NBA Finals Up For Grabs After Knicks G1 Upset?
The 2026 NBA Finals tipped off this week on Wednesday when Jalen Brunson and the the New York Knicks (53-29) knocked off Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas on Wednesday night,105-95 for their 12th straight victory.
There will be no Sunday games played for the first time since 1970 when Taylor Swift’s Mother was 11 years old and you wondered if The Man would ever say anything about UFOs. Why? Only God knows why. Or maybe because the WC starts in June with USA-Paraguay on Sunday, June 12.
Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and NY (12-2 POST) got here by sweeping the Cavaliers in the ECF (4-0) as the Knicks won 11 straight, continuing to thrash their opposition by record margins in this 2026 NBA Postseason (+22.5 PPG). It’s the Knicks first NBA Finals appearance since 1999.
If you didn't come to party don't bother knockin' on my door
I got a lion in my pocket and baby, he's ready to roar, yeah, yeah
French superstar Wembanyama (7-foot-4, 80-inch wingspan) and the Spurs eliminated the defending NBA champion Thunder in the WCF (4-3) to set up the reality—like the NHL—of a new champ being crowned. The Panthers and Thunder dominated, but that was Then and this is Now.
2026 NBA FINALS SCHEDULE
Game 1—Wednesday June 3—Knicks 105 Spurs 95
Game 2—Friday June 5, Knicks at Spurs
Game 3—Monday, June 8, Spurs at Knicks
Game 4—Wednesday, June 10, Spurs at Knicks
Game 5*—Saturday, June 13, Knicks at Spurs
Game 6*—Tuesday, June 16, Spurs at Knicks
Game 7*—Friday, June 19, Knicks at Spurs
>All games tip off on ABC at 8:30 EDT/7:30 CDT/6:30 MDT/5:30 PDT | * If necessary
With the NBA Finals heating up and the SpaceX IPO just days away, one opportunity is drawing serious attention from investors before the window closes.
The S-1 Is Live. You Have 22 Days.
SpaceX filed its S-1.
June 12 is now confirmed. $75 billion. Ticker SPCX. The largest IPO in history.
You will not get shares. The 21-bank syndicate already locked them up.
But the S-1 just exposed the one company Musk cannot operate without.
It's publicly traded. It's still cheap. And in 22 days, the whole world will know its name.
Dylan Jovine is giving it away — free — before the window closes.
Now, on to how the prediction markets are pricing the series after Game 1.
2026 NBA Finals Champion Betting Review
For the NBA Finals series, traders at Kalshi have now made Jalen Brunson and the red-hot New York Knicks (54%) the favorites to become the new league champs over the San Antonio Spurs (46%) after the aforementioned G1 upset as host SA blew a 14-point 3Q lead on Wednesday.
Before Wednesday night in 2026 NBA Finals Game 1 in Cinderella City, the Spurs were trading at 63% with the Knicks at 37% with the Total (points) trading at 217.5. At Polymarket, still finding its trading in the US, this market had $409,661,630 in trading volume on June 3. Nothing big, Bubba.
➤Trading Thoughts: This could be a very entertaining NBA Finals the way Mikal Bridges and the rested Knicks head in after everyone in the world had assumed the WCF winner would be a huge favorite in this best-of-7 series which could be boring compared to the Spurs-Thunder WCF.
BEFORE GAME 1—POLYMARKET
AFTER GAME 1—POLYMARKET
Now that NY stole Game 1 and can take a 2-0 lead with another win in Game 2 (today), can the Spurs rebound and not head to the Big Apple in a Big Hole? As you can see from the screenshots above, the favorite to win the 2026 NBA Championship flipped almost 20% after Game 1.
The embarrassing depth SA has with guys like Stephon Castle (19.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG), De’Aaron Fox (16.4 RPG, 5.9 APG), Dylan Harper (13.1 PPG), Devin Vassell (13.0 PPG), Julian Champagnie (11.3 PPG), and Luke Kornet (4.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) will likely frustrate the visitors from the Big Apple.
With both teams scoring so much—SA 119.8 PPG and NYK 116.5 PPG—and SA needing to even the series up to avoid pressure, the pace should be frenetic and both teams should shoot a bit better. Wemby was just 6-for-21 from the field. This one’s best just watched. Trading Picks: None
With the Knicks and Spurs going at it tonight, another massive event is set to go off on June 12 — and the window to get ahead of it is closing fast.
June 12: The Biggest Buying Spree In History?
On June 12, Elon Musk is set to take SpaceX public…
And I believe it will trigger the biggest buying spree in history.
That’s why you must get in now BEFORE the IPO. (Click here and I’ll show you how.)
IPO day will be complete madness.
Shares could double, triple, or more during that first day of trading.
Which is why I’m urging you to get in NOW…
And get ahead of the masses.
On to the other big NBA market — who wins Finals MVP, and where does LeBron land next season.
2026 NBA Finals MVP Winner Betting Review
In the 2026 NBA Finals MVP Winner, there are only two guys traders are banking on in SA Spurs stud C Victor Wembanyama (42%, -20%) and NY Knicks playmaker-scorer Jalen Brunson (49%, +16%). In the beginning, God created the Guard. On the second day, he created the Center.
The longshot here is Knicks C Karl-Anthony Towns (7%), Knicks F OG Anunoby (2%), and Spurs F Stephon Castle (2%). But what the exchange sorely needs are markets for players like Harper, Vassell, and Champagnie.
Wemby casts a long shadow, literally and figuratively, but the Spurs “role players” have been great.
BEFORE GAME 1—POLYMARKET
AFTER GAME 1—POLYMARKET
➤Trading Thoughts: This could be a very entertaining NBA Finals with the way that the upstart Knicks headed in after everyone in the world assumed the WCF winner would be a huge favorite in this best-of-7 series which could ultimately be boring compared to the Spurs-Thunder WCF.
With so many scoresheet stats to be stuffed, it’s hard not to see young Wemby (26/12 G1) having his big moment, but KAT (18/12 G1) and Mitchell Robinson did a great job defensively on him and KAT has great upside and value at this low (‘Yes’) price. ➤NBA MVP Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns 8¢
LeBron James’ Next NBA Team Market at Kalshi
There aren’t that many big names who are Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) in the NBA this offseason, but besides Norman Powell (MIA), Rui Hachimura (LAK), and Tobias Harris (DET), there’s a 41-year-old named LeBron James (LAK) out there who could turn many teams around.
The NBA’s all-time leading scorer with 43,440 points, King James has dribbled balls for the Cleveland Cavaliers (2003-2010, 2014-2016) near his hometown of Akron, Ohio, the Miami Heat (2010-14), and the Los Angeles Lakers (2018-2026), and with his contact up, he has a decision.
Maybe not as overblown as previous “decisions,” this one will likely be the last decision LBJ ever makes. At Kalshi, traders can trade on LeBron James’ Next Team at the popular exchange, his current team, the Lakers or Retires (59%) leads followed by the Cavaliers (26%), Steph Curry and the Warriors (11%), the West champion Spurs (4%), and the East champion New York Knicks (3%).
➤Trading Thoughts: This is easy and I can see why the money is on James (23.2 PPG) staying in Lalalaad. Why? He’s played for the Lakers since 2018 and he made a big deal about wanting to play with his son, Bronny, who is signed with the team through 2026-27 season and has improved.
LeBron also has his $37 million mansion in Beverly Hills and his entertainment and production studio (The SpringHill Company) in LA, and the weather is usually great unless of course the city is on fire or the Santa Ana winds are in a foul mood. Why not LA? The West is nasty with OKC and SA.
Why Cleveland? It’s his hometown, the roster has guys like Donovan Mitchell and James Harden and made the ECF, he’s already played there twice and led them to their only NBA Championship in 2017, and winning the ECF for the next decade will probably be easier than winning the WCF.
Why not Cleveland? It’s Cleveland. Bad weather. NY sounds romantic but it’s nuts for a kid from the Midwest and Golden State sounds interesting but LBJ (41), Steph Curry (38), Draymond Green (26), Al Horford (29), and Jimmy Butler (36) would need in-game B12 shots, nurses, and a miracle.
LBJ playing for SA is interesting. With the game’s new superstar, Victor Wembanyama (23.1/11.4) and young kangaroos like Stephon Castle (19.2 PPG), De’Aaron Fox (18.0 PPG), Devin Vassell (13.7 PPG), Dylan Harper (13.0 PPG), Julian Champagnie (10.1 PPG), and Keldon Johnson (9 PPG), wow?
➤LeBron Next Team Picks: Lakers or Retires, Yes, 62¢, Spurs Yes, 4¢, Cavaliers No 74¢
Kalshi Now Set to Offer Perpetual Futures Trading
On Friday, May 29, Kalshi announced it will be launching perpetual futures contracts (perps), soon giving investors in the United States the ability to trade on Crypto Perpetual Futures on the popular prediction market. This will make Kalshi the first company in the US to have perpetuals.
Regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is always a huge step for new markets in the expanding space, and Kalshi went through all the legal loopholes—like it did in getting its event contracts regulated by the CFTC—and now has another product in its line.
The co-founder and CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour said, “This marks Kalshi’s evolution from prediction market leader to next-gen derivatives exchange. Onshore, safe, and regulated perps will improve capital allocation and risk management for countless American businesses."
“We've been building Kalshi toward a vision that every important question about the world should have a market,” 30-year-old Lebanese-American entrepreneur Mansour continued. “Prediction markets were the first chapter. They proved the model: people want to trade their convictions.”
“Perpetual futures are the next chapter. They remove a constraint. If a prediction market is a photograph of what the world thinks right now, a perpetual is a film—continuously updated, never ending, always present.”
—Tarek Mansour
Now one of the fastest-grow asset classes in history, perpetuals grew from an annual volume of $29 trillion in 2023 to $90 trillion last year offshore, and were closed off to American institutions until now, a bit like sportsbooks offering online trading offshore before the PASPA pimple popped.
Perpetuals are futures contracts that have no expiration date and simply track whether or not the price of a specific asset will speculatively go up or down, thus the "...continuously updated, never-ending...” poetry from Mister Mansour. Like having a girlfriend vs having a wife to a degree?
Will There Be a Euphoria: Season 4 on HBO?
Fans were elate to see the edgy drama Euphoria return for Season 3 on Home Box Office (HBO) in April, and we even handicapped the ‘Who Will Die in Euphoria Season 3?’ at Polymarket here where we saw Nate Jacobs (100%) buried alive and bitten by a massive snake to end his character arc.
After the Sunday, May 31 episode of the show (“In God We Trust”), thoughts that this Season 3 would be a wrap on the show—which returned in April for eight episodes after last airing back in 2022—quickly turned into speculation that HBO probably wouldn’t make a Euphoria: Season 4.
Why? Euphoria star, Rue Bennett (Zendaya), died in the episode, as did her supplier and topless bar owner Alamo Brown, his enforcer G, and Laurie. That leaves Jules Vaughn (Hunter Schafer), Cassie Howard (Sydney Sweeney) and sister Lexie (Maude Apatow), and Maddy Perez (Alexa Demie).
The Euphoria: Season 3 debut (“Andale”) saw a 44% increase over the Euphoria: Season 2 debut with the show getting 8.5m viewers in the US. Since its premiere on April 12, Euphoria held the #1 spot globally on HBO. Screenwriters pretty much killed a potential S4 with the death of show star Rue.
The Memorial Tournament Tees Off on Thursday
The 2026 PGA Memorial Tournament will tee off from the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio this Thursday, June 4 and run through Sunday, June 7 (CBS, ESPN+, Golf Channel, Paramount+). Golf legend Jack Nicklaus founded this par 72, 7,569-yards tournament in 1976.
This PGA tourney—celebrating its 50th year—is unique in that only 72 or 73 players are invited, one of five on the tour that are invite-only. Top-ranked Scottie Scheffler won the $20,000,000 purse last year. Practice rounds started Monday and run through Wednesday (June 3) in Dublin.
Kalshi traders have Scottie Scheffler (22%) as the favorite to win (and repeat) followed by back-to-back The Masters winner Rory McIlroy (6.2%), Ludvig Åberg (5.7%), Cameron Young (4.4%), Russell Henley (4.3%), Xander Schauffele (4.3%), and Si Woo Kim (4.1%).
Longer shots included Valspar Championship and RBC Heritage winner Matt Fitzpatrick (3.5%), Tommy Fleetwood (2.6%), Patrick Cantlay (2.4%), Hideki Matsuyama (2.1%), JJ Spaun (2.2%), Justin Thomas (2.2)%, Alex Smalley, Chris Gotterup, Jordan Spieth, and Sam Burns, all at 1.5%
➤Trading Thoughts: Scheffler has been impressive this year and one has to think the number of close finishes (2nd place) he’s had will motivate him more moving forward. Last year, the American won by 4 strokes, beating out Benjamin Griffin to win at Muirfield Village a second straight time.
Xander Schauffele, the #8th-ranked linksman on the tour has also been consistently impressive, with the 32-year-old American tying for 9th- (The Masters) and 7th-place (PGA Championship) in the first two majors of the year. American Collin Morikawa hasn’t been the same since a Back issue.
One guy in great form is Swede sensation Ludvig Åberg, with the 23-year-old registering four Top 5 finishes in his last 5 tournaments (T4-T5-T4-T21-T5) heading into the Charles Schwab Challenge. But the bottom line here is that statistically, this has been Scheffler’s best event in his career.
So the #1-ranked Scheffler is mad that he has been so close lately and no one in PGA history (over 5 events) has played any course better than Scottie has played Muirfield. Everything points to him here. ➤Trading Picks: Scottie Scheffler Yes 22c, Ludvig Åberg, Yes 5.7¢, Xander Schauffele, Yes 4.3¢
2026 FIFA World Cup ‘The Best 4 Lists’
Best 4 Teams: Argentina, England, France, Spain
Best 4 Players: Yamal (ESP), Mbappé (FRA), Dembélé (FRA), Kane (ENG)
Best 4 OGs: Messi (ARG), Ronaldo (POR), Neuer (GER), Modrić (CRO)
Best 4 HCs: Deschamps (FRA), Koeman (NED), Bielsa (URU), Dalić (CRO)
Best 4 GKs: Martínez (ARG), Courtois (BEL), Neuer (GER), Alisson (BRA)
Best 4 D’s: Hakimi (MOR), Magalhães (BRA), van Dijk (NED), Rüdiger (GER)
Best 4 Scorers: Kane (ENG), Haaland (NOR), Mbappé (FRA), Dembélé (FRA)
Best 4 Groups: Group D, Group F, Group G, Group I
Best 4 Nicknames: Socceroos (AUS), The Seleção (BRA), Les Bleus (FRA), Bafana Bafana (RSA)
Best 4 SA: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay
Best 4 Africa: Morocco, Senegal, Egypt, South Africa
Best 4 Underdogs: Morocco, Senegal, Ecuador, Switzerland
Best 4 Bet Values: Netherlands, Portugal, Brazil, Croatia
4 to Watch: Mané (SEN), Alvarez (ARG), Olise (FRA), Pedri (ESP)
4 Who Might Not Score: Cape Verde, Curaçao, DR Congo, Ghana
4 Teams Missing In Action: Italy, Poland, Denmark, Slovakia
Best 4 ARS: Raya (ESP), Magalhães (BRA), Saka (ENG), Gyökeres (SWE)
Best 4 CFC: Pedro (BRA), James (ENG), Cucarella (ESP), Fernández (ARG)
Best 4 BAR: Yamal (ESP), Rapinha (BRA), Pedri (ESP), de Jong (NED)
Best 4 RM: Mbappé (FRA), Courtois (BEL), Bellingham (ENG), Vini Jr (BRA)
Best 4 BM: Neuer (GER), Rüdiger (GER), Olise (FRA), Kane (ENG)
Best 4 PSG: Dembélé (FRA), Hakimi (MOR), Vitinha (POR), Marquinhos (BRA)
Best 4 IM: Dumfries (NED), Thuram (FRA), Martínez (ARG), Çalhanoglu (TUR)
Best Names: Nectarios Triantis (GRE), Harry Kane (ENG), Promise David (CAN)
2026 FIFA World Cup Group G, Group H Previews
After looking at World Cup Groups A-F in the last volume of The Prediction Report, we continue our microanalytical look at the 2026 FIFA World Cup groups in this issue for the tournament which kicks off in less than a week (June 11) in the US, Canada, and Mexico and runs through July 19.
Group G—GK Thibaut Courtois and Belgium (68%, Kalshi) are the big favorites in the FIFA World Cup Group G Winner prediction markets with Romelu Lukaku and the Red Devils the traders favorites over Egypt (18%), Iran (12%), and New Zealand (4%) following in order on May 29.
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a weak group and a good draw for Belgium, who with MF Kevin De Bruyne and F’s Jérémy Doku and Leandro Trossard should be able to outscore We Are At War Iran?, the All Whites and Captain Mo Salah and Egypt. ➤Group G Winner Pick: Belgium 68¢
➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group G Trend Pick: Belgium over NZ on June 28 (NZ 1-6-1 in 2025)
Group H—Spain (54%) is the heavy favorite here with sparkplug Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and GK David Raya the obvious FIFA World Cup Group H Winner pick in this group over Uruguay (20%), Saudi Arabia (3%), and the Tubarões Azuis (Blue Sharks) of Cape Verde (1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Dani Olmo, Mikel Oyarzabal, Mikel Merino, Fabián Ruiz, and La Furia Roja face Uruguay in the biggest match on June 26 in Mexico, and if Darwin Núñez and La Celeste (The Sky Blue) can win or draw, maybe they steal Group H? ➤Group H Winner Pick: Uruguay 20¢
➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group H Trend Picks: Spain -2 over Cape Verde (June 15), Uruguay -2 over Cape Verde (June 21)
2026 FIFA World Cup Group I, Group J Previews
Group I—WC faves France (68%) should be the FIFA World Cup Group I Winner, but this is a deceptively strong group with Norway (24%), and Senegal (11%) also likely to qualify for the KO Stage. Iraq (<1%) will struggle and the Lions of Mesopotamia may be a good team to bet against.
➤Trading Thoughts: There are three key matches to watch in this group, France vs Senegal (June 16) and Norway vs Senegal (June 22), both at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford NJ, and Norway vs France (June26) at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA in what may be the determining game.
Didier Deschamps has an embarrassment of riches on Les Bleus attack with darts like Captain Mbappé—a candidate for the Golden Boot—Olise, Thuram, Kanté, Dembélé, Doué, and Barcola, the last three just winning their second straight UEFA Champions League title.
The Lions de la Téranga made the Quarterfinals of the 2002 FIFA World Cup, shocking the world, and with Sadio Mané and the hearts of lions, could surprise here, but Erling Haaland and Norway are also good and that one could be a 0-0 snoozer in Jersey. ➤Group I Winner Pick: France 67¢
➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group I Trend Picks: Norway over Iraq (June 16), Senegal over Iraq (June 22), France -1 over Iraq (June 26)
Group J—This is another lopsided group, loaded with A’s, including Lionel Messi and the defending World Cup champions Argentina (81%), Austria (19%), Algeria (9%) and Jordan (1%) with La Albiceleste (The Selection) the overwhelming Group J Winner Pick at Polymarket.
➤Trading Thoughts: La Albiceleste are still loaded with Lionel Messi (198 caps, 116 goals), GK Emiliano Martínez (58), F Lautaro Martínez (36), Julián Alvarez (51), and Nicolás Otamendi (130), and could very well repeat and bring a 4th Jules Rimet Trophy back to soccer-loving Argentina.
Messi—now plying his wares for Inter Miami CF in the MLS—and La Albiceleste (The White and Sky Blue) will cruise through its tepid Group J, with matches against Algeria (June 16), Austria (June 22), and Jordan (June 27) all providing great chances to back La Selecccion.
Argentina had allowed just 1 goal (Mauritania) before heading into Friendlies against Honduras (June 6) and Iceland (June 9), after losing to Ecuador on September 9, 2025 (16 GF-1 GA) when we were still young and semi-delusional about refined sugar. ➤Group J Winner Pick: Argentina 74¢
➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group J Trend Picks: Argentina over Algeria (June 16), Argentina over Jordan (June 27)
2026 FIFA World Cup Group K, Group L Previews
Group K—This group seems clear cut, with Cristiano Ronaldo and favorites Portugal (65%) the likely FIFA World Cup Group K Winner with Colombia (28%) also likely headed to the KO Stage with the DR Congo (5%) and Uzbekistan (3%) likely to have trouble scoring in the Group matches.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Portugal v Colombia match at Miami Gardens, FL on June 27 should determine the Group K winner and with GK Diogo Costa, D João Cancelo, a midfield with Vitinha, Neves, Silva, and Fernandes, and an attack with CR7 and João Félix, Seleção das Quinas has it all.
Two good days to make some money are June 17—taking Portugal to beat Congo and Colombia to alphabetize Uzbekistan—and June 23, taking the same two, backing CR7 (143 career goals) and Portugal vs the White Wolves and Colombia vs Léopards. ➤Group K Winner Pick: Portugal 65¢
➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group K Picks: Portugal vs Colombia Under 2.5 (June 27)
Group L— In the World Cup Group F Winner market, Harry Kane and England (70%), Croatia (21%), Ghana (7%) and Panama (2%) are the trader’s choices at Kalshi, and expect just The Three Lions (#4 in the FIFA World Soccer Rankings) and Kockasti (The Checkered Ones) to advance.
➤Trading Thoughts: England has never had a better squad with guys like GK Pickford, James, Rice, Bellingham, Sayo, Rashford, and Henderson along with scorer and Captain Kane, but this team is just 0-1-1 in 2002 (Friendlies) and netminder Pickford may be able to be scored upon.
OG AMF Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić (38 goals), Andrej Kramarić (36 goals) and Croatia (#11 FIFA) always has a strange magic in tourneys, and at 21¢, can’t be passed. England and Croatia (7-1-0 in 2025) face off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX on June 17. ➤Group L Winner Pick: Croatia 21¢
➤2026 FIFA World Cup Group L Picks: Croatia over Panama (Jun 23), Croatia over Ghana (Jun 27)
NASCAR Cup Series Revs in Michigan on Sunday
The 16th race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season sees the boys driving circles at the Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, Michigan in the 2026 FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday (TV—Prime, HBO Max, RADIO—SiriusXM, MRN, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
At the Cracker Barrel 400 from the Nashville Superspeedway in Nashville on May 31, it was Denny Hamlin who took home the checkered flag holding off his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe in another winning NASCAR pick from TPR for you readers.
Polymarket NASCAR bettors are backing Denny Hamlin (21%), Kyle Larson (18%), Christopher Bell (15%), Tyler Reddick (11%), Ty Gibbs (8%), Chase Briscoe (8%), Chase Elliott (7%), Ryan Blaney (5%), William Byron (5%), and Carson Hocevar (4%) to win the 200-lap, 400-mile race.
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, Toyota performed great in the Wolverine State, taking three of the top five spots in Denny Hamlin (1st place), Ty Gibbs (3rd place), and Bubba Wallace Jr (4th place). Hamlin (#2 2026 NASCAR Cup Standings) and his Toyota has been running very well this Spring.
With the magical #11 Hamlin—who co-owns the 23XI Racing Team with Michael Jordan—and Joe Gibbs Racing being so juicy to traders, looking to win the Driver’s title this season and having won this race last year, we roll on. ➤Race Winner Picks: Denny Hamlin 21¢, Ty Gibbs 8¢
➠In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we dedicate the whole issue to the opening of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, including looks at the top players to watch, the best 12+12 Group Stage picks, six Underdogs to watch, a USMNT look and previews of the first four World Cup matches. Thanks for reading and subscribing and best of luck trading. Homework is everything.