The Chase a year ago, the second title in his career. This year, Denny Hamlin is the NASCAR points leader with Larson sitting in 7th place entering the Playoffs this weekend,

The former “win-and-in” format is gone in NASCAR, and now the top 16 drivers in the standings after the Regular Season has ended qualify for The Chase. This is very similar to how the Professional Golfers Association (PGA) has structured and runs its current postseason.

Ryan Preece (16th place) and his No, 17 Ford overtook Shane Van Gisbergen (17th place) and his No. 37 Chevrolet, dramatically securing the final Chase spot as he captured the Coke Zero Sugar 400 from Daytona International Speedway on August 29—better late than never, brother.​

Manufacturers Toyota (6) and Chevrolet (5) have the most drivers in this Stock Car Sweet Sixteen, with Ford seeing 5 cars make the final cut.

After Darlington, the drivers head to Madison, Illinois (September 13), Bristol (September 19), Kansas (September 27), Las Vegas (October 4), Charlotte (October 11), Phoenix (October 18), Talladega (October 25), Martinsville (November 1) before ending the NASCAR season in Miami.

The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Cup Playoffs get underway this weekend when drivers will race in the Cook Out Southern 500 at the historic Darlington Raceway (Asphalt) in Darlington, South Carolina on the night of Sunday, September 6 (USA Network, HBO Max, 8 EDT/7 CDT/5 PDT).

The playoff opener on the egg-shaped track in the Palmetto State comes after the last race of the NASCAR Regular Season, the 2026 Coke Zero Sugar 400 from Daytona Speedway, where the aforementioned Ryan Preece won the event, holding off Daniel Suárez for the checkered flag.

NASCAR Cup Series points leader Denny Hamlin (39%) is still the pick in the Kalshi NASCAR Cup Series Champion trading market as we head into September, with Ryan Blaney (13%), Christopher Bell (10%), Tyler Reddick (10%), Chase Briscoe (9%), and Kyle Larson (7%).

Ty Gibbs (6%), Chase Elliott (4%), Joey Logano (4%), Carson Hocevar (2%), William Byron (2%), and Bubba Wallace (1%) followed in the order of trading on September 2.

🚦Trading Thoughts: Blaney and Logano have two wins this Summer in the In-Season Challenge and have been driving well, while Hamlin has the most Top 5 Finishes (5) and Blaney the most Wins (5). What stands out? Five of the top six drivers in the standings are behind the wheels of a Toyota.

Bell, Buescher, and last year’s champion, Larson, have still yet to win a race this year. All 16 drivers who qualified for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Cup Playoffs started all 26 races. It seems the most logical approach for each race would be to look for a Toyota driver needing a checkered flag.

Reddick is now quietly sitting in third place behind Hamlin and Reddick, and at -35 points behind the leader, he could gain much confidence with a win in this first of the 10 Chase races in South Carolina on Sunday. Reddick has an impressive 16 Top 10 finishes in 2026 and those 5 wins.

🏁2026 NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 400 Winner Pick: Tyler Reddick, Yes 14¢

We’ve looked at the NFL Rushing and Receiving leaders futures markets at Kalshi, so let’s microanalyze the 2026 NFL Passing Yards Leader futures before the 2026-27 Regular Season kicks off in 5 days on September 9 as the Seahawks face the Patriots in a Super Bowl LIX rematch.

Lions QB Jared Goff (15%) is tops with traders with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (14%), Bengals QB Joe Burrow (12%), Rams QB Matthew Stafford (10%), Pats QB Drake Maye (8%), Bears QB Caleb Williams (7%), Bills QB Josh Allen (5%) and Chargers QB Justin Herbert (5%) all following.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (5%), 49ers QB Brock Purdy (5%), Packers QB Jordan Love (4%), Saints QB Tyler Shough (4%), Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (3%), Seahawks QB Sam Darnold (3%), Bucs QB Baker Mayfield (2%), Broncos QB Bo Nix (2%), and Texas QB CJ Stroud (2%) were next.

Texans QB C.J. Stroud (2%), Jets QB Geno Smith (2%), Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers (1%), Titans QB Cam Ward (1%), Colts QB Daniel Jones (1%), Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (1%), Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (1%), Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (1%). Cardinals Jacoby Brissett (1%) are longshots.

🚦Trading Thoughts: Last season, it was Stafford (4,707 passing yards) who led all QBs in NFL Passing Yards, and with star WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, expect the Rams—traders' and oddsmakers' favorites to win the Super Bowl LXI—to be pass-happy again this coming season.

With the SB at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, expect LA to run up scores. Avoiding injury to their starting QB is key for NFL teams, and in this market, staying healthy and getting in as many starts as possible is imperative. Stafford, Burrow, Love, and others are injury-prone. Hebert? Nah.

Prescott also has two great targets (Lamb, Pickens) as do Burrow and the Bengals (Chase, Higgins), Williams and the Bears (TE Loveland, Ozune), Goff and the Lions (St Brown, Williams), Maye and the Patriots (Brown, Diggs), and the Falcons (TE Pitts, London). If Atlanta only had a QB.

Burrow could stay healthy all of 2026, and with speedsters Chase (4.34 40-yard dash at LSU) and Higgins (4.43), the Yards After Catch (YAC) may give the Bengals signal-caller an extra 200 yards if he plays all 17 games. Cincy may be behind more than the Rams, Lions, and Pats and have to throw.

🏈2027 NFL Passing Yards Leader Winner Pick: Joe Burrow, Yes 13¢

NCAAF Week 1 sees Heisman Trophy candidate Darian Mensah, Malachi Toney, and national runners-up and #7-ranked Miami heading west to face Stanford at Stanford Stadium (Grass) in Palo Alto, California on Friday (ESPN, 9 EDT/8 CDT/6 PDT) in the ACC opener for both schools.

In the Miami (FL) vs. Stanford matchup on September 2, Miami is favored to win by a whopping 94% of NCAAF traders, with host Stanford at 6%. The (Point) Spread was Miami (FL) wins by over 23.5 (Yes 53¢, No 40¢), with the Over 47.5 points scored trading at Yes 62¢, No 52¢.

🚦Trading Thoughts: Miami was great Against The Spread (ATS) in 2025, going a profitable 11-5-0 while Stanford was 5-7 ATS. Lifetime, the Hurricanes and Cardinal have only played once, but it was last season with Miami winning 42-7 at home in a game Stanford led 7-0 after the 1st Quarter.

In the game at Miami Gardens in October, the Hurricanes had big edges over the Cardinal in Total Yards (404-144), 1st Downs (25-8), and Time of Possession (37-23). Carson Beck (NFL Arizona Cardinals) was Miami’s QB in that game while RB Mark Fletcher had a big night (106 yards, 3 TD).

With QB Mensah, RB, Fletcher, and WR Toney, the Canes (30.9 PPG, #49) will be able to control the sticks through ground and air, and despite losing some talent to the NFL on D (Bain Jr,, mesidor) Miami (14.8 PPG, #5) will still be a hard team to score on bo-th at home and on the road.

The Hurricanes covered ATS (-29.5) vs Stanford—winning by 35 with a 35-0 2nd Half—and head in as the winners of 5 straight against the betting number. The Cardinal finished last season on a 3-game ATS winning streak, and Stanford returns QB Ben Gulbranson (24 TD/20 INT).

🏈NCAA College Football Friday Night Pick: Miami wins by over 23.5 Yes 55¢

The darlings of NCAAF in 2025, HC Curt Cignetti and defending national champions Indiana look to start the new season off right when they welcome North Texas to Memorial Stadium (Hellas Matrix Helix) in Bloomington, Indiana early Saturday (FOX, 12 EDT/ 11 CDT/9 PDT) in Week 1.

In the North Texas vs. Indiana market at Kalshi, #5 Indiana is favored to win by 98%, with visitors North Texas trading at 2% on September 2. At popular online sportsbook DraftKings, the Point Spread was Indiana -45 with the Over/Under (Total Points) at 55.5 -115.

🚦Trading Thoughts: The Hoosiers lost a lot to the 2026 NFL Draft, but IU reloaded with players like QB Josh Hoover (TCU), WR Nick Marsh (MSU), and RB Turbo Richard (BC). Indiana ranked #7 in Scoring Offense (41.6 PPG) in DI, #2 in Scoring Defense (11.9 PPG), and #1 in TO Margin (+1.5).

Indiana transfer Tayven Jackson will reportedly start at QB for the Mean Green vs. his old team (Pete Thamel). He will have to be at his best as the disciplined Hoosiers don’t beat themselves, and this is the hope opener and WR Charlie Becker and IU head in a 16-game winning streak.

The Hoosiers had 3 wins of more than 40 points last season: 77-3 vs Western Illinois, 56-7 vs Nebraska, and 66-0 vs rivals Purdue in the Old Oaken Bucket game at Bloomington in the 2025 RS finale. North Texas’s biggest loss last season came to South Florida at home (63-36).

🏈NCAA College Football Saturday Pick: Indiana wins by over 41.5 points, No 56¢

There are some other great matchups on the NCAAF Week 1 schedule on Saturday, including Boise State at #2 Oregon (CBS, 3:30 EDT/12:30 PDT), Clemson at LSU (ABC, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT), UNLV at Hawai’i (The CW, 10 EDT/7 PDT), and UCLA at California (ESPN, 10:30 EDT/7:30 PDT).

In the UCLA vs California market at Kalshi, Big Ten side UCLA are the slight favorites (51%) over former Pac-12 school and now ACC side California (49%), who has a good QB in Jaron-Keawe Sagapoulutele (3,754 passing yards, 18 TD, 9 INT) who may be playing on Sundays in the future.

Cal went 2-6 ATS in its L8 to end the season while UCLA was 1-5 ATS in its L6, covering only against rivals USC, catching 21.5 in a 19-point loss in LA (29-10) on November 29. This game will be played at California Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf) in Strawberry Canyon, beautiful Berkeley.

🚦Trading Thoughts: Former Pac-12 mini-rivals Cal and UCLA will look to improve this season, but whoever loses here will overanalyze despite this being a non-conference contest and the lidlifter on a new season. Both have good QBs in JKS (Cal) and Nico Iamaleva (UCLA), but struggle scoring.

The Bruins (18.2 PPG, #127) scored just 61 points over their last 5 games (all losses), despite facing some of the toughest competition a schedule can offer (IND, NEB, OSU, WASH, USC). The Bears (25.3 PPG, #94). Both were even vs. Totals in 2025 (UCLA: 6-6-0, O/U/Push; Cal: 6-6-1).

Looking at the Cal-UCLA rivalry (UCLA 53%-47% Kalshi), the Bruins lead 57-35-1, and the Bruins are 4-2 in the last 6 meetings (all when still in the Pac-12 Conference)—winning both meetings in Berkeley (2018, 2022)—in games averaging 48.8 PPG (44-46-44-56-63-40).

🏈NCAA College Football Saturday Pick: California-UCLA Under 53.5u -109 (FanDuel)

On Sunday, the 13th race of the 2026 Formula One World Championship season, the 2026 Italian Grand Prix, will be held at Autodromo Nazionale de Monza in Monza, Italy, as Lando Norris looks to make it three straight victories on the circuit (Apple TV, 9 a.m. EDT/8 CDT/6 PDT).

In the Italian Grand Prix Main Race Winner? market at Kalshi, Lando Norris (33%) was the favorite of ‘Yes’ traders, followed by George Russell (28%), Lewis Hamilton (12%), Charles Leclerc (13%), Andrea Kimi Antonelli (9%), legend Max Verstappen (6%), and Oscar Piastri (5%).

🚦Trading Thoughts: Verstappen won here last year at The Temple of Speed in Monza with McLaren-Mercedes teammates Norris (2nd place) and Piastri (3rd place also on the podium. With his back-to-back wins, Norris (159 points) has climbed into 4th place in the F1 Drivers’ Standings.

So can he win here? Traders had never made Norris the favorite this season until he won in Hungary and the Netherlands, so the value in backing Norris (‘Yes’) again seems diluted. But he just missed last year—despite being 19 seconds behind Verstappen—and is the hot F1 driver now.

🏁2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix Main Race Winner Pick: Lando Norris, Yes, 33¢​

There’s a great fixture on the English Premier League schedule this weekend when defending champions Arsenal (2-0-0) welcome rivals Chelsea (2-0-0) across town to the Emirates Stadium (GrassMaster) in North London, England on Sunday (USA Network, Telemundo, 11:30 ET/8:30 PT).

At Kalshi in the Arsenal vs Chelsea, GK David Raya and Arsenal (57%) were the trader’s favorite, with host Chelsea trading at 20% and a Draw at 25% in extremely heavy trading volume ($215,268) on September 2. The Total (Goals scored) was trading at 2.5 (Yes 51¢, No 44¢).

The Blues and new manager Xabi Alonso have had such fear at the GK position with Robert Sánchez that Chelsea are looking at signing Aston Villa and Argentinian vet Emiliano Martínez to possibly come to Stamford Bridge to help a club that finished in 10th place in the EPL in 2025-26.

🚦Trading Thoughts: The Gunners are an unbeaten 4-1-0 in the last 5 series meetings (W-D-L), outscoring Chelsea 8-4 in the process. In a larger recent sample size, Arsenal is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings (+10 GD), with the Gunners 4-0-0 (11 GF-2 GA) vs CFC at home in EPL play.

Even with a new manager (Alonso) and a bunch of new toys (Rogers, Henderson, Welbeck, Lacroix) and some solid players (João Pedro, Cole Palmer, Moses Caicedo), this match is at the Emirates and Burkina Saka, Kai Havertz and the Gunners haven’t been losing to anyone, anywhere of late.

With Martínez, Chelsea should be a much better club in the long run, but the Blues have so many new parts, including the manager while Arsenal simply concentrates on playing elite defense and on allowing the opponent the fewest quality shots on target per match. It’s simple. Defense wins.

⚽EPL Week 2 Sunday Picks: Arsenal, Yes 57¢, Over 2.5. Yes, 55¢, Both Teams To Score, Yes 55¢

NCAA Week 1 is so good—the last Sunday with no NFL until March—that we have three games (and one Monday), including the Apple Cup between Washington and #17 Washington State (4 ET) and Wisconsin vs #4 ND at Lambeau Field in Green Bay (7:30 EDT) in an NBC doubleheader.

The cherry on top is the last rotation game, #24 Louisville vs #9 Ole Miss at Nissan Stadium (Matrix Helix Turf) in Nashville, Tennessee (ABC, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT), as we see two games being played in NFL stadiums (Packers, Titans) on Sunday night and on old school networks (NBC, ABC).

This game from Opryland is dubbed the Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff. On prediction market Kalshi, the SEC side and host Ole Miss are the favorites (71%) over ACC school Louisville (29%).

🚦Trading Thoughts: Despite seeing HC Lane Kiffin leave (LSU), the Rebels have one of the best QBs (Chambliss) and one of the best RBs (Lacy), so another trip to the CFP may be anticipated, but as we looked at the CFB kickoff edition of The Prediction Report, the Ole Miss schedule is brutal.

A loss here would be tough, but Louisville is very capable of beating this team at this neutral site where the majority of the fans may be pulling for the perceived underdogs. But Cards QB Miller Moss (Bears) and WRs Chris Bell (Dolphins) and Caullin Lacy (Jets) are now in the NFL.

That means RB Isaac Brown (884 rushing yards, 7 TD, 8.8 YPC) and Ohio State transfer and QB Lincoln Kienholz will need to step up, as will the Cardinals defense (21.2 PPG, #38), especially facing equally talented defensive teams like Ole Miss (21.7 PPG, #37).

This is the second meeting ever between these two, with Mississippi winning 43-24 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on September 6, 2021, as Ole Miss had 569 total yards. With two solid D’s, the neutral site, and offseason rust, this one could have trouble reaching 57 points.

🏈2027 NCAAF Week 1 Totals Pick: Ole Miss-Louisville Over 56.5 points scored, No 56¢

The last game on the jumbo-sized NCAA Week 1 schedule sees #19 SMU knocking helmets with Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium (419 Tifway Bermuda Grass) in the ACC and season lidlifter for both schools in Tallahassee, Florida on Monday night (ESPN, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT).

At prediction market Kalash in the SMU vs Florida State winner market on August 28, traders had SMU as solid (60%) over Florida State (40%) for this clash at The House That Bobby (Bowden) Built,” where you can find Dippin’ Dots in Section 107 if you need a sugar high.

SMU is 4-1 in its last 5 games, including impressive wins over Miami, Arizona, and Louisville, while the Seminoles went 2-3 in their last 5 games last season, losing to rivals Florida by 19 (40-21) at the Swamp and showing just how much this school’s football program has fallen off in recent years.

🚦Trading Thoughts: The Mustangs get ignored when we think about the best DI programs, but SMU is the real deal. Starting QB Kevin Jennings is in his final year of eligibility, and despite losing some cats to the NFL (Hudson—Cowboys) and NIL (Johnson, Jr—CLEM), the Ponies have horses.

WR Yamir Knight (53 receptions, 637 yards, 5 TD, 11.8 YPC) is back on campus, and SMU added TEs Randy Pittman Jr. (FSU) and Theo Melin Ohstrom (A&M), and WR Yannick Smith (ECU) to help Jennings (3,641 passing yards, 26 TD, 13 INT) and an offense that was decent in 2025 (32.2 #36).

The defense (20.1 PPG, T-#31) is the real story for SMU. FSU was solid against the rush (218.7 PPG, #11) and the pass (253.4 YPG) and allowed 22.0 PPG (#43) while going 5-7 after a 2-0 start. The Seminoles hosted New Mexico State at the Doak in Week 0, where there was no wind chill.

🏈2027 NCAAF Week 1 Monday Night Winner Pick: SMU, Yes 62¢

➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we will look at the kickoff of the 2026 NFL season, Kalshi’s study on the most calibrated markets, Oracle among those on the weekly Earnings Report, and also dish out previews for the Seahawks-Patriots opener and both the AFC and NFC divisional winner markets.”