UFC 250 at The White House

The first professional event ever to be held at the White House in Washington, DC, UFC Freedom 250 will be held on Sunday, June 14 on the South lawn of the president’s home in an homage to the United States Declaration of Independence's 250th birthday, coming up on July 4, 2026.

PT Barnum would be proud of UFC Freedom 250 (aka UFC White House) which will be produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)—Dana White is an ally of President Trump—and saw the weigh-ins being held at the Lincoln Memorial. A special 5,000-seat arena has been built.

The event will air on CBS and Paramount+ and will feature a number of notable UFC bouts, including a Lightweight Title Unification between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethe, and a Heavyweight bout between Josh Hokit and Derick Lewis and Aiemann Zahabi vs Sean O’Malley.

Besides being able to bet on the fights on the Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) card for UFC Freedom 250, prediction market traders can also get down on Prop markets like who will attend the event. June 14 is Flag Day in the USA as well as the 80th birthday of President Trump.

Sports competition for UFC 250 is heavy Sunday with a full MLB slate, the 2026 CWS underway, five World Cup matches, two WNBA games, a potential NHL Stanley Cup Game 6 between the Hurricanes and VGK in Sin City, and the Barcelona Grand Prix and Great American Getaway 400.

The fight card for UFC Freedom 250 is pretty decent with Ilia Topuria (80%) vs Justin Gaethje (20%) in a Lightweight co-main event and Alex Pereira (52%) vs Ciryl Gane (48%) in a heavyweight fight and the other co-main event on the South Lawn of the White House.

Also on the 7-fight card, Sean O’ Malley (80%) vs Aiemann Zahabi (20%) in a Bantamweight bout, Josh Hokit (70%) vs Derrick Lewis (30%) in a Heavyweight fight at UFC Freedom 250, and Mauricio Ruffy (82%) vs Michael Chandler (18%) in a Lightweight bout on June 14 in DC.

Bo Nickal will meet Kyle Daukaus in a Middleweight fight while Diego Lopes and Steve Garcia will get it on in a Featherweight bout. 

➤Trading Thoughts: Proud American Justin Gaethje (27-5-1) is the big underdog against undefeated Georgian Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) in a Lightweight and the money on El Matador seems like the smart money. Nickal (8-1) is an elite wrestler and submission specialist, thus the lofty price.

Heavyweight Josh Hokit (9-0-0) is also undefeated, but 41-year-old Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (29-13-0) has more experience. More for entertainment than intent to make a profit on this unique event, like many parlays (combos) are. ➤ FC Freedom 250 Parlay: Nickal—Hokit—Gaethje

Click here to trade on UFC Freedom 250 fights at Kalshi

Besides trading on who will win the fights on the MMA card for UFC Freedom 250, Kalshi is offering a Who Will Attend UFC Freedom 250? market with a number of familiar names you can trade on for the June 14 event at the President’s residence on the South Lawn of the White House.

Here were the ‘Yes’No’ markets and the percentages, as of June 10, four days out from the event:

At Polymarket, their Who Will Attend UFC Freedom 250? looked different with celebs like Travis Scott (50%), Matthew McConaughey (48%), Jake Paul (49%), Jon Stewart (46%), Gregg Popovich (36%), Carmelo Anthony (48%), Sydney Sweeney (11%), Chris Rock (47%), and Alicia Keys (24%).

And no one, no one, no one, can tell me that Jon Stewart, Chris Rock, Cristiano Ronaldo (18%, old prices), Lionel Messi (18%), Bad Bunny (5%), Larry David (1%), or Alicia Keys will be in “physical attendance” at 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue on Flag Day. No one. And they say there are no “locks.” 

The global roadshow for the possibly the largest IPO in stock market history, the SpaceX IPO rollout continued this week with the company setting a healthy $135 per share offering price for SpaceX shares (SPCX-NASDAQ), and likely to reach that price with so much anticipation.

Formed by 54-year-old pioneer Elon Musk—a citizen of South Africa, the United States, and Canada—SpaceX, is a progressive rocket and satellite company, and this IPO is a combination of the core space operation of SpaceX and the operations of Starlink, and the Musk AI startup, xAI.

Musk, set to become the first trillionaire ever, also had a SpaceX launch set for June 12. The only way this IPO could’ve had more hype after having the world’s richest man wrap three companies into one and launch a rocket on IPO day would have been to have Jesus return in a Cybertruck.

Whereas most IPOs have a 5-10% allocation for retail investors, SpaceX targeted retail allocation around a robust 30% and was reportedly planning to stop taking orders on Wednesday (June 10), just two days before the big rollout on the tech-heavy NASDAQ stock market. Tick, Tick, Bang.

Around $75 billion worth of shares needed to be allocated to underwriters and asset managers on Wednesday and Thursday before SpaceX trading started trading today (Friday) so the brokerages could reach out to all of their clients about the futuristic new stock and its initial offering price.

Musk is hoping to make SpaceX the largest IPO ever by raising $80 billion at an estimated $1.75 trillion valuation according to Fortune. The IPO debut of Saudi Aramco on the Tadāwul Saudi Exchange on December 11, 2019 was at $1.7 trillion, and the current record until its broken.

Because of a recent rules change, SpaceX stock will likely make the NASDAQ-100 index after just 15 days with an anticipated $1.75 trillion in valuation. OpenAI recently filed the paperwork for its own US IPO, targeted for this year or early 2027.

A bar on New York City’s Upper East Side called The Jeffrey made news last week by using prediction market Kalshi as an insurance hedge against a promotion the establishment was running during Game 1 on the 2026 NBA Finals giving everyone a free tab if the Knicks won.

The Eastern Conference champions New York were big (6.5point, 37% Kalshi) underdogs heading into their game against Victor Wembanyama and the Western Conference champion SA Spurs at the Alamodome on Wednesday, June 23. The Knicks didn’t care, and rallied to win, 105-95.

The Jeffrey reportedly placed a $5,000 hedge bet on Kalshi to protect itself from any financial hit from Jalen Brunson and the Knicks winning, but the team that had won 11 straight games didn't care about the narrative or any 12-foot giant playing for the opposition in the Lone Star State.

“We want our customers to feel the magic of this moment. But we’re a small business, we can’t just eat a full night’s revenue on a whim,” said owner Andy Freedman. “Kalshi lets us make the boldest possible promise to our customers and know we’re covered no matter what.”

That was in theory. And it sort of worked. The Jeffrey bought a $5,000 Knicks ‘Yes’ contract, knowing if NY lost, the bar would make nice revenue on the promotion and if the Knicks pulled off the upset, customers’ tabs would be wiped out with the winning Kalshi payout covering ”losses”.

So it didn’t work out as expected. But it did. The Knicks made everyone there happy. Freedman won $7,942.73 from his bet and got so much promotion that we all know the bar’s name now. What was supposed to be a lesson in prediction markets as insurance became a modern irony tale.

Click here to read our special 2026 FIFA World Cup edition of The Prediction Report

We saw all the big names in world soccer fight for the Golden Boot award in the last 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, with France’s Kylian Mbappé notching a hat trick in the World Cup Final against Argentina to finish with 8 goals with La Seleccion’s Lionel Messi ending with 7 goals.

Prediction market trailers at Polymarket are backing France’s Mbappé (16%), England’s Harry Kane (13%), Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal (8%), Norway’s Erling Haaland (6%), Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo (5%), Argentina’s Lionel Messi (5%), and Spain’s electric Lamine Yamal (4%).

Many think the Golden Boot is won in the Group Stage, but in reality as we saw last WC where there were a record 172 goals scored (2.69 GPG) in the 64 games in Qatar, it sometime goes down to the last half of the last match as we saw in the Mbappé-Messi statistical shootout.

But looking beyond the WC shortshots to win the Golden Boot may end up being a wiser trading approach, but to get maximum value—in both PMs and sportsbooks—one would need to buy some longshots early. But who? Here are 4 players worth a look for the tournament, now underway.

Julián Alvarez (3%, 3.6¢ Polymarket, 35/1 DraftKings) will have to fight Argentinian teammates Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martínez (2%, 35/1 DK) for goals and the 26-year-old Atlético Madrid forward has 14 goals for La Seleccion heading into Group J play (Austria, Algeria, Jordan). 

With Neymar (79 goals) likely to miss some games in the GS, Barcelona’s Raphinha (4%, 4.0¢ at Kalshi, 30/1 DK)—as well as Real Madrid’s Viní Júnior (9 goals)—Rapinha (11 goals) will get his chances with games vs Haiti (June 19) and Scotland (June 24) great goal-scoring opportunities.

Jeremy Doku (1% Polymarket, 35/1 DK) will also fight teammates—Romelu Lukaku, Leandro Trossard, and KDB—for scores on the Red Devils, but the 24-year-old MCFC F’s energy level and upside is value on a team that will need to make the R16 or maybe the Quarterfinals for him to win.

Maybe a better Golden Ball candidate, Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise (2% Polymarket, 50/1 DraftKings) is among the best young talents on Earth. The problem? Trying to get goals on a squad 

with co-favorite Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Bradley Barcola, and Marcus Thuram. 

➤Longshot 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner Pick: Michael Olise, France 1.7¢ 

Click here to trade on the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner at Polymarket

The first pitch of the 2026 College World Series will be thrown today at Charles Schwab Field (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Omaha, Nebraska on when Troy (38-30) faces #10 West Virginia (45-15) in G1 of the double elimination tournament on Friday afternoon (ESPN, 2 EDT/2 CDT/11 PDT).

The second Friday game has Ole Miss (41-21) playing #5 North Carolina (50-12-1) in an ACC-SEC showdown. On Saturday, Oklahoma (38-22) meets #7 Alabama (42-19) in the afternoon (ESPN, 3 EDT/12 PDT) followed by #3 Georgia (51-12) and #6 Texas (45-13) at night (ESPN, 8 EDT/5 PDT).

With these 8 schools in the CWS, it’s now a crazy 23 of 24 different teams—NC twice—who have now made it to Omaha the last 3 years. Tennessee beat A&M (2-1) after losing G1 in 2024 while last season, it was LSU who swept tiny Coastal Carolina (2-0) as the SEC won its 6th straight CWS.

A record five SEC teams made it to the Big Dirt Dance this year and with West Virginia (Big 12) and Troy (Sun Belt) making the CWS for the first time, it will likely be up to HC Scott Forbes and North Carolina (ACC) to try to stop the SEC domination at The Chuck this baseball-heavy month.

UCLA was the #1 team all year long. But like the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA and the Colorado Avalanche in the NHL, the team that actually played the best during the Regular Season didn’t even make it to the College World Series, NBA Finals, or Stanley Cup Final in 2026.

In the College Baseball DI Champion market at Kalshi, traders are behind Georgia (26%), OF Anthony Pack Jr and ,Texas (22%), North Carolina (21%), Ole Miss (10%), West Virginia (9%), C Deitan Lachance, Oklahoma (7%), SS Justin Lebron and Alabama (6%), and Troy (3%).

➤Trading Thoughts: It’s sad the trader’s favorites Georgia and Texas are playing each other in the opener as the loser will have to be perfect to fight back to get to the best-of-3 Championship Series. With sluggers Daniel Jackson, Tre Phelps, Kolby Branch, and Brennan Hudson, lean Dawgs.

With ace RHPs Jason DeCaro and Ryan Lynch, INFs Jake Schaffner, and Gavin Gallaher, and OF Owen Hull, North Carolina—a team who was an out away from elimination—is the team to beat in the top half of the bracket (WV-TROY, NC-OLE MISS). ➤Trading Picks: Georgia (26¢), NC (21¢)

Click here to trade on College Baseball D1 Champion at Kalshi

The 2026 RBC Canadian Open teed off from TPC at Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course) in Caledon, Ontario on Thursday, June 11 and the tourney will run through Sunday, New Zealand’s Ryan Fox won this event last year in an upset of sorts and with it, the $9,800,000 purse.

Last week in the Memorial Tournament at The Course That Jack Built—Muirfield Village Golf Club—in Dublin, Ohio, JJ Spaun, Wyndham Clark, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ryan Gerard all shot opening round 67s (-5) to tie for the lead, but it was longshot JT Poston who won in a playoff. 

Before tee off, traders at Kalshi liked Brit Tommy Fleetwood (6.7%), Matt Fitzpatrick (5.9%), Sam Burns (5.2%), Wyndham Clark (3.5%), Kristoffer Reitan (3.4%), Colin Morikawa (3.2%), Brooks Koepka (2.8%), Justin Rose (2.7%), Dane Nicolai Højgaard (2.7%), and Robert MacIntyre (2.5%).

➤Trading Thoughts: American sensation Scheffler scuffled at the Memorial at Muirfield Village, a tournament he had won two straight times and played better than any other golfer in PGA history. American Wyndham Clark—#1 on Puts per Hole (1.69)—has been solid for two straight tourneys.

And it’s no rumors that Englishman Tommy Fleetwood is also playing well (#8 ranked on PGA Tour), and with so many big names missing this weekend and waiting for the US Open, I like his chances. ➤RBC Canadian Open Trading Picks: Wyndham Clark, Tommy Fleetwood

Next week, we will look at the PGA’s third major of the year, the 2026 US Open from Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York where usual links suspects Scheffler (15%) and McIlroy (10%) were leading in trading in a market that had already seen some $7 million in volume (June 4).

Click here to trade on the PGA RBC Canadian Open at Kalshi 

There’s a nice National League (NL) game with the Phillies (36-31, 17-14 Road) traveling to American Family Field (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin to play the Brewers (41-24, 21-13 Home) in a nationally televised game on Saturday (FS1, MLBtv, 7:15 ET/6:15 CT/4:15 PT).

The starting scheduled pitchers for the game from a distance were RHP Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA) for Philadelphia with LHP Shane Drohan (3-1, 3.11 ERA) slated to get the pill for the Brew Crew, but always check the Probable Starting Pitchers on MLB gameday. Things always change.

In the 2026 World Series winner market at DraftKings Predictions, Christian Yelich and the Milwaukee Brewers were traders’ #5 choice (behind LAD, NYY, ATL SEA) at +1329 (Yes, No -2400) with Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies #6 choice at +1567 (No -3233) on June 5.

➤Trading Thoughts: Referencing the 2025 MLB H2H results between the Brewers and Phillies, we see Milwaukee was 4-2 vs Philadelphia last season, with the Phils 2-1 at Milwaukee (14 RF-13 RA) with Nola taking one of the L’s and the Brewers sweeping the Phillies in Philly (28 RF-11 RA).

All but one of these 6 meetings (PHI 2-0) saw 7 runs or more (12, 8, 24, 7, 18, 9, 2) with the games averaging 13.3 RPG. With Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber (MLB-leading 23 HR, 40 RBI) leading off, and Nola rocked his last 2 starts, the Under is in jeopardy. ➤Trading Pick: Phillies-Brewers Over

Click here to trade on MLB games at Robinhood

The 2026 Formula One (F1) season continues this weekend with Round 7 and the Barcelona (Catalunya) Grand Prix from the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain 

In Round 6 at the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix at the Circuit de Monaco in the principality of Monaco on Sunday, June 7, it was Kimi Antonelli who won for a 5th straight time (2:23:31.243)—in another F1 pick we nailed for you here at TPR— increasing his point lead in the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Standings.

At Polymarket, Andrea Kimi Antonelli (48%), George Russell (25%), Max Verstappen (10%), Lewis Hamilton (7%), Charles Leclerc (5%), Lando Norris (5%), Oscar Piastri (5%), Sergio Pérez (1%), Liam Lawson (1%), Oliver Bearman (1%), and Isack Hadjar (1%) make up the winner market.

➤Trading Thoughts: Young Italian rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli has been simply mind-boggling so far this season with the 19-year-old winning an amazing 5 straight races (China GP, Japan GP, Miami GP, Canada GP, Monaco GP), in pure F1 legend Max Verstappen-style, circa 2021-2024.

F1 Constructors’ team Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 is now perfect 6-0 this season, with Italian teen sensation Andrea Kimi Antonelli winning the last five races now with teammate George Russell winning the opening Australian Grand Prix on March 8. ➤Trading Picks: Kimi Antonelli 48¢

 Click here to trade on the 2026 F1 Barcelona (Catalunya) GP: Driver Winner at Polymarket

The NASCAR Cup Series season continues with the running of the 2026 The Great American Getaway 400 from the 2.5-mile (4.0 km) oval Pocono Raceway (Asphalt) in Long Pond, Pennsylvania on Sunday afternoon (3 EDT/12 PDT, TV—Prime Video, HBO Max, RADIO—MRN).

At the Cracker Barrel 400 from the Nashville Superspeedway in Nashville, Tennessee, Denny Hamlin won in a race we gave you here at TPR after we saw Daniel Suárez) take the checkered flag at the Coca-Cola 600 from Charlotte Motor Speedway in Charlotte, NC the weekend before.

Kalshi traders like Denny Hamlin (31%), Tyler Reddick (13%), Kyle Larson (11%), Ross Chastain (11%), Chase Elliott (10%), Chase Briscoe (8%), Ryan Blaney (7%), Ty Gibbs (7%), and Carson Hocevar, Chris Buescher, Joey Logano, and William Byron—all 6%—to win the 160-lap race.

➤Trading Thoughts: This is the 16th race of the season, and with Hamlin the #2 driver in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Standings and chasing Michael Jordan’s Tyler Reddick and delivered for us twice, thrice is the goal and we like the Toyotas and the #11 due to a unique sentimental attachment.

Last year, Chase Briscoe (Joe Gibbs Racing) had enough gas in his Toyota to hold off Hamlin (#2) and Blaney (#3 NASCAR), to win the 2025 The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono followed by Bueschler (4th) and Elliott (5th). ➤Race Winner Picks: Denny Hamlin 31¢, Ryan Blaney 8¢

The next race up on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series calendar will be the NASCAR Truck Series from the Naval Base Coronado in San Diego California on Sunday, June 21 (TV—Prime Video, HBO Max; RADIO—SiriusXM, MRN, 4 EDT/3 CDT/2 MDT/1 PDT).

Click here to trade on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Great American Getaway Winner at Kalshi

 ➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the PGA US Open, the CFTC’s proposal to regulate PMs, Boxing Weight Class and Premier Lacrosse League Futures props from Kalshi, a World Cup Golden Ball winner looks as well as previews for select World Cup matches on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.