In this issue, we highlight the 2026 French Open, look at an Arizona judge’s positive ruling for Kalshi, DraftKings Prediction offering Combos, F1 Drivers’ and Constructors’ Champions market updates, EPL, US Open Cup Semifinals, UEFA Europa League Final and Coupe de France Final previews as well as a Blue Jays-Yankees preview from the Bronx on Wednesday.
Year’s Second Major Plays on Roland Garros Clay
The second major of the Tennis calendar year, the 2026 French Open just began on Saturday, May 16 at Stade Roland Garros (Clay) in Paris, France with both the Men and Women playing in Singles and Doubles play until June 7. The Women’s Final is set for June 6 with the Men’s Final on June 7.
Some news heading into the 125th French Open. Defending Men’s champion Carlos Alcaraz will miss the tournament with a wrist injury as will Britain’s Jack Draper (Knee) while Aryna Sabalenka (Lower Back) suffered an injury in Rome during a third-round loss and was looking to recover.
The tournament will keep using human line judges while most others have gone to the electronic line rulings and players will be allowed to use connected devices—like WHOOP bands—to access a larger range of performance-related information during matches this fortnight at Roland Garros.
Last year, Alcaraz was the Men’s champion in the Grand Slam event with American Coco Gauff (above) winning the Women's title. In the first major of the year Down Under and the Australian Open, Alcaraz beat Novak Djokovic in four sets while Elena Rybakina beat Sabalenka in three sets.
Heading in, Alcaraz was the #2-ranked ATP player while Sabalenka was the #1-ranked WTA player, so with those two superstars out (should Sabalenka miss) and legends like Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Serena and Venus Williams gone, the tourney lacks a little luster this time around.
In the United States, you can find the 2026 French Open on your TV on TNT and truTV with streaming on Max (formerly HBO Max). In France, France Télévisions and Prime Video will share the red clay coverage while Warner Brothers and Discovery hold the rights in Europe (Eurosport).
With two of the biggest stars sidelined in Paris, smart money is already moving on a very different kind of market with a hard deadline approaching.
Why BofA Is "Raiding" This $3.8B Gold Stock
While the mainstream media is obsessed with the headlines coming out of the Iran conflict...
Wall Street's "Smart Money" is quietly staging a raid on the physical gold market.
Bank of America just increased their position in one specific gold stock by 139%.
Jane Street boosted theirs by 159%.
Millennium Management added 122%.
These institutions aren't buying the metal…
They're buying the "Shadow Miner" sitting on 88 million ounces of gold—more than the national reserves of France and Italy combined.
They know that on May 29th, a legal deadline forces the paper gold market to face a 200-to-1 delivery shortage.
When the "Iran Discount" ends and the vault doors lock, this stock won't just move—it will reprice.
Now, on to who the prediction markets actually favor once the draw gets underway on the clay.
2026 French Open Men’s, Women’s Previews
Kalshi traders have top-ranked Jannik Sinner (73%) as their overwhelming favorite to win the French Open Men’s Singles title followed by Alexander Zverev (9%), Novak Djokovic (5%), Casper Ruud (4%), Arthur Fils (3%), Joao Fonseca (2%), Daniil Medvedev (2%), and Ben Shelton (2%).
Alcaraz is so good on clay and won here last year, so his absence will make it hard for some prediction market traders to bet on the Men’s bracket and hard for some fans to watch it unless it ends up being a Sinner-Djokovic Final. You can find the Men’s French Open bracket here.
In the Women’s French Open Singles winner market, Iga Świątek (27%), Aryna Sabalenka (25%), Elena Rybakina (11%), defending champion Coco Gauff (11%), Mira Andreeva (6%), and Marta Kostyuk (3%) are being given the best chance. Find the Women’s French Open bracket here.
The bigger underdogs predicted to prevail in Paris were Karolina Muchova (3%), Amanda Anisimova (2%), Jasmine Paolini (2%), Jessica Pegula (2%), Iva Jovic (2%), and American Naomi Osaka (2%) with Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina, and Qinwen Zheng all under 1% in trading.
➤Trading Thoughts: Sinner has been literally upbeatable in 2026, winning 29 straight matches in ATP Masters 1000 events and capturing 5 straight tournaments in a row (Paris 2025, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo, Madrid) with his last loss in a Masters 1000 event coming in October.
On the Women’s side, expect things to be more competitive and entertaining unless Sabalenka can’t go at Roland Garros. Świątek (5’9”) is brilliant on clay, but H2H vs Russian Rybakina (6’0”), the Polish princess is 6-6 and 1-2 on the clay surface. ➤Trading Picks: Sinner 73¢, Sabalenka 25¢, Rybakina 11¢
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Back to the prediction markets legal landscape: an Arizona judge just handed Kalshi a significant win.
Arizona Judge Says State Can Offer PMs For Now
In a big win for prediction markets in the Grand Canyon State, US District Judge Michael Liburdi permanently blocked Attorney General Kris Mayes from criminally charging Kalshi with violating Arizona state gaming laws by offering trading on the event-exchange in the Southwest state.
Liburdi wrote in an order granting a preliminary injunction that even though the regulation of gambling is“among the most rudimentary exercises of state police power,” he determined that federal law and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) precludes Arizona’s.
“Every time Congress has revisited the federal-state allocation of authority in this area, it has chosen to expand federal control,” Liburdi said of the case involving the trading of sports contracts in Arizona on Kalshi. And this was all beautiful music to the ears of CFTC head Michael Selig.
Libertarian Selig said on Twitter (X), “I applaud today’s action by Arizona’s District Judge, which reaffirms what we all know: the CFTC has full jurisdiction over prediction markets. We’ll keep pursuing action against any state that infringes upon our statutory authority.” Woof.
With Selig so staunch in his approach and the current administration all gung-ho about prediction markets and less regulation in the US, it’s easy to see the fights in the individual states will continue on but Selig will say “No, no, no.” North of Arizona in Nevada, the shoe’s on the other foot.
As the only state with an active, court-enforced ban, Kalshi is still illegal in Nevada after the Silver State issued a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order blocking Kalshi from operating in its state loaded with casinos. Nevada has also canceled a scheduled PM conference.
The commonwealth of Massachusetts is also fighting tooth-and-nail against prediction markets.
In the end, Selig has a lot of power here, and was appointed by the man who thinks he sits on the throne, President Donald Trump, and who has even more power. And the ultimate powers in all of this may be the Supreme Court, who lean to Trump, with some appointed by his Orangeness.
One day we may see this State vs Regulation of Prediction Markets issue in the Supreme Court, and Selig has welcomed that distinct and probably necessary possibility of more federal jurisdiction saying, “We’re happy to argue it all the way to the Supreme Court if necessary”
Prediction markets can rest assured that their federal government and quite possibly the US Supreme Court will be behind them for quite some time in this emerging and exciting space.
DraftKings Prediction Starts Offering “Combos”
What’s the difference between betting a parlay online at DraftKings DraftKings sportsbook and placing a combo at DraftKings Predictions? Well maybe the state you live in to start with and possibly the prices of the elements of the parlays or combos when you placed them.
Anyway, like Kalshi did before it, DraftKings Predictions has started offering “combos” on its prediction market which started on May 11 where traders now can bundle or group together various elements in an effort to either attain a big payout, enjoy the ride, or maybe a little of both.
These are just parlays under a different name with the event contracts acting as elements on the combo where you can mix Sides, Totals, and even Futures into a single, customized trade slip. If you want to mix the Yankees, Mets and Knicks in a Big Apple Combo, you can be the bartender now.
Great Moments in Mentions Markets History
Watching some of the elite Mentions markets traders like PredictionMarketTrader (Joel Holsinger) and locksy can not only be informative but it can also be a barrel full of laughs as HBO’s John Oliver (Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, Sundays, 10 EDT/PDT) has already found out.
On the April 19, 2026 episode on Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, Oliver examined the prediction market industry and featured a funny segment where he had some fun with locksy and his excitability during Mentions trading livestreams. Grab your earplugs, Bubba (1:20 mark).
Whether or not locksy makes your ears bleed, like PMT, he is a fun and informative trader and influencer to watch in the Mentions space. And like PMT, he is a Kalshi fan with a healthy head of hair who’s grinded out a profit in the early stages of his PM trading career by doing his homework.
When watching the ‘What Will Marco Rubio Say During His Press Briefing?’, it appeared the event was coming to an end and that Secretary of State Rubio wouldn’t take any more questions. But in typical press conference (and in Mentions market) fashion, there was one more question.
Below is what transpired as locksy miraculously profited $2,000 on a late “DJ” mention in a market (‘Yes’) that has fallen all the way to 1%. The strike ended up helping him have a profitable event and earn the honors of Kalshi’s #1 Mentions market trader (+$4,565) on its leaderboard that day.
F1 Drivers’, Constructors’ Winners Futures Updates
In past years, trading mid-season in Formula One (F1) racing was incredibly boring and slow, with Max Verstappen dominating the circuit and helping make both the F1 Drivers’ Champion and the F1 Constructors' futures markets very lopsided with absolutely no chance to profit or have fun.
But this 2026 F1 season is a different beast, with tightness in the races and the overall championships as well as three races canceled because of the thing going on in the strait of Hormuz that we are not calling a war but sort of is a war without the warriors and end game.
The season will resume next weekend with the Lenovo Canadian Grand Prix from the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve in Montréal, Quebec, Canada on Sunday, May 24 (Apple TV, Netflix, 4 EDT/3 CDT/2 MDT/1 PDT) and will have a preview and a Formula One pick for you loyal TPR readers.
In the F1 Drivers’ Champion market Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Yes +150, No -163), George Russell (Yes +257, No -270), Lando Norris (Yes +456, No -488), Max Verstappen (Yes +1329, No -1900), Oscar Piastri (Yes +1567, No -2400), and Charles Leclerc (Yes +1567, No -3233) were favorites.
In the F1 Constructors' Champion exchange at DraftKings Predictions, Mercedes (-285) was the buy followed by McLaren (+426), Ferrari (+1150), Red Bull Racing (+3233), and Haas (+9900).
➤Trading Thoughts: Italian rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli is a surprise for the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team which also features George Russell. See why traders bought Mercedes in May with much of the season left? ➤Trading Pick: Mercedes to Win Constructors’ Champion -285
Big Premier League Doubleheader on Tuesday
It is another must-win situation for Erling Haaland (26 goals) and Manchester City (23-8-5) in the English Premier League when the Citizens are at the Vitality Stadium (Grass) in Bournemouth, England to face AFC Bournemouth (13-16-7) on Tuesday (USA Network, 2:30 EDT/11:30 PDT).
The second game will see Pedro Neto and Chelsea (13-10-13) welcoming Tottenham Hotspur 9-11-16) to Stamford Bridge (GrassMaster by Tarkett Sports) for a London derby and the Blues last Home game and a date more important to Spurs fighting relegation with West Ham United.
Premier League traders at Polymarket are behind Phil Foden and desperate Manchester City (58%) in this must-win fixture over AFC Bournemouth (23%) with a Draw trading at 22%. The Cherries have had a surprisingly tasty season and are fighting for either a UCL or UEL berth.
Polymarket EPL bettors are also buying Chelsea FC (47%) over Tottenham Hotspur (28%) with a Draw trading at 27%. The Over 2.5 goals Total (‘Yes’) is 45¢ with the Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) at 61¢. Spurs need the win in the relegation battle while the Blues are scoring goals like turtles.
➤Trading Thoughts: Looking at the last 5 H2H MCFC-AFC Bournemouth series meetings we see that the Citizens are 4-0-1, (10 GF-5 GA) winning the last 3 straight, all in 2025 and pitting the Cherries 8-3. The last four has seen the BTTS (‘Yes’) win with at least 3 goals scored in all 4 games.
The last 5 games in the CFC-TOTT series has seen Chelsea go a perfect 5-0-0 (12 GF-4 GA) with Chelsea notching 3 Clean Sheets and going to 2-0-0 in royal blue West London and not allowing a goal (3 GF-0 GA) in EPL play (2023-2025). None. ➤Trading Picks: MCFC 58¢, CFC-Spurs Over 2.5, No, 45¢
US Open Cup Semifinals Kick Off on Tuesday
The 2026 US Open Cup tournament is down to its last four clubs with four Major League Soccer (MLS) teams meeting to determine a champion. On Tuesday, we will see a Semi doubleheader with the Columbus Crew hosting NYCFC and the Colorado Rapids hosting the San José Earthquakes.
The first US Open Cup Semi will see New York City FC kicking shins with the Columbus Crew at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field (Grass) in Columbus, Ohio on Tuesday (CBSSN, Paramount+, 7:30 ET/6:30 CT/4:30 PT). Do they use Scotts Miracle-Gro on ScottsMiracle-Gro Field? Is water wet, Bubba?
The second US Open Cup Semi of the evening sees the Colorado Rapids welcoming the San José Earthquakes to Dick’s Sporting Goods Park (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Commerce City, Colorado (Paramount+, 10 EDT/9 CDT/7 PDT).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Crew have already lost twice this year to NYCFC in MLS play, 3-2 and 3-0 at Yankee Stadium and Columbus has had a more disappointing start to the 2026 MLS Regular Season than has NYCFC, although both have failed to impress and sat mid-table at this writing.
NYCFC will be playing five matches in a span of 10 days (May 13-May 23), so Talles Magno (3 goals) and the Pigeons may be more tired than Hugo Picard (4 goals) and Columbus. ➤Trading Pick: Crew-NYCF Under 2.5
UEFA Europa League Final on Wednesday May 20
The 2026 UEFA Europa League Final will see the German Bundesliga’s SC Freiburg facing the English Premier League’s Aston Villa for the silverware at Beşiktaş Stadium (Hybrid Grass) in Istanbul, Turkey on Wednesday, May 20 (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
Whoever wins will receive an automatic berth into the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League tournament, and that means something considering the prestige and financial windfall with SC Freiburg only being able to qualify with a win here and Villa fighting for a 4th- or 5th-place finish.
Polymarket Europa League Final Winner traders like Aston Villa (54%) over SC Freiburg (26%) with a Draw at 26% for this game at Beşiktaş Stadium (aka Vodafone Park or Tüpraş Stadyumu for sponsorship reasons). Villa is 74% with Freiburg 27% in the UEFA Europa League: Winner market.
The EPL can win its second straight UELeague title here if Villa can top the Breisgau-Brasilianer (Breisgau Brazilians) in Istanbul where you don’t want to get caught trying to smuggle hash taped to your body out like the character American Billy Hayes did in the 1972 movie Midnight Express.
➤Trading Thoughts: This figures to be a great and close game—this is the first time the two clubs have ever met—with two solid GKs in Villa’s Emiliano Martínez and Freiburg’s Noah Atubolu with Vincenzo Grifo, Yuito Suzuki, and the motivated German side needing the win to make the UCL. ➤Trading Pick: Under 2.5 56¢
Blue Jays Meet Yanks in the Bronx Wednesday Night
There is a great AL East matchup on the MLB schedule on Wednesday with the AL champions Toronto heading to The House That Ruth Built at Yankee Stadium (Grass) in New York City to face the division-leading Yankees (MLB.TV, Prime Video, Sportsnet One, FuboTV, 7:05 EDT/4:05 PDT).
The scheduled starting pitchers for this game were sending 22-year-old RHP Trey Yesavage (1-1, 0.68 ERA) for the Blue Jays and 25-year-old RHP Cam Schlittler (5-1, 1.35 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) for the Bronx Bombers in a battle between two of the best young pitchers in the Junior Circuit.
In the American League East winner market at DraftKings Predictions, Aaron Judge and the Yankees were trading at -203 (Yes, No +170) with the Blue Jays at +1567 (No -2400). The hottest team in MLB lately, the Tampa Bay Rays, were the AL East’s new second fave at +270 (No -335).
➤Trading Thoughts: NY has been dominant at Home (14-6) while Toronto has sucked on the Road (8-14). Looking at the 2025 MLB H2H results, we see the Jays were 8-5 vs the Yankees including a 3-1 ALDS mark (34 RF-22 RA) where Toronto sent NY packing after a disappointing season.
This will be the first time these two meet this year, and it you look at the Finals of those four ALDS games, you will see a robust average of 14.8 RPG, but it’s important to note the last 2025 Regular Season series (Sept 5-7) in the Bronx saw lower-scoring games (TOR 7-1, NYY 3-1, NYY 4-3).
There have been a bunch of teams playing some really good baseball in April and May—the Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Padres, Rays, Brewers, and the Cardinals to a degree—including Ben Rice (.415 OBP) and the Yankees who are #3 in Sluggings Percentage and #5 in Runs. ➤Trading Pick: Yankees
NHL Western Conference Finals Start Wednesday
The puck drops on the NHL Western Conference Finals with the Vegas Golden Knights facing the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver in Game 1 of this best-of-7 series on Wednesday night (ESPN, 8 EDT/7 CDT/5 PDT). The Edmonton Oilers won the West the last two seasons.
In the Series Winner: Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche market, NHL traders at Kalshi were all over Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche (71%) against Mark Stone and the Vegas Golden Knights (31%) in extremely heavy volume on May 15 (almost $4 million).
The Avalanche (56-16-11) had the NHL’s best record for the duration of the year and swept the Kings (13 GF-5 GA) before bouncing the Wild in a high scoring 5-game series (24 GF-18 GA). VGK (39-26-17) ousted the Mammoth (23 GF-18 GA) and the Ducks (21 GF-13 GA), both in 6 games.
Trading on Game 1 and Game 2 has been underway for some time with Cale Makar and hosts Colorado (64%) getting the money over Vegas (36%) in Game 1 as well as in Game 2 where bettors are also behind Colorado in Game 2 at Ball Arena on Friday night (56%-44%).
➤Trading Thoughts: This will be great TV. A late season coaching change re-energized Jack Eichel and VGK who won the last meeting on the Regular Season series (3-2) after losing the first two meetings to the Avalanche (4-2, 6-5). There are a couple of good trading angles for this series.
First, the side, and the dominant and rested Avalanche (26-9-6 at Home) have played too well this season to lose to VGK who may steal a game in the Rocky Mountains but won’t be able to outscore the Avs making Game 1 and series ‘Yes’ contracts a must before the masses smash the number up.
Second, the Totals. There will be goals scored in this series and Totals of 6½ will be likely and Colorado can score 4-6 times a game, so you do the math. Both teams’ Goalies are decent but hardly elite. ➤Trading Picks: Avalanche Series 71¢, Avalanche Game 1 61¢, Over 5.5 Game 1 48¢
Lens vs Nice in Grand Coupe de France Final Friday
The 2025-26 Coupe de France Final is set, two clubs with French Ligue 1 clubs Lens and Nice shooting to thrill at historic Stade de France (Hybrid Grass by SIS Pitches) in Paris on Friday (TV—FS2, Fox Soccer Plus, STREAMING—Fubo, FOX Sports App, 3 EDT/2 CDT/1 MDT/12 PDT).
Nice is fighting relegation from Ligue 1 while Les Sang et Or (The Blood and Gold) are in 2nd-place and will play in the lucrative 2025-26 UEFA Champions League tourney. This is a good match to trade on and to back the favorite. We will explain why in like 56 words and numbers from now.
At Polymarket, traders are buying Racing Club de Lens (57%) in the 2026 French Cup Final with OGC Nice at 19% and a Draw at 24%. The Total 2.5 sees the Over at 56¢ (Under 48¢) with the Both Teams To Score prop (‘Yes’) currently trading at 74¢ (No 48¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: You don’t need to be a rocket scientist handicapping sports and applying what you find to your prediction market trades, and for me, this Lens-Nice dance may prove such. Lens may be having its best season ever. Nice will be talking about Ligue 1 in Ligue 2 next season.
Lens (21-4-7, 67 PTS) is in 2nd place with a great Goal Differential (62 GF-33 GA) while Nice (7-10-16, 37 PTS) is in 16th place with a -23 GD (37 GF-60 GA), allowing the second-most goals in the league behind 18th-place and also soon to be relegated Metz (along with 17th-place Nantes).
Senegalese sensation F Abdallah Sima (5 goals) has been Lens’ most productive player on the attack in the Coupe de France, but it has been Odsonne Édouard (12 goals), Florian Thauvin (10 goals), and Wesley Saïd (10 goals) have been Les Sang et Or top goal producers in league play.
Lens was 1-1-0 (W-D-L) vs Nice this season in Ligue 1, tying 1-1 May 2 and winning 2-0 at Home.
The best idea? Have some ‘Yes’ contracts on Lens in the Coupe de France Winner at 75¢ to avoid losing it if it goes to ET/PKs, some Lens at 58¢ for the match, and a little at 1.5 at 34¢ for pizza money. ➤Trading Picks: Lens Coupe de France Winner 75¢, Lens Final Winner, 62¢, Lens -1.5 40¢
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll highlight the 2026 Indianapolis 500, DraftKings set to launch Railbird live, Bulgaria shocking the world and traders by winning EuroVision 2026, Scottish Cup, German Cup, and the Women’s UEFA Champions League finals previews, and a NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 preview and picks Thanks for reading and subscribing to this bi-weekly newsletter for prediction market traders, sports bettors, and news junkies alike.