Kalshi Asks Netflix to Take Down Doc Trailer
There has been much in the news about the new Netflix “Instadocs: The Prediction Games," and prediction market Kalshi sending a cease-and-desist letter to the popular streaming company to please take down the trailer for the episode, which debuted on the service on Sunday, July 26.
They probably didn’t say “please.”
The trailer (provided below) shows four guys in Las Vegas watching the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final between Argentina and Spain on July 19, and partying at the Mirage Mega Mansion. The trailer insinuates that they have made a bunch of easy money trading on prediction markets.
One of the guys appearing in the trailer shows his smartphone, and an image of a $5,000 trade (betslip) he claimed he made on Kalshi on Spain to win the World Cup. Clearly, by the payout, the bet had to have been made way, way, way before the FIFA World Cup Final, if it was even made.
A Netflix spokesman said the trade was made on Kalshi in May of 2025—before the Nevada court order. Sleuths on Twitter say the liquidity in that market in May 2025 (Volume $510) would have made it impossible to turn $5K into the win amount. Others said the betslips didn’t look like that.
Kalshi marketing lead Brandon Beckhardt said, “The preview they [Netflix] just released features a Kalshi trade slip that’s completely fabricated—it looks nothing like our UI. And he added the betslip shown on the phone in the trailer looked to be “either photoshopped or AI-generated.”
In the cease-and-desist order, Kalshi distanced itself from the claim that the trade on the 2026 FIFA World Cup winners, Spain, was made on its platform in 2025. And on Monday, said the trade never happened when Life doesn’t imitate Art. Or maybe, when “Art” doesn’t imitate (real) Life.
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This is a documentary about prediction markets, and the men in the trailer are not featured again in the 36-minute episode. With sports trading on Kalshi (and Poymarket) currently barred in Nevada, the company accused Netflix of falsely portraying the New York City-based company.
“These false statements jeopardize Kalshi’s legal standing in litigation that is highly material to Kalshi’s business,” stated the letter, which noted that the company is concerned that the trailer could expose it to court sanctions or other penalties, “ Kalshi whined about the Netflix trailer.
In the letter to Netflix, Kalshi head of litigation Jovalin Dedaj said. “The clip misleadingly indicates that the individual is trading sports event contracts while located in Nevada, despite the court order prohibiting such activity. However, upon close inspection, the displayed receipt in the Netflix trailer appears to have been entirely fabricated.”
Netflix clearly wanted to make an instant soup from the world’s hottest trading markets (PMs) and the planet’s biggest sporting event, the FIFA World Cup. In the rush to get it online as quickly as possible and make it look like someone won big betting on Spain, the trailer seemed very scripted.
So Netflix looks lame using this trailer and traders (most) who aren't actually background-checked as avid prediction market guys as promotional material. Many who have seen the documentary say it is actually pretty decent and has nothing to do with the men featured in the trailer set in Sin City.
Kalshi also looks pretty petty making a big deal out of the Nevada angle. Sharp bettors were all over the fact that the betslip was likely a fake one, and part of the Netflix “prediction markets can be easy money” narrative. There is no such thing as easy money in betting. We all know this truth.
The courts here in Nevada certainly won’t be changing their posture or position because of a bad documentary trailer. But the new, third-party geofencing may hinder before the football season kicks off next month. Still, with things like proxies and VPN’s, where there’s a will, there’s a way.
Kalshi Will Stop Offering All Contracts in Nevada
On Monday, July 27, after the dust cleared from the weekend's Netflix-Kalshi kerfuffle, the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) reported that it had reached an agreement with Kalshi to stop offering all outcome contracts in the Silver State, starting on August 12.
Since February 17, the state of Nevada—long ruled by the NGCB and the powerful gaming lobby—and Kalshi have been battling in the courts like Siamese fighting fish. The NGCB says Kalshi is offering illegal gambling in the state.
Kalshi is also in similar legal battles in a handful of other states, and like almost everything in the USA in 2026, we have found a way to polarize this argument. Is the dress blue and black or white and gold? Drake or Kendrick Lamar? Most people don’t care.
The bottom line is that although prediction markets involve putting money down and either profiting or losing on a given trade, they're not the same as the menus and operating styles of sportsbooks. This will end up in the Supreme Court one day, who knows when. This beat goes on.
The NGCB says Kalshi has agreed to third-party geofencing in Nevada by the August 12 deadline. The prediction market claimed the geofencing service it used before in the Silver State wasn’t effective.
About Netflix’s Instadocs and The Prediction Games
Launched in May 2026, Netflix plans to produce new “Instadocs” documentaries that “move at the speed of the story,” debuting as quickly as possible when public interest is at its peak. Fresh popcorn is always best, just like fresh The Rolling Stones music, fresh news, and fresh fish.
The Instadoc: The Prediction Games episode was the second to be released from Netflix, following Alex Murdaugh, Unconvicted (May 30). Featured in the 36-minute documentary episode are CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour.
More than just the hyped-up bad trailer, this documentary is definitely worth a watch for those in the prediction market game. Journalist and The Wisdom of Crowds author James Surowiecki is astutely featured and discusses three things in “The Dark Side of Prediction Markets.”
“So when you give people the chance to bet on pretty much anything, it gets complicated really fast.”
— James Surowiecki
Not as cerebral or as fun as listening to Pink Floyd’s The Dark Side of the Moon, Surowecki’s “The Dark Side of Prediction Markets” are Insider Trading, Gaming the System, and Altering (Actual) Reality—three trading areas we have proudly put a big spotlight on in this biweekly newsletter.
And we will continue to look at those and other serious problems—including many of the persistent ones Polymarket is having — in our next issue of The Prediction Report coming on Tuesday, August 4—in this still formative period for prediction markets in the United States.
The only way to watch Instadoc: The Prediction Games is to subscribe to Netflix. There is no word yet on what the third episode of Instadocs will be, but there is certainly no shortage of subject matter for Netflix to explore. It’s understandable why they timed this one with the World Cup.
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Will 2026 be the Hottest Year Ever? Nope.
Because there were no prediction markets or computers around in the early Cenozoic Era some 56 million years ago, we now live in an age when you can order a pizza and have it delivered by a drone or even dare to try to make money trading on the annual temperature of Mother Earth.
Stepping away from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum time in our planet’s evolution to become the big blue ball of water with islands of plastic garbage floating aimlessly amongst them that we are, we face a very warm Earth that gets warmer every year as ice continues to melt.
The hottest (air) temperature ever recorded came some 141 miles west of my plastic chair (not floating in an ocean) was at Furnace Creek Ranch in Death Valley, California, with a torrid 134.1° F (56.7° C) reading back on July 10, 1913, before the vast majority of us were ever born (or cloned).
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), last year, 2025, ranked as the #3 warmest ever (2.14° anomaly Fahrenheit), after the year before—2024—was the #1 warmest ever (2.23° anomaly), taking the record from the year before, 2023 (2.11° anomaly).
From 2015 to 2025, the Global Surface Temperature (GST) of our precious planet has seen the 10 highest yearly averages ever—2024, 2023, 2025, 2016, 2020, 2019, 2017, 2015, 2022, 2021—with 2028 somehow not making the sweaty cut.
Even with a Super El Niño in the forecast and already wreaking some wet and windy havoc, scientists at NOAA are giving 2025 a 66.1% chance to be the 4th-warmest ever, with 3rd-warmest (22.4%) and 2nd-warmest (6.6%) also getting some money.
Here is where the prediction markets come in. At Kalshi, traders are giving 2026 an aggressive 32% chance of being the warmest ever ($213,870 volume, July 26), while the smart folks in glasses (who are not bots or ocelots) give 2026 just a 0.1% chance of beating the record set in 2024.
So unless we see 22 volcanoes, 777 forest fires, and the Sun move 90 million miles closer to our heads and devices, this seems like pretty easy money, with people possibly suffering from heat stroke at the peak of the Summer and forgetting Math gives zero shits about what people think.
The first 6 months of 2026 would rank the year #3, but we all have a lot of complaining left to do.
☀️Will 2026 be the Hottest Year Ever? Pick: No, 68.9¢
Kalshi to Add Gold, Silver, Platinum Perps Trading
Kalshi announced last month that it intends to launch perpetual commodities futures markets on its exchange for the spot prices in precious metals markets for Gold, Silver, and Platinum, and that it had filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The request comes after the governing body over prediction markets granted Kalshi approval in May. These would be unique in that the derivative contracts never expire, unlike current trading on the three most popular precious metals, Gold, Silver, and Platinum.
Should these “perps” be approved by the CFTC—and expect them to—trading on these three precious metals contracts will only take place from Monday through Friday, 24 hours a day.
The Kalshi Commodities Hub now has 13 major commodities, including Copper, Nickel, Lithium, Diesel, Natural Gas, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and easily the world’s most important commodity, Coffee. No coffee, no life.
Will the spot prices of so-called “soft commodities” like Rice, Orange Juice, Cocoa, Cattle, Live Hogs, Cotton, and Wool be available in futures markets at Kalshi or other prediction markets? Or maybe even marijuana? Stay tuned as anything goes and Kalshi is on the cutting edge of this trading evolution.
Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
The Primetime Emmys from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, California, are coming up on Monday, September 14, 2026 (NBC, Peacock, 8 EDT/7 CDT/6 MDT/5 PDT), so we will continue our prediction market trading buildup to the big night where Mariska Hargitay will serve as host.
At Polymarket in the ‘Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series’ category in 2026, it’s the talented Coleman Domingo (63%) from the popular HBO hit Euphoria who is the justified favorite for his role as Ali Muhammad in the show’s last season. Domingo won this Emmy award last year.
Following Domingo were Jeff Hiller from Pluribus (7%), Ernest Harden Jr. from The Pitt (6%), Bradley Whitford from The Diplomat (5%), Jonathan Pryce from Slow Horses (5%), and Jeff Kober from The Pitt (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a no-brainer for several reasons, but you'd better act quick, or all of the prediction market bees will zap all of the pollen from the flowers and what was once a 63¢ contract (‘Yes’) will be a dollar in the blink of an eye or the click of the mouse, whichever you prefer.
Domingo’s acting as Ali in Seasons 2 and 3 of Euphoria was transfixing. With the show now going the way of titty bar owner G—in Ali’s retribution for his friend Rue’s (Zendaya) fatal drug OD—expect another Emmy in this category for both his work and respect for the HBO show.
🗽Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series Winner Pick: Coleman Domingo, Yes, 63¢
Which Streaming Service Will Win the Most Emmys?
Looking at the ‘Which Streaming Service Will Win the Most Emmys?’ category, HBO Max (69%) looks like the Emmy winner, with Netflix (23%), Apple TV (10.8%), and Hulu (<1%) all following in trading order on July 26, with $ 40,399 in trading volume at Polymarket.
Last year, HBO/HBO Max won 30 Emmys—9 in major categories—followed by Netflix (30), Apple TV (22), NBC (11), Disney+ (7), Peacock (5). Prime Video (5), CBS (4), ABC (3), FX (2), and YouTube (2). HBO/HBO Max also led in nominations in 2025 with 142 and leads again in 2026 with 122.
➤Trading Thoughts: With popular shows like The Pitt (25 nominations), Hacks (24), and DTF St Louis, and added muscle from shows like Real Time With Bill Maher, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Game of Thrones spinoff House of the Dragon, and The White Lotus, HBO is still the king.
Add in the new Larry David show produced by Barack Obama’s Higher Ground Productions, Life, Larry and the Pursuit of Unhappiness: An Almost History of America, and you see why HBO—mother of The Sopranos, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Succession, and Euphoria—still sits proudly on the throne like Mother of Dragons Khaleesi.
🗽Which Streaming Service Will Win the Most Emmys? Pick: HBO/HBO Max, Yes, 69¢
NCAAF: 2026 Big Ten Conference Winner
The sun is now setting later in the too-warm Summer evenings, which means we’re getting closer to the start of the 2026 NCAAF season. We already looked at the SEC last issue, so let’s tackle the XXL-sized Big Ten Conference, which suspiciously now has 18 teams, thus making 18 the new 10?
At Robinhood Predictions in the 2026 College Football Southeastern Conference Champion market, Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State (32¢) are the trader’s favorite, followed by Oregon (27¢), Curt Cignetti and defending national champions Indiana (24¢), USC (10¢), and Michigan (7¢).
The underdogs to win the Big Ten are Penn State (5¢), Washington (3¢), Iowa (2¢), Maryland (1¢), Michigan State (1¢), Maryland (1¢), Minnesota (1¢), Nebraska (1¢), Purdue (1¢), Northwestern (1¢), Illinois (1¢), Rutgers (1¢), and Wisconsin (1¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Indiana won the Big Ten last season, going 9-0 in conference and 16-0 overall en route to one of the greatest sports stories of the decade with the Hoosiers winning their first football national championship in the FBS behind Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.
The opponents in the Big Ten, Ohio State and Oregon, may be in the top three teams in the land, along with Indiana, and all three went an impressive 5-0 on the Road in Conference play last year.
The skinny? IU gets Ohio State in Bloomington (Oct. 17) while the Buckeyes get the Ducks in Columbus (Nov. 7). This seems like a good thing for the defending national champions. And OSU is at Texas (Sept. 12) and at a tough Iowa team (Oct. 3) on top of facing both Indiana and Oregon.
🏈2026 Big Ten Conference Champion Pick: Indiana, Bid 23¢, Ask 24¢ (July 29)
NL Manager of the Year Award a Wide Open Race
We extolled the virtues of investing in Don Mattingly ‘Yes’ contracts in the Phillies Next Manager market at Polymarket in the July 28 edition of The Prediction Report, and we are here to tell you that a Don Mattingly ‘Yes’ contract may be wise in another different market. But best act fast.
The market is the NL Manager of the Year. What once looked like promising profits in (Braves) Walt Weiss contracts has been replaced by a desire to get down on the interim Phillies manager Don Mattingly, who has taken the bearded NL East team from sad to gladness since taking over.
Atlanta’s Walt Weiss (19¢) is the favorite in this Futures Awards market over Mattingly (19¢) and Brewers’ brewmaster Pat Murphy (16¢). Pittsburgh's Don Kelly (15¢) and Washington’s Blake Butera (7¢) followed after some serious movement over the last three days.
Florida skipper Clayton McCullough (11¢), Chicago’s Craig Counsell (9¢), St Louis’ Oliver Marmol (9¢), San Francisco’s Tony Vitello (6¢), Cincinnati’s Terry Francona (4¢), Colorado’s Warren Schaeffer (3¢), New York’s Carlos Mendoza (2¢), and Arizona’s Torey Lovullo (1¢) followed.
Los Angeles’s Dave Roberts (1¢)—who has only guided Los Doyers to two straight World Series wins and leads the team with the best record in MLB now—and San Diego’s Craig Stammen (1¢) are dirt cheap while the exchange still lists Rob Thomson (1¢), but Mattingly replaced him.
➤Trading Thoughts: This is a three-manager race now, and will depend on how well the Phillies, Braves, and Brewers finish. The Fish have stunk of late, going 0-11 (July 10-25), falling under .500, and killing any momentum—and McCullough's chances at NL MOY—they worked so hard to get.
The Braves have been consistent all season, but if Philadelphia catches and overtakes Atlanta after the start the Phillies have made, the writers will want to reward the comeback narrative. Milwaukee has also been consistent in 2026, but the lack of drama in the NL Central will hurt Pat Murphy.
That’s sad, as Murphy (and Roberts) have been all you could want in a manager. But we’re talking about awards and what fans and the media see. Mattingly won it in 2010, guiding the Marlins to a miracle season. Now if they catch Atlanta? He wins. But the BrewCrew have been the better team.
⚾2026 NL Manager of the Year Winner Pick: Pat Murphy, Bid 11¢, Ask 16¢ (July 29)
French Ligue 1: 2027 Champions Preview
In less than a month, a freshly baked French Ligue 1 season will come out of the oven on August 21 when Marseille hosts Strasbourg as defending UEFA Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) look to win the league for a 15th time and its 5th time in a row.
Last year, PSG won Ligue 1, beating second-place Lens by 6 points (76-70) as Achraf Hakimi, Ousmane Dembélé and the beret boys won the UCL (Arsenal), French Ligue 1, Trophée des Champions (Marseille), UEFA Super Cup (Tottenham), and FIFA Intercontinental Cup (Flamengo).
Soccer Futures bettors at Polymarket like Les Parisiens again this campaign, with PSG at 87% at the prediction market (July 29), followed by Marseille (4%), Lyon (2%), Lens (2%), and Lille (2%).
Getting 1% of the ‘Yes’ love at Polymarket were Auxerre, Angers, Paris FC, Rennes, Monaco, Troyes, Brest, and Le Havre. Receiving even less love and money (<1%) were Lorient, Le Mans, Nice, and Strasbourg.
➤Trading Thoughts: There will be no big overhaul in the City of Lights, and there doesn’t need to be. The English Premier League, Spain’s LALIGA, Germany’s Bundesliga, and France’s Ligue 1 may get more of the limelight, but PSG is the best club in Europe and has been for the last three years.
The team saw MF Kang-in Lee (Atlético Madrid) and F Gonçalo Ramos (AC Milan) leave over the Summer. Still, rumors are that talented Spaniard Ferran Torres may join Kvicha Kvaratskelia, Dembélé, Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué, Moroccan legend Hakimi, and Vitinha in an already loaded attack.
⚽2027 French 1 Ligue Champion Pick: Paris Saint-Germain, Yes 87¢
Italian Serie A: 2027 Champions Preview
The Italian Serie A league will begin play in the country that graced us with pizza on August 22, with Matchweek 1 ushering in another new season. Last year, it was Inter Milan who rolled to the title, beating out second-place Napoli by 11 points (87-76) in a race that was over relatively early.
Inter Milan, Roma, and Como all earned 2026-27 UEFA Champions League berths, and AC Milan and Juventus will play in the Europa League, while 18th-place Cremonese, 19th-place Verona, and 20th-place Pisa (2-12-24, 26 GF-71 GA, -45 GD) were all relegated into the Mediterranean Sea.
At Polymarket, Lautaro Martínez and Inter Milan (51%) are the traders’ favorites in the Serie A: 2027 champion polymarket ($29,427 volume on July 25), followed by the Old Lady, Juventus (15%), Romelu Lukaku and Napoli (14%) and USMNT star Christian Pulisic and AC Milan (13%).
Roma (7%), Como (4%), Atalanta (2%), Venezia (1%), Frosinone (1%), Sassuolo (1%) and Bologna are the longshots. Traders say Fiorentina, Parma. Cagliari, Genoa, Lazio, Lecce, Torino, Udinese, and Monza have absolutely no chance (<1%) of doing anything but making a great sandwich.
➤Trading Thoughts: Marcus Thuram and Inter really improved last season, and were easily the best Serie A representatives in the UCL. Traders are spot on in buying ‘Yes’ here, with OG heavies Juve and Milan down a bit and Napoli not as strong as its championship run two years back.
Nico Paz and The Little Cannoli That Could, Como 1907 (4.7¢), are very intriguing, and I Lariani (Those from Lake Como) went 13-10-15 after being promoted from Serie B in 2024 to 20-11-7 in 2025, earning that aforementioned lucrative berth to play in the UCL this coming 2026-27 season.
⚽2027 Italian Serie Champion Picks: Inter Milan, Yes 51¢, Como, Yes, 4.7¢, Juventus, No 86¢
Red Sox in LA to Face the Dodgers on Sunday Night
It’s another Interleague matchup from one of MLB’s most historic stadiums, Dodger Stadium (Santa Ana Bermuda Grass) in Los Angeles, as the Dodgers (68-40, 32-20 Home) host the reborn Red Sox (56-51, 31-22 Road) on Sunday night (NBC, Peacock, 7:20 EDT/6:20 CDT/4:20 PDT).
The two-time defending champions are scheduled to send LHP Eric Lauer (5-5, 4.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) to the bump against Boston LHP Jake Bennett (6-3, 2.58 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). The Red Sox have done a great job getting back in the AL East and AL Playoffs race after a miserable start.
Lauer was so good against Los Doyers (7-2, 2.90 ERA) that the franchise brought him to Chavez Ravine from Toronto. Lifetime against the Red Sox in 5 appearances, Lauer is 1-0 with a 3.45 ERA, while 25-year-old rookie Bennett has never faced the Dodgers before.
At Kalshi, traders are giving Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and the Dodgers the best chance at making it three straight MLB championships (35%), with the Dodgers getting a 3.3% chance of winning the 2026 World Series. Wilson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, and Roman Anthony of the Red Sox are also getting a 3.3% chance of winning the 2026 World Series.
➤Trading Thoughts: These two teams played one series in the last 2025 MLB Regular Season, with Boston going 2-1 in 3 relatively low-scoring games (6.67 RPG) played at Fenway Park in July. Here in the Elysian Park neighborhood of Lalaland, it should be a different story.
Since the All-Star Break, the Red Sox have been 9-2 as they have climbed above the .500 mark and served notice to the Jays and rival Yankees they are also looking for a parking space. Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and LA are 6-4 since the break and have the best record right now (67-40).
⚾MLB Sunday Night MLB Picks: Dodgers
➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the persistent problems at Polymarket, the weekly Earnings Calendar, two more 2026 Emmy analyses and previews for the NCAAF Big 12, the 2026-27 German Bundesliga, the PGA Rocket Classic, and the 2026 NFL Hall of Fame Game.”