WC Winner at Polymarket Volume Shatters Record
We talked about why Sports is king of all Categories in Volume 84 of The Prediction Report (Friday, July 10), and we see how true that distinction is and what the trading numbers show after we do a trading volume post-mortem on the two most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket, after holding the largest-traded market ever in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election ($3,686,335,059), saw its own record shattered in the 2026 World Cup Winner futures market, which saw $4,322,498,204 (and still counting) in trading volume on July 19 after Sunday's Final.
Spain defeated Argentina in AET (1-0) as La Roja allowed 0 shots on goal while racking up 12 SOG and 21 overall of their own, the game-winner coming from the left foot of sub Ferran Torres (106’). Spain enjoyed 65% of the possession in a World Cup Final that was as boring as the Halftime show.
Polymarket also set a new monthly trading volume in June, raking in $10.8 billion (international) and $3.5 billion (US platform), as the 2026 FIFA World Cup was a bonanza for prediction markets, sportsbooks, electronics salesmen, and bartenders alike.
Newbie Rothera—a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood Predictions—processed over $2 billion in its opening month (June) and, according to Bank of America, makes up an impressive 7% of the ever-changing United States prediction markets.
Will this record ever be topped? One day. Expect both the Presidential Election Winner 2028 (Polymarket, $664,321.896, July 19, 2026) and the 2030 World Cup Winner to see massive trading volume, with the $5 billion market as the next milestone.
And we can expect the usual suspects and the top four ranked teams by FIFA—Spain, Argentina, France, England—back, fueling those trading numbers, but whether or not we see Lionel Messi (who will be 43), Harry Kane (who will be 37), or David Raya (who will be 34), remains to be seen.
But five guys we won’t be seeing at the 2030 FIFA World Cup in Morocco, Portugal, and Spain are Portugal legend Cristiano Ronaldo (41), Mexico GK Guillermo Ochoa (41), Germany GK Manuel Neuer (40), Croatia AMF Luka Modrić (40), and Bosnia Herzegovina legend Edin Džeko (41).
Kalshi Also Enjoys Record Numbers in World Cup
The biggest bet on a sporting event was also very, very good for Tarek Masour, Luana Lopes Lara, and crosstown Big Apple rivals, with Kalshi seeing its first month of the now-done-and-dusted 2026 FIFA World Cup generate $31 billion in notional volume in June for the 104-match tourney.
And FIFA President Gianni Infantino is reportedly looking into increasing the number of teams in the FIFA World Cup from 48 to 64, after we just added 16 teams (and four Groups) to the quadrennial tournament and the biggest sporting event on planet Earth.
Will we see Groups M, N, O, P? Of course we will. We saw the NCAA Basketball Tournament expand from 64 to 68 teams, we saw the NBA add a Play-In Playoff Round, and we saw the NCAA DI FBS Football increase its College Football Playoff (CFP) from 4 to 12 teams back in 2024.
These expansions of the world’s biggest sporting events only mean more games, more chances to bet, more commercials sold, and more volume for prediction markets and sportsbooks. With online sports betting having blown up and prediction markets all the rage, new records will be set.
Overall, the prediction market had an amazing $50 billion in volume because of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the middle of the Summer, which is traditionally the slowest and most boring period of the calendar year for online and brick-and-mortar sportsbooks and fans.
There are two seasons in the US: “Football Season” (September-February) and “Not Football Season” (March-August). The World Cup made sure this “Not Football Season” was a healthy one for the economies in these two existing, still relatively small places where people can trade or bet on Sports.
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The CR7 World Cup Tear Controversy
The strange dream we all live in continued to be surreal as ever in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and like the Super Bowl and the Bad Bunny Halftime show, provided the requisite drama and needless silliness with the Cristiano Ronaldo Tear Controversy (Part I). There’ll be no Part II as CR7 is old.
The controversy came from the tear ducts of the Portuguese legend Ronaldo, and the end of the 1-0 loss to Iberian Peninsula rivals Spain on a late Mikel Merino goal in the now-completed quadrennial tournament. Polymarket had a market, ‘Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?’
There were many potential reasons the 41-year-old legend might cry. Portugal may have finally won its first World Cup. CR7 was also heading into the tournament, knowing it would likely be his last, and the emotion of this moment—which we saw in the loss to Spain—was the literal tearjerker.
But without some controversy, what good is wacky The Digital Age? Over $39 million was traded on ‘Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?, and it appeared he was emotional after leaving the pitch on what will likely be his last World Cup appearance, but we need tears to rule ‘Yes.”
Polymarket ruled ‘Yes’ after the game, but the whiners wanted proof of tears, so the Internet and sleuths came through. The popular prediction platform finally gave their image after making the ruling, and we will wait for the next Strangeness. There was also a CR7 cry market in the Euros.
Traders at Polymarket are giving Ronaldo—who now plays for Al-Nassr in the Saudi Pro League—just a 5% chance of announcing his retirement in 2026.
White House Teleprompter Operator Perez Busted
Kalshi continued to be in the news cycle last week, with reports surprising everyone- well, many- that the prediction market platform had flagged a teleprompter operator who worked for the White House for making suspicious trades related to the contents of President Trump’s speeches.
The man, Gabriel Perez, has worked for President Trump for 10 years and is now reportedly negotiating with the CFTC for a settlement after he made almost $100,000 on Kalshi trading on mentions markets and prepared speeches the president was making.
This is the first time that someone inside the White House has been investigated for insider trading on prediction markets. Kalshi said its surveillance systems and detection tools helped flag unusual betting patterns on Perez’s account.
In a statement, Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, said, “Our surveillance team promptly flagged and referred these trades to the CFTC, and we are cooperating and assisting regulators.”
Around $90,000 of the profits teleprompter operator Perez made from his unscrupulous mentions of market trading were frozen by Kalshi.
NPR reported that Perez—who is currently on administrative leave—was paid $175,000 a year in his role as deputy assistant to the president. On Thursday, July 16, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called his actions a “disgrace” in a presser filled with questions on the issue.
Other insiders have found trouble trading on Politics and categories they shouldn’t, including U.S. Army special forces soldier Gannon Ken van Dyke, who profited $400,000 on Polymarket on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro back in January.
And politician George Santos traded the Who Will Attend the State of the Union? market at Kalshi and claimed he would attend, only not to, then profited by betting ‘No’ on his own attendance to the event—that he controlled. Will any of these fools get into any real trouble remains to be seen.
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Some Big Court Dates Upcoming For Kalshi
As busy as it has been volume-wise at Kalshi, it’s been just as busy in the courtroom for the prediction market, with legal briefs here, there, and everywhere, with that certain air of uncertainty hanging over the space where all say the Supreme Court will ultimately rule like
A federal judge in Manhattan ruled against Kalshi on July 7, denying its injunction bid, then Kalshi immediately appealed the decision. Rinse. Repeat. On July 13, the Ninth Circuit panel asked the prediction market why sports contracts aren’t the same as gambling in a tribal lands appeal.
In a huge win for Kalshi on July 17, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) told the prediction market it didn’t have to cancel sports trades in the Wolverine State, in direct defiance of a court order from Ingham County (Michigan) Circuit Judge Rosemarie Aquilina.
Kalshi complied with the order from the judge and unwound the affected sports trades, although the volume was reportedly small. The emergency powers wielded by the CFTC hadn’t been invoked since a Cold War grain embargo by the Carter administration against the Soviet Union.
“This hasn’t happened in 46 years. And it’s an assertion of federal power in financial markets like we haven’t seen so far, by countermanding a court order,” CFTC former general counsel Robert Schwartz said. Kalshi would have had to Ggeofence in Michigan by August 12 or face a $500 fine.
On July 30, the 6th Circuit will hear oral arguments in Cincinnati, and on August 1, the felony ban on prediction markets—in what would be the first state to do so in the US—is set to take place in Minnesota. So what is already a web of various legalities and changing realities continues.
Sports contracts remained banned in Michigan, the same reality seen in Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Ohio in the East and Arizona, Nevada, and Montana in the West.
Google Reports in a Busy Earnings Report Week
The Earnings Calendar is thick again this week, with a number of companies reporting their 2Q earnings, including Tesla (TSLA), Google (GOOG), and IBM (IBM) on Wednesday.
On Monday, July 20, Wintrust (WTFC) and Domino's Pizza (DPZ) delivered their earnings, with Charles Schwab (SCHW), KeyCorp (KEY), and Hasbro (HAS) among those reporting Q2 net assets on Tuesday, July 21.
On Wednesday, July 22, Alphabet (GOOG-NASDAQ), IBM (IBM-NYSE), and Texas Instruments (TXN-NASDAQ) all reported after the close of the New York City stock market.
On Thursday, July 23, Tractor Supply (TSCO), Milwaukee motorcycle-maker Harley-Davidson (HOG), and Blackstone (BX) report before the opening bell, and on Friday, July 24, Q2 reports from Verizon Communications (VZ) and American Express (AXP) will come before the bell.
Alphabet Inc. delivers its 2026 Q2 Earnings Call on Wednesday, July 22 (4:30 ET/1:30 PT), and you can access it at the Alphabet Investor Relations webcast or the Alphabet Investor Relations YouTube page. Google is given a 97% chance of beating earnings by traders at Polymarket.
Financial analysts were projecting Alphabet Inc.'s Q2 revenue at $116.8 billion (+21% year-over-year), with the Mountain View, California, heavyweights expected to report adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $2.31.
Just How Low Will Dogecoin Go in 2026?
Meme coins are not money, yet have some strange allure for some, with the cryptocurrency seeing thousands of these things launched, either for fun, or a grift, or an ego boost, or maybe a little of all. The first meme coin ever was Dogecoin, created by software engineers as a friendly jab at crypto.
On December 6, 2013, Adobe software engineer Jackson Palmer and IBM guy Billy Markus launched the peer-to-peer digital currency Dogecoin (DOGE) in an effort to appeal to a broader demographic. And we all know people love dogs. So Dogecoin sort of blew up.
Now, instead of using it to pretend it’s a legit investment vehicle, people are now trading at what level Dogecoin will get to in 2026. On July 18, 2026, Dogecoin was trading at $0.0724. Seven cents is how much it costs the U.S. Mint to make a nickel these days, if that makes sense, pun intended.
At Robinhood, traders are betting that below $0.10 (77c) and below $0.08 (98c) are sure things, with below $0.06 (53c) the sweet spot. Those thinking Dogecoin will end the year below a nickel are in the minority, with levels below $0.04 (22c) and $0.02 (9c) seeing little trading action.
Like most memecoins, Dogecoin has had a harsh dose of reality in 2026, down 37.99% YTD on July 18 and a nasty 69.10% over the last 365 days. The 52-week high for Dogecoin was $0.31 on September 13, 2025, with the 52-week low of $0.07 just hit on June 30.
The 10-year low for Dogecoin is $0.68, achieved on May 8, 2021, when Joe Biden was president, while the decade's low point came on March 10, 2017, with Trump in the White House.
Emmys: Outstanding Reality Competition Series
We continue our look at the major categories in the upcoming Primetime Emmy Awards, honoring the best of the best in Television, hosted by Mariska Hargitay at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California, on Monday, September 14, 2026 (NBC, Peacock, 8 EDT/7 CDT/6 MDT/5 PDT).
At Polymarket, traders can bet on almost all categories in the 78th version of this awards gala, including ‘Emmys 2026: Outstanding Reality/Competition Series’ where Peacock’s popular and plucky “The Traitors” (82%) has a huge lead seven weeks away from the Hollywood awards show.
Following in the trading order on July 19 at Polymarket were CBS’s “Survivor” (16%), MTV’s “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (2%), Bravo’s “Top Chef” (<1%), and ABC’s “Dancing With the Stars” (<1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Traitors won this category at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards and also last year after RuPaul won it in 2023, so three in a row seems likely for that cool reality TV competition show filmed at Adross Castle in the Scottish Highlands and hosted by Alan Cummings.
🗽Outstanding Reality/Competition Series Emmy Winner Pick: The Traitors, Yes, 82¢
Emmys 2026: Outstanding Comedy Series
In the ‘Emmys 2026: Outstanding Comedy Series market at Polymarket in its Culture and Entertainment category, traders are strongly behind the Home Box Office (HBO) comedy “Hacks” (55%) in a market which passed the $15,000 volume mark on Sunday, July 19.
Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay (43%) was also receiving strong support with The Bear (3%), Only Murders In The Building (3%), Margo’s Got Money Problems (2%), Nobody Wants This (1%), Abbott Elementary (1%), and Shrinking (1%) all following in trading order at Polymarket.
➤Trading Thoughts: In this category last year, it was Season 1 of The Studio which took home the Emmy award after Season 3 of Hacks won in 2023, Season 1 of The Bear won in 2022 with Seasons 1 and 2 of Ted Lasso winning the award in both 2020 and 2021.
This year, it’s a race between two shows, Hacks and Widow’s Bay, and if you can pick the winner, you can still make a little profit, although the liquidity still isn’t there ($15K). Because I have seen neither of these, I will defer on making a pick, but it seems Widow’s Bay can surprise.
🗽Outstanding Comedy Series Winner Pick: None
MLB: 2026 Home Runs Leader at Polymarket
Hitting HRs is the best thing in MLB, a thing sluggers like Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Aaron Judge, and Shohei Ohtani are known for doing, although Ruth and Ohtani are also known for pitching while Bonds and McGwire are known for allegedly doing steroids.
With Judge sidelined with an injury and Ohtani (22 HR) not really trying yet, the MLB Home Run (HR) race is more wide open this year. In short, this is a great (and fun) market to get involved in before August, as more than 20 guys could win it.
The Phillies Kyle Schwarber (33 HR) led the big leagues in dingers as of July 19 and was also the leader to win at Polymarket (46%), with the Astros Yordan Alvarez (31 HR, 28%), the Rays new star Junior Caminero (29 HR, 21%), and the Athletics Shea Langeliers (22 HR, 8%).
Next up were the Yankees Ben Rice (29 HR, 4%), the Nationals James Wood (28 HR, 3%), the Athletics Nick Kurtz (20 HR, 2%), the Braves Matt Olson (26 HR, 2%), the Dodgers Shohei Ohtani (22 HR, 1%), the Pirates Brandon Lowe (21 HR, 1%), and the Yankees Aaron Judge (17 HR, 1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The field is not only lucky Judge has been out injured, but also fortunate that White Sox phenom Munetaka Murakami (20 HR) was out so long. Schwarber and Alvarez not only have the edge as the only two with 30+, but, as DHs, they use energy only at the plate while hitting.
Of the guys with 20 or more who have low (’Yes’) contract prices, NL MVP Ohtani (1¢) could go on a tear in August and September while Cardinals 2026 Home Run Derby champion Jordan Walker (22 HR, <1¢) also showed he can go deep in spurts, albeit against a batting practice pitcher.
Could Judge come back and knock buildings down like King Kong? Schwarber already has almost twice as many as the AL MVP and the big Bronx Bomber, so maybe Caminero (Yes 29.9¢) is the best buy for now with the M’s needing to make a playoff push in the AL West and him the key cog.
⚾MLB Home Run Leader ‘Yes’ Picks: Junior Caminero 30¢, Shohei Ohtani 1¢, Jordan Walker <1¢
PGA 3M Open Tees Off in the Twin Cities Thursday
After the final major of 2026, the Open Championship, the PGA Tour shifts into lower gear with the 3M Open at TPC at Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, scheduled to tee off on Thursday, July 23, and run through Sunday, July 26.
This is a relatively new stop on the PGA Tour (2019), and the par-71, 7,431-yard course in suburban Minneapolis has $8,800,000 in prize money. The event succeeds the 3M Championship, a 26-year tournament in the Land of 10,000 Lakes and Snakes on the PGA Tour Champions.
We won’t see many of the big names we see on the tour, coming on the heels of the last major of the year, The Open Championship, won by New Zealand’s Ryan Fox (-10, 270) with a birdie on the 72nd hole at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, edging out American Cameron Young (-9, 271).
Last year, it was Kurt Kitayama who won the 2025 3M Open, and we have seen a different longshot-type golfer win this tournament every year:
2025—Kurt Kitayama
2024—Jhonathan Vegas
2023—Lee Hodges
2022—Tony Finau
2021—Cameron Champ
2020—Michael Thompson
2019—Matthew Wolff
➤Trading Thoughts: This, like all Golf futures, is nearly impossible to handicap. Here, the names are less familiar, so picking an American linksman with a weird name like Jhonny Vegas or Cameron Champ may be the best (and goofiest) approach. Betting ‘No’ on all is logical, but boring.
World #1-ranked Scottie Scheffler has said he will play here,
⛳3M Open Winner ‘Yes’ Pick: Scottie Scheffler
La Velada del Año VI Knuckles Up on Saturday
Created by Twitch streamer Ibai Llanos in 2021, the recurring crossover boxing event La Velada del Año VI (The Evening of the Year) will take place at La Cartuja Stadium in Seville, Spain this Saturday, July 25 (7 pm, Spanish Peninsular Time, 1 EDT/12 CDT/10 PDT).
At the Boxing Prediction Market at Robinhood Predictions, traders can get down on the majority of the fights at this crazy content creator event. Last year’s fifth edition set a Twitch channel record, garnering some 9.3 million views, up from 3.8 million the year before.
Here are trading links at Robinhood Predictions for most of the fights for La Velada del Año VI:
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the 2026 WNBA All-Star Game and WNBA MVP winner race, Who Will Host the 2028 FIFA World Cup, and serve up previews of the F1 Hungarian Grand Prix from the Hungaroring and the NASCAR Brickyard 400 from aptly-named Speedway, India.