For the next six months, American football will crawl back up to that throne as the #1 game around, with prediction markets, sportsbooks, casinos, fans, traders and bettors, players, coaches, staff, media, and all of the other people who make or spend money on the sport are reenergized.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup was as good as it gets, and Soccer is the biggest sport on Mother Earth, but American Football—the NCAAF and the NFL—are the heart and soul, and the majority of the volume. And New Year’s Day comes Saturday with Week 0. Say goodbye to the wife until March.

After TCU and North Carolina mess up the grass at the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Dublin, Ireland (preview below), we’ll see seven other DI games on Saturday, including Virginia hosting NC State at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia (ESPN, 3:30 EDT/12:30 PDT).

Also banging helmets in Week 0, San José State at USC (NBC, 3 ET/2 CT/12 PT), Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan (ESPN+, 6:30 ET/3:30 PT), Hawai’i at Stanford (ACN, 7 ET/4 PT), New Mexico State at Florida State (CW, 7 ET/6 CT/4 PT), and Memphis at UNLV (FOX, 10 ET/9 CT/7 PT).

💡Trading Thoughts: With QB Jayden Maiava back and RBs King Miller and Waymond Jordan, USC will light up the scoreboard. The Trojans scored 132 points in their last two openers and are 6-0 SU lifetime vs. SJSU, winning 56-28 in the last meeting (2023) but failing to cover ATS (-30.5).

Here, the number is massive but accurate (-38.5), with USC likely to have 6-7 TDs and a FG (45-52), and SJSU ending with 10 points. Too close to the spread and total. NC State has beaten Virginia 4 straight (6-1 L7) and gone 3-1 ATS vs. the Cavs, so let’s suggest the underdog Wolf Pack.

🏈 NCAAF Week 0 Against the Spread (ATS) Picks: USC -38.5, North Carolina State +4.5

Indiana made history in January, capturing the university’s first national championship in football by defeating Miami in the 2026 CFP Championship Game, as the Big Ten Conference won the DI title for the third time in the last three seasons (IU, Ohio State, Michigan).

At Polymarket in the NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion market, AP poll #1 Ohio State is tied with Notre Dame at 14%, with Oregon (13%), Texas (11%), defending national champions Indiana (11%), Georgia (10%), Miami (10%), LSU (6%), and Alabama (3%).

At 2% were Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and USC, with Texas Tech, 2024 champions Michigan, Mississippi, and Florida at 1% on August 26. A Power Four conference always wins the still relatively CFP National Championship. Is the dominating Big Ten poised to win another one?

💡Trading Thoughts: With the new season underway in less than 20 hours, the background cacophony of college marching bands, QBs barking out signals, referees’ whistles, and fans cheering will fill our rooms until we yell when something bad happens and scare the pets.

Cats and dogs do not understand point spreads, order books, or trading fees, but they are experts at bonding and liquidity as my litter box proves. This season will end exactly the way last season ended in my mind—with Indiana playing Miami (Florida) for all the marbles in another classic.

This means the Hoosiers and Hurricanes would have to make the 12-team CFP field and be on separate halves of the bracket to face each other again. Both lost a lot but reloaded through NIL and have the defenses and confidence needed to win a college football national championship.

Indiana welcomed TCU QB Josh Hoover to the little pink houses and small town of Bloomington, Indiana. With WRs Nick Marsh (MSU) and Charlie Becker, great O and D lines, the best Head Coach in all sports (Curt Cignetti), and a discipline rarely seen in college teams, IU will not lose.

Miami has a good QB in Darian Mensah and one of the two best skill players in DI in WR Malachi Toney, and like the Hoosiers, the Canes play ferocious D and won’t be scared of anyone on their schedule. Like IU (17%), Miami is a team that could go undefeated in the Regular Season (20%).

🏈NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion Picks: Indiana, Yes 11.1¢, Miami, Yes 10.1¢

Indiana not only won its first national championship in football last season, but the Hoosiers also had the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner in QB Fernando Mendoza, a transfer from Cal who had already graduated with a Business degree from Berkeley before taking a snap in Bloomington.

After leading IU to a historic undefeated season, Mendoza became the first player in school history to win the prestigious Heisman Trophy. And this comes as no great surprise to anyone, as Indiana has been awful in football until Saint Cignetti floated over from James Madison.

Like in the NFL where QBs usually win the MVP award, QBs also usually win the Heisman. However, this award (and trading market) is much more RB- and WR-friendly, and two-way Colorado player Travis Hunter won it two years ago when we were young, and the Strait of Hormuz was a drink.

At DraftKings Predictions in the 2026 Heisman Trophy Winner market, Texas QB Arch Manning is the traders’ favorite (15%) followed by Notre Dame QB CJ Carr (14%), Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss (13%), Miami QB Darian Mensah (13%), and Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (11%).

Oregon QB Dante Moore (11%), Alabama QB Keelon Russell (10%). Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (10%), Oklahoma QB John Mateer (9%), LSU QB Sam Leavitt (9%), USC QB Jayden Maiava (9%), Miami WR Malachi Toney (8%), and Indiana QB Josh Hoover (8%) all followed on August 26.

A&M QB Marcel Reed (7%), SC QB LaNoris Sellers (5%), GA QB Gunner Stockton (5%), Auburn QB Byrum Brown (4%), Mizzou RB Ahmad Hardy (4%), Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (4%), Penn State QB Rocco Becht (4%), and Washington RB Demond Williams (4%) are the longshots.

💡Trading Thoughts: There are four or five guys I feel can win the Heisman Trophy, and most of them come from Miami or Indiana, my predicted 2027 CFP Championship Game combatants in a rematch of last year’s instant classic with the Hurricanes probably winning this time around.

TCU transfer QB Josh Hoover will light up the scoresheet for Indiana as the Hoosiers don’t mind running scores up, and he’ll have some great skill guys in the aforementioned Marsh and Becker and transfer RB Turbo Richard (BC), RB Khobie Martin, and transfer TE Brock Schott (Miami).

Miami’s Mensah and Toney may split Heisman votes while Ole Miss QB Chambliss is a stud, but the Rebels schedule is like a Nightmare On All American Drive as we write about below. Ohio State has had some great WRs, and Smith is as good as they get and is NCAAF’s best player.

🏈2027 NCAAF Heisman Trophy Winner Pick: Jeremiah Smith, 11%

The Mississippi Rebels (13-2) had one of their most memorable seasons in program history last year, rolling to an 11-1 regular-season record with Ole Miss’s lone loss coming at Georgia and the team making the 12-team CFP, and knocking off #11 Tulane and #3 Georgia for sweet revenge.

The Ole Miss dream ride ended against #10 Miami in the CFP Semifinal (31-27), so behind Head Coach Lane Kiffin, star QB Trinidad Chambliss, and RB Eddie Lacy, the Rebels were a score away from making it to the CFP National Championship Game and an Indiana-Ole Miss fever dream.

But that was then, and this is now. Much has happened with the Ole Miss program: Kiffin left to take the job at LSU, Chambliss won a legal case to play for a 6th year of eligibility in Oxford, and a temporary restraining order may allow some Ole Miss players to rejoin this loaded team.

On paper, this all looks great for the Rebels. Then you look at their 2026 schedule. The SEC is always hard, but Ole Miss will be in the fire from Week 1 until Week 13 and the Egg Bowl vs. in-state rivals Mississippi State on the Friday after Thanksgiving (ABC, 12 ET/11 CT/9 PT).

Let’s look at the NCAA Football: Team Win Totals Ole Miss 7.5 and make a case why buying the ‘No’ now at 41¢ seems to make so much sense. The strange irony here is that Chambliss and Lacy are among the best QBs and RBs in NCAAF, and both may be taken high in the 2027 NFL Draft.

💡Trading Thoughts: Math and simple deduction are nice traits to use in life, and that’s why the Ole Miss 7.5 seems priced a bit high, at least by 1 game (Win). Next week, #9 Ole Miss opens with #24 Louisville (ABC, 7:30 ET/4:30 PT; MISS -6.5, 55.5), and the Cards can rush at the neutral site.

Week 2 vs. Charlotte at home in the home opener will be a win, but the next two weeks will be hell and a reminder of why the SEC is still a beast. Kiffin returns to town with LSU (September 19) followed by a trip to The Swamp to face Florida (September 26). Ole Miss could be 2-2 or 1-3 here.

After a bye week, Mississippi is at Vanderbilt next (October 10), then faces very good #25 Missouri (October 17), #5 Texas (October 24), and Auburn (October 31). A 3-5 record at this point? November is also nasty with #3 Georgia, #10 Oklahoma, and hated rivals Mississippi State.

So wins vs. Charlotte and Wofford seem certain, and Ole Miss can beat Louisville, Vanderbilt, and MSU to get to 5 (wins), but even as good as this team is on offense and defense, beating LSU, Florida, Missouri, Texas in Austin, Auburn, Georgia, and Oklahoma seems unlikely. That’s 5-7.

🏈 NCAA Football: Team Win Totals Ole Miss 7.5+ Wins: No 41¢

Both popular prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, have a decent number of markets open for trading on the upcoming Primetime Emmy Awards from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California, on Monday, September 14, 2026 (NBC, Peacock, 8 EDT/7 CDT/5 PDT).

At Kalshi in the Emmy Winner: Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series market, Pluribus director Vince Gilligan (55%, Yes 55c, No 46c) was the traders’ top choice of the Emmy nominees in relatively low trading volume ($30,568) with Noah Wyle from The Pitt (36%, Yes 37c, No 69c).

The hour director longshots were Saul Metzstein from Slow Horses (4%), Salli Richardson Whitfield from The Gilded Age (<1%), Hanelle M. Culpepper from Paradise (<1%), and Salli Richardson Whitfield—again—from Task (2%). So she will lose twice on September 14.

💡Trading Thoughts: The Television Academy honored Slow Horses (AppleTV+) director Adam Randall in this category a year ago for the episode “Hello Goodbye.” Slow Horses has a nominee again in this category (Metzstein), but trading suggests he probably has no chance.

Gilligan's résumé is a vivrant thing, with cultural game-changers in The X-Files, Breaking Bad, and Better Call Saul. The 4-time primetime Emmy Award winner and 59-year-old native of Richmond, Virginia should make it five next month for his work on Pluribus.​ Vince Gilligan is a genius.

🗽Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series Winner Pick: Vince Gilligan, Yes, 55¢​

The NFL is the monster market in the US, and the monster is back next week for the next seven months, so expect prediction market numbers to pick up again after a small lull and a very respectable Summer with the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Rushing the football used to be the primary method NFL offenses used to get first downs and move the ball up the field, with players like Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, and Barry Sanders all starred on the stage and put up huge numbers behind solid lines.

Now, passing is the preferred method of transport—as contracts reveal—and QBs, WRs, and even TEs are seen as the stars on offense, with RBs having short lifespans in the NFL and realizing the massive difference between playing NCAAF and the NFL. In one, a bear hits you. In the other, a car.

At Kalshi in the 2026 NFL Rushing Yards Leader exchange, Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs (23%) was the choice of the early NFL traders, followed by the Ravens Derrick Henry (14%), the Colts Jonathan Taylor (14%), and Raiders second-year man and Boise State product Ashton Jeanty (11%).

Eagles Saquon Barkley (10%), KC new RB/SB MVP Kenneth Walker (9%), Dolphins De’Von Achane (9%), Bills James Cook (9%), Falcons Bijan Robinson (7%), Chargers Omarion Hampton (7%), 49ers Christian McCaffrey (3%), Rams Kyren Williams (2%), and Bears David Montgomery (2%) followed.

💡Trading Thoughts: Not all markets are equal in liquidity, entertainment value, duration, or the number of potential winners when they open, and this market gets an A+ for being everything. Try predicting this, or watch the rushing leader(s) change over 17 weeks.

This is a great market for the potential and perceived longshots as well. Injuries, age, athleticism, and even luck all play into who ends up with the most Rushing Yards in the NFL in a given season. The one thing that stands out looking at all these names is how many have a legitimate chance.

Last year, Cook III (1,621 yards) led, followed closely by Henry (1,595), Taylor (1,585), and Robinson (1,478). Achane (1,350), the Rams' Kyren Williams (1,252), Gibbs (1,223), 49ers veteran Christian McCaffrey (1,202), and Cowboys newcomer Javonte Williams (1,201).

Among the handful who could win this year are traders’ favorite Gibbs, Taylor, Robinson, and Williams. The Lions and Rams are more pass-oriented, while Indianapolis will again need a strong rush this upcoming 2026-27 NFL Regular Season with no real star QB (Daniel “Indiana” Jones).

🏈2027 NFL Rushing Yards Leader Picks: Jonathan Taylor, Yes 13¢, Kyren Williams, Yes 3¢

The biggest rivalry in US pro sports resumes this weekend when the Boston Red Sox (73-59, 39-27 Road) face the New York Yankees (74-57, 33-29 at Home) in a 4-game AL East series played Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at Yankee Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) in The Bronx (NESN, MLB.tv).

Boston leads the season series, 5-4, winning the last 4 straight with a sweep at Fenway Park (June 25-28), where the Carmines outscored the Bronx Bombers, 21-9, as the Red Sox shocked the world going on an historic run to get back into the 2026 AL Playoff race and save the season.

The scheduled starters for G1 on Friday, August 28 are LHP Patrick Sandoval (1-2, 4.54 ERA) for Boston and RHP Cam Schlittler (11-6, 2.16 ERA) for New York, with LHP Jake Bennett (8-6, 3.49 ERA) scheduled for Boston in the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader, while the Yankees starter remains TBD.

That will be the opening game of a DH on Saturday in The Big Apple, with the first pitch of the nightcap scheduled (TBD-Suarez) for 7:15 EDT/4:15 PDT (FOX, MLB.tv) with Game 4 of the important series between two teams looking up at Tampa Bay on Sunday, August 30 (NESN).

💡Trading Thoughts: What stands out primarily from a sports betting or prediction market here isn’t either side, but the tendency to play lower-scoring games despite having two of the smallest dimension ballparks—Fenway Park #1 at 302 feet porch, Yankee Stadium #3, 320 feet—in MLB.

Without injured star slugger Aaron Judge, the Yankees have been pathetic at the plate, and the Under (Total Runs) was a profitable 71-52-3 as of August 20 with NY playing 10 under in 13 games in the heat and the middle of the summer. Again, the AL looks way worse than the NL this season.

⚾MLB Red Sox-Yankees 2026 Series Totals Trend: Under 6-2-1, average only 6.67 RPG

The 2026-27 NCAA DI College Football season and Week Zero play kick off this week when the Big 12’s TCU meets the ACC’s North Carolina in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic at Aviva Stadium (English Ryegrass) in Dublin, Ireland on Saturday (ESPN, 12 EDT/11 CDT/9 PDT)

Head Coach Bill Belichick starts his second season with the Tar Heels after a disappointing debut in Chapel Hill. These two teams played in the 2025 opener for both at Kenan Memorial Stadium with the Horned Frogs croaking host NC, 48-14, in Uncle Bill’s first game on the sidelines.

At Kalshi, designated home team TCU is a 63% favorite over North Carolina (37%), with the Point Spread at the popular prediction market at 7.5 and the Total (Points) at 47.5. Reminder: TCU scored 48 points against the Tar Heels on the road last year, so beware Under traders.

💡Trading Thoughts: North Carolina heads in on a 3-game losing streak and losers of 6 of 8. When the Horned Frogs beat NC last season in this spot, Josh Hoover was the TCU starting QB, but he transferred to Indiana, so Harvard transfer Jaden Craig will run the offense in Fort Worth now.

Playing in Ireland will be a great memory for these two schools, and as much as NC (3-1 lifetime vs. TCU) would like to turn it around with either Texas A&M transfer Miles O’Neill or three other QBs fighting for the starting job, NC was 5-6-1 Against The Spread (ATS) last year while TCU was 7-5-0.

It took the Tar Heels (19.3 PPG in 205, #122 in DI) too much effort to score points last season, while WR Jordan Dwyer and TCU (32.7 PPG, T-#57) thrived. If behind, TCU can rally on the Emerald Isle, while a 10-point NC deficit may seem like it's carrying a 10-ton Blarney Stone.

🏈2027 Aer Lingus College Football Classic Pick: TCU -6.5, Yes 58¢

The last game on the NCAAF Week Zero schedule sees Jai’Den Thomas and UNLV welcoming J’Mond Tapp and Memphis to Allegiant Stadium (Artificial Surface) on Saturday night (FOX, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT) in a Mountain West-American Athletic Conference matchup in Paradise.

In the Memphis vs. UNLV exchange at Kalshi. UNLV is favored to win by 63% of traders, with Memphis at 37%, with the Point Spread at 4.5 (Yes 49c) on August 26, with the Total Points trading at 56.5. At DraftKings, the numbers were identical at (UNLV minus) 4.5 (down 2) and 56.5.

Memphis is given a 14% chance to win the AAC Conference behind Navy (17%) and UTSA (15%), with UNLV being given a 28% chance to win the MWC Conference by the wisdom of the collective college football masses, the favorite in this conference which lost Boise State and San Diego State.

💡Trading Thoughts: Memphis heads in on a 4-game losing streak, including to NC State in the Gasparilla Bowl, while the Rebels lost their last 2, getting blasted by Boise State on the Blue Smurf Turf in the last MWC meeting ever and losing to Ohio in the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl.

The Over in the First Half is 11-2 in the L13 Memphis games (+10.90 Units, +72% ROI) while the Over is 10-3 in the L13 UNLV games (+8.25 Units, +56% ROI). The Over is 3-1-0 in the Tigers' L4 Regular Season games—all 14 UNLV Regular Season games featured at least 48 points.

Charles Huff (SO MISS) takes over at Memphis (8-5, 4-4 in AAC; 35.5 PPG in 2025, #25), and he brought 13 players over from his Eagles roster last season to help the Memphis D (23.2 PPG). Dan Mullen (FLA) is also new, and UNLV (10-4, 6-2 MWC) averaged 34.1 PPG and allowed 28.8 PPG.

🏈NCAA College Football Saturday Night Pick: Over 55.5, Yes 54¢

Up next on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, we find the NASCAR Cup Series at Daytona Coke Zero Sugar 400 from the historic Daytona International Speedway (Asphalt) in Daytona Beach, Florida on Saturday night (TV—NBC, HBO Max, Radio—SiriusXM, MRN, 7:30 ET/4:30 PT).

Last year at Daytona in the 2025 Coke Zero Sugar 400, it was Ryan Blaney (Ford) who won for Team Penske, and he also won the Pole and led the most laps in the 160-lap, 400-mile race and the second race on the NASCAR schedule from the venue, after the famous Daytona 500.

This will be the 26th points-paying race of the NASCAR Cup Series season. Joey Logano won theCook Out 400 at Richmond, his second win in four races.

NASCAR Cup Series points leaderDenny Hamlin (41%) is still the pick in the Kalshi NASCAR Cup Series Champion trading market as we head into September, with Ryan Blaney (11%), Ty Gibbs (7%), Kyle Larson (7%), Christopher Bell (7%), Chase Briscoe (6%), and Tyler Reddick (5%).

In the Coke Zero Sugar 400, Joey Logano (8%) and Ryan Blaney (7%) are the favorites, and those were my two choices at Daytona before any markets opened. Austin Cindric (6%), Carson Hocevar (6%), William Byron (6%), Bubba Wallace (5%), and Christopher Bell (5%) all followed.

💡Trading Thoughts: Joey Logano (4%) isn’t being given much chance to win the season, but the 36-year-old Middletown, Connecticut product has been running very well, and Team Penske won here last year with Blaney, so maybe Joey and his #22 Ford Mustang Dark Horse win again?

🏁NASCAR Cup Series Coke Zero Sugar 400 Picks: Ryan Blaney, Yes 8¢, Joey Logano, Yes 8¢

The National Women's Soccer League (NWSL) is as popular as it has ever been. On Sunday, we find a matchup between the host Washington Spirit (11-4-6) and Bay FC (6-4-10) at Audi Field (Bermuda Grass) in Washington, DC (ESPN2, ESPN Deportes, 12:30 EDT/11:30 CDT/9:30 PT).

In the 2026 NWSL Champion market at Kalshi, NWSL Challenge Cup victors Gotham FC (26%) are still the traders' top choice, followed by the Washington Spirit (23%), Kansas City Current (16%), San Diego Wave FC (12%), North Carolina Courage (10%), and Utah Royals FC (8%).

💡Trading Thoughts: The Spirit have allowed only 18 goals this 2026 NWSL Regular Season behind GK Sandy MacIver (8 CS), a native of Scotland who avoided being a Loch Ness Monster casualty when she was a wee lass in the Highlands. Nessie received a red card, a suspension, and a salmon.

Looking at the last 5 meetings between these two clubs, we find complete dominance by the home girls, with Washington going a perfect 5-0-0 and outscoring Bay FC 12-3 in the process, registering 3 Clean Sheets (shutouts). This is why you read and do homework, to find this gem.

With superstar Trinity Rodman (10 goals, 5 assists)—daughter of NBA star Dennis Rodman—Sofia Cantore (5 goals), and Leicy Santos (5 goals), the Spirit get goals from many places, and with this a nationally televised affair and Washington chasing Gotham FC, expect a 2-0 or a 3-0 home victory.

⚽NWSL Sunday Picks: Washington Spirit, Yes 65¢, Washington To Win to Nil, Yes 63¢

The English Premier League sees upstart Aston Villa (0-0-1) welcoming defending champs Arsenal (1-0-0) to Trinity Road and Villa Park (Desso Grassmaster) in Aston, Birmingham, England on Monday in the last game on the Matchweek 2 slate (USA Network, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).

At Kalshi, in Aston Villa vs Arsenal, Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka, GK David Raya, and Arsenal (65%) were the 'traders' favorites, with host Aston Villa trading at 14% and a Draw at 33% in extremely early trading. The Total (Goals scored) was trading at 2.5 (Yes 53¢, No 48¢).

💡Trading Thoughts: Aston Villa lost talent this Summer with the departures of Morgan Rogers (CFC) and Youri Tielemans (MUFC), and maybe vet GK Emiliano Martínez, with Zion Suzuki now in. The two teams are both 2-2-1 in the last 5 meetings (ARS 9-AV 7), and the BTTS ‘Yes’ Prop is 3-0 in the L3.

Arsenal is 89-46-72 (W-D-L) in 207 meetings lifetime. The Gunners are the side to back here for several reasons, including Villa losing so much, this being just the second game of the new campaign, and the D-minded Gunners simply not allowing many quality scoring chances.

⚽EPL Matchweek 2 Monday Picks: Arsenal, Yes 65¢, Under 2.5. Yes, 53¢

➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the last major of the Tennis season, the 2026 U.S. Open, Washington state blocking Kalshi, the Top Song on Spotify in 2026, NFL Receiving Yards Leaders, the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year award winner, along with previews for the Brewers-Cubs at Wrigley Field in MLB and Oklahoma vs. Michigan in the Big House in NCAAF. Enjoy.”