Sports betting industry giants DraftKings announced on Tuesday it was acquiring the prediction platform Railbird Exchange as it moves toward releasing a mobile DraftKings Predictions product in the coming months.
DraftKings sought out Railbird for its team as well as its proprietary technology. The company is licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer event contracts so customers can trade on numerous event outcomes over a variety of different markets.
The Boston, Massachusetts-based company has thrived with the advent of legalized sports gambling and interest in daily fantasy sports (DFS) across the US and wants a piece of the prediction market action.
In a statement to CNBC, DraftKings CEO Jason Robbins said “We are excited about the additional opportunity that prediction markets could represent for our business.”
“We believe that Railbird’s team and platform—combined with DraftKings’ scale, trusted brand, and proven expertise in mobile-first products—positions us to win in this incremental space.”
Prediction Markets Volume Hits an All-Time High
The perfect storm continues for prediction markets as weekly trading volume set another new high above $2 billion and topped the peak levels seen in the 2024 US presidential election period according to data from Dune Analytics.
Industry giants Polymarket and Kalshi have both seen massive increases in trading volume and user activity over the last months with the public showing higher interest in prediction markets and the popular NFL season kicking off in September.
With Polymarket set to re-enter the US market and beta testing its app here, the company has retaken its lead over Kalshi who saw a massive leap in August thanks to college and pro football coming back.
And with the sports equinox now—the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA are all playing—expect more records to be broken and once Polymarket gets its footing, the sky is the limit for prediction markets in the US and the competition for users may get more intense.
The notional volume by category reveals how important sports markets are to platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, with $414.7 million worth of volume there in sports last week as compared to politics markets which were on the upswing, but still only at $322.6 million in volume.
Prediction markets place in the mainstream is in the here and the now. Seeing Taylor Swift’s new album eclipse $14 million in trading volume on Kalshi earlier this month is proof. The total amount bet on Super Bowl XXV back in 1991 was $40.1 million for some historical context.
Will Louvre Crown Jewels Thieves Get Caught in 2025?
Thieves stole eight pieces of 19th-century jewels from two high-security display cases in the Apollo Gallery in the Louvre museum in Paris this week in a daring seven-minute raid which saw the robbers get away with objects valued at approximately $102 million.
The masked thieves dressed as yellow and orange safety vests to disguise themselves as workers and used a truck with an electric ladder to climb to a second-floor balcony on the Seine River side of the museum.
And forced open a window with and took eight of the nine items dating from the Napoleonic era in the two display cases including a tiara and a necklace worn by Queen Marie-Amélie and Queen Hortense using an angle grinder and a blowtorch to cut through the thick display glass.
Louvre Crown Jewels
The ninth item, a crown with 1,354 diamonds and 56 emeralds belonging to Empress Eugénie, was found outside the Louvre although it was damaged by the thieves. The perpetrators all escaped on scooters.
Traders at Kalshi in the Will Any Louvre Crown Jewel Thieves Face Charges This Year? Market are leaning to these guys being caught in the near future, with Before November trading at 16%, Before December at 38%, and Before 2026 at 51% early on Thursday, October 23.
The Louvre has since reopened and 100 investigators are making progress. The stolen truck used in the robbery was found as well as other key pieces of evidence. Experts feel that the thieves will try to break down the stolen jewels to make selling them easier. Stay tuned, Inspector Closeau.
Kalshi Climate Category Raining With Fun Trades
You can find all sorts of cool stuff to trade on in prediction markets like sports, politics, awards, news, culture, and even on weather and climate where Kalshi offers up a wonderful sheet of markets for traders who feel they may have an edge in that area or for just casual traders.
Two long-term markets and somewhat morbid markets are 8.0 Magnitude Earthquake in Japan Before 2030? (43%) and Will There Be an at Least 8.0 Magnitude Earthquake in California before 2028? (6%) and no one living in that country or state would want the “Yes” outcome.
You can also trade on (Will) This October Be the Hottest October Ever? (1%). That sweaty distinction goes to October of 2023 which averaged global temperatures 2.41°F (1.34°C) above the 20th-century average with last year’s 92024) October the second-hottest ever globally.
If nailing down a particular temperature for a specific day is your thing, Kalshi has numerous daily temperature markets for major cities in the United States like Chicago, Philadelphia, Austin, Denver, and Los Angeles, among many others.
Another unique trading niche is volcanoes. If this is for you, lava breath, When Will Mt. Etna Next Erupt?, When Will Mount Spurr Erupt?, and Will a Supervolcano Erupt Before 2050? are all up but the latter may take some decades to collect and dead men don’t collect volcano “Yes” trades.
So you went to school to learn a craft and now you are trading on whether or not a volcano will erupt somewhere you have never been or ever will be. If you want to bet on earthquakes, temperatures, volcanoes, or other climate-related future outcomes, Kalshi has you covered.
Traders: Costco Will Never Raise Hot Dog Combo Price
For over 41 years, the price of a Costco hot dog combo—a quarter-pound all-beef hot dog and a 20-ounce soda—has remained steady at $1.50, and with its iconic status, it’s hard to see Costco messing with the formula when it would be so much easier to make profits in other areas.
Even though the hot dogs are a loss, the low price brings customers into Costco and the deal is as much a part of the mainstream in the US as the 99¢ shrimp cocktail you used to find in Las Vegas casinos. Now only one casino restaurant (DuPar’s) has 99¢ shrimp cocktail but only from 3-5 am.
You know when you have your own Wikipedia page you’re big news.
Costco
With rising costs and inflation, some think now would finally be the time for Costco to raise the loss leader hot dog combo deal price but Kalshi traders in the Costco Raises Hot Dog Combo Price? market pretty much never sees Costco making a price change to the food court item.
Costco raising the hot dog combo price by 2026 is trading at a 1% chance (-5% in 2 days), before 2027 at 15%, and before 2028 at 25%. So it seems the chances of a major meteor striking earth are better than Costco ever budging off that $1.50 price.
Traders Not Seeing a New Album From Rihanna This Year
The New Rihanna Album This Year? market at Kalshi has not been bullish on Rihanna releasing her ninth studio album this calendar year, despite the reality the 37-year-old Barbadian singer confirmed in February she was working on it.
The chances of it have been steadily going down in the eyes of traders at Kalshi, who have driven the chances of a new Rihanna release from 52.9% in January all the way to its current level of 17% (Yes 17¢, No 89¢).
Rihanna
Rihanna’s last album, Anti, came out nine years ago and many are speculating a 2026 release to coincide with the 10th anniversary of that last album which gave us the hits “Work,” "Kiss It Better,” “Needed Me,” and “Love On The Brain.”
Of the eventual upcoming album, Rihanna has said she has “cracked the code” and that she wanted it to feel “genre-less” and she “cannot put up with anything mediocre.”
Sometime in early 2026 makes a lot more sense and the market is somewhat clogged with new releases as it is right now with Taylor Swift (The Life of a Showgirl) and Doja Cat (Vie) both releasing new albums.
Rihanna
NFL MVP Winner Market a Good Place to Dig For Gold?
Awards markets can be fun and profitable in prediction markets and the more elite platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi do a nice job of offering trades in all sorts of future events that give out awards, including the Nobel Peace Prize, the Oscars, the NBA MVP and the NFL MVP winner.
Looking at Kalshi’s NFL MVP winner market, we see the two usual suspects getting all the love from “yes” traders with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes at a 39% chance to win the award (Yes 39¢, No 62¢) followed by Bills QB Josh Allen at 18% (Yes 18¢, No 83¢).
After these two AFC legends, the market is wide open and that may be where the gold lies with the 2025-26 NFL Regular Season coming up on the halfway point. Mahomes (1,800 pass yards, 14 TD, 2 INT) has played very well of late, but Colts QB Daniel Jones has similar stats (1,790/10/3).
But the Indianapolis signal caller is at just 5% (Yes 5¢, No 96¢), and what looks like a great price to buy “Yes” low. Mahomes has already won two MVP awards (2018, 2022) while Allen won his first last season (2024). The NFL MVP has been a QB every season since 2012.
Good Place to Dig Gold?
The rest of the QBs traders are backing include NE’s Drake Maye (18%), Dallas’s Dak Prescott (9%), TB’s Baker Mayfield (8%), LA’s Matthew Stafford (7%), Detroit’s Jared Goff (5%), GB’s Jordan Love (4%), Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (4%), and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts (3%).
The only non-QB getting any attention is Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (4%), but if Indianapolis (6-1) keeps winning and makes some noise in the playoffs and reached the AFC Championship Game, maybe a longshot like Taylor or teammate Jones has a chance but they may split some votes.
The winner of the AP NFL Most Valuable Player is given to the NFL player who receives the most points after a vote of a nationwide panel of 50 media members who vote on their top five players employing a weighted point system (10-5-3-2-1).
On the Thursday before the Super Bowl (February 5, 2026), the NFL Honors ceremony is held and the AP NFL MVP winner is announced. The ceremony was held at the Saenger Theatre in New Orleans last year and aired on FOX and the NFL Network and streamed on Fox Sports and NFL+.
Messi, Inter Miami Host Nashville in MLS Playoffs Friday
The 2025 MLS Regular Season is over, so that means it’s time for the 2025 MLS Playoffs and Round One with four best-of-3 series in the Eastern and Western conferences. The Philadelphia Union (Eastern Conference) and San Diego FC (Western Conference) are the two No. 1 seeds.
On Friday night, living legend Lionel Messi and the Eastern Conference No. 3 seed Inter Miami CF will welcome the No. 6 seed Nashville SC to Chase Stadium (Grass) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida (FS1, Fox Deportes, Apple TV+, 8 EDT/5 PDT).
MLS
Soccer traders at Polymarket are backing Inter Miami to win this Game 1 match at 63¢ with Nashville at 21¢ and a Draw at 22¢.
The winner of this series will play the winner of the all-Ohio FC Cincinnati-Columbus Crew Round One series in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
World Series Beginning on Friday, Dodgers Big Favorites
The 2025 World Series starts this weekend as Shohei Ohtani and the defending Major League Baseball (MLB) champions and NL pennant-winning Los Angeles Dodgers heading to Toronto to face the AL-winning Blue Jays in a best-of-7 series to determine this year’s titlists.
This will be the Dodgers 23rd time playing in the Fall Classic, after their win over the New York Yankees last year. Toronto will hold the homefield advantage in the series (2-3-2).
LA (93-69) was the No. 3 seed in the NL Playoffs and beat the Reds in the Wild Card round, the Phillies in the NLDS, before sweeping the Brewers in the NLCS. Toronto (94-68) was the No. 1 seed in the AL and ousted the Yankees in the ALDS before beating the Mariners in the ALCS.
In that ALCS Game 7 in Toronto on Monday, the Blue Jays George Springer hit a 3-run HR in the bottom of the 7th inning to give Toronto a 4-3 lead in probably the most electric moment in MLB this season, helping his team punch their ticket to this Fall Classic.
World Series
In the World Series Champion 2025 market at Polymarket, traders are strongly behind the NL West champion Dodgers (70%) vs Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the AL East champion Blue Jays (31%). Sportsbooks odds have LA as -215 favorites to win the World Series with Toronto at +180.
Kalshi has markets open for Games 1-4 with Blake Snell and the visiting Dodgers given a 58% chance to beat the Jays (42%) in Game 1 (Friday, 8 ET) at Rogers Place (AstroTurf 3D Xtreme with Dirt Infield) in Toronto with LA trading at 60% to beat Toronto (40%) in Game 2 (Saturday, 8 ET).
The series heads to Dodger Stadium (Grass) in Los Angeles for Game 3 (Monday, 8 ET) and Game 4 (Tuesday, 8 ET) and maybe a Game 5 (Wednesday, 8 ET). Kalshi traders again lean toward LA (56%-44%) in Game 3 with Los Doyers getting the majority of contracts for Game 4 (54%-46%).
In the US, you can watch the World Series on FOX or stream it on FoxSports.com, the FOX Sports App, and FOX One. In Canada, Sportsnet will provide the first-ever English language Canadian produced World Series telecast while in Japan, you can catch the 2025 World Series on J Sports 3.
Huge NCAAF Week 9 AAC Collision Early on Saturday
The NCAAF Week 9 schedule might not have any can’t-miss games in the Power Four conferences, but the American Athletic Conference game between No. 19 South Florida (6-1) and No. 21 Memphis (5-1) could have CFP implications with the winner moving up in the weekly polls.
This one starts early on Saturday (12 EDT/9 PDT) from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (AstroTurf) in Memphis, Tennessee and it would be hard to see the loser here making their way into the CFP field of12 in December. AAC member Navy (6-0) was also undefeated after Week 8.
Week 8
In Week 8 action, QB Brendon Lewis and the Tigers suffered their first loss at UAB while star QB Byrum Brown—a Heisman Trophy candidate—and the Bulls stomped Florida Atlantic, 48-13.
Polymarket traders were giving host Memphis a 66% chance of winning here with visitors South Florida getting 36% in the popular prediction market’s NCAAF traders. The Point Spread market showed the Bulls -5.5 trading at 50¢ with Memphis at +5.5 54¢ with the Total at 62.5 (Under 57¢).
Last season, the Tigers defeated South Florida in Orlando, Florida, 21-3 as the Bulls were an anemic 1-for-13 on 3rd Down at home.
NASCAR Cup Series at Martinsville Races on Sunday
The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series is winding down with just two races to go, with the third race of the three-race Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs will wrap up with the Xfinity 500 from Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, Virginia on Sunday (NBC, 2 EDT/11 PDT).
In the second of the three races this past Sunday, Chase Briscoe won the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama in his No. 19 Toyota Camry XSE, becoming the second driver to qualify for the Championship 4 as he won his fifth race of the season.
Denny Hamlin secured his spot in the Bill France Cup two weekends ago in Las Vegas on Oct. 12 with his win at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Now the six remaining Playoff drivers will compete for the final two spots when Round 35 of the NASCAR season revs up Sunday.
NASCAR CAP
Christopher Bell (+37 points) and Kyle Larson (+36) have the upper leg on the final two NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 spots, with William Byron (-36), Joey Logano (-38), Ryan Blaney (-47), and Chase Elliott (-62) still in the hunt heading into Martinsville.
NASCAR traders at Polymarket in the Xfinity 500 Winner? are backing Ryan Blaney (23%), Denny Hamlin (15%), Christopher Bell (14%), Kyle Larson (14%), Chase Elliott (13%), Joey Logano (10%), William Byron (10%), Alex Bowman (6%), and Chase Briscoe (6%) to win the race at Martinsville.
The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race will be held from the Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, Arizona on Sunday, November 2 (NBC, 3 ET/12 PT).
AFC Champs KC Host Washington on Monday Night Football
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-3-0) welcome the Washington Commanders (3-4-0) to Arrowhead Stadium (Northbridge Bermudagrass) in Kansas City, Missouri for an NFL Week 8 interconference game on Monday Night Football (ABC, ESPN, 8:15 EDT/5:15 PDT).
In NFL Week 7 action on Sunday, the Chiefs shut out their AFC West rivals, the Raiders, at Home to keep their newfound momentum going while the Commanders lost to their rivals, the Cowboys as starting QB Jayden Daniels hurt his hamstring at Jerryworld and needed an MRI on Monday.
Traders in the NFL market at Kalshi are giving Kansas City a 86% (+10%) chance of winning this one with Washington trading at 14% (-10%). Travis Kelce and the Chiefs will head in on a two-game win streak while the Commanders have lost their last two.
Kansas City leads the all-time series 10-1-0 and Head Coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs have won all five meetings at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. With the KC defense playing great, the offense healthy, and the Commanders young starting QB injured, this game is a no-brainer.
CHIEFS
Kalshi and Polymarket are predictive markets that allow members to buy contacts on particular outcomes with each contract a single unit of ownership in the specific event’s outcome with each winning contract paying out $1 at market resolution. You can follow Kalshi and Polymarket on X (Twitter) at Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi