World Cup Down to the Final Eight on Thursday
This has been a magnificent 2026 FIFA World Cup so far, with hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States shining not only as hosts for the planet’s biggest sporting event, but also on the field where all three countries proudly made it to the Round of 16.
The Round of 16 will end today (Tuesday, July 7), with the Quarterfinals kicking off on Thursday, as Kylian Mbappé and tournament hosts France face upstart Morocco at Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts (FOX, FOX One, Telemundo, 4 ET/3 CT/1 PT).
Besides the USA, Canada, and Mexico, others who have surprised and made their countries proud by advancing to the Round of 16 included Paraguay (who beat Germany), Morocco (who beat the Netherlands), and Norway (who beat Ivory Coast), as well as lovable big man Erling Haaland.
The Confederation of African Football (CAF) sent an impressive nine teams to the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but only Egypt and Morocco came out alive, with South Africa, Ivory Coast, DR Congo, Senegal, Algeria, Ghana and David vs Goliath Cape Verde all being ousted.
On Friday, the second Quarterfinal will be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, with the two final Quarterfinal matches being contested at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, and GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, on Saturday, July 11.
The four teams that emerge from the Quarterfinals will meet in the Semifinals on July 14-15 from Arlington, Texas and Atlanta, Georgia. The match for Third Place will be played on July 18 in Miami Gardens, with the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final set for Sunday, July 19, from East Rutherford, NJ.
Polymarket WC Winner Sets New Volume Record
There were only 12 teams left in the World Cup after the Mexico-England match on Sunday, which has been an absolute delight for Soccer fans and sports bettors worldwide, with Kalshi’s volume in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner market nearing the $1 billion mark ($985,458,510 on July 5).
And the seven biggest games of the tournament—four more Quarterfinals (July 6-7), the two Semifinals (July 9-10), and the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final on Sunday, July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium (MetLife Stadium) in East Rutherford, New Jersey (3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
At Polymarket, the numbers were even more staggering, as the PM set a new all-time volume record, with the World Cup Winner market rapidly approaching $4 billion in volume, topping the previous record set in the 2024 US Presidential Election Winner market ($3,686,335,059).
The current chances given by traders at Polymarket to lift the WC trophy after Sunday’s action: France (33%), Argentina (17%), England (14%), Spain (13%), Portugal (6%), Norway (5%), Colombia (3%), our beloved USA (3%), Morocco (3%), Switzerland (1%), and Belgium (1%).
“France is incredible. When they attack, they have players that are so good. And they’re so balanced,” former USMNT Head Coach Bob Bradley said on The Herd with Colin Cowherd on Thursday. “And they’re balanced.”
➤Trading Thoughts: At under 20 cents a ‘Yes’ share (18.3¢), Argentina still has massive value, and with maestro Messi and one of the best GKs on the planet, La Albiceleste seem like one of four sides which could hang with Les Blues—just like the 2022 World Cup where the two met in the Final.
When looking at the upcoming Quarterfinals, try not to shop the contract prices assuming the remaining “big” favorites are that much better than the opponent(s). Switzerland can certainly upset Colombia on Tuesday, and Morocco is the team France didn’t want to see at this point.
⚽2026 World Cup Winner Pick: Argentina, ‘Yes’ 17.2¢, Spain ‘No’ 87.3¢
Forget what the media says about an AI bubble, and forget the market swings…
Jeff Brown says we’re on the edge of a $100 trillion boom, thanks to a breakthrough tech hidden in a dying coal town in Wyoming… it sounds crazy, until you see what he uncovered. But there may not be much time to get in on this tech before everyone catches on.
$423,000 Bet on Putin Leaving in 2026 is Placed
On July 1, NBC News reported that an unknown trader on Polymarket placed a $423,000 ‘Yes’ bet in the ‘Putin Out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?’ market as Ukraine continues to strike deep into Russian territory as the mindless Putin-inspired conflict drags on for a fourth year.
The payout will be around $2.5 million should 73-year-old Russian president Vladimir Putin actually leave the Kremlin in the next 177 days.
Over $14 million had been traded in the market as of July 1, and the collective sentiment is the exact opposite of what the anonymous trader bet on, with only 12% giving a chance that Russian president Putin will actually be out of office by 2027.
The massive wager comes in the wake of suspicions of insider trading in War and Geopolitics markets. This trader—@ZnotluvuiSamez—opened the account in May and has also bought ‘Yes’ shares on Ukraine retaking Crimea before 2027.
Stepping down from office just doesn’t seem like the kind of thing the KGB-groomed Putin would do. And his dictatorial style and ego seem to have rubbed off on US President Trump, who keeps hinting he may seek an unconstitutional third term. Have you ever eaten three straight Big Macs?
Solana Unveils New ‘World’ PM in Phantom Wallet
The “Trade Everything” tagline used by the Web3 blockchain network Solana came to fruition last week when the World prediction market was revealed online at world.xyz and in the Phantom wallet on iOS, Android, and desktops. Chainlink serves as the bridge to the outside world.
This new non-custodial prediction market uses the CASH stablecoin in Phantom, allowing winning trades to be paid out immediately. The identity of the world platform had remained hidden until a legal disclosure appeared on Twitter (X) from the Phantom account in June.
Pedro Miranda, Head of Consumer at Solana, said, “Prediction markets are one of the most powerful applications you can build on a high-performance blockchain.
“World is designed to show what Solana makes possible: real-time markets, onchain settlement, and a user experience that meets people where they are.”
Members on the World prediction market trade from their Solana wallets on-chain in the Phantom wallet, with money moving only when they enter a specific market. According to CoinDesk, users will be able to trade on the ongoing 2026 FIFA World Cup and Crypto prices.
Additional markets on other major Sports, Geopolitics, and Macroeconomics are also reportedly planned.
The 200-to-1 Gold Default Hits July 31st
Imagine an airline sold the same seat to 200 different passengers... and just prayed 199 of them wouldn't show up at the gate.
That is the exact "math glitch" currently sitting at the heart of the global gold market.
According to recent data, there are now 200 paper claims for every 1 physical ounce of gold left in the vaults.
For 55 years, the bankers got away with it…
But on July 31st, a 90-year-old law effectively "calls the bluff."
When those 200 people show up for that 1 seat, the price of the "seat" (physical gold) doesn't just go up—it teleports.
I've identified one company sitting on $431 Billion worth of metal that "fixes" this glitch for investors.
While the stock trades for a fraction of that value today, the July 31st deadline changes everything.
Croatian Soccer Star Modrić Appears in Kalshi Ad
Midfielder Luka Modrić is the most famous Soccer player to ever come out of the European nation of Croatia, and although the 40-year-old’s career on the national team likely came to an end with the Checkered Ones' loss to Portugal in the Round of 16, Modrić will live on forever in a Kalshi ad.
Launched during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the ad spot, titled “Hands,” features the Croatian legend and Kockasti captain, and is currently airing on TV in the US. The entire Modrić spot for the popular Kalshi prediction market is provided below from YouTube.
Kalshi announced a partnership with the Croatia Football Federation before the tournament started. Ballon d’Or winner Modrić started all four matches for Croatia in the World Cup, and led the team to the Knockout Stage, but he ended up with no goals, a great experience, and a Kalshi ad.
NBA Beat: LeBron James Next Team Update
We speculated earlier here that living NBA legend LeBron James would be staying put in Los Angeles and playing with the Lakers this coming season, but King James has other plans and announced he would be leaving the franchise and plying his trade elsewhere. But where?
"LeBron James is one of the greatest athletes in history. We will always be thankful for his eight years with the Lakers—including the title he led us to in 2020 under the toughest imaginable circumstances and the countless records he broke in purple and gold," Jeanie Buss said in a statement.
"We wish him all the best in the future, both on the court and off. He will always be a cherished part of the Lakers family,” the Lakers governor and long-time mother of the franchise, her father Dr Jerry Buss bought on May 29, 1979. The team is now owned by TWG Global CEO Mark Walter.
This is what makes prediction markets great. Especially if LBJ isn’t still actually sure where he will be going himself. There have been a number of NBA teams linked to signing James. His old team, the Cleveland Cavaliers (55%), led the traders’ choices on the Fifth of July, the Fourth’s brother.
Following in pursuit of the 41-year-old All-Star Forward were the Golden State Warriors (18%), Philadelphia 76ers (9%), Miami Heat (7%), Minnesota Timberwolves (6%), New York Knicks (2%), Denver Nuggets (2%), San Antonio Spurs (2%), and the Los Angeles Lakers (1%).
LeBron is a native of the Cleveland suburb of Akron and attended St. Vincent-St. Mary High School. He started his career with the Cavaliers (2003-2010), then returned to Cleveland (2014-2018) after a stint with the Miami Heat (2010-14). LBJ has won four NBA championships.
Rich Paul, the agent of the NBA’s all-time scoring leader, reportedly said a deal with the new NBA champion New York Knicks is “very, very unlikely,” and said that if the team hadn’t just won the NBA championship, his legendary client may have already joined the Knickerbockers.
With the 76ers dumping Paul George and his nasty contract and bringing in Jaylen Brown from the Celtics, this team may look good to LBJ. With Joel Embiid (26.9 PPG) at Center, a backcourt with PG Tyrese Maxey (28.3 PPG) and SG VJ Edgecombe (16.0 PPG), the King could bring hope.
🏀LeBron James Next Team: Philadelphia 76ers, Yes, 9.7c
Pro Football Playoff Qualifiers at DK Predictions
Although we’re in the heart of the Summer and glued to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the kickoff of the upcoming 2026-27 NFL Regular Season is closer than many know, with the 2026 Pro Football Hall of Fame Game with the Cardinals and Panthers in Canton less than a month away (August 6).
DraftKings Predictions has numbers up for all 32 teams in the league in the Pro Football Playoff Qualifiers 2026-27 market, which is nice, as there will be more than one ‘Yes’ winner in this market, with 14 teams making the National Football League Playoffs this season.
Here is the breakdown of the Pro Football Playoff Qualifiers 2026-27 as of July 4 by conference:
American Football Conference
Buffalo Bills Yes -355, No +300
Baltimore Ravens Yes -317, No +233
Kansas City Chiefs Yes -194, No +170
Los Angeles Chargers Yes -186, No +156
Cincinnati Bengals Yes -163, No +156
New England Patriots Yes -156, No +127
Houston Texans Yes -150, No +127
Jacksonville Jaguars Yes -113, No -100
Denver Broncos Yes -127, No -127
Pittsburgh Steelers Yes +150, No -186
Indianapolis Colts Yes +178, No -212
Las Vegas Raiders Yes +285, No -426
Tennessee Titans Yes +355, No -456
Cleveland Browns Yes +488, No -669
New York Jets Yes +525, No -900
Miami Dolphins Yes +669, No -1900
National Football Conference
Los Angeles Rams Yes -456, No +355
Seattle Seahawks Yes -233, No +150
Detroit Lions Yes -194, No +163
Philadelphia Eagles -156, No +144
San Francisco 49ers Yes -150, No +104
Green Bay Packers Yes -127, No -108
Dallas Cowboys Yes -108, No +100
Chicago Bears Yes -104, No +108
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Yes +138, No -194
Minnesota Vikings Yes +150, No -178
New Orleans Saints Yes +156, No -178
Atlanta Falcons Yes +186, No -212
Washington Commanders Yes +186, No -212
New York Giants Yes +233, No -245
Carolina Panthers Yes +233, No -285
Arizona Cardinals +733, No -4900
🏈NFL Playoff Qualifiers ‘Yes’ Picks: Patriots -156, Seahawks -233, Bears -104
🏈NFL Playoff Qualifiers ‘No’ Picks: Saints -178, Vikings -178, Bengals +156
World Cup R16 Preview: Argentina vs Egypt
Lionel Messi and Argentina continue the push for a second straight World Cup trophy when La Albiceleste face Mo Salah and Egypt in a Round of 16 game from Mercedes-Benz Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Atlanta on Tuesday (FOX, FOX One, Telemundo, 12 EDT/11 CDT/9 PDT).
Argentina went 3-0-0 in the Group Stage (8 GF-1 GA) before eliminating upstart Cape Verde in AET in the KO Stage (3-2) as Messi scored again in his race to win the Golden Boot. Egypt went 1-2-0 in the Group Stage (5 GF-3 GA) and ousted Australia on PKs in its KO Stage game in Texas.
Soccer traders at Kalshi like defending champs Argentina (84%) over Egypt (16%) to advance, while in the 90-minute, three-way market, Argentina was trading at 72% with the Pharaohs of Egypt at 10% and a tie at the end of 90 minutes (plus injury time) trading at 20%.
Argentina and Egypt have played twice, with La Albiceleste winning both times and yet to concede a goal to Egypt. The two met over a century ago in the Semi-Finals of the 1928 Amsterdam Olympics (6-0), and again in a Friendly in Cairo in 2008, which Argentina also won (2-0).
➤Trading Thoughts: FIFA champs Argentina have now gone 12-1 the last two years after beating Cape Verde, outscoring the opposition 35-5. With the best player on the planet (Messi) and one of the best GKs (Emiliano Martínez), they have been the team to try to beat in the bracket’s bottom half.
Egypt—the Dark Continent’s oldest team—is a nice story, and the Pharaohs have played a lot of soccer this calendar year, going 5-4-2 in 12 games after eliminating the Socceroos in Arlington, Texas on Friday, July 3. Egypt hasn’t lost by 2 goals in 2026, but logic says that it will here.
⚽World Cup Round of 16 Pick: Argentina 72¢ (Regulation Time Money line 3-way market)
World Cup R16 Preview: Switzerland vs Colombia
James Rodríguez and Colombia collide with GK Gregor Kobel and a very underrated Switzerland side in the second World Cup match to be played on Tuesday, this one from BC Place (FieldTurf) in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada (FOX, FOX One, Telemundo, 4 EDT/3 CDT/1 PDT).
Switzerland went 2-1-0 in the Group Stage (7 GF-3 GA), and then Nati shut out Algeria (2-0) in its R32 KO Stage game on Thursday, July 2. Colombia went 2-1-0 in the Group Stage (4 GF-3 GA) and then bounced Ghana on July 3 in its KO Stage game from Kansas City (1-0).
At Polymarket, World Cup traders are buying Colombia (62%) over Switzerland (39%) in the “To Advance” to the Quarterfinals market. In the 90-minute, three-way market, Colombia was trading at 44% with UEFA members Switzerland at 27% and a tie at the end of 90 minutes trading at 32%.
Colombia and Switzerland have played many times, with Colombia winning the last meeting (3-1), an international Friendly played in Miami on March 25, 2007. The last FIFA World Cup meeting was a 2-0 Colombia win in a Group Stage match at the 1994 World Cup in Pasadena, California.
➤Trading Thoughts: Switzerland (#15, FIFA) and Colombia (#11) always have solid rosters and big expectations heading into international competitions and the World Cup, but neither has won the World Cup, and both could give their nations memories to last a lifetime if they shock the world.
Switzerland showed its best side in the win against Canada, and in shutting out Algeria, showed it can lock down teams on defense. Can Switzerland slow down Messi and beat Argentina should the two meet in the next round? Possibly. But beating both Argentina and France seems a bit daunting.
⚽World Cup Round of 16 Pick: Switzerland 39¢ (Team to Advance Market)
WNBA Betting Wrap: Wednesday, July 9
There are three games on the WNBA schedule on Wednesday, including the league-leading Lynx (15-5) facing the team with the worst record, the Sun (4-16), at Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, CT, as the two meet for the second time in three days after playing in Minneapolis on Monday.
With rookie sensation Olivia Miles (Notre Dame), Courtney Williams, Natasha Howard, and Kayla McBride, the Lynx have impressed and were an impressive 9-2 on the road. At Robinhood Predictions, Minnesota is the favorite in the Women’s Pro Basketball Champion? at 30¢.
Golden State (8¢ to win WNBA Championship) is at expansion Toronto in the night’s first game (7 ET/4 PT), with the Indiana Fever in Los Angeles to play the Sparks (6-12 ATS) in a game where it was still unclear if Caitlan Clark (Back) would be physically able to play (USA, CNBC, 10 ET/7 PT).
Without a healthy Clark, the Fever have fallen off the radar as candidates to win the WNBA this season in prediction markets, and Indiana had an 11-8 record after the Commissioner’s Cup Championship game on June 30, which saw the Liberty (18¢) defeat the champion Aces (16¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Lynx have not only been the best team on the court this first half of the 2026 WNBA Regular Season, but Minnesota has also been the best team to bet or trade on in prediction markets or sportsbooks, going 15-5-0 ATS (75%) with a sexy +6.1 ATS +/- on July 5.
🏀WNBA Wednesday Game Pick: Minnesota Lynx by 9 points
🏀WNBA Champion Pick: New York Liberty, 18¢
WC Quarterfinals Preview: France vs Morocco
The Quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup kick off on Thursday with Kylian Mbappé and the trader’s favorites, France, meeting African heavyweights Morocco at Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts (FOX, FOX One, Telemundo, 4 ET/3 CT/1 PT).
France got here by going unbeaten in Group Stage play (3-0-0, 10 GF-3 GA) and then beating Sweden and a game Paraguay squad (1-0), while Morocco went 2-1-0 in GS play (6 GF-3 GA), drawing with Vini, Jr. and Brazil in their Group C match, then topping the Netherlands and Canada.
Soccer traders at Kalshi like UEFA side and 2022 World Cup runners-up France (76%) over CAF giants Morocco (24%) ‘To Advance,’ while in the Regulation time market with the three 90-minute possibilities, France was trading at 63% with Morocco at 15% with a Regulation Time Tie at 25%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Les Bleus have only been beaten one time in the last 2 years and are motivated by that loss to Messi and Argentina in the last World Cup, but France couldn’t have a tougher opponent to get through in the round than elite RB Achraf Hakimi and the Atlas Lions.
But it seems with the depth of the attack on France’s roster, Morocco will eventually get worn down from defending, and it’s hard to imagine France not having a 4-to-1 advantage in the crucial Shots on Target category and expect Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise (5 assists) to shine on.
⚽Thursday World Cup Quarterfinals Pick: France, 77¢ (Advances)
Dodgers Hosting Diamondbacks on Friday Night
Shohei Ohtani is scheduled to pitch on Friday when the Dodgers (59-32, 29-15 at Home) welcome the Diamondbacks (44-45, 17-25 Road) to Dodger Stadium (Santa Ana Bermuda Grass) for an NL West showdown (MLB.TV, NBC Sportsnet Los Angeles, Fubo, DBACKS.TV, 9:40 ET/6:40 PT).
The two teams had played 7 times this 2026 MLB Regular Season heading into this 3-game series from Chavez Ravine, with the two-time defending World Series champions winning 5 of the 7. Ohtani (8-2, 1.58 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) will face LHP Eduardo Rodríguez (7-2, 2.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP).
At Kalshi in the NL Champion market, Los Doyers (‘Yes’) was priced at 42% (Yes 45¢, No 56¢) with Arizona not being given much of a chance by baseball traders at just 2% (Yes 2¢, No 99¢). With LA so far ahead of the Padres and Diamondbacks in the NL West, it’s hard for them to be motivated.
➤Trading Thoughts: Shohei Ohtani was brilliant when he pitched against Arizona at Chase Field, throwing 6 scoreless innings in a 7-0 victory a month ago in the Valley of the Sun. The leading candidate for the NL MVP also reached base 5 times while doing his best Babe Ruth impersonation.
If aiming to back LA in this game, remember the price will be astronomical, even if you really gambling and backing the Dodgers in the Run Line market and laying 1.5 runs. And remember how little a win means to the team, even though they are still fighting Milwaukee for the NL’s best record.
Maybe the best approach here, if you feel the need for action or ‘Yes’ contracts in this matchup, is to look at the Under. The first series (Opening Day +2) at LA saw the Dodgers sweep (8.0 RPG), and Arizona has been the second-best Under team in MLB this season (45-37-5).
And with two really talented starters like E-Rod and Ohtani getting the pill, this one could be low-scoring and close for the first hour or so. It’s unlikely we’ll see versatile Ohtani pitching in the 2026 MLB All-Star Game from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Tuesday (FOX, 8 ET/5 PT).
⚾➤Friday MLB Trading Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (Moneyline market)
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll focus on the different categories we see in prediction markets and have trading previews for UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2, the NASCAR Quaker State 400, a Misiorowski-Skenes MLB duel in Pittsburgh, and the three 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinal games on Friday and Saturday.