In this issue we look at the second major of the Golf year, the 2026 PGA Championship, along with Limitless Exchange applying with the CFTC, ‘Who Will Die in Euphoria?’, the weekly Earnings Calendar, a 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs market update, two EPL previews, an English League One Semis preview, a Ligue 1 preview, a 2025-26 Coppa Italia Final preview, two MLS previews, and two MLB previews.
Second Golf Major of Year Plays at Aronimink GC
The second major of the men’s Golf calendar year and only one strictly for the pros, the 2026 PGA Championship is scheduled to tee off on Thursday, May 14 and end on Sunday, May 17 at the Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, a suburb of Philadelphia.
The first two rounds of the tournament will be on ESPN and ESPN+ with the final two on CBS. In the year’s first major, The Masters, at Augusta in April, Rory McIlroy repeated as the Green Jacket winner. This will be the second time the PGA Championship will be played at Aronimink (1962).
American Scottie Scheffler is still the #1 ranked player on the PGA Tour and he won this major last year and is the favorite in the Futures markets at both prediction markets and sportsbooks and will continue to be until someone else can prove they are better and more consistent than him.
Looking at who’s hot and who may challenge the 29-year-old Scheffler, Cam Young has impressed, winning the Cadillac Championship and The Players Championship this year while Xander Schaueffele has also been solid as well as Matt Fitzpatrick (#3 PGA) and veteran McIlroy.
There are also a number of players on the tour looking for their first big win, but when trading on them, it’s always important to ask if you are weighing the contract price more than the quality of the golfer. The beauty of PMs lies in the public ultimately predicting outcomes given enough time.
Maverick McNealy, putter extraordinaire Denny McCarthy, and Tommy Fleetwood—an 11-time winner globally—are all still seeking their first victories on the PGA Tour, but only 35-year-old Englishman Fleetwood may be worth a look in the second major of the year.
As traders size up the next major championship, institutional money is making aggressive moves in another market entirely:
Why BofA Is "Raiding" This $3.8B Gold Stock
While the mainstream media is obsessed with the headlines coming out of the Iran conflict...
Wall Street's "Smart Money" is quietly staging a raid on the physical gold market.
Bank of America just increased their position in one specific gold stock by 139%.
Jane Street boosted theirs by 159%.
Millennium Management added 122%.
These institutions aren't buying the metal…
They're buying the "Shadow Miner" sitting on 88 million ounces of gold—more than the national reserves of France and Italy combined.
They know that on May 29th, a legal deadline forces the paper gold market to face a 200-to-1 delivery shortage.
When the "Iran Discount" ends and the vault doors lock, this stock won't just move—it will reprice.
Different market, same behavior. Watching where serious money concentrates can reveal a lot before outcomes fully play out.
2026 PGA Championship Winner Market
Kalshi traders have top-ranked Scottie Scheffler (16%) as the favorite to win (and repeat) as the 2026 PGA Championship winner with back-to-back The Masters winner Rory McIlroy (8.9%), Cameron Young (7%), Jon Rahm (5.9%) and Xander Schauffele (5.1%) following on May 10.
Next up in the ‘Yes’ for the second major of the year were Bryson DeChambeau (4.1%), Ludvig Åberg (3.8%), Valspar Championship and RBC Heritage winner Matt Fitzpatrick (3.7%), Tommy Fleetwood (3.3%), Patrick Cantlay (1.9%), Collin Morikawa (1.8%), and Justin Rose (1.8%).
On May 5, the trading volume on the PGA Championship was $20,471,080. Last month The Masters saw $460,271,755 at the exchange. With heavy in-tournament trading and so many lead changes, expect PGA Championship volume to keep rising. Golf and PMs are a great marriage.
➤Trading Thoughts: Scheffler had three straight 2nd-place finishes (Masters, RBC Heritage, Cadillac Championship) heading into last week and one can’t help but think that Scottie will be in the mix on the final 18 holes in the City Of Brotherly Love And Bunkers Chock Full O’ Groundhogs.
Why? He won this event last year, is playing as good as anyone (ranked #1) and probably frustrated with so many 2nd-place finishes. What better way to change his 2026 by winning another major and staying on top. VSIN Golf expert Wes Reynolds liked Tommy Fleetwood among his longshots.
The way the 28-year-old Young is coming on can’t be ignored and it seems there is starting to be a gap between Scheffler. McIlroy, and Young and Schauffele, Morikama, Fitzpatrick, Åberg and the rest of the PGA Tour. Trading Picks: Xander Schauffele, Yes 16¢, Cameron Young, Yes, 7¢
Limitless Applies to Become a CFTC-Regulated PM
Limitless Markets US, LLC applied for CFTC approval last week to have Limitless Exchange become a federally regulated derivatives exchange on the heels of a record $1.66 billion month with $3.9 billion in notional volume in April according to Dune Analytics. That’s impressive.
Should the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approve Limitless to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), Limitless Exchange would be on the same designation used by PM heavy hitters Kalshi, Polymarket US, Crypto.com, and Derivatives America.
The application by Limitless Markets US, LLC came on May 1, 2026 and will sit in the CFTC queue. One of the leading decentralized PMs, Limitless has really seen some nice growth on the company’s existing blockchain exchange, the Base network
We asked several issues back, “Who’s #3?” in the PM space, and by filing for CFTC approval and getting in the queue will setting record trading volume means Limitless Exchange may be able to gain some traction, but it seems the gap between No’s 1 and 2 and the rest will always be wide.
The same access theme is showing up beyond prediction markets, especially around private market opportunities tied to AI:
$1 quadrillion would be enough to send a check for $2.8 million to every man, woman, and child in America.
That's how big this opportunity is.
And you could claim a stake today…
Before the company goes public…
Starting with just $500.
Different market, same idea. Early access can matter most before a story becomes available to everyone.
Earnings Reports Scheduled For Many This Week
This week, we will see a number of companies reporting earnings including Playboy (PLBY), Hims and Hers Health (HIMS), Getty Images (GETY). AEOCOM (ACM), and Zoominfo Technologies (GTM) who will all be reporting after the closing bell on Monday, May 11.
On Tuesday, May 12 pre-market earnings reports from Under Armour (UAA) and eToro (ETOR) will come out with Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), Wix.com (WIX), and Alibaba (BABA) all reporting on before the opening bell rings on Wednesday, May 13.
On Thursday, May 14, Applied Materials (AMAT), Rumble (RUM), Theravance Biopharma (TBPH), Gambling.com (GAMB), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) will all report after the bell.
To watch the Playboy (PLBY: NASDAQ) Q1 2026 results conference call, access the investor relations website. The call starts at 5 ET Monday. US Dial-in is 1-877-423-9813, the International Dial-in is 1-201-689-8573. The Conference ID is 13760265. ➤Trading Pick: Playboy to Beat Estimates, Yes 94¢
Who Will Die in Euphoria Season 3? at Polymarket
The Home Box Office (HBO) hit Euphoria returned for Season 3 in April, and at Polymarket and Kalshi, traders can get involved in various markets for the popular Sunday night drama (HBO MAX, 9 ET/PT) which returned in April for eight episodes. The show last aired back in 2022.
Euphoria saw 8.5 million viewers in both the season premiere Episode 1 (April 12) and Episode 2 (April 19) with the show seeing over 20 million views after those two airings and before the violent Episode 3 (April 26). There will be eight episodes in Season 3, the same as the first two seasons.
The show stars Zendaya (Rue Bennett), Sydney Sweeney (Cassie Howard), Jacob Elordi (Nate Jacobs), Hunter Schafer (Jules Vaughn), Alexa Demme (Maddy Perez) and Eric Dane (Cal Jacobs).
In the ‘Who Will Die in Euphoria: Season 3?’ polymarket at the aptly named Polymarket, traders were thinking Nate Jacobs (72%), would be the likeliest to meet an early demise on the HBO hit followed by show star Rue Bennett (65%—Zendaya), Faye (14%), and Jules Vaughn (14%).
The least likely to die by violence (or by the cruel screenwriters pens) in Euphoria Season 3 according to traders on May 10—as the show aired—were Ethan Daley (10%), Cal Jacobs (10%), Lexi Howard (10%), Maddy Perez (9%), Cassie Howard (3%), and Elliot (3%).
Episode 5 just aired May 10 (“This Little Piggy”), Episode 6 is on May 17 (“Stand Still and See”), Episode 7 is on May 24 (“Rain or Shine”) and season finale Episode 8 (“In Go We Trust”) is May 31.
➤Trading Thoughts: Nate took a nasty beating in Episode 3 and likely why traders think Cassie’s new husband is the leading candidate to buy the Buick, but this seems like a ‘No’-fest to me although there are enough episodes to see someone, likely in one of the two warring sides, to die.
When Episode 5 ended, we saw Rue buried in the earth up to her head with Alamo Brown on a horse with a polo mallet smacking her in the head as the episode faded to black. Still, there was no movement on Rue dying and it’s hard to see Euphoria killing its golden goose. ➤Trading Picks: Rue Bennett, No 66¢, Maddy Perez, No, 91.9¢, Cal Jacobs, Yes 10¢
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Winner Market Update
We are down to eight teams and we will soon be down to four in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, so now will be the last best time to handicap and analyze what’s left on the frozen water and if it is worth buying in what many better consider the “The Colorado Avalanche Invitational”. It is not.
The NHL is unforgiving, and Colorado has easily been the best team all 2025 NHL Regular Season. Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and the Avalanche started the Postseason off going 6-1, outscoring opponents 28-18 in extremely high-scoring skates (6.57 GPG) vs the Kings and Wild.
But over in the Eastern Conference, the Carolina Hurricanes have started off perfect, going 8-0, outscoring opponents 24-10 in fairly low-scoring games (4.25 GPG) vs the Senators and Flyers. Don’t sleep on the Canadiens this season and expect Les Habs series with Buffalo to last awhile.
In the ‘Stanley Cup Champion’ market, Kalshi traders are backing the Carolina Hurricanes (37%) and Colorado Avalanche (34%) over the Vegas Golden Knights (13%), the Montréal Canadiens (9%) the Minnesota Wild (5%), the Buffalo Sabres (4%), and the Anaheim Ducks (3%)
➤Trading Thoughts: This market will come down to three things: 1—Can VGK upset Colorado? (No.) 2—Can either Buffalo or Montréal beat Carolina? (Yes.) 3—Can the Eastern Conference winner beat the Avs? (Yes. This is the NHL.) ➤Trading Picks: Avalanche, Yes 36¢, Canadiens, Yes 9¢
Manchester City Hosting Palace on Wednesday
It will be a must-win situation in the English Premier League for Erling Haaland and Manchester City (22-8-5) when the Citizens play host to Crystal Palace (11-11-13) at the Etihad Stadium (Desso Grassmaster) in Greater Manchester on Wednesday (USA Network, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
Premier League traders at Polymarket like Phil Foden at Manchester City (81%) in this must-win spot over Crystal Palace (7%) with a Draw trading at 13%. The Over 3.5 goals Total (‘Yes’) is 45¢ with the Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) prop at 47¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the last 5 H2H series meetings we see that the Citizens are 3-1-1 (14 GF-6 GA) with the Citizens registering 2 straight Clean Sheets, including the last meeting, a 3-0 stomping in London on December 14, 2025 as Haaland had a brace and Foden added a goal.
City created its own stress with a defensive lapse and a late (and lucky) Draw against Everton, so expect a fast pace and many SOG. Arsenal hosts Burnley (May 18) and ends with CP in Matchweek 38 in London. MC will need to beat CP then hope the Eagles upset the Gunners. ➤Trading Picks: Manchester City, Yes 81¢, Manchester City -1.5, 60.9¢
Lens Welcomes PSG in Ligue 1 Clash on Wednesday
The 2025-26 Ligue 1 season continues on with 1st-place Paris Saint-Germain (22-4-5, 70 PTS) at 2nd-place Lens (20-5-7, 64 PTS) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Grass) in Lens, France on Wednesday (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT) and a shot for Les Parisiens to clinch the league title.
At Polymarket, traders are buying Ousmane Dembélé and Paris Saint-Germain FC (50%) over Racing Club de Lens (29%) in this significant Ligue 1 match with a Draw at 23%. The Total 3.5 sees the Over at 45¢ (Under 64¢) with the Both Teams To Score prop (‘Yes’) currently trading at 69¢.
➤Trading Thoughts: PSG has expended much energy in Ligue 1 and UCL play this Spring, but this club is built for this time of year as we saw last May when PSG went 5-1-0, outscoring opponents 18-5 in winning Ligue 1, the Coupe de France, and the UEFA Champions League. Nothing big.
Defeating Lens here should come easy for this still underrated club which may be in the Top 10 in Europe of all time, no hyperbole. In the last 5 H2H meetings, PSG is unbeaten vs Lens (4-1-0), outscoring Les Sang et Or (The Blood and Gold) 8-2 in relatively low-scoring games (2.0 GPG). ➤Trading Pick: PSG, 50¢
Inter, Lazio Meet in Coppa Italia Final Wednesday
The 2025-26 Coppa Italia tournament is down to the last two clubs with Serie A clubs Lazio and Inter Milan squeezing through the 44-club tourney to make it to this Final on Wednesday at Olimpico (Grass) in Rome, Italy on Wednesday (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
Lazio needed GK Edoardo Motta to stop four straight spot kicks vs Atalanta in Leg 2 to make it here while Hakan Çalhanoglu, Andy Diouf, and Internazionale (Inter Milan) edged out Como (3-2 aggregate) with all 5 goals in the two legs coming in the decisive Leg 2 in Milan.
Traders at Polymarket are buying FC Internazionale Milano (56%) over SS Lazio (19%) with a Draw trading at 27%. The Total is 2.5 Over 49¢, Under 52¢ with the Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) prop at 56¢ (No 50¢). In the last 4 series meetings the BTTS ‘No’ is a profitable 4-1.
➤Trading Thoughts: Seeking a double, Ange-Yoan Bonny, and Nerazzurri (The Black and Blues) are the pick, going 4-1-0 vs Lazio (11 GF-3 GA) with a large look showing the Serie A leaders 70-56-39 lifetime vs Lazio. Inter wants the silverware, are the class of Serie A and are in the top 10 in Europe now.
Marcus Thuram and Inter should win this by 2 goals, making laying 1.5 at 37¢ a tempting idea. The best idea is to have a little on Inter in the Coppa Italia: Winner (‘Yes’) market at 73¢ to avoid losing it if it goes to ET or PKs, a little at 58¢ for the match, and a little at 1.5 at 37¢ for the price.
➤Trading Picks: Inter Milan Coppa Italia Winner Yes, 73¢; Inter Milan Final 3-Way Winner, Yes, 58¢, Inter Milan -1.5 Goals, 37¢
Big MLS Schedule Kicking Off on Wednesday Night
There are 14 games on the MLS schedule on Wednesday, all streaming on Apple TV with two of the fixtures also airing on good old fashioned (regular) TV on FS1 in New York City FC at Charlotte FC and Austin FC at expansion side San Diego FC.
The MLS has never been better after signing a 10-year, $2.5 billion contract with Apple Inc. (AAPL: NASDAQ) and has 30 teams in the league now with the addition of San Diego FC. Lionel Messi stars for champions Inter Miami and Antoine Griezmann is leaving LALIGA for Orlando City SC.
In the first televised game, New York City FC plays Charlotte FC at Bank of America Stadium (FieldTurf Vertex CORE) in Charlotte, NC (7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT). Traders at Kalshi are backing hosts Charlotte FC (45%) over New York City FC (31%) with a Tie (Draw) trading at 21%.
The second televised match will see Austin FC against new kids on the pitch San Diego FC at Snapdragon Stadium (Latitude 36 Bermuda Grass) in San Diego (9:30 EDT/8:30 CDT/6:30 PDT).
➤Trading Thoughts: NYCFC (3-3-5) and Charlotte (4-2-5) met in last year’s MLS Playoffs (NYCFC advanced), and lifetime, The Crown are 6-2-4 (W-D-L) lifetime vs the Pigeons although NYCFC is 3-1-1 in the last 5 series meetings (7 GF-3 GA) with Charlotte getting shut out 3 times.
These two have had mediocre starts and sit mid-table in the Eastern Conference standings. With Nicolás Fernández (8 goals) clicking for NYCFC and Pep Beal (5 goals) and Charlotte at Home, there should be 3 goals scored in this one. ➤Trading Pick: Over 2.5, Yes 60¢
English League One Promotion Semis on Thursday
The 2025-26 English League One season has seen 1st-place Lincoln City (103 points) and 2nd-place Cardiff City (91 points) earning promotion to the EFL Championship next season, with the 3rd-place through 6th-place clubs involved in the fight for the third and last promotion spot.
In one Semifinal series, 3rd-place Stockport County (77 points) will face 6th-place Stevenage County (75 points) for a berth in the Final with 4th-place Bradford City (77 points) meeting Amario Cozier-Duberry and 5th-place Bolton Wanderers (75 points).
On Thursday, Leg 2 of the Bradford City-Bolton Wanderers series is set to be contested and the two met in the Regular Season on April 26 with the match ending in a 1-1 tie with a Johnny Kenny goal giving Bolton Wanderers the point it needed to earn this Semifinals Promotions chance.
Polymarket soccer traders like Mason Burstow (10 goals) and hosts Bolton Wanderers FC (37%) over GK Sam Walker (9 Clean Sheets), Antoni Sarcevic (11 goals) and Bradford City AFC (34%) with a Draw at 28% at Valley Parade (Grass) in Bradford on Thursday (3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
➤Trading Thoughts: If getting involved in this market, remember that the Draw (tied after 90 minutes + Injury Time) contracts are there for a reason. Bolton (+18 GD) has proven it can score on the Road and in 6 of the last 7 Wanderers fixtures, the Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) prop won. ➤Trading Pick: Draw 28¢
Subway Series Starting at Citi Field on Friday Night
Apple TV has two MLB games on tap on Friday night with Detroit hosting Toronto from Comerica Park (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Detroit (6:40 EDT/3:40 PDT) and the Mets hosting the Yankees at Citi Field (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Queens (7:10 EDT/4:10 PDT) in the Big Apple’s Subway Series.
The scheduled starting pitchers for these games weren’t solidified, but the AL champ Blue Jays were sending young RHP Trey Yesavage to the mound with the Tigers undecided. The Bronx Bombers were sending Cam Schlittler to the bump vs the Mets Clay Holmes.
In the Pro Baseball Champion market (World Series) at Kalshi, because of their great start, Aaron Judge and the Yankees have a 17% chance of winning MLB’s championship with the Mets at 1.6%. The Blue Jays were at 2%, and the Tigers at 2.3% on May 10.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Yankees have been great at Home, great on the Road, and great at the plate and on the pitcher’s mound where the scheduled starter here, Cam Schlittler (5-1, 0.87 WHIP), has been a nice surprise in The House That Ruth Built as has been Ben Rice (.343/122/27).
In the 2025 Subway Series, the teams split, both 2-1 at Home in high-scoring (10.2 RPG) games (NYY 6-2, NYM 3-2, NYY 8-2, NYM 6-5, NYM 12-5, NYY 6-4). The Site is an edge and this series may see Overs. The games in September at Citi Field will honor the 25th anniversary of 9/11.
With the Metropolitans so poor at Home (6-12), backing Judge, Rice, Schlittler and the Bronx Bombers is the logical approach with the Over also worth a look depending on what the Total (Runs) will be posted at. ➤Trading Picks: Yankees, Yankees-Mets Over
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the FA Cup Final, the WSJ’s scathing report on prediction markets, Kalshi doubling its valuation in five months, Will MrBeast Hit Billion Views by June 30?, Will Mike Vrabel be Out as Pats Head Coach by Dec 31 2026?, EPL, LALIGA, and MLB previews, a Netflix MMA Special: Rousey vs Carano preview and a preview of the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race. Thanks for reading and subscribing to this bi-weekly newsletter for prediction market traders, sports bettors, and news junkies alike.