President Donald Trump and the White House welcomed some of the major players in Prediction Markets and Crypto, as well as regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), to the Roosevelt Room on August 19.

The meeting at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue was meant as a kickoff for the new “innovation advisory committee,” designed to advise the CFTC, the regulatory agency that oversees Prediction Markets and Crypto, among other very important things in our day-to-day lives.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, execs from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Nasdaq (NDAQ), CME Group (CME), the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, Paradigm, Patrick Witt—of Trump’s council of advisers for digital assets—were all in attendance.

Also attending were executives from Coinbase (COIN, Brian Armstrong), BitGo (Mike Belshe), Chainlink (Sergey Nazarov), Kraken (Arjun Sethi), Gemini (GEMI), Ripple, a16z, and Polymarket. Trump has made over $1.4 billion from Crypto last year, a massive conflict of interest, right?

In the meeting, Trump called on the U.S. Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, a vote coming up quickly in September, deeming it “very, very powerful, structured legislation, which will keep us ahead of China.” 

Polymarket traders were giving the CLARITY Act only a 22% chance of passing on August 20.

The event took place one day before the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee held a meeting on Thursday, August 20 in Washington, D.C. to allow leaders to discuss regulation in the cryptocurrency space, event contracts, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and their industries.​

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) held an Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on Thursday, August 20, in Washington, D.C., led by Chairman Michael Selig, with the 35-member Innovation Advisory Committee in attendance.

After attending the White House pow-wow on August 19, CFTC Head Michael Selig presided over the 3-hour meeting and laid out his three-part roadmap for the future of the prediction market industry. First up was changing the rules on what specific contracts the CFTC can deny.

“Contracts are at risk of rejection based on arbitrary whims of political biases, and DCM’s have been left operating in the dark,” Selig declared.

Selig’s second step is to modernize the framework for event contracts, with the third step being a proposal to amend how these DCMs (Designated Contract Markets) should list the contracts and provide better protection for traders. Now, it seems a bit like the wild, wild West?

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi co-CEO Luana Lopes Lara were at the meeting. Coplan, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple CEO Brian Garlinghouse, FanDuel President Christian Genetski, and DraftKings CEO Jason Robins are all advisory committee members.

Selig previously said regulators have driven blockchain, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Prediction markets (PMs) overseas, and that his CFTC is now "turning the page and charting a course for the new frontier of finance." We will see. Hopefully this PM space gets cleaner before it gets messier.

The month of August is quickly coming to an end, and it’s been a rough year for Cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) losing around 11.5% year-to-date (YTD) so far in 2026 as of August 23, trading near $77,251.13 as opposed to the trading price of over $87,000 back at the start of January.

Editor’s Note: When I initially wrote this story on August 18, BTC was near $64,576.52. While updating (Sunday, August 23) before publishing (Tuesday, August 25), the price of BTC at 12:23 EDT was $77,251.13, a $13,000 difference! Despite the bear market, it has been bullish lately.

(And I finally got to use an exclamation mark after 555,555 words and 11 months. Evolution?)

The most popular cryptocurrency may have peaked in the late Autumn of 2025 ($126,279.63, October 6), and since then it’s been a steady trickle down, with confidence eroded and the “HODL” mentality replaced by skepticism of anything growing too fast or seeming too good to be true.

Ethereum (ETH) was also off, trading at $2,446.75 on August 23 (12:30 EDT), down 17.59% year-to-date after opening the new year 2026 at around $3,000. The story was similar at Solana (SOL), which lost 23.13% of its value and is currently trading in the $95.41 range. Blech.

At Polymarket in the ‘What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in August?’ exchange, traders were backing ◭80,000 (62%), ⧩82,500 (34%), ◭85,500 (19%), and ◭87,500 (10%)—meaning a perceived sweet spot between $80,000 and $85,000. A year ago on August 25, 2025, BTC closed at $110,124.35.​

In the ‘What Price Will Ethereum Hit in August?‘ market, traders were on ◭2,500 (79%), ◭2,600 (52%), ⧩2,300 (47%), and ◭2,700 (31%), with that crypto’s perceived sweet spot between $2,500 and $2,800. Traders holding ⧩2,400 (100%) have already cashed in.​

And over in the ‘What Price Will Solana Hit in August?‘ market, traders were backing ◭100 (61%) and ⧩90 (61%), making the sweet spot here between $90 and $100. A year ago on August 25, 2025, Solana closed at a high of $187.28. Now, it’s trading around $95.​ You can make money here.

Anticipation of an Initial Public Offering (IPO) from Anthropic has fueled speculation of a debut bigger than the one we saw two months ago on June 12, 2026, from SpaceX (SPCX), which garnered $75 billion on Nasdaq, shattering the previous record held by Saudi Aramco on December 11, 2019.

At Polymarket, you can trade in the various date ranges (months) set for the coming ‘Anthropic IPO by __?’ where (by) December 31, 2026 (91%) reveals confidence of an IPO before 2027. Following on August 23 were October 31, 2026 (82%), October 15, 2026 (47%), September 30, 2026 (16%), and September 15, 2026 (2%).

You can also trade on what the Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap will be at Polymarket, with 1.75T-2.0T (17%), 1.5T-1.75T (16.7%), 2.0T-2.2T (16.5%), and 2.225T-2.5T (16%) all receiving relatively equal amounts of ‘Yes’ contract love from Crypto and Finance traders.

Dopamine levels will continue to rise with the fast-paced nature of 15-minute markets at Kalshi adding more markets to trade on after the Cryptocurrency 15-minute markets were a complete hit. Volume at the popular exchange the month it launched these, December 2025, was $54m.

The trading volume of cryptos like BTC Up or Down 15m, ETH Up or Down 15m, and SOL Up or Down 15m in these markets had risen to $4.8 billion in July 2026. Seeing the popularity and rapid trading activity in these markets, the popular PM platform Kalshi thought the more, the merrier.

In April, Kalshi opened its Commodities Hub, and now traders on the exchange can trade in 15-minute markets for precious metals like Gold 15 min and Silver 15 min, along with the now old-fashioned daily and weekly event contracts. We have all become damn digital bumblebees.

Kalshi filed with the CFTC on July 21, 2026, to offer these “perps”—perpetual futures contracts with no expiration dates —for precious metals Gold, Silver, and Platinum. The Gold 15-Minute exchange at Kalshi is one of the most liquid markets around with an impressive 3% median spread.

If you are into the 15-minute perp trade round and round the clock, Kalshi will not be opening the sunroof on 15-minute Weather Markets, but you can still trade on daily things like Highest Temperature, Rainfall, and that four-letter word, Snow. Remember him. I think he’s still up there.

As if 15-minute markets weren’t fast enough, Kalshi’s big competitor, Polymarket, serves up 5-minute Crypto markets (BTC-ETH-SOL-XRP-DOGE-HYPE-BNB) for the prediction market hummingbirds who think that the fucking bumblebees are way too slow and don’t trade enough.

Will Kalshi fight back with 1- or 2-minute markets? We kid? This industry is crazy on so many levels and covers everything in our universe as well as things not even in it, so expect continued growth, churn, and honey-making. The fees generated by all this trading are pure gold for the exchanges.

There’s more than $17 million trading volume already (August 18) at Polymarket in the NBA: 2027 Champions market, with the team that has been the favorite the last three seasons, the Oklahoma City Thunder, leading the pack at 22%, followed closely by the San Antonio Spurs at 21%.

In previous NBA seasons, the gap between the perceived elite teams in the Western Conference and the better teams from the Eastern Conference was larger, but with NBA Finals MVP Jalen Brunson leading the New York Knicks to the 2026 NBA Championship, the East may be back.

Traders are now giving the world-champion Knicks a 12% chance of repeating with their rivals, the Philadelphia 76ers checking in at 13% after signing living legend LeBron James to play ball with Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, and Tyrese Maxey in the City Of Brotherly Shove.

Teams in the midrange being given some shot at winning the NBA title this coming season are the Boston Celtics (5%), Toronto Raptors (4%), Minnesota Timberwolves (3%), Denver Nuggets (3%), Miami Heat (3%), Cleveland Cavaliers (3%), and the Detroit Pistons (3%).

The longshots in this market are the Los Angeles Lakers (2%), Indiana Pacers (2%), and Houston Rockets (2%), with the Washington Wizards, Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers, Atlanta Hawks, Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, and Charlotte Hornets all at 1%.

💡Trading Thoughts: With the Celtics seeing Brown sign with the 76ers and LeBron now there as well, this team should be good enough to endure any anticipated injuries to C Embiid with Maxey and Brown actually better at their craft now than King James. Don’t come at me, bro.

The Knicks are energized, so a Knicks-76ers East Final seems in the cards, with the Pacers getting Tyrese Haliburton back but likely rusty and less motivated than Boston and NY. In the West, it’s the same story, with OKC looking to restart what they think is a dynasty and the Spurs growing.

With Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper, SA could be back in the NBA Finals again, but the perception the West’s elite are better than the East’s elite took a massive hit thanks to a little man with a big heart named Jalen Brunson who put the Knickerbockers on his willing shoulders.

With LBJ, Embiid, Brown, and Maxey, Philly has some studs, and although the team lost G’s Kelly Oubre (IND) and Quentin Grimes (LAK), it shed itself of the Paul George contract and has great role guys like VJ Edgecombe (16.0 PPG), Dominick Barlow, and drafted Labaron Philon Jr. (ALA).

The 2026-27 NBA Regular Season will tip off in less than two months on Tuesday, October 20.

🏀NBA: 2027 Champion Pick: Philadelphia 76ers, Yes 13¢

Kylian Mbappé and Real Madrid play host to Mikel Oyarzabal and Real Sociedad at historic Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain on Wednesday night (ESPN+, ESPN Deportes, 3 ET/2 CT/12 PT) in the second fixture for both clubs in the new 2026-27 Spanish La Liga season.​

Polymarket traders make Jude Bellingham , Vini Jr., and Real Madrid big favorites (72%) over Real Sociedad (14%), with a Draw (Tie after 90 minutes + Injury Time) sitting at 19% in the Real Madrid CF – Real Sociedad de Fútbol market on August 23.​

💡Trading Thoughts: As expected, Thibaut Courtois and Real Madrid have dominated the series, going 4-1-0 in the last five and outscoring Txuri-Urdin (The White-and-Blues) 13-6 and winning the last three La Liga meetings (8 GF-2 GA). Sociedad has tallied just 1 goal in the last 2 at Madrid.

Real Sociedad’s last win vs Los Blancos was back on May 2, 2023 (RSO 2 RMA 0). Real Madrid added some nice names to an already loaded roster (Bernardo Silva, Marc Cucarella, Carlos Espi, Denzel Dumfries, Yan Diomande, Ibrahima Konaté) and kept the electric Vini Júnior as well.

New Manager José Mourinho may take some time to get used to finding the right players for the right matches, but with vet Courtois in goal and guys like Mbappé, Bellingham, Arda Güler, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Álvaro Carreras, Brahim Díaz, and Federico Valverde, he will do just fine.

⚽Spanish La Liga Wednesday Picks: Real Madrid, Yes, 72¢, Real Madrid -1.5, Yes 48¢

The NL serves up a great matchup with the NL East-leading Braves (75-55, 42-23 Home) meeting the NL West-leading and world champion Dodgers (79-51, 40-25 on Road) at Truist Park (Seashore Paspalum, Platinum TE) in Atlanta on Thursday (FS1, MLB.tv, Fubo, 7:15 ET/4:15 PT).

The two scheduled starting pitchers for Game 3 of the three-game series are Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61 ERA) and Braves LHP Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20 ERA). There is a chance these two Senior Circuit heavyweights will meet in the coming NL Playoffs.

At Polymarket in the 2027 MLB World Series Champions market, the Dodgers are favored to three-peat (32%), with the Braves (7%) tied for the traders’ fifth choice with the Rays (7%). The defending AL champion Yankees are second (11%), followed by the Milwaukee Brewers (9%).

💡Trading Thoughts: Both teams are fighting for one of the two first-round byes in the NL Playoffs, so this is a meaningful game and maybe more important to Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and the Dodgers, who have had trouble hitting and pitching of late and hit a 2-9 patch of black ice,

Sasaki has only faced Atlanta once, but it was a memorable one as the Japanese import notched his first win ever here at Truist Park on May 3, 2023, allowing 3 ER on 6 hits in 5 IP in a Dodgers victory. Saski started the season shaky, but has looked great in June, July, and now August.

Elder (2-1 vs LAD) was amazing in his last start vs LA, allowing 1 hit in 5 2/3 scoreless innings on May 10 at Chavez Ravine in a game where he whiffed 8. With Sasaki tasting success at Truist and in fine form and Elder confident vs. a now shaky Dodgers lineup, runs may be few and far between.

⚾MLB Thursday Night Totals Pick: Under 8

The 2026-27 Spanish La Liga season is as fresh as it gets, and on Thursday, Lamine Yamal and defending league champions Barcelona welcome Athletic Club to Spotify Camp Nou (GrassMaster Hybrid Grass) in Barcelona, Spain (ESPN+, ESPN Deportes, 3 ET/2 CT/12 PT).​

Defending league champions Barcelona landed a big fish, signing away MF extraordinaire Rodri (MCFC) to make a loaded Catalans roster even sexier. At Polymarket in the FC Barcelona–Athletic Club trade, FC Barcelona was at 71%, Athletic Club at 13%, with a Draw (Tie) sitting at 19%.​

💡Trading Thoughts: Looking at the L5 meetings between these two, captain Frenkie de Jong, Raphinha, Pedri, and Barcelona are 5-0-0 vs. Lehoiak (The Lions), outscoring them 15-0 along the way and winning by 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, and 5-0 final scorelines (not in that order).

Maybe 6-0 is on the horizon? Athletic Bilbao has scored just 2 goals since May (both in Friendlies) and hasn’t scored on Barça in exactly two years (August 24, 2024) in the Athletic–Barcelona Clásico. Bilbao didn’t score in the first meeting ever or the last one, and won’t score here.

⚽Spanish La Liga Thursday Picks: Barcelona -2.5, Yes 32¢, Both Teams To Score, No 50c

The 2026-27 German Bundesliga continues early-season play as Harry Kane and defending champions Bayern Munich face VfB Stuttgart at Allianz Arena (Hybrid Grass) in Munich, Germany, on Friday (2:30 ET/1:30 CT/11:30 PT).​

Defending league champions Bayern Munich have won the German Bundesliga title in the last two consecutive seasons and in 13 of the last 14, and 20 times since the year 2000, behind veteran GK Manuel N,Neuer, who also stars for the German national team and just turned 40 in March.​

Stuttgart is suffering a big blow with striker Jovan Milošević reportedly close to signing an €8m move to Sporting Braga in Portugal. At Polymarket in the FC Bayern München–VfB Stuttgart exchange, Bayern Munich was at 77%, VfB Stuttgart at 15%, with a Draw (Tie) trading at 12%.

💡Trading Thoughts: In the last 5 series meetings, defending Bundesliga champions Bayern are a perfect 5-0-0 vs. Die Roten (The Reds), outscoring Stuttgart 17-4 in the process in five games, all with 3 or more goals (BAY 3-0, BAY 4-2, BAY 5-0, BAY 2-1, BAY 3-1).

The two games in the league last season had 5 and 6 goals, with the 6 coming at home in Munich with Kane scoring once (he had a hat trick in the game at Stuttgart). That means looking at the Over (average 5.5 in the Bundesliga LY) and Kane in ‘Anytime Goalscorer’ Props as well.

⚽German Bundesliga Friday Picks: Bayern Munich -1.5, Yes 58¢, Over 3.5, Yes, 61c

The 2026-27 French Ligue 1 season comes in like fresh baguettes, and before you dismiss this European league as the least popular of the big five—English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, and French Ligue 1—think again, mon ami.​

Defending league champions Paris Saint-Germain won the UEFA Champions League the last 2 years, and Les Parisiens won 5 trophies last season and have a loaded roster with Ousmane Dembélé, Achraf Hakimi, Vitinha, Désiré Doué, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Bradley Barcola.​

On Friday, PSG begins the defense of its French Ligue 1 title as it faces host Lille at Decathlon Arena (AirFibr Hybrid Grass) in Villeneuve-d'Ascq, Nord (2:45 ET/12:45 PT). At Polymarket in the Lille OSC–Paris Saint-Germain FC match, PSG were at 64%, Lille at 39%, with a Draw at 27%.​

💡Trading Thoughts: In the last 5 series meetings, defending European champions PSG are an unbeaten 4-1-0 vs Les Dogues (The Mastiffs), outscoring Lille 14-4 in the process, with the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) (‘Yes’) Prop going a profitable 4-1 in those recent meetings.

Lille (18-7-9, 52 GF-37 GA) is a good club that finished 3rd in the 2025-26 French Ligue 1 table and qualified for the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League, but Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Hákon Haraldsson, and Lille may be losing their star DMF Ayyoub Bouaddi to Manchester City.

PSG (24-4-6, 74 GF-29 GA) has the depth to field two very good starting XIs, and you know this club has expectations of winning the league again and making a run at a third straight UCL crown, which would put PSG in with the greatest European teams in history. This one may be challenging.

⚽French Ligue 1 Friday Picks: Paris Saint-Germain, Yes 58¢, Both Teams To Score, Yes, 55¢​

Erling Haaland and Manchester City are in London on Friday night to face Jean-Philippe Mateta, Ismaïla Sarr, Daniel Muñoz and Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park (GrassMaster) in English Premier League Matchweek 2 play (3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).​

In its last 5 matches heading into the league opener, Crystal Palace was an impressive 4-1-0 (11 GF-6 GA), but these were Summer Club Friendlies. MCFC was a depressing 1-3-1 (6 GF-8 GA) heading into the Citizens’ Premier League lidlifter against AFC Bournemouth on August 23.​

In the last 5 H2H meetings, the Citizens are 3-1-1 (13 GF-5 GA) with two straight Clean Sheets in EPL play last season (3-0, 3-0). At Kalshi in the Crystal Palace vs Manchester City three-way market, Manchester City was trading at 62%, Crystal Palace at 19%, and a Draw at 21%.​

💡Trading Thoughts: City has a new manager and also added some new names over the summer, but lost Rodri to Barcelona in a signing many saw coming, creating a huge need for a new skipper for Enzo Maresca and club brass at The Etihad. Signee Elliot Anderson may help some.

The Citizens have shown defensive lapses, a weakness that prevented this storied club from winning the EPL last season and going farther in the UEFA Champions League. A healthy Jeremy Doku, a fluid Foden, and a prolific Haaland—as always—are what MCFC will need.​

Because the defense has been shaky, this is a home fixture for the Glaziers in South London, and Palace has scorers like Mateta (12 goals), Sarr (8 goals), and Muñoz (4 goals, 5 assists). Looking at the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) ‘Yes’ Prop seems like a wise approach, as does the Over at 2.5.​

⚽English Premier League Friday Picks: MCFC-CP Over 2.5, Yes 58¢ , Both Teams To Score, Yes, 56c

 ➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, the 2026-27 College Football season kicks off, the Heisman Trophy winner market, another Emmys category preview and handicaps of the NFL Rushing Leaders, PGA Tour Championship, the Daytona Coke Zero Sugar 400, and game previews for MLB’s Red-Sox-Yankees, EPL’s Arsenal-Aston Villa, and the NCAAF Aer Lingus Classic, which opens the season up from Ireland.”