Stanley Cup Final skates Tuesday: Kalshi has Canes at 59%

The puck will drop on the 2026 Stanley Cup Final on Tuesday with the Eastern Conference champion Carolina Hurricanes (53-22-7) hosting the Western Conference champion Vegas Golden Knights (39-16-17) to see who will be the lucky new holder of Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Carolina earned the homeice advantage for the best-of-7 series by having the better Regular Season record, and a close look at VGK’s record shows this team was below .500 at Home (20-21), on the Road (19-22), and would have been 4th or 5th place in every other division on the league.

Last year, the Florida Panthers defeated the Edmonton Oilers for a second straight year in the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, so we will be crowning a new champion. Captain Mark Stone and VGK can win for the second time in its still relatively new franchise history after icing the Panthers in 2023.

Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner and the Golden Knights (12-4 Postseason) got here by beating Utah in Round 1 (4-2), Anaheim in Round 2 (4-2), and the shocked and swept Colorado in the WCF (4-0) as G Carter Hart (12-4, 2.22 GAA) and the team improved to 19-4-1 under new HC John Tortorella.

Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven, Seth Jarvis and the Hurricanes (12-1 Postseason) made the Stanley Cup Final by sweeping the Flyers (4-0) and Sabres (4-0) before finishing off the Canadiens last Friday in the ECF (4-1). VGK swept Carolina in the Regular Season (VGK 4-1 CAR, VGK 6-3 CAR).

>All games start at 8 EDT/7 CDT/6 MDT/5 PDT | * If necessary

In the US, you can watch the 2026 Stanley Cup Final on ABC while in Canada, you can catch the series on Sportsnet, CBC and TVA Sport, Satellite radio provider SiriusXM (Channel 91) is the NHL’s official radio broadcaster and you can also catch the action there if you have a subscription.

With the puck dropping tonight in Raleigh, one opportunity tied directly to the biggest market event of June deserves your attention before the madness begins.

Now, on to how the prediction markets are pricing tonight's game and the series.

The first NHL Stanley Cup Final since 2019 to not feature a team from the state of Florida, the 2026 Stanley Cup Final sees Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal, and the Hurricanes battling the Golden Knights. In Game 1, hosts Carolina at the Lenovo Center (ABC, 8 EDT/5 PDT)..

At the prediction market Robinhood, traders have made the Carolina Hurricanes (59%) solid favorites to win the Stanley Cup over Pavel Dorofeyev, Ivan Barbashev, and the Vegas Golden Knights (42%) who, like the Knicks in the NBA Finals, are playing their best at the perfect time.

On Tuesday in Stanley Cup Final Game 1 in Raleigh, the Hurricanes were trading at 58% with the Golden Knights at 42%. Kalshi also had Thursday’s Game 2 (CAR 55%, VGK 45%) and Saturday’s Game 3 (CAR 54% VGK 46%) up, something you won’t see at most conventional sportsbooks.

➤Trading Thoughts: Both teams head in here red-hot with Carolina winning 12 of its 13 NHL Playoff games and outscoring opponents 42-21 in a constant assault on the net while VGK went 12-4, sweeping their rivals, the mighty Avalanche in the WCF in a shocking result.

At first glance, it seems the series price is imbalanced as both of these teams are very even and this should be a great series and possibly need all 7 games to see who lifts the Cup. So the lean or logic would be to take even contracts on VGK early and then see if they can steal Game 1 or Game 2.

The bigger thought is that there will be goals in this series and a Total of 5.5 isn’t enough for the frenzied pace the Canes should set. Goalies Andersen and Hart have been brilliant but will be peppered by pucks for the next two weeks. ➤Trading Pick: Game 1 Over 5.5, Yes 53¢

Click here to trade on the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Final games and props at Kalshi

While the Stanley Cup race heats up, another deadline-driven market is drawing serious attention from investors this month.

On to the prediction markets regulatory and legal news from the past week.

In the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner, Golden Knights Mitch Marner (45%) is way ahead of the others being traded in that NHL exchange for that award given to the player who has done the most for his team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. And the former Maple Leafs star has excelled.

In leading VGK to the SC, Marner has registered 21 points by scoring 7 goals and adding 21 assists as the Golden Knight outscore opponents 58-35 to miraculously get to this point. Why a miracle? Two things. A late season coaching change and the Avalanche were the best team all season.

Following Marner in trading on May 31 at Polymarket were Hurricanes C Seth Jarvis (10.3%), Marner’s teammate Jack Eichel (5%), and Hurricanes star Sebastian Aho (4%). Poor Frederik Andersen and Carter Hart saw no event contract love and both Goalies really need to be listed.

➤Trading Thoughts: The market imbalance from Marner and Jarvis’Yes’s’ and absence of Carolina players like Logan Stankoven, Taylor Hall and G Frederik Andersen (11-1, 1.44 GAA Postseason) makes me hesitant to offer sage advice here with the NHL Stanley Cup Final not even started.

This award is supposed to go to the player who has helped his club the most in the Postseason, but it usually ends up going to a player on the team that actually wins the Stanley Cup, with the rare exception like two seasons ago when Connor McDavid nabbed the honors for the Oilers.

Besides Marner, HC Tortorella and G Hart have been just as instrumental in this nice run by the Golden Knights, a team that finished with the 7th most Wins (39) in the Western Conference. But, Marner has and will continue to shine. My lean is Jarvis. ➤NHL Conn Smythe Winner Pick: None

Click here to trade on the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner at Polymarket

President Trump took to his Truth Social media platform—an alt-Twitter (X) for the MAGA crowd—last week to again blow some wind behind the sails of prediction markets and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) head Michael Selig for the job he has been doing so far.

With this ongoing tug of war between some states and the US government over federal regulations and this still somewhat new and evolving industry—a lot like sports gambling but not a lot not like it at all—where it seems the US Supreme Court will one day have to silence the birds.

We have seen the Supreme Court rule once before and have massive impact in the overturning of Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PAPSA) in 2018, paving the way for legal sports betting in US states that allowed it and birthing the DraftKings and the FanDuels of the world.

So Trump turned to the media platform he created through a company (Trump Media & Technology Group) he is the majority owner of to say how great prediction markets and Selig are. Yawn. This would be like Elon Musk going on Twitter (X) and saying how fucking great SpaceX is.

“It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive.” Trump (or likely someone) wrote on May 26.

Trump went on to demonize anyone who has voiced opinions against prediction markets, like Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, New York AG Leitia James, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Chris Christie—all Blue State folks, of course—calling them “SCUM”—in all caps—as if anyone cares.

Welcome back to high school where 80-year-olds yell at the 60- and 70-year-olds like 16-year-old teen girls over things that they’ve probably never used and know so little about. It’s very easy to dislike politicians. They never meet causes that they can’t be persuaded financially into backing.

Anyway, in my mind Trump is right. When the animals are running free from the zoo, you do need a zookeeper to say, “Hey you crazy animals. This is a zoo, damnit, not a circus. Get back in your cages.” States like Nevada and Minnesota are demonizing companies like Kalshi and Polymarket.

And living here in Las Vegas and knowing the power of the Nevada Gaming Commission (NGC) and lobbyists, one sees how hard it is for the prediction markets wanting a piece of each state’s pie. The problem is the hypocrisy. Nevada saying people can’t bet where and the way they want to is goofy.

There is no Kalshi, Polymarket, or Novig here available legally. And there is also no DraftKings or FanDuel. The casinos want you to bet with them and think prediction markets are some kind of new and strange enemy (with healthy heads of hair). The delusions run deep, as does the hypocrisy.

“It is a major industry and we need to protect it,” Trump wrote. Amen, you strange old Orange Man.

Three more organizations put their names on the dockets of the CFTC list in May—Eventive III LLC, Bullish Markets LLC, and Limitless Markets US, LLC—bringing the total in the pending legislative pipeline to 17, meaning that one-man show Michael Selig may not sleep until 2029.

Here are the other 14 pending organizations in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s approval pipeline by their filing dates:

OneChronos Markets DCM, LLC, RSBX, LLC, tZERO DC, LLC, ProphetX LLC, XV Exchange, Optex Markets, Ludlow Exchange LLC, Water Street Labs, Sporttrade DCM LLC, Juice Exchange LLC, PMEX Markets, PredictCraft Mkt Inc (DimeTrades), Smarkets Board of Trade Exchange LLC, and TLD Markets, Inc.

The CFTC officially granted Xchange Alpha as a Designated Contract maker (DCM) on January 30, 2026, making them the fastest to ever receive regulatory approval in CFTC history (204 days). 

The independent federal agency, the CFTC, located in Washington, DC, was started by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act of 1974 and began with just five employees in April of 1975. Now, the CFTC has more than 550 people working and expect more with the PM boom.

Selig is the only sitting board member on the 5-seat panel with the other 4 seats currently vacant.

The popular Sunday night (CBS, 7 ET/PT) newsmagazine 60 Minutes aired an interesting piece on its Sunday, May 17 show, with an interesting investigative piece looking into prediction markets, this one called, “Betting on War.” Trading on wars, assassinations, or terrorism is illegal in the US.

The segment detailed how billions were and are still being bet on the controversial War categories listed on some popular exchanges and the concerns about insider trading, as we saw when a US Special Forces soldier was arrested for trading on Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro’s capture.

As we detailed here at The Prediction Report, Fort Bragg-stationed soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke had more than $33,000 on 13 different Venezuela-related contracts and reportedly made over $436,000 on Polymarket on Maduro’s removal before news of the raid broke. Naughty, naughty.

The show talked about how foreign players could potentially use these markets and weaponize them and that some of the polymarkets may be national security threats. The 60 Minutes report also touched on the potential and sad reality of some traders actually intimidating journalists.

While reporting on the war, Times of Israel war correspondent Emanuel Fabian was threatened by Polymarket traders after he reported on an Iranian missile strike in Israel in March 2026. The news would cost the gamblers up to $900,000 so they tried to take matters into their own greedy hands.

Traders are making millions in these markets, and for a new industry already underscrutiny and trying to establish some credibility while being pounded on—and joined—by the legal sportsbooks, making sure insider trading from people in Washington, DC knowing things, integrity is imperative.

ABC News reported on May 27 that an employee of Google, Michael Spagnulo, was charged with making over $1 million in trading on Polymarket prediction market platform by using information he allegedly obtained in his job as a security engineer for the company. Mike. Come on man.

Most of these trades are coming on the crypto part of the platform where it would theoretically be easier to hide one’s identity if getting involved in shady trades. But the long arm of the modern digital law isn’t as short as people like Spagnuolo and Maduro IT trader Van Dyke have found out.

How did the 36-year-old Spagnuolo do it? Using his AlphaRaccoon account on Polymarket, he made some $1.2 million in profit after the Google ‘Year in Search 2025’ results were posted on December 4, 2025.

Spagnuolo bought ‘Yes’ contracts that the singer known as ‘D4vd’ would be the most-searched person last year on Google, and when he made his trades, the complaint said Polymarket had “assigned a near-zero probability to d4vd being ‘the #1 searched person on Google this year’.”

“Once he won, Spagnuolo then took deliberate steps to conceal his unlawful use of nonpublic information by attempting to obscure the source and ownership of his unlawful proceeds," the complaint went on.” He was charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on June 11 with the United States, Canada, and Mexico tri-hosting (for the first time) the world’s largest national soccer tournament. Forty-eight teams are in—up from 32—and will play at 16 different venues (11 USA, 3 MEX, 2 CAN) until July 19.

Before the start, let’s look at the 12 groups, starting with A-F in this issue of The Prediction Report, followed by G-L in the June 5 online edition. We will sell no wine before its time. Knowing who is great, who is good, who is average, and who sucks always helps when betting or trading on sports.

Group A—Host nation Mexico (53%, Kalshi) is the heavy favorite in the prediction markets with Raúl Jiménez and El Tri the traders pick in the FIFA World Cup Group A Winner market with Czechia (22%), South Korea (22)%, and South Africa (6)% following in trading order on May 31.

➤Trading Thoughts: Mexico has all three Group A games at Home, why the prices. But Pavel Šulc, Tomáš Souček, and Czechia (Czech Republic) and Son Heung-min and South Korea are also good teams. All three should make the final 32 (KO Stage). ➤Group A Winner Pick: South Korea 21¢

➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group A Trend Pick: South Korea Unders

Group B—Switzerland (54%) is the favorite in the FIFA World Cup Group B Winner despite Alphonso Davies and Canada (31%) hosting three matches in the Great White North (2 VAN, 1 TOR). Bosnia-Herzegovina (10%) and Qatar (2%) round this unimpressive Group of Non-Death.

➤Trading Thoughts: Canada vs Switzerland on June 24 at BC Place in Ogpogoville (Vancouver) will be the biggest match in this Group, and expect both to advance on to the Round of 32. Bayern doesn’t want Davies (CAN) injured, but expect him to go. ➤Group B Winner Pick: Switzerland 54¢

➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group B Side Trend Pick: Qatar Fades (-1½ goals)

Group C—This is an average group, watered down from the expansion from 32 to 48 teams. Only Brazil (73%) and underappreciated Morocco (19%) deserve to make the KO Stage Scotland (8%), and Haiti (<1%) just taking up space despite national pride and all. This is the Group of Bad Breath.

This one isn’t a matter of picking the FIFA World Cup Group C Winner, but more about can Vini Jr, João Pedro, Gabriel Martinelli, Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Gabriel Magalhães Marquinhos, and GK Allison make the F4 teams should Seleção make the F8. ➤Group C Winner Pick: Brazil 73¢

➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group C Totals Trend Pick: Brazil Overs

Group D—This is a group where any nation could win and it wouldn’t surprise me. The co-trihost United States (40%) and Türkiye (35%) are who the wisdom of the collective masses say wins the FIFA World Cup Group D Winner. Paraguay (18%) and Australia (8%) followed at Polymarket.

If I say none of these deserve to make the KO Stage, I may be deported. We pretend Thanksgiving is here and carve Turkey. No wait, that’s too much Tryptophan for the scary, scary month of June and we’re not Young Turks, nor Christian Pulisic fanboys. ➤Group D Winner Pick: Australia 9¢

➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group D Totals Trend Pick: Turkey Overs

Group E—This is another below average group, so we’ve managed to water down the Big Dance and the World Cup in the blink of an eye. Don’t blame AI here you shaved Apes. Impending doom must be coming down Route 66. Best enjoy the beautiful things, like Germany GK Manuel Neuer.

Forty-year-old Neuer said nein to playing, changed his mind, so I see value in Antonio Rüdiger and Germany in the WC Winner (5%). The FIFA World Cup Group E Winner market sees DFB-Team (68%) faves over Ecuador (22%), Ivory Coast (13%), Curaçao (<1%). ➤Group E Winner Pick: Germany 70¢

➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group E Side Trends Picks: Germany -1.5 (vs Ivory Coast and Curaçao). Ecuador Unders (2) 

Group F—This is an above average group, with the top three likely making the KO Stage. In the World Cup Group F Winner market—Clockwork Orange Netherlands (53%), Japan (26%), and Sweden (17%) are good with Tunisia (6%) last. Tunisia is #44 in the FIFA World Soccer Rankings.

With a Liverpool Fab Four of Virgil van Dijk (C), Cody Gakpo, Jeremie Frimpong, and Ryan Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders (MC), Denzel Dumfries (Inter), Frenkie de Jong (BAR), and Bart Verbruggen (BHA), Oranje the color, Samurai Blue the mood. ➤Group F Winner Pick: Japan 26¢

➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group F Totals Trend Pick: Japan Unders

➤2026 FIFA World Cup Groups G-L Previews up in the next issue 

A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces (4-2, 4-0 Road) face the Los Angeles Sparks (3-3, 1-3 Home) in a WNBA Commissioner’s Cup and Western Conference tilt from crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Tuesday night (WNBA League Pass, Vegas 34, Spectrum Sports Network, 10 EDT/9CDT/7 PDT).

These two teams just met on May 23 with former Aces G and now Sparks playmaker Kelsey Plum and LA upsetting Las Vegas, 101-95 as Plum had 38 points at the Michelob ULTRA Arena in Sin City. But Plum suffered a sprained ankle and may miss this game, with LAS saying she’s out until June 5.

In the 2026 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup MVP market at Kalshi, A’ja Wilson (18%) was the trader’s third choice with the Liberty’s Breanna Stewart (25%) second choice. The Sparks’ Kelsey Plum was trading at 6% but that’s dead money (ankle). Indiana’s Caitlin Clark led at 28%.

➤Trading Thoughts: Defending WNBA champs Las Vegas are the call here for a number of reasons. The Aces were 4-0 on the Road heading in and with Plum injured and likely out, the hosts could be without their best playmaker and shooter. And revenge will be on LV’s mind as well.

But with bigs like Cameron Brink, Dearica Hamby, and Nneka Ogwumike, the spark will be able to get their points down low, and looking at the two Final Scores from the two meetings this 2026 WNBA Regular Season (LA 101 LV 95, LV 105 LA 78), there should be much scoring in Hollyweird.

The Aces are led by stars Wilson (24.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG) and G Chelsea Gray (12.0 PPG,6.7 AST) and have great role players in G Chennedy Carter (20.0 PPG), F NaLyssa Smith (11.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), and G Jackie Young (9.3 PPG). ➤ Trading Picks: Las Vegas Aces 55¢, Over 

Click here to trade on Women’s Pro Basketball at Kalshi

Round 6 of the 2026 Formula One season seed the circuit racing in the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix at the historic narrow and snakey Circuit de Monaco in the principality of Monaco on Sunday (Apple TV, 9 EDT/8 CDT/6 PDT) in one of the most prestigious annual events in Auto Racing.

Held since 1929, the Monaco Grand Prix is 161.734 miles (260.268 km) over the 2.074 mile track (3.337 km), and because of the layout and number of jagged turns, is the slowest of the F1 races but also visually appealing with glamorous Monaco serving as the picturesque racing backdrop. 

Charles Leclerc (29%), Andrea Kimi Antonelli (19%), Lewis Hamilton (17%), George Russell (17%), Lando Norris (10%), Max Verstappen (8%), Oscar Piastri (6%), Valeri Bottas (1%), Isack Hadjar (1%) and Sergio Pérez (1%) make up the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix: Driver Winner market.

➤Trading Thoughts: F1 Constructors’ team Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 is a perfect 5-0 this season, with Italian rookie sensation Andrea Kimi Antonelli winning the last four races with teammate George Russell winning the opening Australian Grand Prix on March 8.

Werner Erhard (est) once said, “Ride the horse in the direction that it’s going,” so let’s do just that, L'Angelo Misterioso and back the man with a name better suited for an opera singer and see if he can make it a Verstappen-esque five wins in a row. ➤Trading Pick: Andrea Kimi Antonelli 19¢

Click here to trade on the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix: Driver Winner at Polymarket

 ➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the NBA Finals and the NBA Finals MVP, where LeBron James may end up next season, will there be a Euphoria Season 4 and previews for the NASCAR FireKeepers 400 Casino 400 and 2026 FIFA World Cup Groups G-L. Thanks for reading and subscribing to this bi-weekly newsletter for prediction market traders, sports bettors, and news junkies alike.