Underdog to Become a Major Player in the Market?
After entering the prediction market space last year through Crypto.com and acquiring Aristotle Exchange DCM in March 2026 to help make the pivot to offering PMs in-house, fantasy sports operator Underdog Sports has been gaining momentum in the sector.
With the partnership with Crypto(.)com and acquisition of the CFTC clearinghouse, Underdog could list sports event contracts in the United States with all of the regulatory infrastructure needed in place in order to list and clear contracts traded on the company’s Underdog.app.
Being a CFTC-regulated exchange and having that in-house ability to avoid a third party is huge in the industry. Being a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) gave Underdog just what it needed at the perfect time in this ever-evolving PM sector.
Besides Aristotle Exchange DCM, Underdog also acquired Aristotle Exchange, DCO, in the deal earlier this year. The two entities were formerly owned by PredictIt, a popular academic Prediction market trading platform for politicos. Underdog did not acquire PredictIt or Aristotle.
Now with the same ability as others to bypass state laws, Underdog has gained impressive traction and looks to become a major operator in the space like Kalshi and Polymarket. Earlier this year, we asked, ‘Who’s #3?’ here at The Prediction Report, and it could now very well be Underdog Sports.
And the numbers don’t lie. Now in 38 states—AL, AK, AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, ME, MD, MA, MN, MS, MO, NE, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WV, WI, WY—and the District of Columbia, Underdog was generating $120 million monthly volume.
In March, Underdog Sports laid off at least 6% of its staff of 500, with the fraud and payments teams reportedly suffering more than 67% of the cuts with Artificial Intelligence (AI) a possible reason why less Homo sapiens were needed by the Brooklyn, New York-based company.
Underdog Sports is the parent company of both Underdog Fantasy and Underdog Sportsbook.
Now with the Moby Dick of professional sports leagues for traders and recreational and professional sports gamblers, the NFL, quickly coming up on the not-too-distant ball-bouncing horizon, Underdog has been as busy as bees surrounding the queen bee and building a hive.
A recent Bank of America report indicated that Underdog Predict is planning on launching some of its own in-house markets on the app and website and that it all should be fully integrated for the start of the 2026 NFL Regular Season. So they have 3 months to make sure it all runs smoothly.
The new NFL season will kick off on Thursday, September 9 with a rematch of Super Bowl LIV with Drake Maye and the New England Patriots facing the NFL champion Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field (NBC, 8:20 EDT/7:20 CDT/5:20 PDT). Traders at Kalshi like the Seahawks (64% to 36%).
While Underdog is gearing up for the NFL season, one investment is drawing serious attention from traders who want to get ahead of the next massive market move.
From PayPal to Tesla to SpaceX, Elon Musk has a habit of seeing around corners.
Now he's doubling down on a technology Jeff Brown calls "W.T.E."
It's not self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, or rocket ships.
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And how to invest alongside him with as little as $2.
On to more big regulatory news — ProphetX just got the green light from the CFTC.
ProphetX Receives the Golden CFTC Approval
ProphetX announced last week that it had received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on its application to have the New York City-based company become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
The company, which has raised more than $20 million to date, is now poised to become the first “sports-native, direct-clearing prediction market.” ProphetX applied for the licenses with the CFTC in November 2025 and will serve up a proprietary parlay system for exchange users.
A press release from ProphetX said, "With these CFTC licenses, ProphetX is poised to become the first sports-native, direct-clearing prediction market to launch and operate in full compliance with the CFTC's DCM and DCO regulatory framework." So, is ProphetX gon’ give it to you? We will see.
ProphetX—in the peer-to-peer sports betting space since 2018—has used the sweepstakes model as it awaited the blessings of Michael Selig and the CFTC. Now with DCM and DCO capabilities, ProphetX will be competing with Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and FanDuel for market share.
Novig Also Receives Approval From the CFTC
ProphetX wasn’t the only company getting good news from Commissioner Selig and the CFTC, as the federal commission created in 1974 in charge of regulating derivatives markets, granted Novig (Ludlow Exchange LLC) the magical Designated Contract Market (DCM) status on June 16.
Novig filed for a license with the CFTC in January, and after seeing ProphetX—who applied in November—approved, it seems the pace of going through, reviewing and approving or denying applicants in the prediction market space has quickened. Why? The Moby Dick we call the NFL.
The prediction market space will be very crowded in the second half of 2026, with players like ProphetX, Novig, and Underdog Sports joining the list of operators. And as we covered last month in The Prediction Report, there are still a number of applications for DCMs pending at the CFTC.
Kalshi Raked in Big Bucks From the Pratt LA Race
The Los Angeles Mayoral Election has provided laughs for comedians, news for journalists, and a market for the growing throngs of PM people which saw way too much money traded on a former Reality TV star with no experience in politics but an ego similar to our talkative Orange President.
Spencer Pratt once spit his silliness grift both in and on The Hills (MTV), like Donald Trump the Elder, who fired freaks like Herschel Walker, Teresa Giudice, Dennis Rodman, and NeNe Leaks in his Celebrity Apprentice (NBC) reign (2008-2015) where he did much less harm to the US citizens.
At Kalshi, the large volume on the Los Angeles mayoral race was insane, and NPR correspondent Bobby Allyn reported on X (Twitter) that “Pratt’s candidacy single-handedly supercharged the market, since $60M out of $82M of total trades were related to Pratt. Kind of incredible.”
Indeed. We live in a stinking movie. And a strange one with no intermissions or Jordan’s Almonds.
Allyn also reported that Kalshi API data he accessed saw traders on Kalshi betting some $60 million total either for ($10 million on him advancing to a runoff and winning there) or against ($50 million he wouldn’t become mayor of the magical City of Night, City of Night) on Pratt losing.
He lost. Fair and square you strange humans who parrot everything The Rotund One says or does.
Besides the fun and satisfaction knowing a person with absolutely no credentials or experience to actually be the mayor of the nation’s second-largest city will now have no chance—California is statistically very Blue [D] anyway—is that Kalshi made $574,000 in fees from the crazy ass market.
Like the traditional brick-and-mortar and online sportsbooks where the usual 10% vigorish (juice) and betting grind helps make them profitable in the end, these fees charged by Kalshi, Polymarket, and all of the other prediction markets show they really know who butters their bread. We all do.
Spielberg’s Disclosure Day Won’t Win an Oscar
Disclosure Day, the much-anticipated new movie from director Steven Spielberg, premiered in movie theaters on June 12, and the Universal Pictures film expected to have great numbers at the box office, did just that, generating some $93.9 million in its opening weekend on the silver screen.
But from what many critics and those who have seen Disclosure Day, it probably won’t be winning many or any awards come next Spring. Looking at the revealing Polymarket Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations, we see the movie being given just a 36% chance of making the final cut.
Leading the pack in this market where more than one movie will pay, we see Digger (85%), Project Hail Mary (84%), Dune: Part Three (70%), The Odyssey (70%), Fjord (70%), The Social Reckoning (57%), All of a Sudden (56%), Wild Horse Nine (54%), and The Adventures of Cliff Booth (53%).
And movie titles trading at 51% or less on June 11 at Polymarket were Fatherland (51%), the aforementioned Spielberg latest Disclosure Day (36%)—starring Emily Blunt, Colman Domingo, and Josh O’Connor—The Drama (28%), Avengers: Doomsday (18%), and Michael (15%).
➤Academy Award Best Picture Nominations Winner Picks: Disclosure Day, ‘No’ 94¢
’Highest Grossing Movie in 2026?’ at Polymarket
So Spielberg’s Disclosure Day may not be all that and a bag of chips cinematically, but what are the movies fighting to be the top grossing film of this calendar year? At Polymarket, you can see a healthy mix of possibilities from movies already out and others yet to be released in theaters.
They still make theaters? Yes they do, weedhopper. And the movies loaded with modern sound and expensive visuals look sooooooo much better there on the big screen than on the postage-stamp size screen on your DumbPhones in your little 11-fingered hands. Hold on, I hear a road runner.
Anyway, Spiderman: Brand New Day (60%) leads the pack five months into 2026, and the Sony Pictures Releasing film will premiere (wide) in movie theaters in the US exactly six weeks from today on July 31, 2026.
Following Spiderman: Brand New Day in the market at the popular prediction exchange on June 17 were Toy Story 5 (21.6%), Avengers: Doomsday (12%), and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (3.6%).
Never Say Never in Sports: It Ain’t Over ‘til...
“It ain’t over ’til it’s over”, they always say, whoever ‘They’ is. And never has that old adage been as clear as that statement—which can apply to anything in Life if you really think about it—with some of the results we saw on Wednesday, June 10 in the Sports world revealing that weird 0:0 reality.
In sports betting and prediction markets, people are ever-increasingly becoming aware that a 99% chance or probability of something, anything, happening, is not 100%. Only 100% is 100%. Period. Ninety-nine percent is the new 50% is what I sing to you here, brother with these sacred words.
First, in MLB, we saw the Washington Nationals get out to a 10-1 lead after 7 innings in The City By The Bay, only to see Los Gigantes score 5 runs in the Bottom of the 8th and 5 more in the Bottom of the 9th, capped by a game-winning grand slam by Bryce Eldridge to make it 11-10.
MLB teams down 8 runs or more entering the 8th inning throughout history had lost 4,291 straight games since the Indians rallied from a 10-2 deficit to beat the Rays, 11-10 on May 29, 2009 (Sportradar), forcing the AL franchise to rethink putting the ‘Devil’ back in its nickname.
Pittsburgh was the scene of the next comeback crime where Los Doyers raced out to a 6-0 lead after 6 innings being SP Shohei Ohtani only to see the Pirates score 3 in the Bottom of the 7th and another 5 in the Bottom of the 8th to rally and win the game, 9-8. Ninety-nine percent is not 100%.
So that is enough, right? There are no more big tales of big comebacks for just one night on the 2026 calendar, Juanita? Sorry. Strap the seatbelt on. In the massive NBA Finals Game 4 at Madison Square Garden in NYC, the Knicks were down 29 points in the 2nd Half (81-52 3Q).
SA seemed destined to tie the series 2-2 and make this NBA Finals an instant classic after stealing Games 1 and 2 in the Lone Star State, but sparked by a Wu-Tang Clan halftime show and an electric Big Apple crowd, NY outscored SA 58-30 in the 2nd Half to win 107-106, taking a 3-1 series lead.
The Knicks got as low as a 5.5% chance to win on Polymarket, giving anyone with onions a chance to turn 6 cents into a dollar and watch history unfold. Why? Because 99% is the new 50%. Rinse, Repeat. We live in a New World Order where anything can, and might happen, and do so very fast.
The never-sleep ‘The Digital Age’ is ideal for Ants, Bees, Hummingbirds, and PM traders. The turnaround—witnessed by Taylor Swift, Jerry Seinfeld, Larry David, and other celebs—was the largest comeback in NBA Finals history and why Jalen Brunson will be in the NBA HOF one day.
World Cup Props: Nations to Reach Round of 16
Polymarket has a smart market trading in the World Cup: Nations To Reach the Round of 16 point of the quadrennial Soccer tournament, where there will be 16 ‘Yes’ contracts from different nations that make it to that point that cash in, unlike so many Sports and other Futures markets.
The usual suspects are all trading at 53% or above in this market in France (82%), Spain (79%), England (75%), Portugal (73%), Brazil (72%), Germany (70%), Argentina (69%), Belgium (64%), Switzerland (58%), México (56%), Netherlands (55%), Colombia (55%) and Norway (53%).
Sitting right at 50% to make the Round of 16—in a tournament which now has bloated to 48 teams with 32 luckily making the Knockout Stage—was the United States. Red, White, and You. But that was before the USMNT’s opener with Paraguay on June 12.
Teams the public were giving a lesser chance of making the R16? Türkiye (aka Turkey) at 47%, Canada (44%), Ecuador (42%), Japan (41%), Morocco (41%), Croatia (41%), Uruguay (40%), Ivory Coast (34%), Senegal (33%), Egypt (31%), Czechia (30%), South Korea (30%), Austria (30%), Paraguay (29%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (25%), and Sweden (22%), and Scotland (22%).
Nations with 21% or less love include Algeria (21%), Iran (20%), Australia (18%), Ghana (15%), DR Congo (12%), Tunisia (10%), Saudi Arabia (9%), Panama (8%), New Zealand (8%), Cape Verde (7%), Jordan (5%), Haiti (4%), Iraq (3%), Qatar (3%), and Curaçao (2%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The 16 teams predicted to make the R16 in my small, pea-sized brain were France, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Japan, South Korea, Argentina, Portugal, England, Uruguay, Croatia, Switzerland, Morocco, Norway, Brazil, and Germany.
That means there is a perceived value (for now at least) from my perspective in under-the-radar teams like Ecuador, South Korea, Japan, and Morocco. The key is trading on these games before any upsets may occur. ➤R16 Value Picks: Ecuador, Uruguay, Japan, South Korea, Morocco, Croatia
The Tartan Army Meet the Atlas Lions in WC Friday
2026 FIFA World Cup Group C play resume on Friday with CAF powers Morocco locking horns with UEFA side Scotland at Gillette Stadium (FieldTurf CORE) in Foxborough, Massachusetts (FOX, PEACOCK, TELMUNDO, 6 ET/5 CT/4 MT/3 PT). Upstart Morocco is ranked #7 by FIFA.
Morocco (DWWWD) faced Group C favorites Brazil in its opener while Scotland (WWLLW) met Haiti on June 14 in its World Cup opener.
In the Scotland vs Morocco match at DraftKings Predictions—DraftKing’s baby boy in the PM space—traders have Morocco +100 favorites over Scotland (+335) with a Draw at +257. Morocco -1.5 (‘Yes’) was +225 (No -535) with The Tartan Army of Scotland +1.5 (‘Yes’) at -7333 (No +270).
➤Trading Thoughts: The Atlas Lions sit quietly in the FIFA jungle, ranked #9 where nobody can see them, a CAF rebel neatly tucked amongst the UEFA (72% chance to win WC) and CONMEBOL (22%) monsters roaming the Top 10 for years. So can a team from Africa finally win a World Cup?
In the ‘Which Continent Will Win the World Cup?’ market at Polymarket, Africa is given just a 3% chance—Morocco was still at 1% in the World Cup Winner exchange—to finally win its first World Cup. As much as I respect this team, it’s hard to see the Atlas Lions even in the Final 8. Sorry cats.
As far as this match, Morocco will look for goals through Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid) and rely on the planet’s best RB, Achraf Hakimi, to stifle the Nessies of Scotland, playing in its first WC in 28 years. The Under 2.5 seems solid with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0 scorelines the most probable result(s).
⚽Morocco vs Scotland Picks: Morocco +100, Under 2.5 (Yes) -203
Groups E, F Resume World Cup Play on Saturday
On the 2026 FIFA World Cup schedule for Saturday, June 20 and the last day of Spring, a four-pack including Netherlands facing Sweden (1 ET/10 PT), Manuel Neuer and Germany playing Ivory Coast (4 ET/1 PT), Ecuador meeting Curaçao (5 ET/2 PT), and Tunisia vs Japan (12 ET/9 PT).
D-minded Ecuador—who had eight 0-0 scores in Qualifying—are the traders’ favorites (82%) over Curaçao (7%) with a Draw at 13% in this Group E opener from NRG Stadium (Hellas Matrix Turf with Helix Soft Top) in Houston (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, 8 ET/7 CT/5 PT).
In an opening Group F fixture, the Samurai Blue of Japan (59%) are favorites over Tunisia (17%), with a Draw at 27% for their game at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, Mexico (GrassMaster) on Saturday night (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, FUBO, 12 ET/11 CT/10 MT/9 PT).
➤Trading Thoughts: Ivory Coast may give Germany fits, but FIFA’s #10 team should find a way to win by a goal at BMO Field in Toronto. Ecuador went unbeaten in 2025 and 2026 and allowed only 2 and 3 goals but only one of its games saw 3 goals scored. But newbies Curaçao may be spanked.
Japan, who made the Round of 16 in the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, has talent like rising star Keisuke Gotō, Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad), Ayase Ueda (16 goals), and Junya Itō (15 goals) and may very well be in the R16 again this time. Japan’s currently ranked #18, Tunisia #45 by FIFA.
⚽ Saturday World Cup 3-Side Parlay Pick: Germany—Ecuador—Japan
Spain, Saudi Arabia Face Off in WC on Sunday
The 2026 FIFA World Cup slate on Sunday, June 21 features four matches including tourney co-favorites Spain meeting Saudi Arabia (12 ET/9 PT), Kevin de Bruyne and Belgium playing Iran (3 ET/12 PT), Uruguay meeting Cape Verde (6 ET/3 PT), and New Zealand vs Egypt (9 ET/6 PT).
At Kalshi, Lamine Yamal and Spain are solid favorites (88%) over Saudi Arabia (5%) with a Draw trading at 9% in this Group H opener from Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Hellas Matrix Turf with Helix Soft Top) in Atlanta (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, FUBO, 12 ET/11 CT/9 PT).
In Sunday’s other Group H fixture, Uruguay (69%) is favored over first-timers Cape Verde, aka Cabo Verde (12%), with a Draw at 21% for their game at Hard Rock Stadium (HERO Hybrid Grass) in Miami Gardens, Florida (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, FUBO, 6 ET/5 CT/3 PT).
➤Trading Thoughts: Spain are deserved WC co-favorites with La Roja (The Red One) always playing a tight Tiki-taka passing and ball possession style which has always served this UEFA giant well. With Yamal, Modri, Mikel Oyarzabal, Pedri, and Ferran Torres, Spain may win this game to-nil.
Uruguay won the first-ever WC and although La Celeste (The Sky Blue) may not be as strong as previous national teams (#16 FIFA Ranking) on this hot first night of Summer, Uruguay will make the Knockout Stage and could very well upset Spain and win this Group H (20¢, Polymarket).
⚽ Sunday World Cup 3-Side Parlay Pick: Spain -1.5—Belgium -1.5—Uruguay -1.5
Argentina, France Both in WC Action on Monday
There are four matches on the 2026 FIFA World Cup schedule on Monday, June 22, including defending champions Argentina facing Austria (1 ET/10 PT), France playing Iraq (5 ET/2 PT), Norway meeting Senegal (8 ET/5 PT), and Jordan colliding with Algeria (11 ET/8 PT).
At Kalshi, Lionel Messi and Argentina are solid favorites (63%) over Austria (15%) with a Draw trading at 24% in this Group J match from AT&T Stadium (Hellas Matrix Turf with Helix Soft Top) in Arlington, Texas (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, FUBO, 1 ET/12 CT/10 PT).
Traders like UEFA heavyweights France (89%) to cruise over Iraq (3.2%) with a Draw at 9% for their Group I affair at Lincoln Financial Field (HERO Hybrid Grass) in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Monday afternoon (FOX, FOX ONE, PEACOCK, TELEMUNDO, FUBO, 5 ET/4 CT/3 MT/2 PT).
➤Trading Thoughts: This will be the first real meeting between Argentina and Österreichische Fußballnationalmannschaft outside of two Friendlies (1980, 1990). With Messi, Alvarez, and Lautaro Martínez, La Albiceleste has firepower and an elite Goalkeeper in Emiliano Martínez.
At the Linc, expect Les Bleus to tame the Lions of Mesopotamia, scoring 5-6 with studs like Doué, Mbappé, Olise, Dembélé, and Barcola. France -2.5 goals was given a 46% (46¢) chance by traders at Kalshi—a bargain and one of our 12 Sides picks in our The Prediction Report World Cup edition.
⚽ Monday World Cup 3-Side Parlay Pick: Argentina—France—Algeria
➠ In the next issue of The Prediction Report, we’ll focus on the 2026 NBA Draft, a Morgan Stanley report saying Kalshi makes up 10% of the sports betting market, handicap the World Cup Name the Final prop, and have previews and picks for Group Stage matches from Tuesday to Friday including a look of the USMNT-Türkiye game on Thursday.