The best game in NFL Week 5 is between QB Brock Purdy and the 49ers (4-0, 1-0 on Road) and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Super Bowl champion Seahawks (3-1, 2-0 at Home) from Lumen Field (FieldTurf CORE) in Seattle on Sunday afternoon (FOX, 4:25 EDT/3:25 CDT/1:25 PDT).​

These might be the league's best two teams, with NFC West counterparts Los Angeles also likely in the top seven teams in the NFL a month in. The Seahawks suffered a tough injury to starting QB Sam Darnold, but saw backup Drew Lock perform admirably for 2 games in his stead.​

In the San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks game at Novig, traders liked the Seahawks (61%) over the 49ers (39%) on October 8. The point spread was Seattle -3 (Total: 45.5).

🧪Trading Thoughts: Respect can’t be bought, and I want you to know I am not a fan of the Niners or Seahawks. “Fan” is short for fanatic. If I were a fanatic? It would’ve been for the Bears back in the day when a chubby man named William “The Refrigerator” Perry scored a TD in a SB.

In the last 10 meetings, San Francisco is a profitable 7-2 SU (6-4-0 ATS), with RB Christian McCaffrey and the Niners, despite Seattle winning the last 2 meetings last season. The Under is 6-4-0 over that span, with 3 of the last 4 played in the Emerald City going Over (44, 50, 30, 47).

SF (30.5 PPG, #2) started the new NFL season off nicely with a win over the Rams Down Under in Australia (27-7), and WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, and the 49ers won by 20, 22, and 6 in beating the Rams. Dolphins, and Cardinals behind some very strong defense (16.0 PPG, #3).

Seattle (26.3 PPG, T-#10) started with two wins (NE, AZ) before a shock loss (WASH), and is learning to win without Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III (KC) and its starting QB (Darnold). Rookie RB Jadarian Price (ND) and QB Lock's experience is invaluable.

This is a tough game to pick from past or current data, and a turnover could change who wins. The 12th Man zombies will be in rare form, pulling on the Seahawks D (18.3 PPG, #5). Both should score at least 21 points, but this one may be better off watched than traded on or bet.

🏈NFL Week 5 Sunday 49ers-Seahawks Pick: None

Over one year and some 112 issues and half a million words (and numbers of course) ago, this market was one of the first we ever handicapped and wrote about here at The Prediction Report where all opinions and narratives are my own until you steal them and make them yours.​

A year ago, when we were still young, Maria Corina Machado won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy” in her beloved South American nation.​

But this Venezuelan angel and peace promoter suddenly realized that nothing is out of reach for the narcissistic Orange US President intent on stealing, invading, disrespecting, and renaming everything on Mother Earth. Give me that Nobel Peace Prize, you undeserving witch. I am a man.​

I have solved 11 wars in 11 minutes while not using the bathroom, while consuming 11 Quarter Pounders with Cheese and a Diet Coke, and kidnapping your old corrupt president Maduro, so chop-chop, hand over the award, Machado, or we will be renaming Venezuela ‘Trumpezuela.’​

In the high-volume ($25,215,478, October 1) Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 market at Polymarket, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) led (11.3%), followed by Save the Children (8.4%) and the International Court of Justice (5.88%). Bless all these organizations.​

Following were the Committee to Protect Journalists (6%), Sara Al-Saqqa (5%), UNRWA (4%), Yulia Navalnaya (4%), Reporters Without Borders (4%), Mark Carney (2%), Hussam Abu Safiya (2%), and Chow Hang-tun (2%).​

The ICRC, Tamin bin Hamad Al Thani, Volodymyr Zelensky, Pope Leo XIV, Greta Thunberg, World Central Kitchen, Donald Trump, Greta Thunberg, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and António Guterres all checked in with just a 1% chance.

🌐2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner Pick: Mark Carney, Yes 3.9¢

The CFTC is reportedly investigating ~25 smaller trades on Kalshi by former Representative Adam Kinzinger, including trades on a prediction market about a presidential pardon given to the Illinois Republican on January 20, 2025, by outgoing US President Joe Biden.​

Regulators are looking into the Kalshi-flagged trades from December 2024 and January 2025, which amounted to less than $1,000 and profited $823. At the time, the now 42-year-old Kinzinger made the trades as a private citizen, no longer in office or running for anything.​

Kinzinger, a Kankakee native, denied any wrongdoing in the matter, contending he knew nothing about Biden’s preemptive pardon and had no communications with the White House. He traded on his own pardon and on Biden issuing pardons but says he mostly lost money on the exchange.​

Kinzinger, a graduate of Illinois State University and Air Force pilot, criticized Kalshi in a Substack post in November 2025, calling the popular prediction market a “ticking time bomb.” Kinzinger said the CFTC has not contacted him and that he knew what he was doing.​

“I had read [the] rules of Kalshi before making wagers, and general prohibitions were that you could not work for a source agency, … influence its outcome, or have non-public information about it. I felt confident in this because I had never had a conversation with anyone about [pardons], much less anyone anywhere near the White House,” Kinzinger said.​

Kinzinger served the Land of Lincoln in the US House of Representatives in the 11th district (2011-2013) and 16th district (2013-2023) and admitted in an interview with CNN’s Marshall Cohen, “It was a dumb bet.”

ABC’s Reality TV hit The Bachelorette saw Season 22 canceled before the season even started back in March. Still, looking at the Bachelorette Season 22 Winner at Polymarket, it seems the market still hasn’t been resolved despite airing 6 months ago and having $2.5 in volume held hostage?​

Taylor Frankie Hall (The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives) was the show’s Bachelorette, but after TMZ aired a video (below) from a disturbing domestic dispute between her and ex-boyfriend, Dakota Mortensen, ABC’s parent company Disney decided to shelve the season on March 19. 2026.​

Currently, ABC has no plans to air or release this season. But what about Polymarket (not Polymarket US) and a resolution? The leading choice was ‘Other (Season Cancelled)’ at 92%, with $7,374 in volume. Hopefully, this gets resolved and the season never sees the light of day.​

Another former Pac-12, now Big Ten matchup sees RB Wayne Knight (445 rushing yards, 9 TD) and upstart #21 UCLA (4-0, 2-0 Big Ten) playing #13 Oregon (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) at scenic Autzen Stadium (FieldTurf) in Eugene, Oregon on Saturday afternoon (CBS, 3:30 ET/2:30 CT/12:30 PT).​

Both teams are still in the running to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. Still, a loss here for the Ducks, who lost QB Dante Moore to an injury in a Week 4 win at USC, would be brutal after Oregon already fell to unranked Oklahoma State at Stillwater (38-31) in NCAAF Week 2.​

Host Oregon (78%) is the overwhelming choice among traders at Kalshi in the UCLA vs. Oregon contest, with UCLA (22%) a live underdog and ‘Yes’ contracts at 22 cents (October 8) with over $332K in heavy volume. You know when they say. Oregon First Half (78%) was at the same price.

🧪Trading Thoughts: Bruins QB Nico Iamaleava left Tennessee for the Golden State, and he and UCLA (44.8 PPG, T-#7) have been a pleasant surprise so far this 2026 NCAAF season, rushing to success (281.5 YPG, #5) and also playing some very good D (18.8 PPG, T-#38) over in Westwood.

But winning at Autzen is always a hard thing for the visiting school. Since 2020, Oregon is 39-3 (93%) at home, losing only to eventual national champions Indiana (2025), rivals Washington (2022), and Utah (2021). Can UCLA and Knight run wild in Bigfootville? This will be a fun one.

With #5 Ohio State (November 7), Michigan (November 14), and rivals Washington (November 28) still on the schedule, the pressure is on the Ducks, and games against Nebraska, Northwestern Illinois, and Michigan State will also prove challenging.

Oregon is 9-1 SU in the last 10 series meetings—winning the last 5 straight (2018-2024)—but 4-8-0 ATS with the Over, 6-3-1 and cashing in 4 of the last 5, and the Over is 3-0-0 last 3 straight at Autzen (75, 73, 63). The last meeting was in 2024 (ORE 34 UCLA 13), and went Under (54.5).

🏈NCAAF Week 6 Saturday Totals Pick: UCLA-Oregon Over 58.5, Yes 52¢

No team has participated in the NFL’s international games more than the Jaguars (14), and in NFL Week 4, QB Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville (3-1) will play Philadelphia (2-3) from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (TurfNation) in North London, England (NFL Network, 9:30 EDT/6:30 PDT).​

The Jaguars have played in every season of the NFL London Games history since 2013—except for the COVID-19 year in 2020—and Jacksonville has gone 7-7-0, 10 in historic Wembley Stadium (5-6-0), and 4 in the New White Hart Lane Stadium (2-1-0).​

At the sports-oriented prediction market Novig, QB Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia (24%) are the big underdogs in Londontown, with Jacksonville (76%) the favorites in an interconference gridiron tea party across the pond, with the Point Spread (Jaguars minus) 7.5 and the Total trading at 41.5.

🧪Trading Thoughts: When the international games in the NFL kick off at 9:30 EDT, we enjoy over 12 hours of NFL football on select Sundays, although having church and football at the same time seems sacrilegious, as we all know God doesn’t like sports but likes shopping for brown sandals.

The Eagles have looked average this season, with the loss at Chicago to a QB (Case Keenum) who hadn’t played in 1,009 days exposing a reality: maybe the whole NFC East sucks this year. The Jaguars have looked better than the Eagles and may now be in the top 10 NFL teams.

Philadelphia is 2-0-0 in international games and isn't as familiar with Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as Jacksonville, but NFL rosters change, and this is only a slight edge. Both will want to avoid a loss for obvious reasons, and the lean here is to a low-scoring game and the Under 45.5.

🏈NFL Week 4 Sunday London Games Totals Pick: Jaguars-Eagles Under 41.5

NFL Week 5 sees one of the best rivalries in sports renewed when QB Jordan Love and the Packers (2-2, 0-1 at Home) welcome the Bears (3-1, 1-0 on Road) to Lambeau Field (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Green Bay, Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon (FOX, 1 EDT/12 CDT/10 PDT).​

The NFL flexed this NFC North game out of the 4:25 p.m. (EDT) slot after Chicago starting QB Caleb Williams got injured, making the NFC West showdown between the 49ers and Seahawks the main game to air on FOX in that coveted later time period. Money, it’s a hit.​

At up-and-coming Sports-intent prediction market Novig—which is seeking a new $2 billion round of funding according to Front Office Sports—and in the Bears vs. Packers exchange, traders liked the Bears (53%) over the Packers (47%), with the point spread seeing Chicago -2.5 (45.5).​

🧪Trading Thoughts: The Cheeseheads will need this game more than Chicago, in a division where anything can happen and still will. The problem for the Pack? The offensive line is a mess; there is no great roster of WRs to throw to now, and many key players are gone or injured for GB.​

Star Edge Micah Parsons (Knee) and WR Jayden Reed (Neck, out season) are hurt, while the NFL suspended RB Josh Jacobs for being a bad boy. And players like WR Romeo Doubs (NE), DE Rashan Gary (DAL), and LB Quay Walker (LV) no longer ride little bikes to Packers practices.​

Over the last 10 meetings, RB D’Andre Swift and Chicago are 3-7-0 SU and 3-5-1 ATS, but the Bears won the money in both meetings in the 2025-26 NFL RS by 6 (OT) and 3. The Packers haven’t covered ATS in this series (0-4-1) since January 7, 2024 (W5 consecutive ATS into).​

This may be a Tyson Bagent vs. Jordan Love reality in Brown County. If so, the under may be worth consideration, and even though the tundra may not be frozen yet, we can expect colder temps in GB, with AccuWeather forecasting 60-63° F game-time temperatures with some Wind (11 mph).

🏈NFL Week 5 Sunday Side Pick: Chicago Bears -1.5 (Novig)

➠”n the next issue of The Prediction Report, we will headline the start of MLB’s ALCS and NLCS series, look at Kalshi and Novig holding new funding rounds, look at the weekly Earnings report calendar with the big banks reporting on Tuesday, do a quick wrap of the biggest NCAAF Saturday of the season next week with a #3 ND at #10 BYU preview, and look at the Rams at Bills game on Monday Night Football.”