WNBA Season Tipping Off

In this issue we look at the start of the 2026 WNBA Regular Season, DAZN getting into PMs, the 2026 Prediction Market Conference Calendar, the AP NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year markets, two EPL fixtures, two MLB games, El Clásico in La Liga, a UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland preview, and a preview of the NASCAR Go Bowling at the Glen racing from Watkins Glen on Sunday.

The 2024 WNBA season introduced pro fans to Kaitlan Clark and Angel Reese, the 2025 WNBA Regular Season gave us Dallas Wings rookie and UConn #1 WNBA pick Paige Bueckers and the 2026 WNBA season introduces us to Azzi Fudd, another UConn #1 pick by the Dallas Wings.

On Friday, the 2026 WNBA Regular Season will tip off with three games with the New York hosting Connecticut (ION, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT), the new Toronto Tempo hosting Washington (ION, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT), and Golden State welcoming Seattle to the Bay (ION, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT).

Some things worth knowing about this season: The season runs from May 7 to September 15 and there are 15 teams now with the aforementioned Toronto Tempo and the Portland Fire expanding into the league.

The Chicago Sky will host the Three-Point Contest (Friday, July 24) and 2026 WNBA All-Star Game (Saturday, July 25) from Wintrust Arena in Chicago. The Sky traded human rebound machine Angel Reese to the Atlanta Dream for two Round 1 draft picks in the offseason.

This will be the last season the Sun play in Connecticut, with NBA Houston Rockets’ owner Tilman Fertitta buying the franchise with the expressed intent of moving it to H-Town and reviving the Houston Comets.

As capital keeps rotating into new themes and narratives, other traders are watching a very different market move unfold:

Different market, same idea. Positioning early tends to matter most before broader participation shows up.

➤Trading Thoughts: The aging Liberty—Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquell Jones, Satou Sabaly—look to rebound after a sad 2025 after winning the title in 2024. NY are favorites to win the WNBA championship at Kalshi and online sportsbooks (+220, DraftKings).

NY will not lose its Home opener at MSG on Friday. Toronto will be playing its first game ever and Seattle is at Home, so backing two teams in their Home openers just to win and fading an expansion team playing its first game ever (NYL+WAS+SEA) would be the logical approach.

A’ja Wilson and Las Vegas are the defending champions and will be the team to beat in the West. And with the young couple (Fudd, Bueckers) in the backcourt in Dallas, maybe the Wings can fly into the WNBA Playoffs and surprise? ➤Opening Night Game Picks: Liberty, Mystics, Storm

Handicapping the WNBA: 2026 Champion Futures exchange at Polymarket preseason, we see traders backing the New York Liberty (27%), Kaitlan Clark and the Indiana Fever (16%), 4-time MVP A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces (15%), and Angel Reese and the Atlanta Dream (11%).

Following in early trading order were the Minnesota Lynx (10%), the Los Angeles Sparks (5%) after bringing back F Nneka Ogwumike and signing Ariel Atkins, the Dallas Wings (3%), the Phoenix Mercury (3%), Veronica Burton and the Golden State Valkyries (2%)

The big underdogs in the women’s professional basketball league heading into this 30th season are the Seattle Storm (1%). Washington Mystics (1%), the Chicago Sky (1%), the Connecticut Sun (<1%), the expansion Toronto Tempo (<1%), and the expansion Portland Fire (<1%).

➤Trading Thoughts: Because of re-seeding in the WNBA Playoffs, you can’t count on a traditional Eastern Conference vs Western Conference matchup in the Finals as we saw last year when West Conference teams LV and Phoenix played for the crown with the Aces burning down the house.

Unlike sports betting, you can buy ‘No’s in prediction markets for Futures markets and despite the high prices already, buying ‘No’ on Clark and the much-hyped Fever (88¢) seems to have value. The key here is to try to peg the two best teams who will survive and make the 2026 WNBA Finals.

For me, it’s the veteran Liberty and Aces who will meet once again. LV has been in the Finals in 4 of the last 6 years (2020, 2022, 2023, 2025) with NY making it to the championship 2 of the last 3 seasons (2023, 2024). ➤Trading Picks: Las Vegas Aces, Yes 19¢, Indiana Fever, No 88¢

Click here to trade on the WNBA: 2026 Champion market at Polymarket

Sports streaming service DAZN has reportedly applied to join the National Futures Association (NFA) as an introducing broker in what may be the first steps into the company offering prediction markets here in the United States.

The platform applied for the membership on April 21, 2026 under Sports Marketing 1 LLC, owned by DAZN’s Malta subsidiary DZBT which operates the DAZN Bet platform in Europe. In January, DAZN announced a partnership with Polymarket followed by a deal with ADI Predictstreet.

DAZN could offer event contracts on a registered Designated Contract Market (DCM) as an introducing broker just like DraftKings Predictions does. FanDuel Predicts and Robinhood are Futures Commissions Merchants (FCM) and must join the CFTC-delegated self-regulatory NFA.

The company also made relatively big news later in the week in the sports streaming space when the London-based media company announced that it had agreed to buy the technology company ViewLift in a reported $100,000 cash and company equity deal.

Prediction markets have become all the rage in the last couple of years, with the 2024 US Presidential election blowing up the space and exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket providing a nice niche for people in states like California and Texas where sports gambling is still illegal.

And like with all industries, the popularity and money means conferences and we have a list of some of the upcoming prediction market conferences in both the United States and worldwide. The conferences are usually 1 or 2 days with the exception of the Las Vegas weekends (3 days).

Here are the major prediction market conferences planned so far for the rest of the calendar year:

With the completion of the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh from April 23-25, online sportsbooks and prediction markets were quick to put up markets for the 2026 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Despite being the #1 pick by the Raiders, Fernando Mendoza, is not the favorite to win.

Kalshi traders were backing Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love (25%)—taken by Arizona—over Indiana University QB and 2025 Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza (25%) with a bunch of decent WRs following at the prediction market like Ohio State WR Carnell Tate (14%—TEN).

Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson (14%—NO), Notre Dame RB Jadarian Price (14%—SEA), USC WR Makai Lemon (9%—PHIL), Texas A&M WR KC Concepcion (6%—CLEV), Georgia QB Carson Beck (5%—AZ), Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr (5%—NYJ), and Oregon QB Drew Allar (4%—PIT) followed.

➤Trading Thoughts: Presented and voted on by the Associated Press (AP), the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year has gone to either a QB or WR the last 6 straight years with WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona) winning the award last season after QB Jayden Daniels (LSU) won in 2024.

It may be too early to get down in this market with 10 months tying up funds before a winner who may not even be on the PM list yet. Shopping for longshots may be wise. For now, sportsbooks have more choices than PMs. We’ll look at the NFL AP Defensive Rookie of the Year next issue.

Cooper Jr (5¢) should be the Jets #2 WR and be targeted much, but with QB Geno Smith, expect more Fear and Loathing in East Rutherford. RB Price (14¢) is also a good look as he should plug right into Seattle’s backfield after Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III signed with KC. ➤Trading Picks: Price 14¢, Cooper Jr. 5¢ 

Click here to trade on Who Will Be the Pro Football Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner? at Kalshi

The 2026 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year is also a good market to analyze now and seems a little more wide open after the completion of the 2026 NFL Draft last month in the Steel City.

Kalshi traders were on Ohio State LB Sonny Styles (19%—WASH), Texas Tech LB David Bailey (17%)—taken by the NY Jets who had a stellar draft—followed by Miami Florida LB Rueben Bain Jr (17%—TB), Ohio State S Caleb Downs (15%—DAL), and Ohio State LB Arvell Reese (15%—NYG).

Following in May 7 trading order, Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy (13%—LVR), Virginia Tech CB Mansoor Delane (9%—KCC), Georgia LB CJ Allen (8%—IND), Florida DE Caleb Banks (8%—IND), Purdue S Dillon Thieneman (7%—CHI), and West Virginia LB Akheem Mesidor (7%—LAC).

➤Trading Thoughts: It looks like picking LB to win the 2026 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year would be a good idea, but which one? All should get playing time and the DBs (Downs, Thieneman, Delane) could get interceptions which might improve their chances as rookies. ➤Trading Pick: Reuben Bain Jr 17¢

Click here to trade on Who Will Be the Pro Football Defensive Rookie of the Year Winner? at Kalshi

EPL Matchweek 36 will see Liverpool (17-7-11) welcoming Chelsea (13-9-13) to Anfield (GrassMaster) on Saturday (USA, 7:30 EDT/6:30 CDT/4:30 PDT) in a fixture much more important to Cole Palmer and the struggling 9th-place Blues looking for a UEFA Europa League berth.

At Polymarket, traders are buying Liverpool (53%) over now 9th-place Chelsea (25%) with a Draw at 24%. The Total 2.5 sees Over at 67¢ (Under 47¢). The Both Teams To Score prop (‘Yes’) at 67¢.

➤Trading Thoughts: There will be a number of critical guys not playing in this one, including the Reds Mohamed Salah (Calf) and Hugo Ekitike (Achilles) and the Blues Estêvão (Hamstring) out for the rest of the season. The unhappy veteran Salah may have played his last match here at Anfield.

This one starts very early, so beware and it won’t surprise if it’s 0-0 at halftime. CFC fired its manager—like it always does about this time—and in poor form after another disappointing season after spending too much money. ➤Trading Pick: Under 3.5 Goals, Yes 56¢

Click here to trade on the Liverpool vs Chelsea EPL match at Polymarket

FOX is dishing up two MLB games with Arizona hosting New York from Chase Field (Shaw Sports B1K) and San Diego welcoming St Louis to Petco Park (BullsEye Bermuda Grass) in two National League matchups on Saturday night (7:15 EDT/6:15 CDT/4:15 PDT).

The (2026 MLB World Series Winner) Pro Baseball Champion market at Kalsh shows Fernando Tatis Jr and the Padres a 4.0% of winning this season’s MLB championship with the Mets at 2.5%, the Diamondbacks at 0.9%, and the Cardinals 0.2% on May 1.

San Diego has gotten off to a decent start and has the best Relief Pitching in MLB led by Mason Miller (10 saves, 0.59 WHIP) while NL West counterpart Arizona has been very average, St Louis better than expected and scoring runs the old fashioned way, with the Mets stinking everywhere.

➤Trading Thoughts: NY and Arizona split games last year with each going 2-1 at the other’s stadium. In the Mets 2 wins in the Sonoran Desert, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Juan Soto all figured prominently but Alonso’s now in Baltimore and Lindor (Calf) is injured.

The ESPN 2025 MLB H2H grid reveals that San Diego went 4-3 against St Louis last season, winning 2 of the 3 meetings at Home. Expect runs to be scarce in all three games of this series. ➤Game Total Pick: Padres-Cardinals Under 7

Click here to trade on Major League Baseball at Kalshi

There is another big MMA Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) card from Dana White on tap with UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland coming from the octagon at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night (Main Card—Paramount+, 9 EDT/8 CDT/7 MDT/6 PDT).

In the main event on the Main Card (Paramount+, 9 ET/6 PT), Russian undefeated champion Khamzat Chimaev (15-0-0, 6 KOs) puts his belt on the line in a Middleweight fight with American Sean Strickland (30-7, 12 KOs) where oddsmakers and PM traders have Chimaev a heavy chalk.

At Polymarket in the winner market for this fight, traders overwhelmingly are behind Khamzat Chimaev (83%) with the former champ and underdog Sean “Tarzan” Strickland (18%) with the Total (rounds) at 1.5 (Yes 96c, No 32c). Here is the rest of the night’s card with trading links:

Click here to trade on events on the UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland card at Polymarket

The 2025-26 EPL season wanes, but the remaining fixtures matter for some looking to win the EPL (Arsenal, Manchester City), to qualify for the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League (1st-5th) or the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League (6th-7th or more), or to avoid a dreaded relegation (18th-20th).

So the West Ham United (9-9-17, 36 PTS) vs Arsenal (23-7-5, 76 PTS) fixture from London Stadium (Grass) on Sunday (USA, 11:30 EDT/8:30 PDT) is more than a London derby with one worried about a title and Goal Differential (GD) and the other worried about staying up in the EPL.

At Polymarket, traders liked visitors Arsenal (61%) over West Ham United (23%) with a Draw (18%) the trader’s third choice of outcomes. The Total (goals) of 2.5 early on May 7 saw the ‘Yes’ at 57¢ (‘No’ 44¢) with the Both Teams To Score prop (‘Yes’) trading at 57¢ (‘No’ 46¢).

➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the last 5 meetings in this series—all EPL results—we see that Viktor Gyökeres, Declan Rice and the Gunners are 3-0-2 (W-D-L) vs West Ham (11 GF-5 GA) with the Home side going a miserable 1-4-0 and 4 Clean Sheets—2 at Arsenal and 2 at West Ham.

The Gunners will be conscious of trying to score as much as possible, knowing MCFC is thinking and trying to do the same thing in Matchweek 36. The last two meetings at WHU saw 13 goals (6.5 GPG), 11 of them from visiting Arsenal. ➤Trading Picks: Arsenal, Yes 61¢, Over 2.5 Goals, Yes 57¢

 Click here to trade on the West Ham United vs Arsenal EPL match at Polymarket

The 2025-26 Spanish LALIGA season is almost over with Barcelona winning the league, but there is still a big fixture on the schedule with El Clásico coming on Sunday afternoon (ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes, 3 ET/2 CT/12 PT as Real Madrid (24-5-5, 77 PTS) heads to Barcelona (29-1-4, 88 PTS).

Both historic clubs are out of the UEFA Champions League tournament and neither made the Copa del Rey (Spanish Cup) Final which saw Real Sociedad defeat Atlético Madrid on PKs in April, so both will be looking to rebuild with the Catalans reportedly targeting Chelsea’s João Pedro.

Soccer traders at Polymarket like Robert Lewandowski and hosts Barcelona (55%) over Real Madrid (25%) with a Draw at 22% at Camp Nou (GrassMaster Hybrid Grass) in Barcelona, Spain. The Total sees the Over 3.5 at 60c (Under 45c) with the Both Teams To Score prop (‘Yes’) at 79c.

➤Trading Thoughts: The Home club has won the last four El Clásicos, all by 1 goal (BAR 3-2, RM 2-1, BAR 4-3, BAR 3-2) in results averaging 5.00 GPG. But with the Catalans sparkplug Lamine Yamal (16 goals) out for the rest of the season and the silverware won, motivation may be lacking.

Kylian Mbappé (24 goals) and Los Blancos may also be a bit apathetic here, with a disappointing 2nd-place LALIGA finish already secured and nothing left to play for. Not all El Clásicos are created equal. It’s hard to see Barcelona losing at Camp Nou. ➤Trading Picks: Barcelona 55¢, BTTS Yes 78¢

Click here to trade on the Barcelona vs Real Madrid Spanish LALIGA match at Polymarket

The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season continues this weekend with the 12th race of the year, the 2026 Go Bowling at the Glen from Watkins Glen International Speedway (Asphalt) in Watkins Glen, New York on Sunday (TV—FS1, HBO Max, RADIO—MRN, SiriusXM, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).

The 100-lap race will be contested by 38 drivers over the 7-turn, 2.454-mile (595.158 km) track.

Shane van Gisbergen (Trackhouse Racing) won here last year in his Chevrolet and Chevys have won the most at Watkins Glen (23). The first race was in 1957 when a bottle of Coke was a nickel.

NASCAR traders at Polymarket like Shane Van Gisbergen (41%), Connor Zilisch (21%), Christopher Bell (9%), Tyler Reddick (9%), Chris Bueschler (6%), Ty Gibbs (5%), William Byron (5%), Chase Briscoe (4%), Chase Elliott (4%), Kyle Larson (4%), and Ryan Blaney (4%).

➤Trading Thoughts: The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule sees the circuit at the Dover Motor Speedway in Dover Delaware on Sunday, May 17 for the NASCAR All-Star Race (TV—FS1, HBO Max, RADIO—MRN, SiriusXM, 4 EDT/3 CDT/2 MDT/1 PDT).

In the 2026 Würth 400 from the Texas Motor Speedway last Sunday, Chase Elliott took the checkered flag for his third win of the season followed by Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Reddick, and Buescher. Elliott and Reddick are just confident, period, and Toyota Twins Hamlin and Bell are hot.

The Chevrolets have fared very well here as has Hendrick Motorsports (11 wins), so backing 2-time winner Elliott (2018, 2019) to get his third checkered flag at Dover is one trading angle and you can’t beat the longshot price on May 7 (4¢). ➤Race Winner Trading Picks: Chase Elliott 4¢

Click here to trade on NASCAR Cup Series 2026 Go Bowling at the Glen race at Kalshi

 ➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the 2026 PGA Championship, the weekly Earnings Calendar, an NHL Stanley Cup winner update, English Premier League, La Liga, Major League Soccer, and Coppa Italia Final previews from the pitch, and an MLB preview and picks from the Yankees vs Mets Subway Series game from Queens on Friday. Thanks for reading and subscribing and best of luck if trading.