A’Ja, Aces Begin Title Defense on September 27
The 2026 WNBA Playoffs will get underway this weekend on Sunday, September 27, with four best-of-three First Round 1 series in a 1-1-1 format, beginning with the higher seeds (Minnesota, Golden State, Las Vegas, and Atlanta) all hosting Game 1 and a possible deciding Game 3.
On Sunday, October 4, the Semifinals will see the final four teams battle in a best-of-five format (2-2-1), and the best-of-seven series (2-2-1-1-1) 2026 WNBA Finals is scheduled to get going on Saturday, October 17. Las Vegas are the defending champs after sweeping Phoenix.
Many of the stars we will see in this WNBA postseason just got back to the US after playing in and winning the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup, when Team USA rallied to defeat France in the Gold Medal game in Germany on September 13.
The Lynx’s Napheesa Collier, the Dream’s Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard, LV’s A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young, NY’s Breanna Stewart (tournament MVP), Dallas’s Paige Bueckers, and Indiana’s Caitlyn Clark and Aliyah Boston were all over in Germany winning gold.
The first-round matchups look like #1 Minnesota (33-11) gets the #8-seed New York; #2-seed Golden State plays #7 Dallas; #3-seed and defending champs Las Vegas collide with Caitlin Clark and #6-seed Indiana; and Angel Reese and #4-seed Atlanta will face upstart #6 Washington.
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2026 WNBA Champions One of Four?
There are only eight teams that can claim the title of 2026 WNBA Champions, and it will be hard for the #8-seed to top #1-seed Minnesota in the First Round of play, but the #2 vs. #7, #3 vs. #6, and #3 vs. #4 matchups could go either way in a tricky best-of-3 where Game 1 can be instant hell.
One simple way to look at this? Are Minnesota and Golden State too young? And are A’Ja Wilson and defending champions Las Vegas and Breanna Stewart and New York too old? The Fever have two dynamic scorers in Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark but may get beat up in the First Round.
Dynamic rookie, and deserved WNBA MVP candidate, and Notre Dame product Olivia Miles and Minnesota (42%) are the deserving favorites to win the title this season, and the Lynx opener may be a quick sweep and provide physical and mental rest, although the #8-seed team.
Golden State (13%), Las Vegas (14%), 2023 WNBA ROY Rhyne Howard and rebound machine Angel Reese and Atlanta (13%), 2024 WNBA ROY Caitlan Clark and Indiana (11%), New York (6%), Washington (2%), and 2025 WNBA ROY Paige Bueckers and Dallas (2%) all follow.
📊Trading Thoughts: The Aces have won three of the last four seasons and are capable with HC Becky Hammons and reigning WNBA RS and Finals MVP A’Ja Wilson, but will have to play three perfect rounds (if LV is lucky enough) to make it four crowns in the last five WNBA dribbles.
Why? The Lynx (31-9) have been brilliant all season, especially on the Road (17-3), where Napheesa Collier (18.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG), Kayla McBride (18.1 PPG), Natasha Howard (14.9 PPG), Olivia Miles (19.7 PPG), and Courtney Williams (14.3 PPG) have really gelled as they hoped.
Minnesota, LV, NY, and Indiana all have multiple stars, can outscore anyone on a given night, and can win on the road. Is GS for real? Not yet. The Valkyries have made great strides and have Gabby Williams, Janelle Salaun, and Veronica Burton, but they still lack rebounding and depth.
🏀2026 WNBA Champions Picks: Minnesota Lynx, Yes 42¢, Golden State, No 89¢
WNBA MVP, WNBA Finals MVP Winner Markets
Rookie PG and Afropuff sparkplug Olivia Miles (19.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.3 SPG) is good enough to win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year, the 2026 WNBA MVP, and the 2026 WNBA Finals MVP, but the writers and PMs are indicating LV’s A’ja Wilson (91%) will be the RS MVP.
Miles checked in at 3% in the 2026 WNBA MVP market on September 23, with the Fever’s prolific scoring duo of Kelsey Mitchell (25.0 PPG) and Caitlin Clark (22.8 PPG) registering 2% and <1% respectively in essentially a 4-woman race that is essentially more like a 1-woman non-race.
Wilson was averaging 26.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 SPG and 2.0 BPG—all numbers better than the 23-year-old Miles (5-10) who is 6 inches shorter than Wilson and 7 years older. But if this were an MVP of High Hair, all of the ‘Yes’ contracts would be on Minnesota’s Miss Miles.
In the more open Kalshi 2026 WNBA Finals MVP exchange, Napheesa Collier (34%) was out front as the Regular Season was coming to an end, with Lynx teammate Olivia Miles (30%), last year’s WNBA Finals MVP, the Aces A’ja Wilson (16%), and Fever gunner Caitlan Clark (10%) next.
The Liberty’s Breanna Stewart (6%), the Lynx’s Gabby Williams (1%), and Dream star Rhyne Howard (1%) also registered at Kalshi. Should the Lynx get upset in the First Round, this market will be turned on its head, so monitor the Game 1 result and act accordingly. And clean your ears.
📊Trading Thoughts: This will depend on who makes the 2026 WNBA Finals, and Minnesota teammates Collier and Miles may cannibalize each other in the voting. Voters may like Miles as she is a rookie, the floor general, and the Lynx have been stellar this season. But A’ja is making history.
🏀2026 WNBA Finals MVP Pick: A’ja Wilson, Yes 92¢
2026 MTV Video Music Awards Airing Sunday
After hosting the Emmys on September 14, the Peacock Theater in LA will be the site of the 2026 MTV Awards live on Sunday night (TV—MTV, CBS, Streaming—Paramount+, 7:30 ET/6:30 CT/4:30 PT) with Snoop Dogg creepin’ through the fog to host in Tinsel Town, so bring dog treats.
The 2026 VMAs will see living legend Madonna open the night as the 68-year-old Queen of Pop and largest-selling female artist of all time, making her first performance on the show in 23 years.
Prediction market Kalshi is loaded with markets for almost all 2026 MTV Awards categories:
Among the already ”Determined” MTV Video Music Awards markets, the 2026 Video of the Year Winner? where none other than Ariana Grande won the iconic Moon Man statue for her video for “brighter days ahead,” topping Kendrick Lamar (“Not Like Us”) and Sabrina Carpenter (“Manchild”).
📊Trading Thoughts: Using favorites like CORTIS (Best New Artist) and cat-loving billionaire newlywed Taylor Swift (Artist of the Year) in a parlay or combo seems like an entertaining way to approach this awards show market if desired. If not, enjoy the show and feel old? It’s free.
#20 Oregon at #12 USC on Saturday in Big Ten
Two old Pac-12 schools, Oregon (1-1, 0-0 Big Ten) and USC (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten), meet in Big Ten play at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Bermuda Grass) in LA on Saturday (NBC, Peacock, 7:30 EDT/4:30 PDT) in a September game which will be a tough loss, especially for the wounded Ducks.
QB Dante Moore and Oregon already suffered an unexpected loss, falling to Oklahoma State (39-31) in Week 3 while Jayden Maiava (896 passing yards, 10 TD, 1 INT) and the Trojans have defeated non-conference foes SJS, Fresno State, and Louisiana by a combined 130-56 margin.
The trade at prediction market Kalshi has USC solid 60% favorites over visiting Oregon (40%), with the prediction market seeing Southern Cal as 2.5-point favorites (after ORE opened -3.5) with the Total at 61.5o -112 (Moneyline: USC -166, ORE +140, DraftKings) on September 23.
📊Trading Thoughts: The Grand Old Lady has hosted some important games, and this one will be another with massive pressure on Oregon not to get a second loss so early in the season. The Ducks have fared well vs. USC, going 8-2 SU the last 10 and 7-3-0 ATS, with 7 Overs in the last 10.
In their 2012 meeting in LA, the teams combined for 113 points (ORE 62, USC 51) and 1,345 Total Yards in a game that went Over the Total (72) by 41 points, then the 5th straight Over in the series, but still when these two programs called the Pac-12 home and we had a Power 5, not a Power 4.
Oregon has disappointed, but has its back against the wall, and scoring 30+ here is to be expected. With RB King Miller and new WRs Trent Mosley and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, and TE Mark Bowman, the Trojans (43.3 PPG) and Maiava are just as electric as the Ducks these days.
🏈NCAAF Saturday Week 4 Totals Pick: Oregon-USC Over 61.5. Yes 52¢
NCAAF: #23 A&M at #10 LSU Saturday Night
The SEC Regular Season schedule is a grind, as #20 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1 SEC) has learned in recent years, and the Aggies will be reminded of that when they play #11 LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at Tiger Stadium (Celebration Bermuda Grass) in Baton Rouge, LA on Saturday (ABC, 7:30 ET/4:30 PT).
Death Valley is never kind to the opponent, but Saturday nights can be really nasty on the bayou. Texas A&M will come in just as sour as LSU—which saw HC Lane Kiffin lose to his old school Ole Miss last Saturday—after losing its SEC opener to Kentucky at home in College Station in Week 3.
The collective wisdom of the College Football masses at Kalshi is buying ‘Yes’ that LSU (76%) beats Texas A&M (24%) in the Texas A&M vs LSU trade. And this is deemed a “trade “ as there are two sides determining contract prices as opposed to one where the sportsbook sets the line.
📊Trading Thoughts: LSU will go as Sam Leavitt goes, and this game vs. A&M will mark the second straight tough game for the Tigers after facing Ole Miss last week in another game with massive CFP implications. No one wants to pick up an early season loss, let alone two, in September.
In the last 10 meetings between these two, both are 5-5 SU with LSU 7-3-0 ATS; however, A&M has won and got the money in the last two meetings (2024-2025), winning by 15 and 24. The Over has been the bet, going 8-2-0, and cashing in the last 5 straight times and averaging 63.8 PPG.
Aggies QB Marcel Reed has some decent guys to get the ball to in RB Rueben Owens II and WR Isaiah Horton, and the Aggies' last loss was to Miami (10-3) in the First Round of the 2025 CFP. The AccuWeather forecast for Baton Rouge is calling for very warm temperatures (86°F -89°F ).
🏈NCAAF Saturday Week 4 Totals Pick: Texas A&M-LSU Over 51.5, Yes 56¢
NASCAR in KC for the Hollywood Casino 400
The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs and The Chase resume with the Hollywood Casino 400 (267-lap, 400.5-mile ) from the Midwest and Kansas Speedway (Asphalt) in Kansas City, Kansas, on Sunday afternoon (TV—USA, HBO Max, Radio—SiriusXM, MRN; 6 EDT/5 CDT/4 MDT/3 PDT).
Last weekend at the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race from the Bristol Motor Speedway (Concrete) in Bristol and the 29th race of the season, Joey Logano won for the third time this season to move up the standings while Ryan Blaney and Ryan Hocevar threw fists.
The NASCAR Cup Series Champion? The exchange at Kalshi is still on, with Denny Hamlin (30%) leading, followed by Kyle Larson (28%), Christopher Bell (15%), and surging Joey Logano (13%).
📊Trading Thoughts: The Toyotas have been great this season (Toyota 15 wins, Chevrolet 7, Ford 6), but these last races in the chase will all be about the drivers and not the car manufacturers. At this point, trying to trade or pick a winner is an exercise in futility, with anyone able to win.
Last year, Chase Elliott won here, the second straight year a Chevy got the checkered flag at the September race at Kansas Speedway. Joey Logano (3) has the most wins in this race with Chevrolet (13) the top manufacturer and Hendrick Motorsports the top winning team (7).
In the Hollywood Casino 400, Hamlin (18%) and Larson (18%) were the co-favorites at Kalshi on September 23, followed by Bell (14%), Reddick (12%), Blaney (8%), Wallace (7%), Elliott (7%), and Gibbs (7%). Logano and Bell are hot while the co-favorites need the win and the points. Chase on.
🏁NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 Race Winner Picks: None
Formula One at the Baku City Circuit on Sunday
Round 19 race of the current 2026 Formula One World Championship season comes on Sunday with the running of the 2026 Qatar Airways Azerbaijan Grand Prix from the Baku City Circuit in Baku City, Azerbaijan (TV—ESPN, Streaming—F1 TV App, 7 a.m. EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT).
In the Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid, Spain, on September 13, Kimi Antonelli won after AKA12 captured the Italian GP the race before. Can the rookie make it three straight wins with another checkered flag at the 51-lap, 20-turn Baku City Circuit and the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
📊Trading Thoughts: The polymarket at Kalshi for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix Main Race Winner? sees Italian rookie and circuit leader Kimi Antonelli (43%) as the big favorite over Lando Norris (12%), George Russell (11%), Lewis Hamilton (9%), Charles Leclerc (5%), and Oscar Piastri (3%).
A win on Sunday will crush any other driver's chances of winning the title this year, with 2nd-place George Russell (-81 points) the only other contender who may have a chance. So NASCAR is a 2- or 3-driver sprint to the 2026 title and the sensational Italian rookie looks like the new F1 king.
🏁2026 F1 Qatar Airways Azerbaijan Grand Prix Pick: Kimi Antonelli, Yes 42¢
Rams at Broncos on Sunday Night Football
QB Matt Stafford and the offseason darling Los Angeles Rams (1-1, 0-0 on Road) head to the Rocky Mountains to face QB Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos (1-1, 1-0 at Home) at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Denver on SNF (NBC, 8:20 ET/7:20 CT/5:20 PT).
In NFL Week 2, the Rams rebounded after a Week 1 defeat to the Niners in Australia by miniaturizing the Giants (28-6), while the Broncos also bounced back after a Week 1 setback (KC) to beat Jacksonville in their home opener here at elevation in the Mile High City (20-13).
At Kalshi in the Rams vs. Broncos Winner market, Los Angeles (56%) was the favorite over host Denver (44%), while traders at the popular PM were giving the Rams and Broncos a 2% chance of meeting in the Championship Game. The NFC team may be too old, with the AFC one too young.
📊Trading Thoughts: Looking at the 5 meetings in this interconference series, we find Puka Nacua and LA are an unbeaten 5-0 SU and 4-1-0 ATS, as these two teams don’t play much. This one may come down to whether or not the Denver defense can stop Los Angeles’s potent offense.
The site will be a factor as will the altitude, but GC Sean McVay the Rams have won the last 5 meetings and are 10-5 lifetime vs Denver, and their NFC and the NFC West (41-27 SU in 2025) are much stronger than the AFC and the AFC West (34-34 SU in 2025).
Denver (10.0 PPG, #28) has too much trouble scoring with Nix still maturing as a young QB in the fast-paced NFL. Stafford has RBs Kyren Williams and Blake Corem, WRs Nakua and Davante Adams, and TEs Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson, but the 38-year-old will not be running much.
🏈NFL Week 3 Sunday Night Football Game Winner Pick: Los Angeles Rams, Yes 56¢
Bears Hosting Eagles on Monday Night Football
Chicago (1-1, 0-1 at Home) welcome QB Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia (2-0, 1-0 on Road) to Soldier Field (Bermudagrass) in Chicago for the NFL Week 3 finale on Monday Night Football (TV—ABC, ESPN, Radio—NFL | Westwood One, 8:15 EDT/7:15 CDT/5:15 PDT).
In Week 2, RB DeAndre Swift and Chicago lost to the Vikings, 9-3 at Soldier Field, while RB Saquon Barkley and defending NFC East champions Philadelphia stayed unbeaten with a lucky 24-20 win over QB Cam Ward and the hapless Titans (30 points in 2 games) at Nashville.
At Novig, in the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears game, Philadelphia (68%) was the choice in early NFL trading, with the wounded Bears (32%) the underdogs on the Lakefront in the Windy City after QB Caleb Williams was injured in Week 2 and Tyler Bagent came in and also got hurt.
📊Trading Thoughts: Looking at the last 10 meetings in this NFC series, the Eagles hold a 7-3 SU edge while going 5-4-0 ATS over that span, but Da Bear have covered the last 2 in a row and won outright for the first time in 7 meetings (2013-2022) against this flying Philadelphia franchise.
Of note, the last 5 in a row have gone Under the Total, averaging 37.0 PPG. USC product Williams played in only one of those (2025), and he struggled, throwing for just 154 yards (17/36, TD, INT). The Total last year was 43.5; this year it’s 48.5. So Under-cushion? An auto-primetime under play?
The Eagles as an underdog may be a better trade. Why? In 2025, Philadelphia was 2-0-0 SU/ATS in 2025 in the Underdog role after going a profitable 4-0-0 SU/ATS the season before in 2024. That means 6 straight SU and ATS wins as an underdog, but injury money flipped the favorite here.
🏈NFL Week 3 Monday Game Winner Picks: Eagles, Yes 67¢, Under 41.5
➠”In the next special issue of The Prediction Report, we will headline the start of the 2026 MLB Playoffs, two Robinhood employees accused of insider trading, Kalshi keeps setting new records, and preview the 2026 NHL Regular Season opening nights, the Steelers and Browns on TNF in the NFL, and #14 Penn State at Northwestern as the Purple Cats open their new Ryan Stadium in Evanston on Friday night.”