World Cup kicks off Thursday: Polymarket, Kalshi both have France, Spain co-favorites at 16%

The FIFA World Cup 2026 will get underway this week on Thursday when 48 teams will participate in the iconic quadrennial Soccer tournament which, for the first time, is being held in three North American and CONCACAF countries, Canada, México, and the United States.

We previewed the 2026 FIFA World Cup Groups A-G and H-L for you in the last two issues here, so now let’s dedicate an entire issue to what will be a massive trading month for prediction markets in what normally has been a dry Summer period for sports traders with only MLB going.

Yes, you can also trade (or bet) on the WNBA, the MLS, NASCAR, Formula One, the WTA, the ATP, the PGA, the LPGA, the Tour de France, the NWSL, the KBO (Korea baseball), the NPB (Japan baseball), and all sorts of other shit, but for the sake of my lame narrative, please play along.

This issue will be like if The Gold Sheet and a World Cup magazine had a baby and will offer data and trends and picks to try to make you some money on this initial Group Stage round of the FIFA World Cup which will pare down from a record 48 teams to 32 before the Knockout Stage.

Not to be confused with famous Soccer referee Kevin_Stott, this AI-hating weird writer version of Kevin Stott rides a small cat named Ralphie to work and has never refereed anything involving humans kicking balls but has written about and bet on the beautiful game for over forty years.

There are eight teams being given greater than a 4,1% to become the Men’s World Cup Winner at Kalshi and who have betting odds of 22/1 or lower at DraftKings, and these eight are the favorites to lift the famous trophy and have provided 16 of the last 18 winners of the FIFA World Cup.

So who won the other two times (1982, 2006) that isn’t in the World Cup this year representing their country on the world stage? Non ne ho la minima idea, ma sono piuttosto sicuro che questo meraviglioso paese abbia inventato la pizza. Credo che il Papa viva lì, ma non ne sono sicuro, Leo.

The eight are France (16%), Spain (16%), England (11%) Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal (10%), Lionel Messi and defending World Cup champs Argentina (9%), Brazil (8%), Manuel Neuer and Germany (5%), and Netherlands (4%). At Kalshi, this market had $104 million volume on June 7.

At Polymarket? $1,687,464,475 in volume on June 7. The GDP of Mauritania is roughly #14.2 billion for comparison. Volume can be a deceptive thing to read into in prediction markets, but over a billion and two weeks before the WC has started? This is very serious stuff, Bubba.

Besides Italy’s two, France, Germany, Brazil, and Argentina have also won twice in the last 14 WCs with Spain winning once. England hasn’t won since 1966 and Netherlands and Portugal have never won the WC. Only clubs from Europe (12) and South America (10) have won the 22 World Cups.

Here are 4 from the 8 with a chance to win the World Cup, all from Europe and South America.

➤France (16%): The deepest roster of all WC teams, Les Bleus and HC Didier Deschamps have a Golden Boot candidate leading the attack in Kylian Mbappé along with other great goal scorers like PSG star Dembélé, Olise, Barcola, and Thuram and playmakers like Cherki, Kanté, and Doué.

On defense, France has Mike Maignan (38 caps) as its starting GK with guys like Koundé (27), Saliba (31), Konaté (27), Upemecamo (36), and Théo Hernandez and a solid MF with Tchouaméni (44), Camavinga, Rabiot (57), Koné, and 35-year-old electric playmaker Ngolo Kanté (67). 

Les Bleus went 6-1-1 (W-D-L) in 2015 and 2-0 in Friendlies in 2026, losing only to Spain and defeating Brazil, Colombia, and Germany. In these last 10 matches, France outscored opponents 28-10 and registered 4 Clean Sheets, two vs Ukraine (8 GF-0 GA). France hasn’t lost in 370 days.

➤Argentina (9%): The defending champions La Albiceleste  (The White and Sky Blue) have all the key players back, including living legend Lionel Messi (198 caps, 116 goals), GK Emiliano Martínez (58), F Lautaro Martínez (36), Julián Alvarez (51) , and Nicolás Otamendi (130). 

Expect Argentina to roll through its weak Group J, with Algeria (June 16), Austria (June 22), and Jordan (June 27), and all good opportunities to bet La Selecion. And at 8.7c (June 1), Argentina is a steal and expect them to make the R16. Argentina is 7-1-1 in its last 9, losing to Ecuador in WCQ.

Heading into Friendlies against Honduras (June 6) and Iceland (June 9), Argentina had allowed just 1 goal (Mauritania) since losing to Ecuador on September 9, 2025 (16 GF-1 GA). FIFA has Argentina ranked #3 in the world right now, behind Euro heavy weights France (#1) and Spain (#2).

Click here to trade on the FIFA World Cup 2026 Winner market at Kalshi

➤Portugal (10%): Although Portugal has never won the WC, this team is driven by that historical notion and has the best roster in decades, led by Captain Cristiano Ronaldo (226 caps, 143 goals). and a number of capable scorers like Al Nassr teammate João Félix (52), and Gonçalo Ramos (24)

On D, Seleção das Quinas feature GK Diogo Costa and D João Cancelo and Selecção das Quinas has a vibrant midfield with Vitinha, Neves, Silva, and Fernandes. Like Argentina, the ‘Yes’ price is too good, Portugal will get through the GS, beating DR Congo and Uzbekistan before facing Colombia.

Heading into Friendlies against Chile (June 6) and Nigeria (June 10), Portugal had gone 6-2-1, losing only to Northern Ireland (0-2)—who didn’t qualify for the WC—with Pedro Neto and Portugal notching 5 CS and outscoring opponents, 27-10, almost the same stats as France (28-10).

➤Germany (5%): Germany got a huge break when 40-year-old Manuel Neuer (124 caps) said he would be back for the team after earlier saying he was retired from international play, making life for HC Julian Nagelsmann 2x better and giving DFB-Team a chance to win the World Cup.

Captain Joshua Kimmich (109 caps)leads this fundamental group—ranked #10 in the world by FIFA—which includes Rüdiger (82), Goretzka (69), Leroy Sané (75 caps, 16 goals), Wirtz (40 caps, 11 goals), teen sensation and Bayern Munich MF Lennart Karl, and Havertz (57 caps, 21 goals).

After losing three straight to start 2025, Germany had won 8 straight matches—heading into a June 9 Friendly vs the USMNT in Chicago—outscoring much weaker opponents by a 26-5 margin with 5 CSs. The DFB-Team will beat Curaçao by 3 or 4, Ivory Coast by 2, and may tie with Ecuador.

➤FIFA Rank #9, 1%, 1.5c at Polymarket, 50/1 DraftKings: Hakimi (PSG) leads this underappreciated team, but with team from the Dark Continent having won the WC, this is still a real longshot as the percentages and (‘Yes’) prices reveal. Buy 100 ‘Yes’ for $1.50 and enjoy a ride.

➤FIFA Rank #11, 1%, 0.9c at Polymarket, 80/1 DraftKings: If vet AMF Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić (38 goals), Andrej Kramarić (36 goals) and Croatia (7-1-0 in 2025) can upset England at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX on June 17, the Kockasti (Checkered Ones) can win Group L (21¢).

➤FIFA Rank #13, 2%, 1.8c at Polymarket, 40/1 DraftKings: James Rodríguez (124 caps, 31 goals), and Luis Díaz (72 caps, 21 goals) lead Los Cafeteros (The Coffee Growers). For $1.80 you can’t get 100 Yes contracts or for $18, go for it and get 1,000 and hope Colombia wins its first WC.

➤FIFA Rank #17, 1%, 1.1c at Polymarket, 50/1 DraftKings: Uruguay won the first WC in 1930 and 20 years (1950). La Celeste are led by Darwin Núñez (38 caps, 13 goals), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (60 caps, 13 goals), and Federico Valverde. Uruguay hasn;t won since October 13.

➤FIFA Rank #19, 1%, 1.2c at Polymarket, 65/1 DraftKings: Defensively sound, Switzerland is led by Captain Granit Xhaka (145 caps, 7 goals) and the A-Team has gone 7-3-1 in its last 11, losing only to Germany (3-4), beating no one impressive besides Sweden. They will win their Group B.

➤FIFA Rank #23, 1%, 0.9c at Polymarket, 80/1 DraftKings: Moisés Caicedo and The Tri are always solid and these CONMEBOL side hadn’t lost in 2 years—but had 8 Draws (3-8-0)—into Guatemala Friendly (June 7). The Draws: BRA, PER, PAR, and WC tri-hosts USA, MEX, and CAN.

Click here to trade on the 2026 World Cup Winner at Polymarket

Here are the predicted Group winners for the tournament which the FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) expanded from 32 to 48 teams this year, adding 4 more groups, Group I, J, K, and L. But I thought you might like to know. None of the 16 will make the R16.

➤Group A Winner Pick: South Korea 21¢

➤Group B Winner Pick: Switzerland 54¢

➤Group C Winner Pick: Brazil 73¢

➤Group D Winner Pick: Australia 9¢

➤Group E Winner Pick: Germany 70¢

➤Group F Winner Pick: Japan 26¢

 ➤Group G Winner Pick: Belgium 68¢

➤Group H Winner Pick: Uruguay 20¢

➤Group I Winner Pick: France 67¢

➤Group J Winner Pick: Argentina 74¢

➤Group K Winner Pick: Portugal 65¢

➤Group L Winner Pick: Croatia 21¢

This doesn’t necessarily mean that teams like Spain (Group H), England (Group L), or Netherlands (Group F) will perform poorly in the Group Stage, just that all three may be edged out by Uruguay, Croatia, and Japan from either Goal Differential or a 3-0-0 (W-D-L) vs 2-1-0 reality in the end.

Here are my favorite FIFA 2026 World Cup match picks for Sides and Totals for the Group Stage:

June 14—Germany -1½ over Curaçao 

June 15—Spain -2 over Cape Verde

June 16—Norway over Iraq

June 17—Portugal -1½ over DR Congo

June 20—Germany -1½ over Ivory Coast

June 21—Uruguay -2 over Cape Verde

June 22—Senegal over Iraq

June 23—Croatia over Panama

June 23—Colombia -1½ over DR Congo
June 26—France -1 over Iraq

June 27—Croatia over Ghana

June 28—Belgium -1½ over New Zealand

June 13—Brazil-Haiti Over 3

June 14—Japan-Netherlands Under 2½

June 14—Ecuador-Ivory Coast Under 2½

June 17—Portugal-DR Congo Over 3

June 20—Japan-Tunisia Under 2½

June 23—Colombia-DR Congo Over 3

June 24—Turkey-Australia Over 2½

June 24—Brazil-Scotland Over 3

June 25—Turkey-USA Over 2½

June 14—Ecuador-Germany Under 2½

June 26—Japan-Sweden Under 2½

June 27—Colombia-Portugal Under 2½

NOTES: Brazil games in 2026 have averaged 5.0 GPG. Although Turkey has played 2 Unders in 2026, the last 6 games of 2025 saw 29 goals scored (4.83 GPG). All three Japan games in 2026 have ended 1-0. New Zealand is 1-6-1 in 2025.

Like the NFL’s Super Bowl, the FIFA World Cup offers up a number of interesting Props bets, and while some prediction markets who will remain unnamed have really dropped the ball on WC Props, Kalshi and Polymarket continue to shine and have a decent menu of interesting markets.

But the real surprise to me was how much creative content and available markets that Limitless Exchange has, as you can see above from this screenshot from their World Cup Props menu. Here are some of the more interesting Prop markets you can trade on for the next month in these three.

➤World Cup: Top Goalscorer—Polymarket

➤World Cup: Player to Score—Polymarket

➤Which Continent Will Win the World Cup?—Polymarket

➤World Cup: Nation to Reach Final—Polymarket

➤All Host Nations (USA, Mexico, Canada) to be in the Round of 32—Limitless

➤2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer—Limitless

➤2026 FIFA World Cup: Winless Team?—Limitless

➤2026 FIFA World Cup: Team to Advance to Knockout Stages—Limitless

➤2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?—Limitless

➤2026 World Cup: African Nation to Reach the Semifinas—Limitless

➤2026 World Cup: Total Goals—Kalshi

➤Messi vs Ronaldo: World Cup Goal Contributions?—Kalshi

The 26 players on the United States Men’s National (USMNT) Soccer team roster are are nice blend of veterans and youth, giving new HC Mauricio Pochettino many ways to create goals and an experience on the pitch in players like Christian Pulisic (84 Caps) and Captain Tim Ream (80). 

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup on tap this week and the Red, White, and Blue one of three North American host nations along with Canada and México, one would think the homeboys would have some edges in the Sites, friendly Body Clock Time Zones, and familiarity with the US climates.

On Sunday, May 31, the USMNT welcomed Senegal to the Land of Milk and Funny and Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte where the US won 3-2 thanks to goals from Sergiño Dest (7'), Captain America Christian Pulisic (20'), and the eventual game-winner from Folarin Balogun (63').

Miles Robinson, Sebastian Berhalter, and Christian Roldan seemed lost in the Senegal Friendly while most others impressed, including the three goal-scorers, GKs Matt Turner and Chris Brady, Timothy Weah, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Giovanni Reyna, and Christian Roldan.

USMNT Starting XI vs Senegal (3-2-2-3): Turner; Ream, McKenzie, Freeman; Adams, Berhalter; Robinson, Dest, Pulisic, Pepi, Reyna

On Saturday, June 6, the USMNT rallied to tie Germany 1-1 on an Antonee Robinson goal after an early Kai Havertz (7) tally, before losing 2-1 on a 2nd Half game-winner from the visitors talent Leroy Sané at Soldier Field in Chicago where all outfielders played for the Red, White, and Blue.

USMNT Starting XI vs Germany (4-2-3-1): Freese; Miles Robinson, Ream, Antonee Robinson, Freeman; Adams, Tillman; McKennie, Dest; Balogun

As a CONCACAF nation, winning the WC will be hard for the USA (60/1, DraftKings), so the immediate goal will be advancing from the Group Stage to the Knockout Stage (32 teams) to avoid any embarrassment. But The Stars and Stripes play in a group (D) where any of the four could win.

We will handicap and make picks for all three of the USMNT Group Stage matches—including the opener on Friday vs La Albirroja of Paraguay below—in the upcoming issues of The Prediction Report. Here is The Stars and Stripes slate in Group D:

⚽ Friday, June 12—vs Paraguay at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA, 9 EDT/6 PDT, FOX, TELE

⚽ Monday, June 19—vs Australia at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA, 3 EDT/12 PDT, FOX, TELE

⚽ Thursday, June 25—vs Turkey at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA, 10 EDT/7 PDT, FOX, TELE

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will begin with co-host nation México hosting South Africa at Estadio Banorte (GrassMaster) aka Azteca Stadium in México City, México for this tournament and Group A lidlifter on Thursday afternoon (FOX, FOX One, TELE, PEACOCK, 3 EDT/2 CDT/2 MDT/12 PDT).

At Polymarket, Raúl Jiménez (123 caps 44 goals), Brian Gutiérrez and México (70%) are the traders’ big favorites over South Africa (12%) and a Draw (20%) after 90 minutes of play. The Total is at 2.5 (Over 45%, Under 56%) with México -1.5 priced at 40c (South Africa +1.5 61c).

➤Trading Thoughts: The early money has poured in on México, and that is to be expected with folks stateside more familiar with Pizza! Pizza! then they are with Bafana Bafana. In the FIFA World rankings, México (WWDDW) is ranked #15 and South Africa (DLDLW) is currently at #60.

The Home Site (México City) and Situation (WC opener) should give El Tri the energy to appease the loud crowd with an early (First Half) goal. Host México is unbeaten 5-2-0 (9 GF-1 GA) in 2026 with 6 CS and just 1 Goal Allowed (GA) heading into a June 4 Friendly vs Serbia at Toluca Bueno. ➤ Picks: México 70¢, Under 2.5 56¢

Click here to trade on the Mexico vs South Africa World Cup match at Polymarket

The second match of Group A play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup will see Czechia facing South Korea at Estadio Akron (Grass) in Guadalajara. México on Thursday night (FOX, FOX One, TELE, PEACOCK, 10 EDT/9 CDT/8 MDT/7 PDT) in a game between two very underrated WC teams.

At Polymarket, Son Heung-min, Kim Min-jae, and Lee Kang-in and South Korea aka Republic of Korea (36%) is the slight favorite over Patrik Schick and Czechia aka the Czech Republic (35%) and a Draw (31%) after 90 minutes of play and Injury Time. The Total is at 2.5 (Over 43%, Under 58%).

➤Trading Thoughts: In the FIFA World rankings, South Korea (WLLWW) is #25 with Czechia (WWWWW) at #41. The last 4 Czechia games saw 17 goals. The last 7 SK matches have all been CS (4-0-3), all Friendlies. SK just played El Salvador in a Friendly on June 3 in Provo, Utah.

No team from Asia has ever won the World Cup and it’s hard to see the Tigers of Asia making the final 16 although they could very well win this Group A. But Czechia has been playing well and can score with attackers like Václav Černý (30 caps, 8 goals) and Matěj Vydra (48 caps, 7 goals). ➤Picks: Both Teams To Score, Yes 54¢, Under 2.5 58¢

Click here to trade on the South Korea vs Czechia World Cup match at Polymarket

The opening match of Group B play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup has host Canada meeting Bosnia-Herzegovina at BMO Field (Hybrid Grass) in Toronto, Canada on Friday afternoon (FOX, FOX One, TELE, PEACOCK, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT) in what could be a tough Loss if there is a loser.

At Limitless Exchange, Alphonso Davies (58 Caps, 15 goals) and Canada are the favorite of traders (53%) with Bosnia-Herzegovina the underdogs (23%) and a Draw priced at 26% after 90 minutes of play and IT. Canada was -120 at DraftKings with the Zmajevi (The Dragons) +240 (Draw +255).

➤Trading Thoughts: In the FIFA World rankings, Canada (WDDWW) is #30 with Edin Džeko (148 caps, 73 goals) and Bosnia-Herzegovina (DWWDW) at #65. The last 4 BIH games all saw 2 goals. Using Canada as a parlay with fellow hosts México may not exactly be NAFTA but may be a winner.

Les Rogues (The Reds) have some great and productive Forwards in Cyle Larin (88 caps, 30 goals), Jonathan David (75 caps, 39 goals), Tani Oluwaseyi (22 caps, 2 goals), and 24-year-old wunderkind David Promise will score here but BIH are no slouch. ➤ Pick: Total Goals 3.5+, No 56¢

Click here to trade on the Canada vs Bosnia Herzegovina World Cup match at Limitless Exchange

The opener in Group D sees host Christian Pulisic and the United States facing Paraguay at SoFi Stadium (SURFACE) in Inglewood, CA on Friday night (FOX, FOX One, TELE, PEACOCK, Fubo, 9 EDT/8 CDT/6 PDT) and if one loses here, it will be a tough row to hoe the rest of Group D play.

At Limitless Exchange, Folarin Balogun and co-host the USA are the favorite of traders (48%) with Paraguay underdogs (25%) and a Draw priced at 28% after 90 minutes of play. The USA was +105 at online sportsbook DraftKings with Los Guaraníes (The Guaraníes) trading at +225 (Draw +245).

The US beat Paraguay in a friendly in November at Subaru Park in Chester, PA (2-1) as Balogun and Giovanni Reyna scored for The Stars and Stripes. In the FIFA World rankings, USA (WLLWW) is #16 with Antonio Sanabria (51 caps, 8 goals), and stubborn Paraguay (LWWLL) at #40.

➤Trading Thoughts: Here, the USMNT should again find a way to score 2 goals against Paraguay which has never really been an offensive juggernaut and has always been stuck in the long shadows of other CONMEBOL nations like Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay.

With Sanabria, Miguel Almirón (47 caps, 7 goals), and Ángel Romero (51 caps, 8 goals), Los Guaraníes should score against USMNT GK Matt Turner. But with Dest, Weah, McKennie, Reyna, Roldan, Balogun, and Pulisic, the USA can score. ➤ Picks: USA, Yes 48¢, BTTS Yes 47.6¢ (Limitless), Over 2.5 +110 (DK)

Click here to trade on the USA vs Paraguay WorldCup match at Limitless Exchange

 ➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at UFC 250 at the White House, a New York bar using Kalshi as insurance, George Santos involved in potential insider trading, and pump previews of the PGA RBC Canadian, the F1 Barcelona Grand Prix, and the NASCAR Pocono 400.. Thanks for reading and subscribing and best of luck trading. Homework is everything.