Argentina, Spain Meeting in FIFA World Cup Final
FIFA’s two ranked teams, Argentina and Spain, play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in East Rutherford, NJ on Sunday (FOX, Telemundo, 3 ET/2 CT/12 PT), as La Albiceleste look to win back-to-back World Cups—the first since Brazil (1958, 1962).
Argentina (19 GF-7 GA) is 7-0-0 in this WC, going 3-0-0 in Group Stage play (8 GF-1 GA) and 4-0-0 in the KO Stage, eliminating upstart Cape Verde in AET in a classic (3-2), rallying from 2-0 down to beat Egypt (3-2), topping Switzerland in AET (3-1), and eliminating England in the Semifinal (2-1).
Spain (13 GF-1 GA) is 6-1-0 in the WC, going 2-1-0 in Group H (5 GF-0 GA) before beating Austria (3-0), Portugal (1-0), Belgium (2-1), and France (2-0). Spain GK Unai Simón (6 CS) has been great and may win the Golden Glove Award (85%). Spain is unbeaten in its last 37 matches (28-9-0).
At Kalshi in the Spain vs Argentina winner—where there was already $1.2 billion in volume just seven hours after La Albiceleste beat England—Spain was at 57% to Argentina’s 43%. In the Spain vs. Argentina Regulation Time market, Spain was at 44%, Argentina at 26%, and a tie after 90 minutes at 30%.
➤Trading Thoughts: We find a CONMEBOL-UEFA confederation clash between Lionel Messi’s FIFA No. 1 and defending World Cup champions Argentina (1970.37) and No. 2 Spain (1965.61), a team that has allowed just one goal throughout the WC and disposed of mighty France, Belgium, and Portugal.
Will there be long spells of nothingness in Jersey? Of course. But can La Roja unlock Emíliano Martinez and La Albiceleste backline? Sí, señor. In the last five Argentina matches, the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) ‘Yes’ is a profitable 5-0, but Spain has shut out every opponent but one in the World Cup.
On an emotional level, Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, and Enzo Fernández will push harder as this may be Messi’s last World Cup match ever, while Spain (along with Portugal and Morocco) will serve as one of the three hosts for the 2030 FIFA World Cup and has been defensively elite here.
A mind-boggling 9 of the last 10 goals by Argentina have been scored after the 79-minute mark (92’ 111’ {og}, 79’, 83’, 90’+3 ’, 112 ’, 120’+1’, 85’, 90’), but don’t expect the champs to start so late in a Final. Both should score once, maybe twice. We may need AET or PKs to crown the world champs.
⚽FIFA World Cup Final Picks: Over 0.5 Goals 1st Half, Yes 63¢, Over 0.5 Goals 2nd Half, Yes 74¢, Both Teams To Score, Yes, 52¢
2026 FIFA World Cup Final Props Markets
There are a number of prop markets open around the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final at major prediction markets, including Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, and DraftKings Predictions, as expected for the quadrennial Super Bowl of Soccer.
And with two teams from different continents, the two highest-ranked teams by FIFA, sport superstars Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal, and the only two governing bodies that have ever won a WC—UEFA and CONMEBOL—the volume will be huge in these ancillary markets for the big match.
And not all props will involve what happens on the pitch, including the ‘President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?’ which was trading at 93% four days out ($566,196 volume on July 15).
Another World Cup Final props market which may be too late to bet into is the ‘World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken?’ where the ‘Yes’ was trading at 2% on July 15. The current record is 90 seconds, set by Johan Neeskens of the Netherlands against West Germany in 1974.
➤Trading Thoughts: Two nations who believed they could win the World Cup meet in the Meadowlands in what should be a classic and a high-scoring game with players like living legend Messi, Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Ferran Torres, and Mikel Merino there.
Looking at some of the Player Props may be wise for this Final in what has been a memorable tournament, including Messi 1+ Goals (36¢) and Oyarzabal 1+ Goals (31¢). Messi has 8 goals and can win the Golden Boot and take PKs, while Oyarzabal has 5 goals and is 53-for-59 lifetime on PKs, last missing in January.
⚽FIFA World Cup Final Props Goal Scoring Picks: Lionel Messi 1+ Goals, Yes 36¢, Mikel Oyarzabal 1+ Goals, Yes 34¢
Time magazine called this startup that's backed by Elon Musk (click here to get the name)…
"The Most Disruptive Company in the World…"
And said that it "holds the keys to perhaps the most powerful technology of all time."
No wonder its CEO is projecting growth of up to 8,000% for this year.
It just filed the paperwork to go public in what's set to be the next hot IPO on Wall Street. But you do NOT have to wait until the IPO.
Click here and Jeff Brown will show you how to claim your pre-IPO stake for as little as $50.
England, France in WC Bronze Final on Saturday
The match for third place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup will see Kylian Mbappé and France and Harry Kane and England playing at Hard Rock Stadium (Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass) in Miami Gardens, Florida on Saturday afternoon (FOX, FOX One, Telemundo, 5 ET/4 CT/3/MT/2 PT).
France was eliminated by Spain in the first Semifinal, while England’s dream run came to an end when Argentina bounced the Three Lions late in the second Semifinal, setting up this fun showdown in Match 103 of the 104-match tournament, which may be expanded even more in 2030.
At Kalshi in the Bronze Final market, Mbappé (8 goals) and France were trading at 62%, while Harry Kane (6 goals) and Jude Bellingham (6 goals) and England were at 38%. In the Regulation Time, 3-way market, France was at 50%, England was at 26%, with a Tie score after 90 minutes also at 26%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Unlike the Final or the Knockout Stage, losing here isn’t the end of the world for either of these UEFA heavyweights, ranked #3 and #4 by FIFA and making up a final four of the top four nations on the planet. Big respect to La Albiceleste, La Roja, Les Bleus, and the Three Lions.
Looking at the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) ‘Yes’ (69¢, Kalshi) for this Saturday Shinkick in the Sunshine State seems smart. And with Mbappé, Kane, Bellingham, and even Ousmane Dembélé (5 goals) theoretically in the running for the Golden Boot award, we should see at least 4 goals scored.
⚽FIFA World Cup Third Place Game Props Picks: Both Teams To Score, Yes, 69¢, Over 3.5 Goals. Yes 44¢
ADI Predictstreet Off to a Not-So-Great Start
The “official prediction market partner” of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, ADI Predictstreet, is coming under scrutiny after the Wall Street Journal reported last weekend that the firm enticed traders with a ticket giveaway for the World Cup, only to fail to send the tickets in the promotion.
Like many prediction markets, ADI Predictstreet lets users trade on sports, culture, real-world news, and other categories, and the World Cup was set to be the perfect vehicle and branding opportunity for the startup, but the WSJ report said the firm has “lagged far behind” so far.
Owned by Abu Dhabi’s royal family, the PM was unknown until it struck a deal with FIFA to be the official prediction market for these games, but it seems this was more of a blind money grab by FIFA, not knowing ADI Predictstreet was so disorganized and not in a position to offer fair trading.
The deal was struck in April. The World Cup started in June. That is why we saw the regulated blockchain-based ADI Predictstreet ads on the boards during this tournament in North America, held in the United States, Canada, and Mexico this past month. Money before anything.
The story covered complaints from users about “bugs that prevented them from withdrawing funds” and small trading volumes, before others started saying they never received their World Cup tickets from ADI Predictstreet’s “giveaway,” which gave absolutely nothing away but hype and hot air.
While Polymarket was, and still is, hosting the market that has seen more volume than any other in prediction market history—the 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner—with $4.2 billion in volume, and Kalshi had $1.2 billion (July 13), ADI Predicstreet had just $2 million of volume as of July 11.
The prediction market is geo-blocked from operating in the US, but users in the country can access the “World Cup Hub”—co-branded with Fanatics Markets—which operates legally in 24 US states and four territories (American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands).
Emmys 2026: Outstanding Variety Series Winner
The Primetime Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Monday, September 14, 2026, from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California (NBC, Peacock, 8 ET/7 CT/5 PT) with Mariska Hartigay hosting the 78th night honoring the best of the best in TV. Here are the 2026 Emmy nominees.
At Polymarket, traders can get involved in almost all categories that will announce winners in Hollywood that night, including the popular ‘Emmys 2026: Outstanding Variety Series’ where HBO’s “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” (44%) led less than two months out from the show.
Following in trading order on July 16 at Polymarket were ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live” (31%), CBS’s now-gone “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” (15%), NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” (10%), and Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” (3%) with funny man and NY Knicks superfan Jon Stewart.
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year at the 77th Primetime Emmys in Lalaland, the Television Academy awarded Last Week Tonight With John Oliver the Emmy in this category, and with the cutting-edge kind of 60 Minutes meets The Daily Show style, Oliver definitely deserves to be the favorite again.
Sentiment voters will lean to The Late Show with Stephen Colbert after the show created by David Letterman had such a sad and seemingly unfair ending is understandable, but remember last year the academy awarded the show with the Outstanding Talk Series Emmy, something we may see again.
No one has been a bigger opponent of the Trump administration than Jimmy Kimmel, but after being bounced off the air by proclamation of King Trump via his minion at ABC, Brendan Carr, Kimmel had a burp and is currently enjoying a well-deserved Summer vacation, fishing.
🗽Outstanding Variety Series Emmy Winner Pick: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, Yes, 45¢
Emmys 2026: Outstanding Variety Special (Live)
Culture and Entertainment traders can also bet on the ‘Emmys 2026: Outstanding Variety Special (Live)’ where “The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny” (84%) is well ahead of the other competition in the awards category and looking like the winner in this market.
The major awards shows all follow in trading order with The Oscars (5%), The Golden Globes (2%), The Tonys (1%), and The Grammys (<1%). Critics panned this year’s Golden Globes after co-hosts Kevin Frazier and Marc Malkin tripped over their words and delivered poor jokes.
Last year, the tremendous and long-anticipated Saturday Night Live 50th Anniversary Special took home the Emmy in this category after an amazing 3 hours of live TV featuring so many SNL alumni and a musical performance by living legend and The Beatles member Paul McCartney.
➤Trading Thoughts: This is one of those markets where if you are late to the party, it may be too late to invest in ‘Yes’ contracts for the Reggaeton favorite. We can toss out the bottom three, meaning this is a matter of whether The Oscars somehow overtake the Latin Trap star’s show? No.
🗽Outstanding Variety Special (Live) Emmy Winner Pick: Bad Bunny SB LX Halftime Show, Yes, 84¢
NCAA College Football: 2027 National Champion
It won’t be long until the 2026 NCAA College Football season kicks off, with eight “Week Zero” games starting on Saturday, August 29, including the first game of the season, with #9 TCU facing North Carolina at Aviva Stadium (English Ryegrass) in Dublin, Ireland (ESPN, 12 ET/11 CT/9 PT).
Week 1 begins on Thursday, September 3 with 11 games, including Colorado at Georgia Tech (ESPN, 8 ET/7 CT/5 PT) and UAB at Illinois (BTN, 9 ET/8 CT/6 PT). Last year’s champs, Indiana, open with North Texas in Bloomington on Saturday, September 5 (FOX, 12 ET/11 CT/ 9 PT).
At Polymarket, traders have been buying binary ‘Yes-No’ shares on who they think will win the national championship this season, and Notre Dame (12%), Oregon (11%), Ohio State (11%), Texas (9%), HC extraordinaire Curt Cignetti and defending champs Indiana (8%) and LSU (6%).
Following with 5% chances or less are Georgia (5%), Miami-FLA (4%), Texas A&M (3%), LSU (3%) and new Head Coach Lane Kiffin, Texas Tech (3%), Alabama (2%), Mississippi (2%), USC (5%), Michigan (2%), Oklahoma (2%), and Florida (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: With Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza—taken with the #1 pick by the LV Raiders in the 2026 NFL Draft—Indiana gave us one of the best sports stories in years, ending undefeated (16-0) and beating Miami, 27-21 in the 2026 CFP Championship Game.
Despite losing so many key players, Cignetti calmly reloaded in the transfer portal, bringing in QB John Hoover (TCU), RB Turbo Richard (Boston College), WR Nick Marsh (Michigan State), and DE Tobi Osunsanmi (KSU), so anyone expecting the Hoosiers to regress best recognize Mr. Cignetti.
Buying Indiana (‘Yes’) before the new season even kicks off at 9.0¢ gives traders a couple of nice options if all goes well. The Hoosiers have tough, but very winnable games vs Ohio State (October 17), at Michigan (October 24), vs USC (November 14), and at Washington (November 21).
This season, the 2027 CFP National Championship will be played here in Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium on January 25, 2027 (ABC, 7:30 EDT/6:30 CDT/4:30 PDT). It wouldn’t surprise me if the Hoosiers—whose last loss was December 20, 2024 vs Notre Dame—made it to this game again.
🏈NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion Pick: Indiana Yes 8.8¢
The Open Championship Winner Chances Update
We already previewed the last major of the PGA season in the last edition of The Prediction Report, which you can read here, so this serves as a revisit and an update on the numbers for the 2026 Open Championship, underway at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, UK.
The tournament teed off on Thursday, July 16, with 150 players looking to win their first major of the year and Rory McIlroy (Masters), Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open), and Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) all looking for their second and momentum and confidence heading into 2027.
At Robinhood Predictions in The Open Championship Winner (outright) market on Wednesday night (July 15) before the tournament had teed off, usual suspects American Scottie Scheffler (12¢), Irishman Rory McIlroy (7.9¢), and Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick (5.6¢) were still top trades.
➤Trading Thoughts: We already analyzed the who’s and why’s in this market, and the thought is simple: We will likely see a golfer trading at less than 5% end up winning this event—The Tournament Formerly Known As The British Open—and have spread the love between three.
Those three? Brit Tommy Fleetwood (T13, T14, T11, T11, T4) playing in his homeland, American Chris Gotterup (T11, 1, T30, T40, T27)—the John Deere Classic winner—and Wyndham Clark (T13, T5, 1, T11, 3), the winner of the U.S. Open, and ranked #8 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
⛳The Open Championship ‘Yes’: Tommy Fleetwood 5.6¢, Chris Gotterup 3¢, Wyndham Clark 2.7¢
MLS Doubleheader Kicks Around on Friday Night
There are only two matches on the 2026 MLS Regular Season schedule to be played on Friday night, an Eastern Conference showdown between Nashville SC and Atlanta United and a Western Conference Los Angeles Derby (El Tráfico) between the LA Galaxy and LAFC.
The doubleheader opens up with Cristian Espinoza (8 assists) and first-place Eastern Conference club Nashville SC (10-3-1, 31 GF-11 GA) welcoming 14th-place Atlanta United FC (3-2-9, 14 GF- 23 GA) to GEODIS Park (Grass) in Nashville, Tennessee (FOX, Apple TV, 8:10 ET/7:10 CT/5:10 PT).
The second game will see Marco Reus and the 9th-place LA Galaxy (5-5-5, 22 GF-22 GA)—as .500 as a team can be—hosting Son Heung-Min and 5th-place LAFC (7-3-5, 24 GF-17 GA) at the Dignity Health Sports Park (Bandera Bermuda Grass) in Carson (FS1, Apple TV, 10:25 EDT/7:25 PDT).
Looking at the 2026 MLS Cup Champion market at Kalshi—which was approaching the $1 million mark in total volume on July 16 ($873,137)—Nashville SC (11%) was the trader’s second favorite after legend Lionel Messi and the defending MLS champions, Inter Miami CF (29%). Got Messi?
LAFC (8%) was being given some hope by Soccer traders at the popular prediction market, but city rivals LA Galaxy (3%) and the once-mighty Atlanta United (<1%) were being given absolutely no chance to win the league, and rightfully so.
The 2026 MLS All-Star Game will be played in five days on Wednesday, July 29 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, where Messi, the Whitecaps’ Thomas Müller, and the MLS All-Stars will face Paulinho (Toluca) and the Liga MX All-Stars (Apple TV, 8 ET/7 CT/6 MT/5 PT).
➤Trading Thoughts: The LA Galaxy are 10-9-7 (W-D-L) lifetime in El Tráfico, with the two 2025 games ending in ties after the newer LAFC (Los Angeles Football Club) had gone 6-0-3 in the previous seven meetings, outscoring the Galaxy, 22-8 along the way. LAFC has never led the series.
Handicapping the final scores of the last 7 meetings, we see there have been a robust number of goals, never below 3 (LAG 2-1, LAFC 4-2, LAFC 2-1, LAFC 2-1, 2-2, 3-3), for a total of 31 goals and an average of 4.4 GPG. The Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ prop is also a perfect 7-0 over that span.
Taking Nashville SC straight or using them as a parlay (combo) leg is also advised, possibly with a team playing in the World Cup Third Place fixture on Saturday and/or the much-anticipated FIFA World Cup Final on Sunday. Combining the LAG-LAFC Over with the WC Final Over makes sense.
⚽MLS Friday Night Picks: Nashville SC 68¢, LA Galaxy-LAFC Over 2.5 Yes 54¢, LAFC-LA Galaxy Both Teams To Score Yes, 64¢
MLB Champ Dodgers at Yankees on Saturday Night
The two most popular teams in MLB, the NL’s Los Angeles Dodgers (61-36, 301-17 Road) and the AL’s New York Yankees (54-42, 23-20 Home), meet at Yankee Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) in an interleague game in the Bronx on Saturday night (FOX, MLBTV, 8:08 EDT/7:08 CDT/5:08 PDT).
These teams will have two distinctly different approaches in the Second Half of the 2026 MLB Regular Season, with the defending champions just looking to sew up one of the top two seeds in the Senior Circuit while the Bronx Bombers are looking to wake up after a Summer slump.
Still, traders at Polymarket in the MLB World Series Champion 2026 market ($35 million volume) like those two teams the most to be champions this year, with Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers (30%) and Aaron Judge and the Yankees (13%) the traders’ top two choices, the same as April.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Dodgers are 4-2 in games played at The House That Ruth Built since 2024, winning two of three in the Bronx in the 2024 World Series. Overall, Los Doyers were 10-4 vs the Yankees since 2023. NY leads the all-time series, 50-26, heading into Game 1 on Friday.
There were no starting pitchers listed for this yet, with both involved in the 2026 All-Star Break, but no matter who LA starts, they will be a stud, while the only Yankees starters who have impressed are rookie Cam Schittler (9-5, 2.05 ERA) and Will Warren (7-4, 4.03).
With the Dodgers losing 4 straight heading into the Midsummer Classic and Ben Rice and the Yankees winning 4 in a row, the hosts here should have the better mindset, but until they get Judge back (Ribs injury, expected return August 3), it’s just too hard to suggest trading money on them.
⚾MLB Saturday Night Pick: None
F1 Moët & Chandon Belgian Grand Prix on Sunday
The Moët & Chandon Belgian Grand Prix is scheduled at Spa-Francorchamps in Stavelot, Belgium on Sunday (9 am ET/8 CT/6 PT, Apple TV) in the 10th race of the 2026 Formula One World Championship season, which has seen rookie Kimi Antonelli trying to steal all the spotlight.
At Kalshi in the Belgian Grand Prix Main Race Winner? market, Andrea Kimi Antonelli (36%) was the favorite of ‘Yes’ buyers, followed by George Russell (20%), Lewis Hamilton (17%), Charles Leclerc (10%), Max Verstappen (8%), Lando Norris (4%), and last year’s winner Oscar Piastri (2%).
Antonelli won five straight races on the Formula One circuit before Lewis Hamilton (Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix), George Russell (Lenovo-Austria Grand Prix), and Charles Leclerc (Pirelli British Grand Prix) won the last three races to make the season more interesting.
➤Trading Thoughts: We’ve seen four different winners in the last four races, so this should be a fun one on the long 7.004 (4.352 miles) circuit from the country that bounced the USMNT from the World Cup two weeks ago. Belgians live in Belgium? Yep, just like Fred Flinstone lives in Bedrock.
It would be tempting to go price-shopping or try to look sexy by saying the longest underdog (Piastri) who won this race a year ago will win again, but nope. The F1 Drivers Standings will be the meat and bones of this Auto Racing micro-handicap.
Antonelli (179 points) leads the two Brits, Russell (154) and Kim Kardashian squeeze Hamilton (147 points), with Leclerc (108) needing another win to get back in the picture. Russell (+66 points) and Hamilton (+57) have surged the most over the last three races. Russell seems like the logical buy.
🏁F1 Moët & Chandon Belgian Grand Prix Trading Picks: George Russell, Yes, 20¢, Kimi Antonell, No, 65¢
NASCAR Window World 450 Peels Out on Sunday
The NASCAR Cup Series season resumes with the 2026 Window World 450 from the big oval in North Wilkesboro Speedway (Asphalt) in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina on Sunday evening under the lights (TV—TNT, HBO Max, Radio—PRN, SiriusXM, 7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT).
Point-leader Denny Hamlin (Michigan, Pocono, Nashville), Corey Heim (Naval Base Coronado in San Diego), Shane van Gisbergen (Sonoma), Chase Briscoe (Chicagoland Speedway), and Ryan Blaney (Echopark Speedway in Atlanta) won the previous seven NASCAR Cup Series races.
Kalshi Auto Racing bettors like Denny Hamlin (17%), Ryan Blaney (17%), last year’s winner Christopher Bell (15%), Kyle Larson (10%), Joey Logano (7%), Chase Elliott and Ty Gibbs (6%), Ty Reddick, William Byron, and Chase Briscoe (5%) with Bubba Wallace and Carson Hocevar at 3%.
The longer shots at Kalshi to win the race in the Tar Heel State on Sunday are Bubba Wallace (4%), Ross Chastain (4%), Brad Keselowski (3%), Carson Hocevar (3%), Alex Bowman (2%), Austin Cindric (2%), Josh Berry (2%), Ryan Preece (2%), and Daniel Suárez (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Toyotas have been winning in the NASCAR Cup Series this season, with the manufacturer winning 13 times since the Daytona 500. Last year’s winner, Christopher Bell—who finished in 2nd place in Atlanta and helped Blaney win—drives a Toyota and is my pick to win this.
Shane van Gisbergen (6th place in Atlanta, Chevrolet) has also been looking really good this Summer and is also worth a look at North Wilkesboro. Next up on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indianapolis, IN, next Sunday, July 26.
🏁NASCAR Cup Series Window World 450 Winner Picks: Christopher Bell, Yes 15¢, Shane van Gisbergen, Yes 1¢
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the 2026 FIFA World Cup setting a new volume record at Polymarket, Kalshi’s booming numbers in July, the Earnings Report calendar along with more 2026 Emmy Awards markets previews and a dissection of the Cristiano Ronaldo World Cup crying controversy.