PGA’s Third Major Will Tee Off at Shinnecock Hills
The third major of the Professional Golfers’ Association (PGA), the 2026 US Open, will begin play weather permitting at the Shinnecock Golf Club in Southampton, New York on Thursday as American JJ Spaun (#9 ranked PGA) looks to defend his title (NBC, USA Network, Peacock).
Irishman Rory McIlroy (#2) won The Masters and the Green Jacket for a second straight year earlier this year at Augusta while Englishman Aaron Rai (#13) took the PGA Championship at Aronimink in the year’s second major. The British Open (The Open Championship) tees off July 16.
Last year saw many big underdogs win some of the PGA tournaments in Winter and Spring, and this year has seen two chaps from the UK winning the first two majors with the #1-ranked golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler hasn’t won a tournament since January (The American Express).
The PM volume of the first two PGA majors has been amazing. In The Masters Champion, Kalshi had $460,271,755 in trading while Polymarket did $126,018,040. In the PGA Champion Winner market, Polymarket saw $8,982,129 while Kalshi generated $33,450,801 in volume on the event.
95% Of SpaceX Profits Are Already Gone
By the time a company goes public, 95% of all profits have already been made.
The insiders buy at $20 billion.
You buy at $1.75 trillion.
That's the SpaceX math.
But there's one exception.
A small, publicly traded company sitting directly in the path of this $1.75 trillion event — still priced like Wall Street hasn't noticed.
It powers the one piece of infrastructure Musk's Colossus can't operate without.
The insiders haven't touched it yet.
Dylan Jovine is naming it today — free.
2026 US Open Trading Preview, Odds and Picks
Top-ranked Scottie Scheffler has been scuffling this Spring, and the American can’t seem to play four consistent rounds of golf and was blaming his poor caddy at the Memorial Tournament where he finished 8 strokes behind the winner (T-12) despite finishing with two nice rounds (68-71).
So he’s now a ‘No’ contract until further notice and that’s cool as he is overpriced anyway. This is not 2025. Or 2024. This is 2026. Blaming your caddy is like blaming the umpire or the pit crew or the Virgin Mary when you are the damn millionaire pro athlete with the golf club in your hands.
Before the US Open tee off, Golf traders at Kalshi liked top-ranked Scottie Scheffler (14%), Rory McIlroy (9.4%), Jon Rahm (5.7%), Cameron Young (4.5%), Tommy Fleetwood (3.9%), Xander Schauffele (3.7%), Bryson DeChambeau (3.4%), Ludvig Åberg (3.4%), and Matt Fitzpatrick (3%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Anyway, we have new blood we like on the tour like American Wyndham Clark (PGA Rank #34), who was just 1 stroke off the lead at The Jack (67-75-68-67) and may have won if not for a really miserable Friday. Clark also won THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson two weeks ago.
Besides University of Oregon product Clark, Tommy Fleetwood has been solid, and also could have won in Dublin, Ohio with a R1 67 and a R4 68 sandwiching 73-70 which left him 2 strokes off the lead in the end. But at the RBC, both had poor Round 4s (70) after playing well Rounds 1-3.
And 30-year-old South Korean Si Woo Kim (-5, T-10) has been the most consistent golfer on the PGA Tour, ranking #1 in Cuts Made (16) and Top 10 Finishes (8) and #3 in Driving Accuracy (69.8%) ➤Trading Picks: Tommy Fleetwood, Yes 3.9¢, Matt Fitzpatrick, Yes 3.4¢, Si Woo Kim, Yes 1.9¢
While the US Open gets underway this week, one AI investment opportunity is drawing serious attention from traders who aren't buying the bubble narrative.
Forget what the media says about an AI bubble, and forget the market swings…
Jeff Brown says we’re on the edge of a $100 trillion boom, thanks to a breakthrough tech hidden in a dying coal town in Wyoming… it sounds crazy, until you see what he uncovered. But there may not be much time to get in on this tech before everyone catches on.
On to the prediction markets legal and regulatory news dominating the headlines this week.
George Santos Investigated for Alleged Kalshi IT
Proving there is no off-switch on stupidity, former Congressman George Santos (R-NY) is reportedly being investigated for alleged insider trading on Kalshi by the Department of Justice (DOJ) in a market involving his attendance at the State of the Union address in Washington, DC.
Santos had made indications he would be attending the SOTU, then posted on X “Watching SOTU from the airport wasn’t part of the plan.” So anyone trusting what Santos previously said about attending the event had the rug pulled out from them buying ‘Yes’ contracts for the annual event.
NPR reported Santos—pardoned by President Trump for wire fraud and identity theft—bet on himself not attending ‘No’ and allegedly made tens of thousands of dollars profit from his intended deception, saying he had missed a flight.
Ironically, Santos had a paid relationship with Polymarket, but the popular New York City-based prediction market cut ties with Santos on June 3. So Santos allegedly bet against himself on Kalshi on attending the SOTU on Feb 24 while telling others he’d attend, then lost a gig with Polymarket.
With insider trading scandals making headlines in prediction markets, another market with a hard deadline is drawing attention from investors this month.
The 200-to-1 Gold Default Hits July 31st
Imagine an airline sold the same seat to 200 different passengers... and just prayed 199 of them wouldn't show up at the gate.
That is the exact "math glitch" currently sitting at the heart of the global gold market.
According to recent data, there are now 200 paper claims for every 1 physical ounce of gold left in the vaults.
For 55 years, the bankers got away with it…
But on July 31st, a 90-year-old law effectively "calls the bluff."
When those 200 people show up for that 1 seat, the price of the "seat" (physical gold) doesn't just go up—it teleports.
I've identified one company sitting on $431 Billion worth of metal that "fixes" this glitch for investors.
While the stock trades for a fraction of that value today, the July 31st deadline changes everything.
Back to the PM regulatory landscape — the CFTC is now ready to make its move.
CFTC Proposal to Regulate PMs is Expected Soon
After an initial draft was cleared by the White House, the often scrutinized Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now ready to offer up its proposal to regulate Prediction Markets (PMs) with the exact text release to the world and the public expected soon.
The CFTC is expected to confront a number of controversial things in this still evolving marketplace like insider trading and the offering or certain event contracts and categories involving death, war, terrorism, or anything deemed morally corrupt.
These issues have been commented on in the Advanced Notice of proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) that recently ended its public comment period on April 30, 2026.
Illinois Continues Hostility to Bettors, Traders
You can bet sports legally in Illinois, but you will be taxed until you bleed, making it hard for both operators and sports gamblers in the land of Lincoln to profit or wager without seeing small pieces of their pies chomped by the Feds in every transaction. Welcome my son, welcome to the machine.
The taxation grind was so bad that DraftKings shut down its retail sportsbook in Chicago at Wrigley Field—home of the 2016 World Champion Chicago Cubs—after operating for two years at the historic corner of Clark and Addison in Wrigleyville. The restaurant and bar will remain open.
"While we are proud of what we have built alongside the Chicago Cubs, we are taking a more focused approach to where we invest in the state,” said Boston-based DraftKings of its experiment on the North Side of the Windy City. Sportsbooks pay 20-40% in taxes in the state of Illinois.
“The cost of operating in Illinois, including its high tax structure, makes it more difficult to justify continued investment in a standalone retail sportsbook. We remain committed to serving our mobile sportsbook customers," DK said. Blah, blah, blah. The taxes killed you. Just say it brother.
Illinois sportsbooks also paid 25¢ on the first 20 million bets made online after July 1, 2025 and then 50¢ for every wager after that. Ouch. Because of these hard taxes from a state always known for taxing, after that, DraftKings and FanDuel both added 50¢ fees onto every bet made in Illinois.
Now prediction markets will be punished with the same Land of The Taxman bureaucracy and the same increase in taxes over time (tiered-tax rates), as introduced in the specific provisions from the recent Illinois Senate Bill 3019 in the new approved Illinois $56 billion budget.
For the first 5 million trades on prediction markets in Illinois, operators will be required to pay 1.75% with that tiered-tax increasing to a business-breaking 3.5% after 5 million wagers. So welcome to the Machine. You are free to eat the hot dogs as long as you pay $5 for the mustard.
Boxing Weight Class Futures Props at Kalshi
At Kalshi you can bet special Boxing Futures markets on who will be the World Boxing Council (WBC) champion and title-holder on January 1, 2027 in the various weight classes. Although not very fluid markets, they are still fun to look at and see if there may be any holes worth penetrating.
The prediction market is also serving up a ‘Yes-No Prop', ‘Will Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua Fight This Year?’ in its Events menu with the ‘Yes’ at 56% and the ‘No’ at 44% in a minimal $2,950 volume. Here are the favorites in each category listed and the current percentages on June 8:
➤WBC Flyweight (112 pounds)—Galal Yafai, Joselito Velázquez 48%
➤WBC Bantamweight (118 pounds)—Michael Angeletti 52%
➤WBC Featherweight (126 pounds)—Michael Conlan, Nick Ball 49%
➤WBC Lightweight (135 pounds)—Lamont Roach 77%
➤WBC Welterweight (147 pounds)—Conor Benn, Souleymane Cisskho 48%
➤WBC Middleweight (160 pounds)—Sebastian Fundora 95%
➤WBC Cruiserweight (200 pounds)—Jai Opetaia 99%
➤WBC Heavyweight (unlimited)—Oleksandr Usyk 25%
RING MAGAZINE TOP 10 BOXERS POUND FOR POUND (P4P)
Premier Lacrosse League Futures Up at Kalshi
Kalshi also has Futures odds for the Premier Lacrosse League (PLL), which started back on June 1, 2019 and sees 8 teams play for 10 weekends with a PLL All-Star Break played after 5 games at the midway point of the Regular Season.
The New York Atlas are the defending PLL champions, defeating the Denver Outlaws, 14-1 in the 2025 PLL Championship where Jeff Teat was named the Championship Game MVP after scoring 6 points. Teat’s teammate Connor Shellenberger was the 2025 PLL MVP and the leading scorer.
In early trading at Kalshi in the Premier Lacrosse League Championship Winner market, the California Redwoods (59%) were the favorites followed by the Denver Outlaws (24%), Philadelphia Waterdogs (19%), Maryland Whipsnakes (15%), New York Atlas (12%), Carolina Chaos (11%), Boston Cannons (5%), and Utah Archers (4%).
➤Trading Thoughts: 2025 Golden Stick Award winner Shane Knobloch, Austin Kaut, Charlie Bertrand and the Carolina Chaos got off to a 3-2 start this season, with only the Maryland Whipsnakes (3-1) and California Redwoods (2-1) sporting better records in the PLL standings.
The defending champion New York Atlas and Matt Campbell, Asher Nolthing and the Boston Cannons both started 1-3 with the Utah Archers, Philadelphia Waterdogs, and Denver Outlaws all starting 2-2.
With MF Brian Tevlin and attacker Andre McAdorey, the Redwoods deserve to be the favorites (for now), but keep your eyes on the Chaos (55 PF-60 P) and the Whipsnakes (51 GF-37 GA, +14 GD) who have beaten the Redwood 5 straight times. ➤PLL Winner Picks: California Redwoods, 17¢, Maryland Whipsnakes 15¢
4 Potential WC Golden Ball Underdog Winners
We looked at the World Cup: Golden Boot Winner in an earlier edition of The Prediction Report, so now let’s try to serve up four underdog ‘Yes’ picks from Polymarket for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Award Winner, given to the most outstanding player in the iconic tournament.
Whereas the Golden Boot goes to the player (or players) who end up with the most goals in the World Cup, the Golden Ball rewards overall play, including defense, assists, as well as goals. France’s Kylian Mbappé won the 2022 Golden Boot and is the traders’ favorite to repeat in 2026.
In the last FIFA World Cup held in Qatar in 2022, Argentina’s Lionel Messi won the Golden Ball for a second time in his national career for La Seleccion, the only player to achieve that feat and the ageless magician has to be considered a candidate for a third Golden Ball (7%, traders’ 5th choice).
The Golden Glove is awarded to the Goalkeeper who performed the best for his team in the World Cup. Polymarket also has markets open for the Silver Ball Winner and the Bronze Ball Winner.
In the new World Cup: Golden Ball Winner at Polymarket, Spain’s Lamine Yamal (11%) is the favorite slightly ahead of the aforementioned Kylian Mbappé (10%), England’s Harry Kane (9%), France’s Michael Olise (5%), Argentina’s Lionel Messi (7%) and Portugal’s Bruno Fernandes (7%).
Lionel Messi, Argentina
Lionel Messi (8¢ Polymarket) is the best soccer player in the world and maybe the best ever, with eight Ballons d'Or, six European Golden Shoes, and those two previous Golden Balls. With scorers like Julián Alvarez and Lautaro Martínez, he could make it a third one at the age of 39.
Michael Olise, France
Also a decent Golden Boot candidate (5%), Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise (8c) can score as well as feed tasty Les Blues attackers like Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola, and Marcus Thuram. Olise could have played for the Three Lions and England, but chose France.
Bruno Fernandes, Portugal
Bruno Fernandes (7¢) has been in great form of late and with HC Roberto Martinez and Portugal boasting its best WC roster ever with studs like Cristiano Ronaldo, Vitinha, João Cancelo, Bernardo Silva, João Neves, Pedro Neto, and Gonçalo Ramos, he should rack up goals and assists.
Vitinha, Portugal
Fernandes’ MF teammate for Selecção das Quinas (Team of the Quincunces), Vitinha (4¢), just came off winning another UEFA Champions League title with Paris Saint-Germain and this electric CMF from Vila das Aves is a big reason why Portugal can win its first ever World Cup (10%, 9.8¢).
⚽>Longshot 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball Winner Pick: Bukayo Saka, England 2¢
France Opens WC Play vs Senegal in NJ on Tuesday
World Cup preflop co-favorites France open up Group I play against CAF members Senegal at MetLife Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Tuesday (FOX, FOX One, TELE, PEACOCK, Fubo, 9 EDT/8 CDT/7 MDT/6 PDT)
At Limitless Exchange, France are the favorites (66%) with Senegal underdogs (21%) and a Draw priced at 13% after 90 minutes of play. France was priced -245 at online sportsbook DraftKings with the Lions de la Téranga trading at +600 with the Draw +320 and the Total at 2.5 (Under -120).
Michael Olise had all three goals as France defeated Northern Ireland (3-1) in a friendly on June 8 in a tuneup for the World Cup in Villeneuve-d'Ascq after losing to Ivory Coast (2-1) in its last match on June 4 in Nantes, Les Bleus first loss in a year. Best lose Friendlies and not in the WC.
➤Trading Thoughts: France is absolutely loaded, and it’s hard to see Senegal creating many quality scoring opportunities with Les Bleus likely to have 75-80% of the Time of Possession. This looks like a 3-0 to 4-0 final scoreline and trading in the alternate goal markets may be wise.
Why? France have enough attack talent for three squads: Golden Ball and Golden Boot candidates Mbappé and Olise, B2B UEFA CL champion PSG studs Dembélé, Barcola, Zaïre-Emery, and Doué, as well as Chekri (MCFC), Tchouaméni (Real Madrid), Aklouche (Monaco), and Kanté (Fenerbahçe).
Toss in Serie A standouts Rabiot (AC Milan), Thuram (Inter), and Koné (Roma), and it seems like cheating. And the defense isn’t bad either, but who needs defense when the opponent can never get the sheep’s bladder? ➤ Picks: France, Yes 66.2¢, Over 3.5, Yes 49.2c , BTTS No 56¢, (Limitless)
England and Croatia Meet in Dallas on Wednesday
Group L play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup resumes on Wednesday with Harry Kane and England facing Luka Modrić and Croatia in a massive Group Stage fixture at AT&T Stadium (Hellas Matrix Turf with Helix Soft Top) in Arlington, Texas (FOX, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, 4 EDT/3 CDT/1 PDT).
In the World Cup winner market, Jude Bellingham and England were the trader’s third choice at 11% while Croatia is a longshot at 1% (0.9¢, Yes). The two teams made it to the 2018 FIFA World Cup Semifinals in Moscow where Croatia won a thriller, 2-1 in Extra Time.
At Polymarket in the England vs Croatia match on Wednesday, traders have made the Three Lions big 54% favorites over Croatia (20%) with a Draw trading at 26%. The Total (goals) for this match was 2.5 (Over 45¢, Under 55¢) with the Both Teams To Score? prop Yes at 48¢ with the No at 53¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: England is happy with its loaded roster with guys like Kane, Morgan Rogers, Declan Rice, Jordan Henderson, Marcus Rashford, and Bukayo Saka. But can HC Tom Tuchel get this team to jell? England hasn’t made it past the Quarters in any tourney held outside of Europe.
Croatia can never be taken for granted and the Kockasti (Checkered Ones) have some really good footballers in the ageless playmaker Modrić (197 caps, 28 goals), Luka Vušković, Ivan Perišić (153 caps, 38 goals), Andrej Kramarić (115 caps, 36 goals), and Mario Pašalić (84 caps, 11 goals).
This is easily the most important game in Group L, but even if one loses, both should make the Knockout Stage. England never seems to click on offense despite the talent and there is a perceived value in Croatia who can win this one. ➤Trading Pick: Croatia 20¢
Co-Hosts México Play South Korea on Thursday
Raúl Jiménez and 2026 FIFA World Cup tri-hosts México welcome South Korea without the vuvuzelas to historic Estadio Akron (Grass) in Guadalajara, México for a huge Group A game on Wednesday (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, FUBO, 4 EDT/3 CDT/1 PDT).
Neither México (2%, Polymarket) nor South Korea (<1%) have won the FIFA World Cup, and as a matter of fact, no nation from the continent of North America (CONCACAF) or from Africa
(CAF) has won this tournament with only teams from Europe and South America doing so.
At Robinhood, México (WWWDD) is the traders’ choice (50%), with the Bafana Bafana of South Africa (WDLDL) at 23% and a Draw at 29% two days before the significant Group Stage match in Guadalajara.
➤Trading Thoughts: Gilberto Mora and México have been great in 2026, going an unbeaten 6-3-0 in 9 Friendlies (14 GF-2 GA) registering 5 Clean Sheets and allowing just 2 goals for HC Javier Aguirre in a thick schedule leading up to the WC. The Portugal and Belgium Draws impressed.
Chicharito (Javier Hernández ) is gone for El Tri but 40-year-old Goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa (152 caps) and his mane of hair are still on the roster along with some real talents like Raúl Jiménez (124 caps, 45 goals), Orbelín Pineda (92 caps, 52 goals), and Santiago Giménez (47 caps, 6 goals).
Son Heung-min (144 caps, 56 goals), Bae Jun-ho, and Lee Kang-in (47 caps, 11 goals), Lee Jae-sung (105 caps, 15 goals), Hwang Hee-chan (79/17), Cho Gue-sung (45/12) and the Tigers of Asia are 2-0-2 (6 GF-5 GA) in 2026 but and a bit beat up but still loaded. ➤Trading Pick: South Korea 23¢
USMNT Facing Australia in WC in LA on Friday
After facing Paraguay in its 2026 FIFA World Cup and Group D opener, the United States Men’s National Team (USMNT) will play Australia at Lumen Field (FieldTurf CORE) in Seattle, Washington on Friday afternoon (FOX, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
Located in the Emerald City’s SoDo neighborhood on the site of the former Kingdome, Lumen Field is the home of the NFL champion Seattle Seahawks and it is renowned for its “12th man” presence and nasty decibel levels equal to large airplanes and Yoko Ono’s diarrheatic vocals.
Group D is the most wide-open group in this Extra Large World Cup and Christian Pulisic and the co-host US (#16 FIFA) need to at least make the KO Stage to avoid fear and loathing. A loss to the Socceroos (#27)—who couldn’t score in Friendlies against VEN, COL, MEX—would be a problem.
At Kalshi, traders were backing the USA (62%) over Australia (18%) with a Draw at 22%. DraftKings had the USMNT as -120 favorites in the three-way market in the Evergreen State with underdogs Australia at +340 and a Draw at +295 with the Total (goals) set at 2.5 under -125.
➤Trading Thoughts: New HC Mauricio Pochettino, Captain Tim Ream and The Stars and Stripes (WWLLW) can get goals from attackers like Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Giovanni Reyna, and Christian Roldan and have a solid D with Ream, Sergiño Dest, young Alex Freeman (21) and GK Matt Turner.
Australia (WLLWWLL) is led by Jackson Irvine, Nestory Irankunda, and Jordan Bos and opened Group D play with an upset of Türkiye at BC Place in Vancouver. The USA plays Türkiye next, while the Aussies face Paraguay, both Thursday, June 25. ➤Totals Trading Pick: Over 2.5 goals, Yes 50¢
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we will look at Underdog Sports making a name for itself in the PM space, and gearing up for the upcoming NFL season, Kalshi asking for employment information for trading in some markets, and trading previews of the 2026 FIFA World Cup games Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.