The best patch of the 2025 NCAA Division I FBS football season is upon us with the College Football Playoff (CFP) Quarterfinal round which will see the eight remaining teams play four games at neutral sites in the four classic Bowl games—the Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Cotton.
These games on Friday and Saturday will be heavily traded and watched and leave us with a final four like the Big Dance in March Madness. With these eight, Oregon-Texas Tech, Alabama-Indiana, Ole Miss-Georgia, and Miami (FLA)-Ohio State, the Semifinals and Championship will be epic.
Combined, these eight teams are 95-10 with 6 of those 10 losses coming to a team still alive in the CFP: Ohio State and Oregon to Indiana; Alabama to Georgia and Oklahoma; Ole Miss to Georgia; and Georgia to Alabama. And if the Hoosiers and Ducks win, they will meet again in the Semifinals.
At Polymarket in the College Football Champion 2026 market, traders favor defending national champs Ohio State (32%) to repeat, followed by unbeaten and #1-ranked Indiana (20%), Georgia (16%), Oregon (12%), Texas Tech (9%), Alabama (6%), Ole Miss (4%), and Miami-Florida (3%).
➤Trading Thoughts: Defense wins championships and we have four of the top five scoring Defenses (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech, Miami) still alive with the Hoosiers, Red Raiders, Rebels, and Ducks all looking to bring home the first football national title in their school’s histories.
For me, just three teams can win this, the Buckeyes, Hoosiers, and Red Raiders. If TT and IU win, they face each other and the Hoosiers may have to try to beat Oregon again, so Fernando Mendoza and top-ranked Indiana have a brutal path. All eight do at this point in the season.
Ohio State will need to get by Miami on Friday night and then beat the winner of the Ole Miss-Georgia game in the Fiesta Bowl to get to the Championship where a rematch with the Hoosiers may await. Seven of the eight here won their last game, so backing the team motivated by a loss (to IU) in their last game seems like the psychological edge. Trading Pick: Ohio State, Yes 32¢
How Many Gold Cards Will Trump Sell in 2025?
In September, US President Donald Trump announced the creation of The Gold Card, a special visa program in the US where those wealthy enough to buy the card—around $1 million—get a new pathway to residency hoping to keep international students in the US after graduation.
With none sold and the calendar quickly ticking the days of 2025 away, traders are behind the 0 (Gold Cards sold) at 99% with 1-100 (1%) the only other trading category receiving more than 1% of the overall volume at Polymarket.
This is no doubt one of those markets we will see re-emerge in 2026 with much different trading numbers in January as 12 months to go on the calendar although Trump Years seems like dog years in a way and may age us seven years in one orbit around the Sun.
This seems like a tricky market with traders locked in on ‘0’ and the Trump administration claiming in March 2025 it had already sold $1.3 billion in these “magic visa cards.” The numbers in December claimed a more modest 1,000 cards sold at $5 million, but until independent verification it seems the masses may collect on the zero. These are prediction markets.
Who knows what happens but always read the rules and trade with a healthy skepticism. This theoretically could end in the 1K-2.5K range with ‘Yes’ (0.5¢) traders turning less than a penny into a dollar. But verifying any numbers in the last week of any calendar year is problematic.
Best Supporting Actor Oscars Winner Category a Toss-up?
The race for the Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards will be a close on if traders at Polymarket are right. As 2025 is coming to an end, traders at the popular prediction market were backing three main actors to win the award at the Oscars on the Ides of March.
Leading is Swedish actor Stellan Skarsgård (37%) for his role in the Norwegian film Sentimental Value (Affeksjonsverdi) where he plays Gustav Borg. Skarsgård has already won the Best Supporting Actor award in 2019 in the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for his role in HBO’s Chernobyl.
A close second is Benicio del Toro (30%) for his role as Sensei in One Battle After Another by Paul Thomas Anderson. The 58-year-old Puerto Rican icon has already won awards for that role from the NYCC and NBR.
Also in the running is American legend Sean Penn (28%) for his role in the same film as del Toro—One Battle After Another—and the 65-year-old Santa Monica, California native has already won major awards from the Screen Awards and the Florida Film Critics Circle.
➤Trading Thoughts: The 98th Academy Awards will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on Sunday, March 15, 2026 (ABC, Hulu, 7 EDT/6 CDT/4 PDT) and will again be hosted by Conan O’Brien. Official Oscars nominations will be announced on January 22.
This market is a toss-up and a good chance for traders to still get some early positions. Paul Mescat (4%) was the fourth-highest actor predicted to win this award in late December, but it seems one of these three will get the little statuette. Trading Pick: Benico del Toro, Yes 30¢
Will US Climber Alex Honnold Free Solo Taipei 101?
American rock climber Alex Honnold is scheduled to try to free solo climb (without ropes or protective equipment) the Taipei 101—the tallest building in the city of Taiwan—in Taipei on a live Netflix stream (Skyscraper Live) on January 23, 2026 (8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
Traders at Polymarket were giving the 40-year-old Californian a 79% chance of reaching the spire on Christmas Eve, a month before the scheduled feat. Honnold came to fame in 2017 when he became the first person to ever scale El Capitan (7573’) in Yosemite National Park.
Berkeley-dropout Honnold also won the Piolet d’Or in alpine climbing in 2025 with Tommy Caldwell in Patagonia.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Taipei 101 (1,667’) was the tallest building in the world before being topped by the Burj Khalifa (2717’) in Dubai in 2004. It would be scary trading on a dude climbing with no equipment, no matter how the ‘Yes-No’ outcome would be determined. Trading Pick: None
Polymarket Serving Up Players Winter Transfer Market
The Winter Transfer period is coming in Soccer for the major European leagues (January 1- February 2, 2026) and already some relatively big names have made deals to move in the window like Niclas Füllkrug (West Ham) to AC Milan and Endrick (Real Madrid) to Lyon on loan deals.
At Polymarket, you can actually trade (‘Yes-No’) on if specific players will move in the coming Transfer Window next month with Füllkrug and Endrick already near ‘Yes’ resolutions.
Other players being traded at more than a 60% chance of signing with new clubs include Antoine Semenyo (95%)—a target of MUFC and noisy neighbors MCFC—veteran Sergio Ramos (80%), RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner (71%), Rúben Neves (66%), and Barça GK Marc-André ter Stegen (92%).
➤Trading Thoughts: The ‘Yes’ prices for all the bigger players are well beyond the point of a smart trade, with the constant rumors and news that comes with European pro Soccer giving investors all the confidence they needed to back moves from these players. And the list is long.
With that in mind, and knowing you may want a pick from The Prediction Report to try and profit from, taking a chance on Brazilian forward Richarlison (Tottenham Hotspur) leaving Spurs and North London for a club like Flamengo in Brazil makes sense. Trading Pick: Richarlison, Yes 50¢
2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner
The highlight of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy in February will be the Men’s Ice Hockey Gold Medal Game from the Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena on Sunday, February 22, 2026 (8:10 am EST/5:10 am PST) with North American rivals Canada and the USA expected to be in the game.
At Polymarket, sports fans can trade on the 2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner and it is those two—Canada (42%) and the USA (28%)—dominating the ‘Yes’ contracts followed by Sweden (14%), Finland (9%), the Czech Republic (6%), and Switzerland (4%).
Longshots to win the Gold medal on the frozen water in the land that gave us pizza are Slovakia (3%), Germany (2%), Latvia (1%), and Denmark (1%) with and host nation Italy (<1%) with the country that hosted the last Summer Olympics and France both registering <1%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Canadians are still mad about no Stanley Cup since the invention of the wheel, so expect Team Canada Executive Director Wayne Gretzky to have his bunch intent at winning nothing but a Gold in Italy. And with skaters like Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Nathan Mackinnon, and G Jordan Binnington, opponents will definitely have their work cut out for them.
The USA, Sweden, and Finland all have realistic shots at winning the Gold medal here this Winter—Finland beat the ROC for the Gold in 2022—but team Canada should have the deepest roster in Italy with three lines that can score goals. Trading Pick: Canada, Yes 42¢
Knicks in SA to Face the Red-Hot Spurs on Wednesday
Victor Wembayama and the Spurs (23-8, 11-3 Home) welcome Jalen Brunson and the Knicks
(22-9, 6-7 Road) to the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas for an interconference matchup on NYE (NBA League Pass, MSG, FanDuel Sports Network Southwest, 7 EST/6 CST/4 PST).
At the Polymarket exchange, traders are behind the host Spurs (59%) over the Knicks (41%) in the game winner market. San Antonio has been very impressive of late, humbling SGA and the defending NBA champion Thunder both at home in San Antonio and on the road in Oklahoma City.
➤Trading Thoughts: When these two met at Madison Square Garden in the Big Apple earlier this NBA Regular Season, the Knickerbockers won 124-113 in a game the hosts trailed most of the way until a 35-19 New York 4th Quarter. Seven Spurs and seven Knicks scored in double-figures.
With 237 points scored at NY and 14 players with at least 10 points, it’s hard to see a low-scoring game here in the Lone State State, but check the injury reports as Wemby (calf), Brunson, and OG Anunoby were all nursing hurts on Christmas Eve. Trading Pick: Over Spurs Game Winner 61¢
Texas, Michigan Play in Cheez-It Citrus Bowl on Wednesday
Both #18 Michigan (9-3) and #13 Texas (9-3) expected better seasons, but now all the Wolverines and Longhorns can hope for is a win in their last game, the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium (AstroTurf RootZone 3D3) in Orlando on Wednesday night (ABC, 3 EST/2 CST/12 PST).
College Football traders at Kalshi like SEC powerhouse Texas (72%) over 2023 national champions Michigan (28%) by a big margin with Texas wins by over 7.5 points at 51% and more than 49.5 points scored at 45%. The spread increased after Wolverines HC Sherrone Moore was arrested.
➤Trading Thoughts: Bowl games can be hard to handicap, so use the Opt-Out Tracker which shows us a large number of key Wolverines and Longhorns won’t even be suiting up for this game—something that happens in the age of NIL and the Transfer Portal and not making the CFP.
Michigan is 24-29 in Bowl games while Texas is 32-27-2. Head-to-head, the Longhorns lead the all-time series, 2-0, but the three big things here are Michigan and its HC drama—it hired Kyle Whittingham—how many players won’t be participating, and the thought neither cares about winning Trading Pick: None
CFP Quarters Open Up Friday Night with Miami-Ohio State
On Friday night, the first of four classic CFP Quarterfinal games kicks off with the defending national champs and #2 Ohio State (12-1) playing #10 Miami [FLA] (11-2) in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic on New Year’s Day from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (ESPN, 7:30 EST/6:30 CST/4:30 PST).
The winner of this game played on the speedy Hellas Matrix Turf with Helix Soft Top at Jerryworld will move on to the 2026 CFP Semifinals and play the winner of the Ole Miss-Georgia (played Saturday) in the 2026 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Tempe, Arizona on January 8.
In CFP First Round play, Miami (FLA) defeated Texas A&M, 10-3 at Kyle Field in a defensive battle to earn this spot in the Quarterfinals. At Kalshi, Ohio State (75%) is the big favorite to win over Miami (FLA) (25%) with OSU wins by over 9.5 points at 47% and Over 42.5 points scored at 48%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The Buckeyes have the best Defense in FBS (8.2 PPG) and HC Ryan Day has one of the best group of WRs and best DLs in college and QB Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes will be in a foul mood after losing to now #1 Indiana in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.
Here, expect another defensive chess match, as the Hurricanes also have one of the best DLs in FBS and have stars like Rueben Bain Jr and a veteran QB in Carson Beck protected by a great OL led by Francis Mauioga. Points should be very scarce. Trading Pick: Over 42.5 points, No 54¢
Upstart TT Faces Oregon in CFP Quarters on Saturday
On Saturday, the first of three CFP Quarterfinals sees #4 Texas Tech (12-1) colliding with #5 Oregon (12-1) in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida early on Saturday (ESPN, 12 EST/11 CST/9 PST).
The winner of this game played on Tifway 419 Bermuda Grass advances to the 2026 CFP Semifinals and faces the winner of the Indiana-Alabama game (played immediately after) in the second-to-last game of the FBS season, the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
In CFP First Round play, Oregon routed G5 school #12 James Madison in Eugene, 51-34 to earn this meeting with the Red Raiders. At Kalshi, Oregon (53%) is the traders choice over Texas Tech (47%) with Oregon wins by over 2.5 points at 51% and Over 52.5 points scored at 45%.
➤Trading Thoughts: The big question here will be can LB extraordinaire Jacob Rodriguez and the Red Raiders vaunted Defense (10.9 PPG, #3) stop QB Dante Moore and the Ducks waterbug Offense (39.3 PPG, #9) on the speedy turf in Jerryworld? And if so, for how long?
Turnovers may be the difference here, QB Behren Morton and Texas Tech can also score (42.5 PPG, #3) and that balance makes this Prediction Market underdog, the Red Raiders, worth a look in this can’t-miss Saturday morning firestarter. Trading Pick: Texas Tech Game Winner, Yes 47¢
Alabama, Indiana Meet For First Time Ever in CFP Quarters
The Grandaddy of Them All, the 2026 Rose Bowl, lives up to its billing with #1 Indiana (13-0) facing #9 Alabama (11-3) in the CFP Quarterfinal on New Year’s Day from the historic Rose Bowl (Bermuda Grass) in Pasadena, California on Saturday afternoon (ESPN, 4 EST/3 CST/1 PST).
The winner of this game moves on to the CFP Semifinals and will play the winner of the Texas-Tech-Oregon showdown (played right before) in the 2026 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on January 9, 2026 in the second-to-last game of the FBS season.
In the CFP First Round, Alabama eliminated #8 Oklahoma in Norman, 34-24 to earn this first-ever meeting with the undefeated Hoosiers. At Kalshi, Indiana (68%) is the big favorite of traders over Alabama (32%) with Indiana wins by over 6.5 points at 51% and Over 48.5 points scored at 51%.
➤Trading Thoughts: Indiana is led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, but the Hoosiers are more than just their QB and have a great Defense (10.8 PPG, #2), incredible WRs, a solid rushing attack, good special teams, and the best Head Coach in the land in Curt Cignetti.
With three losses, some say the Crimson Tide don’t deserve to be here, but Alabama has found a way to win when it has had to, including in its CFP opener against a team that had already beaten them. Any team with stud WR Omar Cooper Jr (11 TD) is scary good. Trading Pick: Indiana Wins By Over 6.5 points, Yes 51¢
SEC Foes Ole Miss, Georgia Meet Again in the CFP Quarters
The Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff wraps up on Saturday night with this insane SEC matchup between #6 Ole Miss (12-1) and #3 Georgia (12-1) in the 2026 Allstate Sugar Bowl from the Caesars Superdome (Turf Nation S5) in New Orleans, Louisiana (ESPN, 8 EST/7 CST/5 PST).
The winner of this New Year’s Day game will advance to the CFP Semifinals and face the winner of the Miami (FLA)-Ohio State game from earlier in the day. In the First Round of the CFP, Ole Miss dismissed G5 qualifiers and #11 Tulane, 41-10 at home in Oxford, Mississippi on December 20.
CFP traders at Kalshi like QB Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs here (68%) over the Rebels (32%)—who saw Head Coach Lane Kiffin leave before the CFP—with Georgia wins by over 6.5 points at 51% and the Over 56.5 points scored trading at 46%.
➤Trading Thoughts: When these two met in the Regular Season in Athens, Georgia, the Dawgs won 43-35 as the hosts churned out 34 first downs and had 15 minutes more Time of Possession than Ole Miss, handing the then-#5 Rebels their first (and still only) loss.
Lifetime, Georgia is 34-14-1 vs Ole Miss and the Bulldogs are 8-2 over the last 10 meetings. Georgia has played a little better every week leading up to this one and the Dawgs will be rested. Who’s a good boy? Trading Pick: Georgia Game Winner, Yes 70¢
