FedEx Cup Playoffs Starting Thursday in Memphis
Grab your balls, bag, and sticks for the first leg of the 2026 PGA FedEx Cup Playoffs coming on Thursday with the FedEx St Jude Championship from TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee (TV—ESPN, ESPN+, CBS, Paramount+, Golf Channel, PGA Tour Live Betcast; Radio—SiriusXM).
After the Wyndham Championship, the top 70 golfers will be competing here to try to make the cut of 50 and move on to the second leg, the BMW Championship, next weekend at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis (August 20-23).
After that tournament in the Show Me State, it’s off to the third and final leg for the final 30 golfers who make the most important cut, the TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, from Thursday, August 27 through Sunday, August 30. The purse is $40 million.
Englishman Tommy Fleetwood won the 2025 FedEx Cup and the cool $10,000,000 winner’s share, beating Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley by 3 strokes at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta as he won his first-ever victory on the PGA Tour on August 25, 2025.
So can Fleetwood repeat? No. No one ever does, and it’s hard to see world #1 Scottie Scheffler or back-to-back Masters winner Rory McIlroy winning the playoffs. That means we are in store for some really good Gold over the next month, with a lot of money to be traded on prediction markets.
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PGA Picks: FedEx St Jude Championship
The 2026 FedEx St Jude Championship is the opening leg of the PGA FedEx Cup Playoffs, and trying to isolate one winner for this pressure-packed tournament is like an exercise in futility. Looking at some of the head-to-head matchups or Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 markets is advised.
At Kalshi, American star Scottie Scheffler is the trader’s favorite (30%), followed by Irishman Rory McIlroy (14%), Cameron Young (7%), Chris Gotterup (5%), Sam Burns (5%), Hideki Matsuyama (5%), last year’s winner Tommy Fleetwood (4%), Xander Schauffele (4%), and Ludvig Åberg (4%).
Following in the next pack were Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, and Si Woo Kim at 3%, Akshay Bhatia, Gary Woodland, Sepp Straka, Russell Henley, and Jacob Bridgeman at %, and Ryan Gerard, JJ Spaun, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Nicolai Højgaard, and Robert MacIntyre all at 1%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Former Auburn University star Jackson Koivu was the “bubble boy” at #70 in the World Golf Rankings, and the 3M Open winner and amateur made the cut, but just barely after hanging on in the final round of the Wyndham Championship, won by Michael Brennan.
There are, like, five here worth contemplation, but making the cut of 50 is more important than winning the tournament here in Memphis. Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Chris Gotterup, Matt Fitzpatrick and amateur Jackson Koivu should he make the cut of 70 heading in.
⛳2026 FedEx St Jude Championship Winner ‘Yes’ Picks: Cameron Young 8¢, Sam Burns, 7¢
Prediction Market Prices: What You Really Pay
A decent prediction market account to follow on Twitter is PredictionMarkets.us (@USPredict), and the account posted a salient Tweet on July 29 reminding traders that the prices you see on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are not the actual amount of money it actually costs.
When you buy concert tickets, there are also additional fees, such as service and processing fees, facility charges, and delivery fees. When you order a pizza, you pay for extra toppings and dipping sauces, and have state (and possibly local) taxes, delivery charges, and of course, a tip.
Nothing costs what it seems. I’d detail the monthly fees on the rent, cable, and electricity bills, but I do not have a psychiatrist; my new cat Ralphie will not listen to complaints about fees, and if I bang my head on the wall to forget the paragraph will never end.
Here is the revealing tweet:
“When you buy YES on a 50¢ market, you're buying at the ask—which might be 52¢. When you sell, you get the bid—which might be 48¢. That 4¢ spread is your round-trip cost before the market moves at all.”
In sports betting, bettors need to win at a 52.38% rate to break even because of the 10% vigorish (juice) that sportsbooks apply. In prediction markets, your prediction must be right by 8% according to the tweet to break even.
This is why sea turtles lay 80 to 120 eggs in a nest—because the math says that most of the eggs/babies won’t survive. Math can be a friend or an enemy to a gambler or prediction market trader. Knowing the math and all the fees involved before trading is imperative.
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Big Brother 28 Markets, Season Show Update
The 28th season of the reality TV show Big Brother US is now getting down and dirty, with three of the show’s Houseguests (Ashley Trail, Rome Seymour, Lyric Medeiros ) having already been evicted from the House on a parking lot in Los Angeles after the Thursday, July 9 premiere on CBS.
That means 15 of the 18 Houseguests are still in the running for the $750,000 grand prize, and at both Kalshi and Polymarket, you can trade on who will win this long-running show, and the volume is impressive ($2.251,648, August 4) for a show that will crown a winner on October 1.
At Kalshi, you can also bet on 2nd Place and weekly eliminations. Traders like Survivor winner Dee Valladares (22%) to be the Big Brother Season 28 · Winner, followed by another Survivor veteran, Rick Devens (16%¢). The two just played on the recently ended and controversial Survivor 50.
Following in trading order were Taylor Brown (9%), Kamu Kirk (9%), Drew Campbell (8%), Yash Patel (8%), Barrett Pfeiffer (7%), Mallory Aurichio (7%), Angela_Murray (5%), LaTrice Verrett (4%), Melody Morris (4%), Chuk Anyanwu (2%), and Haley Togmartin (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The deepest bond is between Survivor’s Dee and Rick, with Angela a third wheel they’re using as a vote and pretending to care what she thinks. They don’t. Haley, Chuk, and Kamu (The Red Corner) have a strong alliance, but aren’t aware how tight Dee and Rick are.
The smart money is on these two, and Rick has an advantage he can use somewhere down the line, but only Dee knows of this power. Lyric, Mallory, and Melody—who I call The Power Puff Girls—have 3 as well, but have no idea about the Dee-Rick bond and trust. Their 3 soon may be 2.
Women and minorities have done very well in recent seasons of Big Brother US. Dee is a woman and a Hispanic and one hell of a player, as those of us watching the Live Feeds on Pluto can see.
A minority has won 5 of the last 6 BBUS. A woman has won four of the last 5 seasons, and women can make it 4 straight for the first time if Dee, Angela, Lyric, Mallory, Melody, Haley, La Trice, or Taylor win. If one of the latter two wins, it will be 5 African American winners in the last 7 seasons,
🕰️Big Brother 28 Winner Picks: Dee Valladares, Yes 22¢, LaTrice Verrett Yes 4¢
🕰️Big Brother 28 Second Place Winner: Rick Devens, Yes 12¢
Q2 Earnings Calendar Slows Down This Week
After several weeks of heavy Q2 earnings reports, we find a lighter flow in this week’s Earnings Calendar (August 10-13). Q2 ended on June 30, and the peak reporting portion just passed with some stragglers and other reporting in mid- to late August.
Reporting on Monday, August 10, were Getty Images (GETY), AECOM (ACM), Rocket Labs (RKLB), and Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), while on Tuesday, August 11, Etoro Group (ETOR) and Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) will both be reporting Q2 earnings before the opening bell.
After the market closes on Tuesday, Pixelworks (PXLW) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) will report. On Wednesday, August 12, we’ll hear from Marex Group (MRX) before the opening bell, with Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) reporting after the closing bell on Nasdaq.
On Thursday, August 13, Newsmax (NMAX) will be the only company reporting, and the last Q2 report for the week, with Friday, August 14 clear, as well as the remaining two weeks in August, making Newsmax one of the last companies to report for the quarter.
Also reporting after the closing bell on Wednesday is StubHub Holdings (STUB), with the American ticket resale company being given just a 38% chance of beating estimates from the street according to traders at Polymarket on August 4.
StubHub Holdings will give its 2026 Q2 Earnings Call after the Nasdaq closes on Wednesday, August 12 (5 ET/4 CT/3 MT/2 PT). You can listen to and watch the StubHub Holdings second quarter earnings report webcast live at the StubHub Investor Relations Website.
Emmys: Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series
The 2026 Emmy Awards are now a month away, so we will start wrapping up our winner previews with some of the minor categories, like ‘Emmys 2026: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie,’ where Oscar Issac from Netflix’s Beef looks like the winner (60%).
The following were Matthew Rhys from The Beast in Me (31%), Riz Ahmed from Bait (8%), Jason Bateman from Black Rabbit (6%), and Charlie Hunnam from Monster: The Ed Gein Story (4%) on August 9 in moderate yet healthy trading volume ($48,631) at Polymarket.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Emmy betting public seems to be sharp on this one, and expects the price (‘Yes’) to only rise on Oscar Isaac for his role as Joshua Martín in Beef. Rhys led by 2% (47%-45%) on July 10, but as you see in the chart below, it’s been a constant stream of Issac money since.
🗽Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie Pick: Oscar Isaac, Yes, 60¢
NCAAF: 2026 Sun Belt Conference Champions
We have delved into the Power Four conference Futures markets; now it’s time to look at the Group of Six (G6) conferences in the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), starting with Sun Belt Conference (here) and Conference USA (below).
In the ‘2026 Sun Belt Conference champion’ market, James Madison (29¢) was the early traders’ favorite with Old Dominion (15¢), Marshall (11¢), Louisiana (10¢), Louisiana Tech (9¢), Troy (9¢), Arkansas State (8¢), Appalachian State (5¢), and Coastal Carolina (4¢) all following.
The perceived and predicted market underdogs in the Sun Belt Conference on August 3 were Georgia Southern (3¢), South Alabama (3¢), Southern Miss (2¢), Georgia State (1¢), and Louisiana Monroe (1¢).
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, James Madison won the conference, going a perfect 8-0 in league play and then disposing of Troy in the 2025 Sun Belt Championship Game, 31-14. Despite the Dukes losing so much talent, expect JMU to run the table again under new HC Billy Napier.
🏈2026 Sun Belt Conference Winner Pick: James Madison, Yes, Bid 28¢, Ask 30¢ (August 5)
NCAAF: 2026 Conference USA Champions
At Robinhood Predictions in the 2026 Conference USA Champion market, RB Kanye Udoh and Liberty (24¢) are the trader’s favorite, followed by Western Kentucky (23¢), Jacksonville State (15¢), Delaware (10¢), Kennesaw State (10¢), and Florida International (9¢).
The C-USA underdogs are Middle Tennessee State (2¢), Missouri State (2¢), Sam Houston State (1¢), and New Mexico State (1¢). Conference play in C-USA will start on Saturday, September 26.
➤Trading Thoughts: Last year, the Owls of Kennesaw State defeated the Gamecocks of Jacksonville State in the 2025 Conference USA Championship game, 19–15. This is a good market to watch for the first week, as there are maybe six here who could win if everything goes right.
The Hilltoppers have good RBs in Ajay Allen and Kalib Hicks, and a great WR in K.D. Hutchinson, so WKU may be worth a look, but this conference is always a toss-up with a different school winning the last four seasons. WKU hasn’t won since 2016, so maybe this is its year?
🏈2026 Sun Belt Conference Champion Pick: Western Kentucky, Yes 23¢
Brewers Drink with the Dodgers in LA on Thursday
The NL Central-leading Brewers (74-44, 33-22 Road) head to Los Angeles to face Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers (70-48, 33-23 Home) for Game 1 of a 3-game series from Dodger Stadium (Santa Ana Bermudagrass) on Thursday (MLB.tv, Fubo, Brewers.tv, 10:10 EDT/4:10 PDT).
The scheduled starting pitchers for this series opener see Brewers LHP Robert Gasser (3-4, 4.48 ERA) dueling Dodgers RHP Rōki Sasaki (5-5, 4.54 ERA). Los Angeles heads in here 2-1 vs Milwaukee this season (MIL 5 LAD 1, LAD 11 MIL 3, LAD 5 MIL 1) at American Family Field in May.
At the popular prediction market Kalshi in the National League Champion, the Dodgers were being given a 50% chance of winning the Senior Circuit again, with the BrewCrew sitting at 16%, despite adding three new pitchers of their own (Antonio Senzatela, Dustin May, JoJo Romero).
➤Trading Thoughts: These two have been trading off the best record in MLB, and with Los Doyers adding Tarik Skubal to an already loaded pitching staff, a Brewers-Dodgers NLCS may be the real World Series unless the Braves, Phillies, or maybe the Padres can throw a wrench in the gears.
Sasaki has always been tabbed as a promising prospect. Still, the young Japanese northpaw always seems to get hit hard in the first 3-4 innings, frustrating the 24-year-old as well as his manager Dave Roberts, who refuses to give up on him, although Sasaki is also used in some relief roles.
But strong recent outings vs the Yankees, Mets, and Mariners show that skipper Roberts is very wise not to give up yet on Sasaki—the third-best Japanese pitcher on the Dodgers roster behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the currently (arm) shelved legend, Shohei Ohtani. The depth is scary.
⚾MLB Wednesday Night MLB Pick: Brewers-Dodgers Under 8
2026 NWSL Champions Futures at Kalshi
The 2026 National Women's Soccer League (NWSL) has been playing its 2026 NWSL Regular Season since March 13, and it ends on November 1 with the NWSL Playoffs kicking off on November 6, so now is as good a time as any to look at the 2026 NWSL champions market.
At Kalshi, Challenge Cup winners Gotham FC (25%)are who the masses are betting on to win the 2026 NWSL championship, followed by the Washington Spirit (22%), Kansas City Current (16%), San Diego Wave FC (14%), North Carolina Courage (10%), and Utah Royals FC (7%)
Angel City FC (5%), Portland Thorns (5%), the expansion Denver Summit FC (2%), and Bay FC (1%) were the NWSL underdogs on August 9. Besides Denver, the NWSL also saw Boston Legacy FC expand, and Atlanta and Columbus, Ohio will be joining the league in 2028.
Looking at the NWSL Standings in this 14th season of the women’s pro soccer league, we find Gotham FC (11-4-3, 37 PTS), the Washington Spirit (11-3-4, 36 PTS), and the Utah Royals (10-3-5, 33 PTS) with the best records while Chicago Stars FC (4-0-13, 23 PTS have been the worst.
➤Trading Thoughts: Behind German GK Ann-Katrin Berger, Gotham FC has registered 7 Clean Sheets, and the Bats have allowed the fewest goals in the league (12), but just one less than the Spirit (13). KC has the most goals (26), thanks to Cloé Lacasse (6) and Mina Tanaka (5).
Gotham FC defeated the Washington Spirit, 1-0, last year in the 2025 NWSL Championship Game, and we may see these two in the title tilt again, but don’t sleep on KC. In the end, the thought here is to buy FC Gotham ‘Yes.’ This is a team playing well at the right time and with the best keeper.
Esther González (6 goals), Rose Lavelle (4 goals), Jaedyn Shaw (4 goals), and New York won its last two matches in 1-0 Road shutouts (HOU, BAY), and have beaten Washington, Kansas City, and Utah in their last meetings. The Big Apple won the NBA Championship; another NWSL may follow.
⚽2026 NWSL Champion Pick: FC Gotham, Yes 29¢
2030 FIFA World Cup Winner Early Look
After expanding to 48 teams for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the governing body is now considering adding 16 more and making it a 64-nation field for the 2030 FIFA World Cup set to be held in Spain, Portugal, and Morocco and kicking off on June 8, 2030, and running through July 21, 2030.
The recently concluded World Cup set all sorts of viewing records, and here in the prediction market space, both Kalshi and Polymarket raked in record numbers, putting world football and this quadrennial tournament into context with American Football, which starts in no time.
Teen sensation Lamine Yamal and Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and traders at Kalshi like France (12.8%) to emerge victorious in 2026 followed closely by UEFA comrades Spain (12.2%), England (7.2%), Brazil (6.4%), Argentina (6.3%), Portugal (5.5%), Germany (5.1%), and Italy (2.1%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Only nations from Europe (UEFA) and South America (CONMEBOL) have won the previous 23 World Cups, with Europe winning 13 after Spain triumphs over Lionel Messi and defending champions Argentina in July, with South America sitting on 10 of the 23.
This means putting any money (or faith) on nations from the CONCACAF, CAF, AFC, and OFC federations is an exercise in financial responsibility, and tying it up for four years seems like absolute madness as we live out the second half of 2026.
France will likely again have the best roster, with players like Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, and Bradley Barcola still on it. In contrast, Spain will have the best GK defense and is expected to win, especially with the country’s women also so elite and world champions.
⚽2030 FIFA World Cup Winner Pick: Spain, Yes 13.7¢
PSG-Aston Villa in UEFA Super Cup on Wednesday
The 2026 UEFA Super Cup sees UEFA Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain facing UEFA Europa League holders Aston Villa at Red Bull Arena (Lawn) in a French Ligue 1-EPL showdown in Salzburg, Austria, on Wednesday, August 12 (Paramount+, 3 EDT/2 CDT/12 PDT).
Polymarket traders like PSG (55%) over Aston Villa (20%) with a Draw at 25%. The two met in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League Quarters, with PSG advancing after a 3-1 win in Leg 1 in Paris, with Villa winning 3-2 in Leg 2 at Villa Park in Birmingham, but losing the series on aggregate, 5-4.
Last year in the 50th edition of the Super Cup, Ousmane Dembélé and PSG won 4–3 on penalties after a 2–2 draw in regulation and AET at the Stadio Friuli in Udine, Italy. This will be the first UEFA Super Cup ever played in Austria. Omar Artan (Somalia) will serve as the match referee.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Parisiens scored 173 goals last year, and even with Emiliano Martinez possibly in net for Villa—who won the UEFA Super Cup in 1982—and the game is meaningless in a strange sort of way, expect whoever is in the starting lineup for PSG to generate 2 or 3 goals here.
Looking at the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) ‘Yes’ seems logical, and PSG (3-1-1 L5) should start another trophy-grab here against Aston Villa (4-1-0) in Austria. With Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Vitinha, Désiré Doué, and Bradley Barcola, expect Les Parisiens to roll again in 2026-27.
⚽2026 Super Cup Picks: PSG Advances, Yes 74¢, Both Teams To Score, Yes 54¢ (Kalshi)
➠”In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll look at the state of New York suing Kalshi, Underdog launches as a prediction market, another Emmy pick and previews of the NCAAF AAC and MWC conferences, UFC 330 on Saturday, and the 2026 FA Community Shield between Arsenal and Manchester City on Sunday.”