Can Rubio Catch Vance as GOP Nominee in 2028?
All of the prediction markets offering trading in the 2028 Republican presidential nominee have had Vice President JD Vance ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, although it seems the latter has picked up momentum over the last 12 months and people seem to like him a bit more.
At politics-heavy PredictIt, ‘Will Vance and Rubio Both Run For President?’ the 'Yes' was trading at 45¢ on July 1 with the 'No' at 55¢, so possibly the Grand Old Party (GOP) suggests one stays or becomes vice president on the ticket in two years, although you know both will hate the notion.
At Polymarket in Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 trading, JD Vance (39%) had a 12% lead over Marco Rubio (27%), with Tucker Carlson at 3%, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, and Donald Trump Jr. all trading at 2%. That is no typo.
Kalshi, JD Vance (43%) had a slightly larger lead (14%) vs Marco Rubio (29%), with Ron DeSantis at 4.8%, Donald Trump Jr at 4.4%, and Tucker Carlson at 3.4%.
Are the numbers from these prediction markets a good barometer of who the Republicans might actually nominate to be our next president? Yes and No. The 2028 elections are still over two years away and a lot can, and will, happen before then. It’s hard to tell if Trump the Elder likes Vance.
But it’s also hard to tell if our loquacious president likes anything outside of himself, McDonald’s, Truth Social, and Vladimir Putin. The bottom line is that this is probably Vance’s race to lose, but his lack of popularity due to his smugness and Father Time may be the enemy.
Is Vance too young to be president? At 41, he’s half Trump’s age. John F. Kennedy was just 43 years old when he was sworn in back in 1961, but JD is certainly no JFK. And who will Trump throw his weighty support behind? Besides pushing himself for an unconstitutional third term, of course.
Prediction Markets: Newsom Still Dem’s Nominee
Like JD Vance in the above Republican nominee market for U.S. president, California Governor Gavin Newsom has been the leader since day one in the Democratic presidential nominee for 2028 at the bigger prediction markets throughout the United States.
At PredictIt, in the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028? market (July 1), Newsom was at 22%, followed by Jon Ossoff (10%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (11%), former VP Kamala Harris (10%), Pete Buttigieg (6%), Josh Shapiro (6%), Andy Beshear (5%), and JB Pritzker (2%).
Newsom sat at 21% at Kalshi, with Ossoff (14%), AOC (14%), Harris (8%), Emanuel (5%), and Buttigieg (5%) next. At Polymarket, Newsom (23.5%) had a similar lead over AOC (11%), Georgia Senator Ossoff (11%), Harris (6%), Josh Shapiro (5%), Buttigieg (4%), and comedian Jon Stewart (2%).
On June 22, the Wall Street Journal published a “poll of polls” of sorts, looking at the share of support for each potential candidate for the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary from the 15 most recent polls, and the numbers and narrative are a bit different from those for the PMs.
Former U.S. VP Kamala Harris led with 20%, followed by the 58-year-old Newsom (14%), former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Buttigieg (14%), progressive and socialist U.S. Representative (NY) Ocasio-Cortez (12%), Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro (6%), and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker (3%).
We are still too far from the 2028 races for candidates to formally declare, but those names we see in prediction markets and online sportsbooks don't necessarily mean they are running.
As far as potential Democratic candidates, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said for a few minutes that she wasn't entering the race for the White House before walking it back a little bit later. Once a politician, always a politician.
Reports: Meta Created a Prediction Market App
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Mark Zuckerberg has directed Meta Platforms to develop an experimental prediction-market app. The story said the company refers to the project as “Arena,” and it will be independent of the company's other social media platforms.
Deemed “experimental but a top priority,” Arena reportedly wouldn't involve the trading of any money but would reward users with points. This is like opening a zoo with stuffed animals. With Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and WhatsApp, Meta generates over 3 billion in daily revenue across its apps.
A PBS report said Meta plans to use AI to run the prediction market, which the story says is codenamed “Antwerp” and “FBForecast” and will have automatically generated questions produced by Meta's large language model Llama. The AI will also resolve the market results.
What could go wrong? Machines generating questions on real-world things to be “traded on” by real, live humans for fake credits given daily by the beast. Yawn. In 2020, Zuckerberg and the company released Forecast, a PM app, before shutting it down two years later, citing costs.
We will keep you updated on this, but it's hard to get excited about the Facebook crowd's opinions on things when nothing is really on the line.
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Which Man, Woman Will Win Love Island Season 8?
The reality TV show Love Island USA has gained popularity, and the Ariana Madix-hosted hit taped in Viseisei, Fiji, is now in its eighth season in the U.S. and airs on the Peacock streaming service, with new episodes airing on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday (9 EDT/8 CDT/6 PDT).
Last year on Love Island USA: Season 7, it was Amaya Espinal and Bryan Arenales who beat out runners-up Nicolas Vansteenberghe and Olandria Carthen to win the show, and they split the $100,000 prize, as all couples have in “The Choice” and “Split and Steal” decisions in the franchise.
The eighth season opened up on June 2, and at Polymarket, traders have been buying 'Yes' and 'No' contracts on the contestants in the men's and women's winners markets.
Traders in the 'Who Will Win Love Island USA Season 8? (Men)' market seem to think Bryce Dettloff (86%) will reign supreme on the fake island of love, followed by Sincere Rhea (3%), KC Chandler (3%), Zach Georgiou (2%), Gabriel Vasconcelos (1%), and Corbin Mims (1%).
And traders at Polymarket in the 'Who Will Win Love Island USA Season 8? (Women)' market logically think Dettloff's partner, Trinity Tatum (88%), will be the women's winner of the popular show, with Aniya Harvey (11%), Melanie Moreno (2%), and Kayda Bosse (1%) all following.
Dettloff and Tatum connected on their first date of the season, made it official - boyfriend and girlfriend - and have been connecting with fans all season, with fans dubbing them 'Brinity.' With these trading percentages, it would be hard to see any of the 34 islanders winning this time around.
The show is so popular that the episodes even have mentions markets to trade in at Polymarket. The Season 8 finale of Love Island USA is scheduled to air on Peacock on Sunday, July 12, 2026. The network has yet to announce a ninth season of the hit, but with the numbers it draws, expect one.
Will Amanda Batula and West Wilson Break Up?
The relationship between Amanda Batula and West Wilson on Bravo's hit show Summer House took many by surprise, especially considering the last episodes of the season had already aired with no clear clue of a relationship and Amanda still dealing with her ex-husband Kyle Cooke.
By the time the reunion show aired and the cast reunited with host Andy Cohen, it was already big news that West - who had a previous relationship with Ciara Miller, a close friend of Amanda's - and Batula were dating, and the two were spotted together kissing at a Yankees game.
So now the two are a thing, and everyone in the cast feels surprised when no one in any Reality TV show—especially on Bravo—should be surprised at what may happen in the real, real world.
Anyway, at Polymarket you can trade on whether or not Amanda and West will remain a couple for the remainder of this calendar year in the 'Will Amanda Batula and West Wilson Break Up Before 2027?' market. Is this a cynical market? That would depend on how you look at it or buy, I suppose.
The drama was apparently too much for Amanda, who has now reportedly said that she won't be back for Summer House: Season 11. This may be good for the 'No' breakup buyers (52%) in a market that has been pretty even since opening (Yes, 48%).
MrBeast Editor Kaptur Suspended From Kalshi
After noticing that MrBeast editor Artem Kaptur had a “near-perfect trading success” rate on Kalshi trades in markets involving YouTuber MrBeast, the prediction market platform suspended him and reported him to federal authorities for the suspicious trading activity.
It marked the first time that Kalshi has publicly revealed the results of an investigation into suspected insider trading. Kaptur allegedly traded around $4,000 on low-odds markets related to the streamer and his employer.
Kaptur, a resident of Greenville, North Carolina, was subsequently dismissed by Beast Industries. Investigators at Kalshi claim Kaptur was using his access to Jimmy Donaldson (MrBeast) and “non-public information” to try to make money trading on the popular platform.
Kalshi has a plethora of MrBeast markets, including 'Will MrBeast and Thea Booysen: Married This Year?' with the collective wisdom of the PM masses at Kalshi saying 'Yes' (73%) to the 28-year-old Donaldson marrying the also 28-year-old Booysen (TheaBeasty) in 2026.
Booysen hails from South Africa and is a published author, esports commentator, Twitch streamer, and respected content creator. No word yet on whether the couple does marry and eventually create a baby together that they will consider the human child 'content' or name it 'BabyBeast.'
PGA John Deere Classic Teed Off Thursday
The PGA John Deere Classic from TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, teed off on Thursday and runs through Sunday, weather permitting. Although not as high-profile a tournament as others on the tour, this event from the Land of Lincoln (CBS, ESPN+, Golf Channel, Paramount) is a lot of fun.
Last year, it was Brian Campbell who won the 2025 John Deere Classic, and he will return along with players like two-time champion Jordan Spieth, Ben Griffin, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Chris Gotterup, and amateur Jackson Koivun, who will be making his PGA debut.
➤ Trading Thoughts: The weather in Silvis, Illinois, will likely play a big part in this golf tournament, with rain and wind as Mother Nature's contribution to the party on the grass, like we just saw last weekend on Sunday in Round 4 of the surprisingly exciting Travelers Championship.
VSIN golf betting expert Wes Reynolds talked about the John Deere Classic tournament on the A Numbers Game show hosted by Gil Alexander on Monday, and the Indiana University grad said he likes the “quirky little event” in the Quad Cities and expected around a 20-under score to win.
⛳John Deere Classic Winner Picks: Chris Goterup, Yes 5.2¢, Tom Kim, Yes 2.2¢
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Coming Saturday
Inaugurated on July 4, 1974, the Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest has become a beefy part of the American fabric and another indicator that summer is here and you better have sunscreen, stay hydrated, and be prepared to pay massive air conditioning bills.
On Saturday (ESPN2, 12 EDT/11 CDT/9 PDT), throngs will gather near the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues in the Coney Island neighborhood of Brooklyn, NY, and site of the original Nathan's Famous. Sanctioned by Major League Eating (MLE), this annual event is serious stuff.
And it's not only the Super Bowl of hot dog eating, but the biggest event in the professional competitive eating sector, especially after the fame Takeru Kobayashi and living legend Joey Chestnut (6-1) gained from swallowing hot dogs and wet buns at the contest every July 4.
Last year, Chestnut ate 70.5 hot dogs and buns, and because he has become such a prohibitive favorite in the event, sportsbooks and prediction markets have had to come up with creative markets to gain attention (and dollars), knowing Chestnut will win by a million or something.
Thus, the 'Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest: Joey Chestnut vs. The World' market at Polymarket, where 93% have bought 'Yes' on the 42-year-old Fulton, Kentucky, native who now has 55 competitive eating records over 55 disciplines. What did you have for dinner?
Chestnut has won the Yellow Mustard Belt 17 times, and last year's 70.5 was another new record for the San José State University alumnus who won eight straight Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest championships (2007-2014). Volume at Polymarket in this market was $11.5 million.
Polymarket is also serving up the 'Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest: Total HDBs O/U ...' market, where traders can basically bet over or under on the total number of Hot Dogs + Buns (HDB) for all combined contestants in the men's and women's competitions on Saturday in The Big Hot Dog.
That total was at 704.8 (Yes on July 1 - yes, 0.8 of a HDB (Hot Dogs + Buns)) after opening up at 705 on June 29. The order book will be calling for mass heartburn in no time.
FIFA World Cup Round of 16 Wrap: Saturday, July 4
2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 play turns things up a notch on Saturday with two games that will give us the first two teams to make the quadrennial soccer tournament's quarterfinals.
The first fixture (Match 90) will see co-hosts Canada facing Morocco at NRG Stadium (Hellas Matrix Helix) in Houston, Texas (FOX, 1 ET/12 CT/10 PT), after both nations needed penalty shootout wins to eliminate South Africa and the Netherlands, respectively, in the Round of 32.
Soccer traders at Kalshi like CAF giants Morocco (72%) over Jonathan David and Canada (28%) “To Advance,” while in the Regulation Time Moneyline market, with three 90-minute possibilities, Morocco was trading at 54%, with Canada at 20%, and Regulation Time Tie at 28%.
The second fixture (Match 91) has Paraguay (10% to Advance, Kalshi) colliding with prediction markets' World Cup winner favorites France (90% to Advance) at Lincoln Financial Field (HERO Hybrid Grass) in Philadelphia (FOX, 3 ET/2 CT/12 PT) in a clash between teams from continents that have actually won the World Cup.
After La Albirroja's huge R32 upset of Germany - in another match needing a PK SO to determine a winner - Paraguay President Santiago Peña officially declared the following Tuesday (June 30) a national holiday. In the U.S., kids get snow gift days off. In Paraguay, kids get soccer upset days off.
➤ Trading Thoughts: Les Bleus have only lost one match in the last two years and have the kind of roster depth any coach or country would envy, with so many of the French players capable of scoring goals. Against defense-minded Paraguay, it may take longer than usual, but the goals will come.
⚽Saturday World Cup 2-Side Parlay Pick: Morocco—France
FOX Fires an NL Fourth of July Fastball at Fans
There is a full slate of MLB games on the schedule for Saturday, July 4, as the USA celebrates its 250th birthday with hundreds of thousands attending the 15 MLB games and millions trading and betting on our National Pastime. Hot dogs and baseball. It must be the Fourth of July.
And FOX is offering two National League games on Saturday night (8 EDT/7 CDT/5 PDT), with some getting the Mets-Braves NL East mismatch from Atlanta and others seeing the Cardinals-Cubs rivalry from Wrigley Field in Chicago, depending on where you live.
In the National League Champion market at Robinhood Predictions, Shohei Ohtani and the defending world champion Dodgers (39¢) are still the people's choice, with the Braves (14¢) and the Cubs (6¢) listed in the prediction market alongside the Brewers (16¢) and the Phillies (14¢).
➤ Trading Thoughts: Looking at the 2025 MLB Head-to-Head Grid, we find that Pete Crow-Armstrong and the host Cubs were 8-5 vs. the Cardinals, but St. Louis has won 2 of the 3 games this season in this famous NL Central rivalry. This one is best just watched to enjoy the ivy.
The Mets have been abhorrent on the road (17-27), with NY 2-8 in its last 10 and leaking oil like they always do about this time of summer. Bryce Harper and the Phillies are also making a run in the division, and are visiting a Kansas City team scuffling and now in last place in the AL Central.
⚾MLB Saturday 3-Team Parlay Pick: Braves—Phillies—Marlins-A’s Over
F1: Pirelli British Grand Prix Races on Sunday
George Russell won the Lenovo Austrian Grand Prix one week after Lewis Hamilton won the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix. Before that, rookie sensation Kimi Antonelli reeled off five straight wins after Russell won the 2026 F1 season opener at the Qatar Airways Australian Grand Prix.
At Polymarket, Kimi Antonelli (37%) leads the trading in the Pirelli British Grand Prix winner market on Sunday (Apple TV, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT), followed by George Russell (27%), Lewis Hamilton (15%), Max Verstappen (15%), Lando Norris (6%), Charles Leclerc (3%), and Oscar Piastri (3%).
➤ Trading Thoughts: Antonelli and his Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS teammate Russell are the drivers to bet on the F1 circuit this season, and winning back-to-back races and seeing British driver Russell (171 points) put some pressure on Antonelli (131 points) in the F1 standings seems logical.
Will a Brit win at the historic Silverstone Circuit (5.891 km) in Northamptonshire, England, UK, on Sunday? With Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris and others in the field for this ninth race of the season, there is a distinct possibility, Sir Speedy of Silverstone. Please fasten your seatbelts.
🏁F1 Pirelli British Grand Prix Trading Picks: George Russell, Yes, 28¢, Kimi Antonell, No, 65¢
NASCAR Cup Series Stops in Chicago on Sunday
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season resumes on Sunday evening with the running of the 267-lap eero 400 stock car race from the 1.52-mile (2.446 km) oval Chicagoland Speedway (Asphalt) in Joliet, Illinois (6 EDT/5 CDT/2 PDT, TV: TNT Sports, HBO Max; radio: MRN, SiriusXM).
At the Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, California, last weekend, Shane van Gisbergen snagged the checkered flag in his Chevrolet a week after we saw him win the pole at Naval Base Coronado in San Diego the race before, only to see Corey Heim (Toyota) stop a streak of Denny Hamlin wins.
Kalshi traders like Denny Hamlin (24%), Tyler Reddick (15%), Kyle Larson (12%), Christopher Bell (9%), Chase Briscoe (7%), Ryan Blaney (7%), William Byron (6%), Chase Elliott (6%), Ty Gibbs (6%), Ryan Blaney (5%), Carson Hocevar (4%), Brad Keselowski (4%), and Joey Logano (4%).
➤ Trading Thoughts: This is the return of the Chicagoland Speedway after COVID-19 forced the race to be canceled in 2020 before NASCAR took it off the 2021 schedule. This replaces the Grant Park 165, which was held in downtown Chicago and a logistical nightmare for the Windy City.
🏁NASCAR Cup Series eero 400 Winner Pick: Denny Hamlin, Yes 24¢, Shane van Gisbergen 1¢
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the Quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup with previews of Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday’s Knockout Stage games, Vladimir Putin’s plunging numbers at Polymarket, World launching a Solana prediction market inside Phantom, along with previews of MLB and WNBA games.